SlideShare ist ein Scribd-Unternehmen logo
1 von 88
Downloaden Sie, um offline zu lesen
Confirmation Bias,
Cognitive Dissonance,
and Economic Crisis
By: Ryan Scott Welch

25 JAN 14
Please Silence All
Electronic Devices
Agenda
 Confirmation Bias
 Cognitive Dissonance
 Economic Indicators
 Possible Outcomes
 War-gaming Scenarios
 Timeline
 Enemy Situation
 Friendly Situation
 Responses
 Preparations
 Questions
“If a man is offered a fact which goes against
his instincts, he will scrutinize it closely, and
unless the evidence is overwhelming, he will
refuse to believe it. If, on the other hand, he
is offered something which affords a reason
for acting in accordance to his instincts, he
will accept it even on the slightest evidence.”
– Bertrand Russell
Crop Circles








Confirmation Bias

It is blindingly obvious to most people that crop circles were likely to be
man-made when they first starting showing up.
Every other explanation – lay lines, alien spacecraft, plasma vortices,
ball lightning – is bologna. The entire field of ―cereology‖ is
pseudoscience.
But serious journalists working for Science Magazine, and for a Channel
4 documentary team, swallowed the argument of the cereologists that it
was highly implausible that crop circles were all man-made.
A Channel 4 team did the obvious thing – they got a group of students to
make some crop circles and then asked the cereologist if they were
―genuine‖ or ―hoaxed‖ – ie, man made. He assured them they could not
have been made by people. So they told him they had been made the
night before. The man was poleaxed. It made great television. Yet the
producer ended the segment of the program by taking the cereologist‘s
side: ―of course, not all crop circles are hoaxes‖. What? The same thing
happened when Doug Bower and Dave Chorley confessed to having
started the whole craze; everybody just went on believing. They still do.
Confirmation Bias
Confirmation Bias in psychology and cognitive science,
confirmation bias (or confirmatory bias) is a tendency
to search for or interpret information in a way that
confirms one's preconceptions, leading to errors of
interpretation.
 It is a type of cognitive bias and represents an error of
inductive inference toward the confirmation of an
already held belief.
 This is a phenomenon where decision makers have
been shown to actively seek out and assign more
weight to evidence that confirms their hypothesis, and
ignore or underweigh evidence that could disconfirm
their hypothesis.
 As such, it can be thought of as a form of selection bias
in collecting evidence.

Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive dissonance is a discomfort caused by
holding conflicting ideas simultaneously. The theory
of cognitive dissonance proposes that people have a
motivational drive to reduce dissonance. They do this
by changing their attitudes, beliefs, and actions
A classical example of this idea (and the origin of the
expression "sour grapes") is expressed in the fable
The Fox and the Grapes by Aesop (ca. 620–564 BCE).
In the story, a fox sees some high-hanging grapes and
wishes to eat them. When the fox is unable to think of
a way to reach them, he surmises that the grapes are
probably not worth eating, as they must not be ripe or
that they are sour. This example follows a pattern: one
desires something, finds it unattainable (OR TOO
DIFFICULT), and reduces one's dissonance by
criticizing it.
Economic Indicators
Economic Indicators
 As fears grow of an imminent debt default by Greece world
leaders have urged Europe to prevent the euro area debt crisis
from spiraling out of control.
 The darkening in the global economic outlook, largely due to
Europe's debt crisis, has tainted the G-20 presidency of French
leader Nicolas Sarkozy. Sarkozy told reporters: "We are very
conscious that France and Germany have a particular
responsibility to stabilize the euro. We need to deliver a response
that is sustainable and comprehensive.―
 ―There is a high risk that this crisis further escalates and
broadens,‖ German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said.
 European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said the
―debt crisis is a fight for the economic and political future of
Europe.‖
Economic Indicators
Economic Indicators
 South African finance minister Pravin Gordhan said Friday the
resources in the EFSF and the International Monetary Fund are not
adequate.
 IMF chief Christine Lagarde warned last month that the fund's
current lending ability, "pales in comparison" to potential lending
needs if the euro zone crisis worsens.
 China's Premier Wen Jiabao said on Friday rising protectionism
is damaging the global economy. "The shadow of an international
financial crisis could be removed ... only if we properly handle
international trade friction in a more rational way," he said.
 Lukashenko has run out of money and he is now selling fear to
an angry and hungry population," Belarus' first post-Soviet leader,
Stanislav Shushkevich, told The Associated Press on Friday. The
national currency, the ruble, has collapsed and inflation is running
at a staggering 60 percent.
Economic Indicators
Economic Indicators
 U.S. gross domestic product growth is weak and growing weaker. The
Federal Reserve's latest regional survey showed even more bad news,
with growth slowdowns hitting eight of the country's 12 regions.
 The U6 U.S. unemployment rate is now at 13.1 percent, with 102 million
Americans out of work. The official rate however is 6.7% but this number
is misleading because, due to the weakening economy, many long-term
unemployed are only working part-time, or have given up searches and
are no longer being counted.

 Consumer confidence remains weak, particularly among CEOs, those
closest to the ups and downs of the American economic engine.
Confidence is critical in the U.S. economy where two-thirds of economic
activity comes from consumer spending.
 The U.S. housing market — another key economic driver as people who
buy homes fill up those places with goods — remains weak. Home prices
in Las Vegas, Tampa and elsewhere are down almost 50 percent since the
boom days of 2005-2006.
Economic Indicators
Economic Indicators
 In July, S&P downgraded the United States' debt rating. The
S&P said ―the United States needed to not only raise the debt
ceiling, but also develop a ‗credible‘ plan to tackle the nation's
long-term debt.‖
 The U.S. economy is staring down another recession, according
to a forecast from the Economic Cycle Research Institute.
 The federal government closed out fiscal year 2011 with an
estimated deficit of $1.3 trillion, according to Congressional
Budget Office estimates. It was the third straight year that the
deficit exceeded $1 trillion.
 The U.S. housing market — another key economic driver as
people who buy homes fill up those places with goods — remains
weak. Home prices in Las Vegas, Tampa and elsewhere are down
almost 50 percent since the boom days of 2005-2006.
Economic Indicators
Economic Indicators
 I think there is a risk that the U.S. debt default may happen," the
adviser, Li Daokui, said at the time. "The result will be very serious
and I really hope that they would stop playing with fire.‖

 Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the crisis was slowing
economic growth in Europe, which he said did represent a threat to
the U.S. economy.
 The Federal reserve chairman Ben Bernanke has warned that
US economic recovery is "close to faltering", and that a
"disorderly" default in the Greek debt would have a serious impact.
 Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said, ―the
size of the problem coming from Europe — I don't think it could be
overestimated. I think it's very dangerous.‖
Economic Indicators
Economic Indicators
Derivatives

 The world's second-richest man, Warren Buffett, who is known

as "the sage of Omaha", said that the rapidly growing trade in
derivatives poses a "mega-catastrophic risk" for the economy . He
also said that ―derivatives are financial weapons of mass
destruction.‖
 Former French President Jacques Chirac referred to derivatives
as "financial AIDS".
 Christopher Cox, the head of the United States Securities and
Exchange Commission said that, ―derivatives are the villains in the
current collapse of the global financial system.‖
Derivatives
Derivatives

Heidi is the proprietor of a bar in Detroit ...

