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Team
Embargo.NK
Lessons Learned
Refined Problem:
“Curtail the advantage
generated by theft of
cryptocurrencies to exercise
maximum pressure on North
Korea.”
Original Problem:
“Use the assets at DoD
disposal to disincentivize
private actors from aiding
North Korea.”
101
Interviews
David
Cornell
Francesca
Ginexi
John
Preis
Antoni
Rytel
Sponsor
Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD)
We interviewed over 100 stakeholders
Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward
NK Negotiation
Team
NK State Revenue and Resources
NK Regime
Decision Makers
Illicit Refined
Fuel Smugglers
NK Oil Tankers
East Asian Sea
Maritime Smuggling
Networks
Chinese
Crude Oil
Remittances
from NK
workers
abroad
Criminal
Activity out of
Embassies
Cybercrime
and Bitcoin
mining
Other State actors
We mapped the sanctions enforcement ecosystem
Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward
NK Negotiation
Team
NK State Revenue and Resources
NK Regime
Decision Makers
Illicit Refined
Fuel Smugglers
NK Oil Tankers
East Asian Sea
Maritime Smuggling
Networks
Chinese
Crude Oil
Remittances
from NK
workers
abroad
Criminal
Activity out of
Embassies
Cybercrime
and Bitcoin
mining
Other State actors
We mapped the sanctions enforcement ecosystem
US
Negotiation
Team
DoD Sanctions Enforcement Policy
Team
Maritime AssetsIntelligence
Assets
Flag and Port
State Enforcement
International
Partners
State Department
White House Policy
Team
UNSC
Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward
US
Negotiation
Team
NK
Negotiation
Team
DoD Sanctions Enforcement Policy Team
Maritime AssetsIntelligence Assets
Flag and Port State
Enforcement
NK State Revenue and Resources
NK Regime
Decision Makers
International Partners
State Department
White House Policy
Team
UNSC
Illicit Refined
Fuel
Smugglers
NK Oil Tankers
East Asian Sea
Maritime Smuggling
Networks
Chinese
Crude Oil
Remittances
from NK
workers
abroad
Criminal
Activity out of
Embassies
Cybercrime
and Bitcoin
mining
Other State actors
Where value is
created
OSD Focus
Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward
We thought Ship-to-Ship transfers was the main issue
Mapping the interdiction approval process
Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward
Interdicting Ship
Notices Suspect
Vessel
Ship Captain Reports
Vessel to PACOM
seeking permission
to interdict
PACOM contacts
OSD for permission
OSD contacts
State Dept OPS
State OPSFlag State Desk
Flag State Post Flag State
“A 24 hour delay can
make all the
difference”
CAPT Tim Brown
USCG
Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward
Our MVPs
“Negotiator needs information on what
works”
Amb. Chris Hill
“You need to empower the negotiator, give
a menu of options”
Amb. Kathleen
Stephens
Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward
Predictive Modeling was not the solution
Predictive modeling MVP could be
useful but would be limited in effect
Enough attention on the physical
space from elsewhere
~Former Intelligence
Community Expert
Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward
We realized that we got it wrong
“Nothing on the sea matters if China
opens up a pipeline.”
- Sponsor, Office of the Secretary
of Defense
Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward
We solved the wrong problem
NSA /
Deputy
SECDEF SECTREAS SECSTATE
OSD OFAC Negotiators
NK State
Desk
Assigned
P8
Assigned
Vessels
PACFLEET
Intelligence
?
?
We searched for the missing piece
Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward
Former
Intelligence
Community
Expert
“If you are my private think tank, I
want you to figure out a way to
stop NK from making money using
cyber tools.”
How we found a new course of action
Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward
Former
Intelligence
Community
Expert
“If you are my private think tank, I
want you to figure out a way to
stop NK from making money using
cyber tools.”
“The government is slow to
catch up on these things”
Former Treasury
Official
How we found a new course of action
Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward
“Nobody’s working on
this”
Difficulty
Value
5
“Our main focus for
the last few decades”
$750,000
$7,000,000
Our next direction seemed clear
Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward
Back to square one
Unsecured Exchange Exchange BitCoin for Fiat
Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward
Back to square one
TumblerStolen BitCoin
Unsecured Exchange Exchange BitCoin for Fiat
Exchange back to
BitCoin
Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward
Back to square one
TumblerStolen BitCoin
Unsecured Exchange
Move
through
Monero
Wallets
Exchange BitCoin for Fiat
Exchange to
Monero
Move
through
Monero
Wallets
Exchange back to
BitCoin
Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward
Back to square one
~H. R. McMaster
“It could be the major
gamechanger”
“You shouldn’t know that!”
Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward
Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward
Addressing North Korean Cryptocurrency
Getting the word out
Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward
Sponsor:
Andrea Yaffe, OSD
Military Mentor:
Col. Matt Kent, USMC
Industry Mentor:
Kevin Ray
Teaching Assistant:
Mackenzie Burnett
Thank You
Teaching Team:
Steve Blank
Pete Newell
Steve Weinstein
Tom Bedecarré
Jeff Decker
Email:
team_embargonk@lists.stanford.edu

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EmbargoNK H4D Stanford 2019

  • 1. Team Embargo.NK Lessons Learned Refined Problem: “Curtail the advantage generated by theft of cryptocurrencies to exercise maximum pressure on North Korea.” Original Problem: “Use the assets at DoD disposal to disincentivize private actors from aiding North Korea.” 101 Interviews David Cornell Francesca Ginexi John Preis Antoni Rytel Sponsor Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD)
  • 2. We interviewed over 100 stakeholders
  • 3. Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward NK Negotiation Team NK State Revenue and Resources NK Regime Decision Makers Illicit Refined Fuel Smugglers NK Oil Tankers East Asian Sea Maritime Smuggling Networks Chinese Crude Oil Remittances from NK workers abroad Criminal Activity out of Embassies Cybercrime and Bitcoin mining Other State actors We mapped the sanctions enforcement ecosystem
  • 4. Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward NK Negotiation Team NK State Revenue and Resources NK Regime Decision Makers Illicit Refined Fuel Smugglers NK Oil Tankers East Asian Sea Maritime Smuggling Networks Chinese Crude Oil Remittances from NK workers abroad Criminal Activity out of Embassies Cybercrime and Bitcoin mining Other State actors We mapped the sanctions enforcement ecosystem US Negotiation Team DoD Sanctions Enforcement Policy Team Maritime AssetsIntelligence Assets Flag and Port State Enforcement International Partners State Department White House Policy Team UNSC
  • 5. Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward US Negotiation Team NK Negotiation Team DoD Sanctions Enforcement Policy Team Maritime AssetsIntelligence Assets Flag and Port State Enforcement NK State Revenue and Resources NK Regime Decision Makers International Partners State Department White House Policy Team UNSC Illicit Refined Fuel Smugglers NK Oil Tankers East Asian Sea Maritime Smuggling Networks Chinese Crude Oil Remittances from NK workers abroad Criminal Activity out of Embassies Cybercrime and Bitcoin mining Other State actors Where value is created OSD Focus
  • 6. Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward We thought Ship-to-Ship transfers was the main issue
  • 7. Mapping the interdiction approval process Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward Interdicting Ship Notices Suspect Vessel Ship Captain Reports Vessel to PACOM seeking permission to interdict PACOM contacts OSD for permission OSD contacts State Dept OPS State OPSFlag State Desk Flag State Post Flag State “A 24 hour delay can make all the difference” CAPT Tim Brown USCG
  • 8. Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward Our MVPs “Negotiator needs information on what works” Amb. Chris Hill “You need to empower the negotiator, give a menu of options” Amb. Kathleen Stephens
  • 9. Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward Predictive Modeling was not the solution Predictive modeling MVP could be useful but would be limited in effect Enough attention on the physical space from elsewhere ~Former Intelligence Community Expert
  • 10. Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward We realized that we got it wrong
  • 11. “Nothing on the sea matters if China opens up a pipeline.” - Sponsor, Office of the Secretary of Defense Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward We solved the wrong problem
  • 12. NSA / Deputy SECDEF SECTREAS SECSTATE OSD OFAC Negotiators NK State Desk Assigned P8 Assigned Vessels PACFLEET Intelligence ? ? We searched for the missing piece
  • 13. Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward Former Intelligence Community Expert “If you are my private think tank, I want you to figure out a way to stop NK from making money using cyber tools.” How we found a new course of action
  • 14. Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward Former Intelligence Community Expert “If you are my private think tank, I want you to figure out a way to stop NK from making money using cyber tools.” “The government is slow to catch up on these things” Former Treasury Official How we found a new course of action
  • 15. Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward “Nobody’s working on this” Difficulty Value 5 “Our main focus for the last few decades” $750,000 $7,000,000 Our next direction seemed clear
  • 16. Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward Back to square one
  • 17. Unsecured Exchange Exchange BitCoin for Fiat Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward Back to square one
  • 18. TumblerStolen BitCoin Unsecured Exchange Exchange BitCoin for Fiat Exchange back to BitCoin Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward Back to square one
  • 19. TumblerStolen BitCoin Unsecured Exchange Move through Monero Wallets Exchange BitCoin for Fiat Exchange to Monero Move through Monero Wallets Exchange back to BitCoin Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward Back to square one
  • 20. ~H. R. McMaster “It could be the major gamechanger” “You shouldn’t know that!” Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward
  • 21. Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward Addressing North Korean Cryptocurrency
  • 22. Getting the word out Week 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Onward
  • 23. Sponsor: Andrea Yaffe, OSD Military Mentor: Col. Matt Kent, USMC Industry Mentor: Kevin Ray Teaching Assistant: Mackenzie Burnett Thank You Teaching Team: Steve Blank Pete Newell Steve Weinstein Tom Bedecarré Jeff Decker Email: team_embargonk@lists.stanford.edu