Reading the bassline: how well do moisture-sensitive tree rings track decadal variability?
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This document discusses research analyzing tree ring data to determine how well tree rings track decadal climate variability. It notes that tree rings may provide good or poor proxies for decadal patterns depending on their correlation with winter precipitation and decadal patterns versus being just moisture sensitive. The research also examines the variance explained by climate patterns versus proxies and reconstructions, and notes the challenges of extracting clear decadal signals due to noisy proxy data and narrowband climate patterns.
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Reading the bassline: how well do moisture-sensitive tree rings track decadal variability?
- 1. reading the BASS LINE How well do moisture-sensitive tree rings track decadal variability?
- 2. HIGHexplained variance LOWexplained variance robust decadal proxies need to verify
- 5. ~10 yrvariability ~100 yrobservations = low ‘n’
- 7. Mean squared coherence Coherence between the NADA and the PDO at low (7yr+) frequencies
- 8. How well do moisture-sensitive tree rings track decadal variability?
- 11. Decadal ‘hotspots’ in winter precipitation 0% 10% 20% 30% variance Ault and St. George, 2010
- 12. highly energetic
- 17. well resolved
- 18. Sacramento-San Joaquin streamflow anomaly (m3/s)Precipitation anomaly (mm) Levee failure records from Florsheim and Dettinger, GRL, 2007
- 19. Levee failure records from Florsheim and Dettinger, GRL, 2007 Precipitation anomaly (mm) Sacramento-San Joaquin streamflow anomaly (m3/s)
- 22. correlation with winter precipitation correlation with decadal pa ern “moisture-sensitive”
- 23. correlation with winter precipitation correlation with decadal pa ern “moisture-sensitive” good decadal proxies
- 25. correlation with winter precipitation correlation with decadal pa ern “moisture-sensitive”
- 26. correlation with winter precipitation correlation with decadal pa ern poor decadal proxies “moisture-sensitive”
- 30. PATTERN ~30%variance climate variable PROXY ~50%variance climate variable * narrowband pattern noisy proxy murky signals PATTERN ~15%variance reconstruction
- 34. 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year (A.D.) -10 -5 0 5 10 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 PDSI Ringwidth drought-sensitive tree-ring records Eastern Canadian Rockies St. George et al., (2009), Journal of Climate
- 35. LOWfrequency
- 36. St. George et al., The Holocene, 2010 Seasonal precipitation ‘bias’ of NADA
- 37. HIGHexplained variance LOWexplained variance robust decadal proxies need to verify