She realizes that virtually all of her customers are
unemployed alcoholics and, as such, can no longer
afford to patronize her bar.
To solve this problem, she comes up with a new
marketing plan that allows her customers to drink
now, but pay later.

Heidi keeps track of the drinks consumed on a
ledger (thereby granting the customers loans).
Word gets around about Heidi's "drink now, pay
later" marketing strategy and, as a result,
increasing numbers of customers flood into Heidi's
bar. Soon she has the largest sales volume for any
bar in Detroit .
Derivatives
By providing her customers freedom from
immediate payment demands, Heidi gets no
resistance when, at regular intervals, she
substantially increases her prices for wine and
beer, the most consumed beverages.
Consequently, Heidi's gross sales volume increases
massively.

A young and dynamic vice-president at the local
bank recognizes that these customer debts
constitute valuable future assets and increases
Heidi's borrowing limit.
He sees no reason for any undue concern because
he has the debts of the unemployed alcoholics as
collateral!
Derivatives
At the bank's corporate headquarters, expert
traders figure a way to make huge commissions,
and transform these customer loans into
DRINKBONDS.
These "securities" then are bundled and traded on
international securities markets.

Naive investors don't really understand that the
securities being sold to them as "AAA Secured
Bonds" really are debts of unemployed alcoholics.
Nevertheless, the bond prices continuously climb and the securities soon become the hottest-selling
items for some of the nation's leading brokerage
houses.
Derivatives
One day, even though the bond prices still are
climbing, a risk manager at the original local bank
decides that the time has come to demand
payment on the debts incurred by the drinkers at
Heidi's bar. He so informs Heidi.
Heidi then demands payment from her alcoholic
patrons. But, being unemployed alcoholics -- they
cannot pay back their drinking debts.
Since Heidi cannot fulfill her loan obligations she is
forced into bankruptcy. The bar closes and Heidi's
11 employees lose their jobs.
Derivatives
The collapsed bond asset value destroys the bank's
liquidity and prevents it from issuing new loans,
thus freezing credit and economic activity in the
community.
The suppliers of Heidi's bar had granted her
generous payment extensions and had invested
their firms' pension funds in the BOND securities.
They find they are now faced with having to write
off her bad debt and with losing over 90% of the
presumed value of the bonds.
Derivatives
Overnight, DRINKBOND prices drop by 90%.
Her wine supplier also claims bankruptcy, closing
the doors on a family business that had endured
for three generations, her beer supplier is taken
over by a competitor, who immediately closes the
local plant and lays off 150 workers.
Now do you understand?
Derivatives
Derivatives






"Today there is a horrific derivatives bubble that threatens to destroy not
only the U.S. economy but the entire world financial system as well.
Basically, derivatives are financial instruments whose value depends upon
or is derived from the price of something else. A derivative has no
underlying value of its own. It is essentially a side bet. Originally,
derivatives were mostly used to hedge risk and to offset the possibility of
taking losses. But today it has gone way, way beyond that. Today the
world financial system has become a gigantic casino where insanely large
bets are made on anything and everything that you can possibly imagine.
The derivatives market is almost entirely unregulated and in recent years
it has ballooned to such enormous proportions that it is almost hard to
believe. Today, the worldwide derivatives market is approximately 20
times the size of the entire global economy.
Because derivatives are so unregulated, nobody knows for certain exactly
what the total value of all the derivatives worldwide is, but low estimates
put it around 600 trillion dollars and high estimates put it at around 1.5
quadrillion dollars.
Derivatives
Derivatives




Do you know how large one quadrillion is? 1,000,000,000,000,000.
Counting at one dollar per second, it would take 32 million years to count
to one quadrillion. To put that in perspective, the gross domestic product
of the United States is only about 15 trillion dollars and 1.5 quadrillion is
100 times that. So when you are talking about 1.5 quadrillion dollars, you
are talking about an amount of money that is almost inconceivable. So
what is going to happen when this insanely large derivatives bubble pops?
Well, the truth is that the danger that we face from derivatives is so great
that Warren Buffet has called them "financial weapons of mass
destruction". It would be hard to understate the financial devastation that
we could potentially be facing. A number of years back, French President
Jacques Chirac referred to derivatives as "financial AIDS". The reality is
that when this bubble pops there won't be enough money in the entire
world to fix it. But ignorance is bliss, and most people simply do not
understand these complex financial instruments enough to be worried
about them. Unfortunately, just because most of us do not understand the
danger does not mean that the danger has been eliminated.
Derivatives
Derivatives






The hedge-fund and derivatives markets are so highly complex and
technical that even many top economists and investment-banking
professionals don't fully understand them. Moreover, both the
hedge-fund and the derivatives markets are almost totally
unregulated, either by the U.S. government or by any other
government worldwide.
Most Americans don't realize it, but derivatives played a major role
in the financial crisis of 2007 and 2008. Do you remember how AIG
was constantly in the news for a while there? Well, they weren't in
financial trouble because they had written a bunch of bad insurance
policies. What had happened is that a subsidiary of AIG had lost
more than $18 billion on Credit Default Swaps (derivatives) it had
written, and additional losses from derivatives were on the way
which could have caused the complete collapse of the insurance
giant. So the U.S. government stepped in and bailed them out - all
at U.S. taxpayer expense of course.
But the AIG incident was actually quite small compared to what
could be coming. The derivatives market has become so monolithic
that even a relatively minor imbalance in the global economy could
set off a chain reaction that would have devastating consequences.
In his recent article on derivatives, Webster Tarpley described the
central role that derivatives now play in our financial system...
Derivatives
Derivatives




