Project Space Evaders Proposes Debris Responsibility Score to Reduce Space Collisions
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Project Space Evaders Proposes Debris Responsibility Score to Reduce Space Collisions
- 1. Project “Steer Clear” 102 Total Interviews Challenge: How can we stop space collisions from making space unusable? Team Space Evaders Our plan: New method to evaluate debris creation. Sponsor: Amber Charlesworth, Office of Space and Advanced Technology
- 2. Kate Boudreau Junior, Biomedical Computation boudreau.kate@gmail.com Background: Bioinformatic research Expertise: Biocomputation Tyler Dammann Junior, Computer Science tylerdammann@gmail.com Background: Software, computer science Expertise: Technology, data Dave Gabler Masters, Business/ Public Policy davesgabler@gmail.com Background: Air Force, business Expertise: Strategy, aerospace, management Matthew Kaseman Freshman, Aerospace Engineering kaseman.matt@gmail.com Background: Army, gov’t contracting Expertise: Engineering implementation Team Space Evaders
- 3. Increasing # of satellites Space debris threatens critical infrastructure (GPS, communications, etc) The Challenge Increasing collisions More debris
- 4. Interviewed over 100 stakeholders Mapped the status quo Built simple prototypes to test our ideas Lean methodology
- 5. First industry process map Focused on data flow in the collision avoidance system
- 6. The Path to Collisions Tracking Modeling Warnings Response “This will be an eye-opener to many people!” - Amber, State Department
- 7. Original Hypotheses - Tracking 1) Collision warnings based on estimates only GPS position Observed position We can improve avoidance capability through: - Communication - Data Sharing 2) Satellites know precisely where they are Solution!
- 8. We tested many ideas Worldwide Operator phone book GPS data-sharing Define debris size/shape (helps prediction accuracy) Small satellite ID hardware
- 9. Answer #1: This is a small part of the problem
- 10. Answer #2: Satellite operator decision matrix Warning? Maneuver? < 1% chanceY N N Y < .01% chance < .01% chance < 1% chance but now YOU caused it < 1% chance “My chances are no better if I move, so why would I assume the responsibility?” - Commercial Satellite operator
- 11. Data sharing isn’t the problem - technical uncertainty makes the whole process unreliable The underlying problem? Collision warnings are only “in the ballpark” Operators need MUCH more detail
- 12. “This insight will frame our approach to this problem and has given us a new way forward with the international community” - Deputy Assistant Secretary
- 13. The Path to Collisions Tracking Modeling Warnings Response Mission Planning
- 14. Too much decentralized, limited accountability decision-making Space as a Tragedy of the Commons Cost/schedule limitations can prevent debris mitigation efforts Vague debris mitigation standards = significant design leeway
- 15. Fix the Commons Problem Make choices and consequences transparent and accountable Debris Responsibility Score
- 16. Final MVP: Debris Responsibility Score Time in Space Size of Object Congestion of Orbit Risk of On-Orbit BreakupPlanned Mission Debris
- 17. “If you can show me it works, I would use it.” -U.S. Government Regulator “This needs to be presented at the next satellite operators conference” -International satellite operator “I’ve wanted to do this myself for years!” -Leading industry expert/journalist
- 19. Deployment: Expected Use Cases NGO monitors tradable credits international policy
- 20. Summary Instead of avoiding as many debris items as operators choose to put in space... ...Our rating will work to prevent new debris from getting there at all