Far from being some arcane or marginal activity, financial derivatives have
come to represent the principal business of the financier oligarchy in Wall
Street, the City of London, Frankfurt, and other money centers. A concerted
effort has been made by politicians and the news media to hide and
camouflage the central role played by derivative speculation in the
economic disasters of recent years. Journalists and public relations types
have done everything possible to avoid even mentioning derivatives,
coining phrases like “toxic assets,” “exotic instruments,” and – most notably
– “troubled assets,” as in Troubled Assets Relief Program or TARP, aka the
monstrous $800 billion bailout of Wall Street speculators which was
enacted in October 2008 with the support of Bush, Henry Paulson, John
McCain, Sarah Palin, and the Obama Democrats.
One day some event will happen which will cause a sudden shift in world
financial markets and trillions of dollars of losses in derivatives will create a
tsunami that will bring the entire house of cards down. All of the money in
the world will not be enough to bail out the financial system when that day
arrives. Soon enough we will all pay the price, and when that disastrous day
comes, most Americans will still not understand what is happening.
- http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article21764.html
The $1.5 QUADRILLION Derivatives Bubble

That's $1,500,000,000,000

Derivatives
Derivatives
 Unless this derivatives problem is resolved, there is
no way the world economy is not headed towards a
massive 20-30 years Great Depression.
 The current estimated US$14 Trillion of bailout,
guarantees, loans… by the US government will not
revive the economy. It is simply trying to paper over the
$1.5 Quadrillion (1000 Trillion) derivatives problem. No
amount of money can paper over this financial black
hole.
Economic Indicators
Economic Indicators
 The global economy is rapidly descending into the chaos of a
Second World Economic Depression of catastrophic
proportions. In the year since the collapse of Bear Stearns, we
have moved toward the disintegration of the entire globalized
world financial system, based on the residual status of the US
dollar as a reserve currency, and expressed through the banking
hegemony of London, New York, and the US-UK controlled
international lending institutions like the International Monetary
fund and the World Bank. This is a breakdown crisis of world
civilization, prepared over decades by the folly of
deindustrialization and the illusions of a postindustrial society, …..
If current policies are maintained, we face the acute danger of a
terminal dollar disintegration and world hyperinflation.
Economic Indicators
Economic Indicators






1 – Back in the 1930s, tens of millions of Americans lived on farms or
knew how to grow their own food. Today the vast majority of
Americans are totally dependent on the system for even their most
basic needs.
2 – A vast horde of Baby Boomers is expecting to retire, and the
―Social Security trust fund‖ has nothing but 2.5 trillion dollars of
government IOUs in it. According to an official U.S. government
report, rapidly growing interest costs on the U.S. national debt
together with spending on major entitlement programs such as
Social Security and Medicare will absorb approximately 92 cents of
every dollar of federal revenue by the year 2019. This is a financial
tsunami the likes of which Americans back in the 1930s could never
have even dreamed of.
3 – American workers never had to compete for jobs with workers on
the other side of the world back in the 1930s. But today, millions
upon millions of our jobs have been ―outsourced‖ to China, India
and a vast array of third world nations where desperate workers are
more than happy to slave away for big global corporations for less
than a dollar an hour. How in the world are American workers
supposed to compete with that?
Economic Indicators
Economic Indicators




4 – Back in the 1930s, there was nothing like the gigantic derivatives
bubble that hangs over us today. The total value of all derivatives
worldwide is estimated to be somewhere between 600 trillion and 1.5
quadrillion dollars. The danger that we face from derivatives is so
great that Warren Buffet has called them ―financial weapons of mass
destruction‖. When this bubble pops there won‘t be enough money in
the entire world to fix it.
5 – During the Great Depression, the United States economy was
relatively self-contained. But today we truly do live in a global
economy. Unfortunately that means that a severe economic crisis in
one part of the world is going to affect us as well. Right now, the
United States is far from alone in dealing with a massive debt
crisis. Greece, Spain, Italy, Hungary, Portugal and a number of other
European nations are in real danger of actually defaulting on their
debts. Japan (the third biggest economy in the world) is on the verge
of complete and total economic collapse. So what happens to the U.S.
economy when the dominoes start to fall?
Economic Indicators
Possible Outcomes

Dollar Collapse

 Causes
 Underlying Economic Weakness
 Viable Alternative: Gold or New Currency
 Russian President Dmitry Medvedev suggested
creating― a new reserve currency" to replace
the dollar. Chinese central bank governor Zhou
Xiaochuan also proposed a new reserve
currency, one "disconnected from individual
nations." Even Treasury Secretary Timothy
Geithner has said he's "open" to the idea.
Possible Outcomes
Possible Outcomes

Triggering Event
A slight but sudden rise in the
price of a necessary commodity
which will cause all commodities
to rise.
Internal instability/riots (Occupy
movement)
Terrorist attack
Natural disaster
Possible Outcomes

 Results
Hyperinflation - 95% of all
historic cases of hyperinflation it
begins during either a
deflationary depression or deep
deflationary recession
Hyperinflation

 Hyperinflation
 Hyperinflation is the loss of faith in the
currency. Prices rise in a hyperinflationary
environment just like in an inflationary
environment, but they rise not because
people want more money for their labor or
for commodities, but because people are
trying to get out of the currency. It‘s not that
they want more money — they want less of
the currency: So they will pay anything for a
good which is not the currency.
Hyperinflation
Instances
Germany 1920-1923
Russia 1921-1924
Austria 1921-1922
Poland 1922-1924
Hungary 1922-1924
Greece 1943-1944
Hungary 1945-1946

3.25 million percent
213 percent
134 percent
275 percent
98 percent
8.55 billion percent
4.19 quintillion percent
Hyperinflation

Instances con‘t
Argentina 1984-1997
Brazil 1980-1994
Bolivia 1980-1994
Peru 1981-1989
Yugoslavia 1993-1994
Zaire 1988-1997

3,086 percent
30,377 percent
14,700 percent
3,000 percent
5 quadrillion percent
24,000 percent
Hyperinflation


As the government becomes more desperate for
cash, they will increase the flow of paper money
(fiat currency) until the entire financial system
becomes insoluble. As the American dollar
weakens, foreign countries will sell their bonds
(or not renew the purchase of their treasury bills)
and flood the market with devalued currency.
You can expect inflation like the U.S. has never
experienced. The cost of items will skyrocket and
your wages will stay the same (or you will be laid
off). Those in power will blame the free market
and capitalism but the real cause of the fall will
be their years of failed economic policies.
Possible Outcomes
Depression
Possible Outcomes
Economic

Recovery






When asked about the timing of hyperinflation in the United States John
Williams of Shadowstats stated, “That’s the type of thing that could happen at
any time, all of the fundamentals are in place. I do think we’re going to have a
dollar crisis. I can’t give you the precise timing on it, but circumstances are
negative for the dollar in terms of relative political stability. When you look at
our government here we can’t control the fiscal conditions. Our trade deficit is
continuing to deteriorate, that’s a negative for the dollar, inflation is rising on a
relative basis, that’s a negative for the dollar.
The Fed although it is officially ending QE2, most likely is going to come back
with a QE3 and that will debase the dollar and if we are going to debase the
dollar the rest of the world generally is not going to want to hold it.”
When asked how quickly could we see a dollar collapse Williams responded, “It
could happen very quickly, but they (the Fed) will try to forestall it as much as
they can. When you do get a real panic it may not be containable. What we’re
now seeing in the pickup in inflation here eventually will be seen as the
beginnings of it.”
Enemy Situation
 Marxists
 Anarchists
 Socialists
 Jihadists
 Gangs
 Drug Lord Organizations
Friendly Forces
 Family
 Church
 Neighbors
 Local Community
 Associations
 Tea Party or other groups
 Local Emergency Response Teams
Responses











Stay Calm
Find Your Family at a Rally Point
72 Hour Kit
Execute Movement Plan
Make Alliances
Plan Self Defense
Reduce Waste
Grow Crops
Plan to Secure Long Term Food Supply
Preparations





How to overcome and prepare for hyperinflation.
The next depression will be 20 to 30 years and make the first
depression look like a picnic. Hyperinflation will be
the beginning and the true economic impact will take a very
long time to correct. These steps will help you weather the
economic storm.
Pay off your debt – As prices increase keeping up with
payments will be extremely difficult. Too much debt will
force you to lose your home, vehicles, and you will struggle to
make ends meet. You will need all the money you make just
to buy food. Avoid large homes, credit card debt, excess
student loans, and new car purchases.
Preparations




Buy tangible goods – While gold and silver play a role in

shifting to a new currency don’t overlook things you can use
in the shorterm. Barter will be popular again and having long
term food storage, kerosene, medical supplies, seeds, and
luxuries like toilet paper or chocolate can help you when
there are shortages. In the mid term gold and silver will be
very important but don’t over look the basics of daily life.
Invest in things that are inflation resistant – Invest in
economic sectors that can raise their prices or adjust their
value as the prices increase. Treasury Inflation-Protected
Securities (TIPS), commodities (like oil and metals), and real
estate are generally safe bets to overcome inflation. Make
sure your loans have fixed interest rates. Expect to pay
extremely high interest rates (in the 20% range) and expect to
put much larger down payments down.




Strengthen the family – Family ties and local
communities/churches will help those that are struggling
(sorry government programs will not be there to help; think
Katrina). Those on fixed income or welfare will be the
hardest hit by economic problems. The traditional family unit
has stood the test of time for good reason. Grandma and
grandpa will be moving in and you might need to take care of
your siblings too.
Learn how to grow food – Plant a garden and learn how to
preserve food. If possible raise chickens for eggs and goats
or cows for milk. Canning fruits and vegetables will be
common. Stock your root cellar. Learn how to make your soil
healthy and nutrient rich without buying fertilizer (e.g. learn
how to compost). Avoid hybrid seeds because after the first
crop the next batch of seeds will provide inferior and low
yield crops. Buy heirloom seeds and plant them. Harvest
seeds for next year.
Preparations






Buy bulk food and learn how to use it – Start using wheat by
grinding it and baking with it. Find recipes that call for use of
basic stable grains like rice, beans, wheat, and lentils.
Get all the education you can – Finish your degree, learn new
skills, get certificates in your area of expertise. The job
market will be extremely competitive and all the extra skills
you have will give you the edge.
Diversify your income – Start side businesses, turn your
hobbies into income, or consider rental property. Try to get
income from as many different sources as possible.
Preparations






Learn to do more with less - This requires some creative thinking
when shopping, using what you have, and throwing things
away. Many times you don’t need something new, you need to
use something you already have. Instead of throwing something
away consider repairing it or re-purposing it as something else
(e.g. using old jeans to make a quilt). Buying quality products
instead of cheap Chinese crap. You’ll need things to last
longer. Start now by buying quality instead of cheap quantity.
Stay positive – Your mindset and your positive attitude will be
your biggest asset. While these will be trying times you can still
choose what makes you truly happy. If you are attached to
material objects start now by weening your way off new
technology, a home that’s too big, and cars you can’t
afford. Learn to enjoy the simple things in life and the company
of the people you love.
THINGS TO AVOID – Avoid Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMS),
Bonds, and Debt
Preparations






BUY FARM LAND
GROW YOUR OWN FOOD. LIVE NEAR PEOPLE AND BEGIN TO MAKE ALLIANCES OF SKILLS
(BARTER) LIVE NEAR FARM LAND
ELECTRONICS FREE
PAPER COPIES OF IMPORTANT DOCUMENTS
KNOW WHERE YOUR DEEDS ARE. TAKE THEM IN EMERGENCY
BUY A VEHICLE- CONSIDER SOMETHING PRIOR TO 1979 FIX YOURSELF
COLLEGE/SCHOOL
APPRENTICESHIPS ARE THE FUTURE.
DISCUSS THE VALUE OF SCHOOL FOR WHAT YOU CAN EARN.
DO NOT LOOK FOR LABELS THEY WILL BECOME MEANINGLESS (YALE)
FIND OTHER FORMS OF SCHOOL. ON LINE.
DEMAND MERIT FROM SCHOOL AND STUDENT OR PULL YOUR TIME/ $
EDUCATE YOURSELF AT ALL TIMES. ALWAYS READ.
HAVE A HARD COPY OF IMPORTANT BOOKS AND DOCUMENTS
LEARN OLD AND OR LOST PRACTICES.
MENDING/CANNING/FARMING
LEARN TO FIX AN ENGINE
RE-LEARN READING A MAP
KNOW THE NEWS. LIFE CAN CHANGE QUICKLY.
BE ABLE TO DEFEND YOUR POSITIONS BY KNOWING THE OTHER SIDE
Preparations




TRADITIONS
PRESERVE WHAT IS IMPORTANT. SHED ALL OTHERS. CONSERVE AND
PRESERVE. RECLAIM AND RESTORE.
MONEY GOLD, FOOD, CIGARETTES, LIQUOR, SUGAR, AMMUNITION, GUNS, SEEDS,
SKILLS (BARTER) KNOWLEDGE
HAVE 30 DAYS CASH ON HAND
BUY A HOUSE
STOP ALL EXCESS SPENDING. BUY QUALITY ONLY. FORGET FASHION ONLY
MEASURE TWICE – CUT ONCE. DO NOT WASTE.
CONSIDER A FUEL EFFICIENT – SUV/TRUCK
Preparations






LOCATION
LIVE NEAR LIKE MINDED PEOPLE. TEXAS, MOUNTAINS OR WHERE GOD STILL PLAYS A ROLE IN
REAL LIFE
IF YOU CANNOT MOVE (NO PLACE WILL BE UNTOUCHED) CREATE NETWORK
BUSINESS/WORK
BE THE BEST YOU CAN BE. BE THE ONE EMPLOYEE NO ONE CAN FIRE
SMALL BIZ – BE THE PRODUCT OR SERVICE NO ONE CAN CANCEL
CONSERVE AND PRESERVE
LEARN FROM THE DEPRESSION ADVERTISE WHEN NO ONE ELSE IS
STAY IN BUSINESS BUT DOWNSIZE AND PRESERVE (ARCH)
HONESTY, INTEGRITY AND CHARITY.
BE GEORGE BAILEY
SPIT YOURSELF OUT OF THE SYSTEM. TURN UPSIDE DOWN NOW
PUT YOUR MONEY WHERE YOUR HEART IS
DO BUSINESS IN SYMBIOTIC WAYS – WE NEED EACH OTHER
DO NOT TRY TO PUT OTHERS OUT OF BUSINESS, LET THEM DO IT.
GIMBLES AND MACYS
NEVER BE THE SMARTEST MAN IN THE ROOM
TAKE CARE OF YOUR EMPLOYEES THE BEST YOU CAN.
TAKE LESS AND GIVE MORE
READ FRANKLIN AND WASHINGTON
Preparations




LIFE
DO NOT PLAN YOUR LIFE AND THEN MOVE. PLAN, LISTEN AND OBEY
PRACTICE AT LEAST FRANKLINS AMERICAN RELIGION
SERVE
HONOR ALL OF YOUR OBLIGATIONS
PRESERVE – FOOD, TIME, MONEY, ENERGY
TEACH YOUR CHILDREN THE BASICS. VALUES/PRINCIPLES
DO WITH LESS NOW. LESS OF A SHOCK IF IT COMES LATER
SERVE/SHARE
JOIN A 9.12 GROUP. LINK ON LINE. PHONE AND LOCATIONS
HAVE A MEETING PLACE ESTABLISHED FOR FAMILY
READ THE BIBLE
HAVE A GUN AND KNOW HOW TO SHOOT IT.
RESOLVE THOSE ISSUES THAT ARE HOLDING YOU BACK
STOP ALL BEHAVIOR THAT DOES NOT EXPAND YOU OR OTHERS INTO GOOD
MAKE AMENDS FOR WHAT YOU HAVE DONE
FIND PEACE AND GET TO WORK
TEACH CHILDREN WORK ETHIC
TOLERATE NOTHING THAT YOU FEEL IS WRONG BY REMAINING SILENT
LET YOUR CHILDREN SEE YOU STAND
BE HONORABLE IN ALL OF YOUR DEALINGS
UNDERSTAND THAT ANGER IS A PART OF LIFE BUT NEVER FEED IT
THE FIRST LOOK IS NOT A PROBLEM. IT IS THE SECOND LOOK.
NEVER BE THE BEST MAN/WOMAN IN THE ROOM.
BE HAPPY AND OPTIMISTIC. LIFE WILL GO ON. MAKE PLANS FOR THE
FUTURE. GET MARRIED. HAVE CHILDREN.
Questions?

Weitere ähnliche Inhalte

Was ist angesagt?

Turning Point?
Turning Point?Turning Point?
Turning Point?Jeff Green
 
Macroresearch
MacroresearchMacroresearch
Macroresearchdza1212
 
The Changing Story of Retirement
The Changing Story of RetirementThe Changing Story of Retirement
The Changing Story of RetirementMichael Woloshin
 
Financial crisis
Financial crisisFinancial crisis
Financial crisisswayne
 
Financial crisis
Financial crisisFinancial crisis
Financial crisislmelamed
 
Financial crisis 2
Financial crisis 2Financial crisis 2
Financial crisis 2bhkadin
 
Financial crisis
Financial crisisFinancial crisis
Financial crisisbhkadin
 
USD Outlook: False Start, Go Again
USD Outlook: False Start, Go AgainUSD Outlook: False Start, Go Again
USD Outlook: False Start, Go AgainWorld First
 
5 most expensive mistakes companies make when trying to grow their company.
5 most expensive mistakes companies make when trying to grow their company.5 most expensive mistakes companies make when trying to grow their company.
5 most expensive mistakes companies make when trying to grow their company.ikealu7
 
McKinsey Global Economic Outlook
McKinsey Global Economic OutlookMcKinsey Global Economic Outlook
McKinsey Global Economic OutlookRoy Chan
 
Spring Surge Continues - The Real Estate Report May/June
Spring Surge Continues - The Real Estate Report May/JuneSpring Surge Continues - The Real Estate Report May/June
Spring Surge Continues - The Real Estate Report May/JuneAMSI, San Francisco
 
Attention Grabs in December to Movember 2018 on Facebook
Attention Grabs in December to Movember 2018 on FacebookAttention Grabs in December to Movember 2018 on Facebook
Attention Grabs in December to Movember 2018 on FacebookAjaz Hussain
 

Was ist angesagt? (12)

Turning Point?
Turning Point?Turning Point?
Turning Point?
 
Macroresearch
MacroresearchMacroresearch
Macroresearch
 
The Changing Story of Retirement
The Changing Story of RetirementThe Changing Story of Retirement
The Changing Story of Retirement
 
Financial crisis
Financial crisisFinancial crisis
Financial crisis
 
Financial crisis
Financial crisisFinancial crisis
Financial crisis
 
Financial crisis 2
Financial crisis 2Financial crisis 2
Financial crisis 2
 
Financial crisis
Financial crisisFinancial crisis
Financial crisis
 
USD Outlook: False Start, Go Again
USD Outlook: False Start, Go AgainUSD Outlook: False Start, Go Again
USD Outlook: False Start, Go Again
 
5 most expensive mistakes companies make when trying to grow their company.
5 most expensive mistakes companies make when trying to grow their company.5 most expensive mistakes companies make when trying to grow their company.
5 most expensive mistakes companies make when trying to grow their company.
 
McKinsey Global Economic Outlook
McKinsey Global Economic OutlookMcKinsey Global Economic Outlook
McKinsey Global Economic Outlook
 
Spring Surge Continues - The Real Estate Report May/June
Spring Surge Continues - The Real Estate Report May/JuneSpring Surge Continues - The Real Estate Report May/June
Spring Surge Continues - The Real Estate Report May/June
 
Attention Grabs in December to Movember 2018 on Facebook
Attention Grabs in December to Movember 2018 on FacebookAttention Grabs in December to Movember 2018 on Facebook
Attention Grabs in December to Movember 2018 on Facebook
 

Andere mochten auch

Global Warming?
Global Warming?Global Warming?
Global Warming?Ryan Welch
 
Confirmation bias
Confirmation biasConfirmation bias
Confirmation biasDarrenTofu
 
How much atmospheric co2 is from human activity
How much atmospheric co2 is from human activityHow much atmospheric co2 is from human activity
How much atmospheric co2 is from human activityRyan Welch
 
Cognitive Biases
Cognitive BiasesCognitive Biases
Cognitive BiasesJim Davies
 
Test ...your cognitive biases! v1
Test ...your cognitive biases! v1Test ...your cognitive biases! v1
Test ...your cognitive biases! v1Oana Juncu
 
10 cognitive biases that distorts your thinking
10 cognitive biases that distorts your thinking10 cognitive biases that distorts your thinking
10 cognitive biases that distorts your thinkingCol Mukteshwar Prasad
 
Cognitive Dissonance Theory
Cognitive Dissonance TheoryCognitive Dissonance Theory
Cognitive Dissonance TheoryRohit Rohan
 
Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive DissonanceCognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonanceazanaboni
 
Cognitive biases - a visual study guide
Cognitive biases - a visual study guideCognitive biases - a visual study guide
Cognitive biases - a visual study guideEric Fernandez
 
Cognitive Dissonance Theory
Cognitive Dissonance TheoryCognitive Dissonance Theory
Cognitive Dissonance TheoryArun Jacob
 

Andere mochten auch (11)

Global Warming?
Global Warming?Global Warming?
Global Warming?
 
Confirmation bias
Confirmation biasConfirmation bias
Confirmation bias
 
How much atmospheric co2 is from human activity
How much atmospheric co2 is from human activityHow much atmospheric co2 is from human activity
How much atmospheric co2 is from human activity
 
Cognitive Biases
Cognitive BiasesCognitive Biases
Cognitive Biases
 
Test ...your cognitive biases! v1
Test ...your cognitive biases! v1Test ...your cognitive biases! v1
Test ...your cognitive biases! v1
 
10 cognitive biases that distorts your thinking
10 cognitive biases that distorts your thinking10 cognitive biases that distorts your thinking
10 cognitive biases that distorts your thinking
 
Cognitive Dissonance Theory
Cognitive Dissonance TheoryCognitive Dissonance Theory
Cognitive Dissonance Theory
 
Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive DissonanceCognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance
 
Cognitive biases - a visual study guide
Cognitive biases - a visual study guideCognitive biases - a visual study guide
Cognitive biases - a visual study guide
 
Cognitive Dissonance Theory
Cognitive Dissonance TheoryCognitive Dissonance Theory
Cognitive Dissonance Theory
 
Cognitive dissonance theory
Cognitive dissonance theoryCognitive dissonance theory
Cognitive dissonance theory
 

Ähnlich wie Economiccrisisbrief3 140125050247-phpapp01

How do conservatives explain economic downturnsSolutionAs the.pdf
How do conservatives explain economic downturnsSolutionAs the.pdfHow do conservatives explain economic downturnsSolutionAs the.pdf
How do conservatives explain economic downturnsSolutionAs the.pdfcallawaycorb73779
 
Final Days Of Dollar
Final Days Of DollarFinal Days Of Dollar
Final Days Of Dollarbartonp
 
Us economy goldilocks- 4th oct 2007 published in singapore times
Us economy   goldilocks- 4th oct 2007 published in singapore timesUs economy   goldilocks- 4th oct 2007 published in singapore times
Us economy goldilocks- 4th oct 2007 published in singapore timessatya saurabh khosla
 
The world has not learned the lessons of the financial crisisBan.docx
The world has not learned the lessons of the financial crisisBan.docxThe world has not learned the lessons of the financial crisisBan.docx
The world has not learned the lessons of the financial crisisBan.docxpelise1
 
Secular StagnationWhy Might Equilibriu.docx
Secular StagnationWhy Might Equilibriu.docxSecular StagnationWhy Might Equilibriu.docx
Secular StagnationWhy Might Equilibriu.docxedgar6wallace88877
 
Secular StagnationWhy Might Equilibriu.docx
Secular StagnationWhy Might Equilibriu.docxSecular StagnationWhy Might Equilibriu.docx
Secular StagnationWhy Might Equilibriu.docxjeffreye3
 
A P R I L 2 0 , 2 0 2 0 A Universal Basic Income is Ess.docx
A P R I L  2 0 ,  2 0 2 0  A Universal Basic Income is Ess.docxA P R I L  2 0 ,  2 0 2 0  A Universal Basic Income is Ess.docx
A P R I L 2 0 , 2 0 2 0 A Universal Basic Income is Ess.docxaryan532920
 
Financial Crises Final Paper
Financial Crises Final PaperFinancial Crises Final Paper
Financial Crises Final PaperJosh Hamilton
 
International Human Resources
International Human ResourcesInternational Human Resources
International Human ResourcesGokhan Saglam
 
Ricardo V Lago Business Forum University Of Miami 15 Jan 2009
Ricardo V Lago  Business Forum  University Of Miami  15  Jan  2009Ricardo V Lago  Business Forum  University Of Miami  15  Jan  2009
Ricardo V Lago Business Forum University Of Miami 15 Jan 2009neiracar
 
Bass cognitive dissonance
Bass cognitive dissonanceBass cognitive dissonance
Bass cognitive dissonanceFrank Ragol
 
Bass cognitive dissonance
Bass cognitive dissonanceBass cognitive dissonance
Bass cognitive dissonanceFrank Ragol
 
America's failing banks feature
America's failing banks featureAmerica's failing banks feature
America's failing banks featureHazween Hassan
 
Writing Research Papers By James D. Lester - Coursewor
Writing Research Papers By James D. Lester - CourseworWriting Research Papers By James D. Lester - Coursewor
Writing Research Papers By James D. Lester - CourseworMegan Mack
 
Global Banking Reset : Deutsche Bank Collapse
Global Banking Reset : Deutsche Bank CollapseGlobal Banking Reset : Deutsche Bank Collapse
Global Banking Reset : Deutsche Bank CollapseThe Free School
 
Deutsche Bank Collapse : Global Banking Reset (Free Book)
Deutsche Bank Collapse : Global Banking Reset (Free Book)Deutsche Bank Collapse : Global Banking Reset (Free Book)
Deutsche Bank Collapse : Global Banking Reset (Free Book)The Free School
 
Instructions1. On the top of the page, provide the article citat.docx
Instructions1. On the top of the page, provide the article citat.docxInstructions1. On the top of the page, provide the article citat.docx
Instructions1. On the top of the page, provide the article citat.docxnormanibarber20063
 
PCN-501 Relapse Prevention PlanRead the Jed case study and.docx
PCN-501 Relapse Prevention PlanRead the Jed case study and.docxPCN-501 Relapse Prevention PlanRead the Jed case study and.docx
PCN-501 Relapse Prevention PlanRead the Jed case study and.docxdanhaley45372
 
NAFAC Moderator Paper
NAFAC Moderator PaperNAFAC Moderator Paper
NAFAC Moderator PaperKeith Hollis
 

Ähnlich wie Economiccrisisbrief3 140125050247-phpapp01 (20)

How do conservatives explain economic downturnsSolutionAs the.pdf
How do conservatives explain economic downturnsSolutionAs the.pdfHow do conservatives explain economic downturnsSolutionAs the.pdf
How do conservatives explain economic downturnsSolutionAs the.pdf
 
Final Days Of Dollar
Final Days Of DollarFinal Days Of Dollar
Final Days Of Dollar
 
Us economy goldilocks- 4th oct 2007 published in singapore times
Us economy   goldilocks- 4th oct 2007 published in singapore timesUs economy   goldilocks- 4th oct 2007 published in singapore times
Us economy goldilocks- 4th oct 2007 published in singapore times
 
The world has not learned the lessons of the financial crisisBan.docx
The world has not learned the lessons of the financial crisisBan.docxThe world has not learned the lessons of the financial crisisBan.docx
The world has not learned the lessons of the financial crisisBan.docx
 
Secular StagnationWhy Might Equilibriu.docx
Secular StagnationWhy Might Equilibriu.docxSecular StagnationWhy Might Equilibriu.docx
Secular StagnationWhy Might Equilibriu.docx
 
Secular StagnationWhy Might Equilibriu.docx
Secular StagnationWhy Might Equilibriu.docxSecular StagnationWhy Might Equilibriu.docx
Secular StagnationWhy Might Equilibriu.docx
 
A P R I L 2 0 , 2 0 2 0 A Universal Basic Income is Ess.docx
A P R I L  2 0 ,  2 0 2 0  A Universal Basic Income is Ess.docxA P R I L  2 0 ,  2 0 2 0  A Universal Basic Income is Ess.docx
A P R I L 2 0 , 2 0 2 0 A Universal Basic Income is Ess.docx
 
Financial Crises Final Paper
Financial Crises Final PaperFinancial Crises Final Paper
Financial Crises Final Paper
 
International Human Resources
International Human ResourcesInternational Human Resources
International Human Resources
 
Ricardo V Lago Business Forum University Of Miami 15 Jan 2009
Ricardo V Lago  Business Forum  University Of Miami  15  Jan  2009Ricardo V Lago  Business Forum  University Of Miami  15  Jan  2009
Ricardo V Lago Business Forum University Of Miami 15 Jan 2009
 
Bass cognitive dissonance
Bass cognitive dissonanceBass cognitive dissonance
Bass cognitive dissonance
 
Bass cognitive dissonance
Bass cognitive dissonanceBass cognitive dissonance
Bass cognitive dissonance
 
America's failing banks feature
America's failing banks featureAmerica's failing banks feature
America's failing banks feature
 
Writing Research Papers By James D. Lester - Coursewor
Writing Research Papers By James D. Lester - CourseworWriting Research Papers By James D. Lester - Coursewor
Writing Research Papers By James D. Lester - Coursewor
 
Global Banking Reset : Deutsche Bank Collapse
Global Banking Reset : Deutsche Bank CollapseGlobal Banking Reset : Deutsche Bank Collapse
Global Banking Reset : Deutsche Bank Collapse
 
Deutsche Bank Collapse : Global Banking Reset (Free Book)
Deutsche Bank Collapse : Global Banking Reset (Free Book)Deutsche Bank Collapse : Global Banking Reset (Free Book)
Deutsche Bank Collapse : Global Banking Reset (Free Book)
 
Instructions1. On the top of the page, provide the article citat.docx
Instructions1. On the top of the page, provide the article citat.docxInstructions1. On the top of the page, provide the article citat.docx
Instructions1. On the top of the page, provide the article citat.docx
 
PCN-501 Relapse Prevention PlanRead the Jed case study and.docx
PCN-501 Relapse Prevention PlanRead the Jed case study and.docxPCN-501 Relapse Prevention PlanRead the Jed case study and.docx
PCN-501 Relapse Prevention PlanRead the Jed case study and.docx
 
NAFAC Moderator Paper
NAFAC Moderator PaperNAFAC Moderator Paper
NAFAC Moderator Paper
 
Life on the Plantation: Thoughts on Income inequality
Life on the Plantation: Thoughts on Income inequalityLife on the Plantation: Thoughts on Income inequality
Life on the Plantation: Thoughts on Income inequality
 

Kürzlich hochgeladen

JET Technology Labs White Paper for Virtualized Security and Encryption Techn...
JET Technology Labs White Paper for Virtualized Security and Encryption Techn...JET Technology Labs White Paper for Virtualized Security and Encryption Techn...
JET Technology Labs White Paper for Virtualized Security and Encryption Techn...amber724300
 
A Framework for Development in the AI Age
A Framework for Development in the AI AgeA Framework for Development in the AI Age
A Framework for Development in the AI AgeCprime
 
Digital Tools & AI in Career Development
Digital Tools & AI in Career DevelopmentDigital Tools & AI in Career Development
Digital Tools & AI in Career DevelopmentMahmoud Rabie
 
Microsoft 365 Copilot: How to boost your productivity with AI – Part two: Dat...
Microsoft 365 Copilot: How to boost your productivity with AI – Part two: Dat...Microsoft 365 Copilot: How to boost your productivity with AI – Part two: Dat...
Microsoft 365 Copilot: How to boost your productivity with AI – Part two: Dat...Nikki Chapple
 
Kuma Meshes Part I - The basics - A tutorial
Kuma Meshes Part I - The basics - A tutorialKuma Meshes Part I - The basics - A tutorial
Kuma Meshes Part I - The basics - A tutorialJoão Esperancinha
 
A Glance At The Java Performance Toolbox
A Glance At The Java Performance ToolboxA Glance At The Java Performance Toolbox
A Glance At The Java Performance ToolboxAna-Maria Mihalceanu
 
Landscape Catalogue 2024 Australia-1.pdf
Landscape Catalogue 2024 Australia-1.pdfLandscape Catalogue 2024 Australia-1.pdf
Landscape Catalogue 2024 Australia-1.pdfAarwolf Industries LLC
 
So einfach geht modernes Roaming fuer Notes und Nomad.pdf
So einfach geht modernes Roaming fuer Notes und Nomad.pdfSo einfach geht modernes Roaming fuer Notes und Nomad.pdf
So einfach geht modernes Roaming fuer Notes und Nomad.pdfpanagenda
 
WomenInAutomation2024: AI and Automation for eveyone
WomenInAutomation2024: AI and Automation for eveyoneWomenInAutomation2024: AI and Automation for eveyone
WomenInAutomation2024: AI and Automation for eveyoneUiPathCommunity
 
Decarbonising Buildings: Making a net-zero built environment a reality
Decarbonising Buildings: Making a net-zero built environment a realityDecarbonising Buildings: Making a net-zero built environment a reality
Decarbonising Buildings: Making a net-zero built environment a realityIES VE
 
How to Effectively Monitor SD-WAN and SASE Environments with ThousandEyes
How to Effectively Monitor SD-WAN and SASE Environments with ThousandEyesHow to Effectively Monitor SD-WAN and SASE Environments with ThousandEyes
How to Effectively Monitor SD-WAN and SASE Environments with ThousandEyesThousandEyes
 
Manual 508 Accessibility Compliance Audit
Manual 508 Accessibility Compliance AuditManual 508 Accessibility Compliance Audit
Manual 508 Accessibility Compliance AuditSkynet Technologies
 
Microservices, Docker deploy and Microservices source code in C#
Microservices, Docker deploy and Microservices source code in C#Microservices, Docker deploy and Microservices source code in C#
Microservices, Docker deploy and Microservices source code in C#Karmanjay Verma
 
Unleashing Real-time Insights with ClickHouse_ Navigating the Landscape in 20...
Unleashing Real-time Insights with ClickHouse_ Navigating the Landscape in 20...Unleashing Real-time Insights with ClickHouse_ Navigating the Landscape in 20...
Unleashing Real-time Insights with ClickHouse_ Navigating the Landscape in 20...Alkin Tezuysal
 
Genislab builds better products and faster go-to-market with Lean project man...
Genislab builds better products and faster go-to-market with Lean project man...Genislab builds better products and faster go-to-market with Lean project man...
Genislab builds better products and faster go-to-market with Lean project man...Farhan Tariq
 
Arizona Broadband Policy Past, Present, and Future Presentation 3/25/24
Arizona Broadband Policy Past, Present, and Future Presentation 3/25/24Arizona Broadband Policy Past, Present, and Future Presentation 3/25/24
Arizona Broadband Policy Past, Present, and Future Presentation 3/25/24Mark Goldstein
 
Transcript: New from BookNet Canada for 2024: BNC SalesData and LibraryData -...
Transcript: New from BookNet Canada for 2024: BNC SalesData and LibraryData -...Transcript: New from BookNet Canada for 2024: BNC SalesData and LibraryData -...
Transcript: New from BookNet Canada for 2024: BNC SalesData and LibraryData -...BookNet Canada
 
Abdul Kader Baba- Managing Cybersecurity Risks and Compliance Requirements i...
Abdul Kader Baba- Managing Cybersecurity Risks  and Compliance Requirements i...Abdul Kader Baba- Managing Cybersecurity Risks  and Compliance Requirements i...
Abdul Kader Baba- Managing Cybersecurity Risks and Compliance Requirements i...itnewsafrica
 
[Webinar] SpiraTest - Setting New Standards in Quality Assurance
[Webinar] SpiraTest - Setting New Standards in Quality Assurance[Webinar] SpiraTest - Setting New Standards in Quality Assurance
[Webinar] SpiraTest - Setting New Standards in Quality AssuranceInflectra
 

Kürzlich hochgeladen (20)

JET Technology Labs White Paper for Virtualized Security and Encryption Techn...
JET Technology Labs White Paper for Virtualized Security and Encryption Techn...JET Technology Labs White Paper for Virtualized Security and Encryption Techn...
JET Technology Labs White Paper for Virtualized Security and Encryption Techn...
 
A Framework for Development in the AI Age
A Framework for Development in the AI AgeA Framework for Development in the AI Age
A Framework for Development in the AI Age
 
Digital Tools & AI in Career Development
Digital Tools & AI in Career DevelopmentDigital Tools & AI in Career Development
Digital Tools & AI in Career Development
 
Microsoft 365 Copilot: How to boost your productivity with AI – Part two: Dat...
Microsoft 365 Copilot: How to boost your productivity with AI – Part two: Dat...Microsoft 365 Copilot: How to boost your productivity with AI – Part two: Dat...
Microsoft 365 Copilot: How to boost your productivity with AI – Part two: Dat...
 
Kuma Meshes Part I - The basics - A tutorial
Kuma Meshes Part I - The basics - A tutorialKuma Meshes Part I - The basics - A tutorial
Kuma Meshes Part I - The basics - A tutorial
 
A Glance At The Java Performance Toolbox
A Glance At The Java Performance ToolboxA Glance At The Java Performance Toolbox
A Glance At The Java Performance Toolbox
 
Landscape Catalogue 2024 Australia-1.pdf
Landscape Catalogue 2024 Australia-1.pdfLandscape Catalogue 2024 Australia-1.pdf
Landscape Catalogue 2024 Australia-1.pdf
 
So einfach geht modernes Roaming fuer Notes und Nomad.pdf
So einfach geht modernes Roaming fuer Notes und Nomad.pdfSo einfach geht modernes Roaming fuer Notes und Nomad.pdf
So einfach geht modernes Roaming fuer Notes und Nomad.pdf
 
WomenInAutomation2024: AI and Automation for eveyone
WomenInAutomation2024: AI and Automation for eveyoneWomenInAutomation2024: AI and Automation for eveyone
WomenInAutomation2024: AI and Automation for eveyone
 
Decarbonising Buildings: Making a net-zero built environment a reality
Decarbonising Buildings: Making a net-zero built environment a realityDecarbonising Buildings: Making a net-zero built environment a reality
Decarbonising Buildings: Making a net-zero built environment a reality
 
How to Effectively Monitor SD-WAN and SASE Environments with ThousandEyes
How to Effectively Monitor SD-WAN and SASE Environments with ThousandEyesHow to Effectively Monitor SD-WAN and SASE Environments with ThousandEyes
How to Effectively Monitor SD-WAN and SASE Environments with ThousandEyes
 
Manual 508 Accessibility Compliance Audit
Manual 508 Accessibility Compliance AuditManual 508 Accessibility Compliance Audit
Manual 508 Accessibility Compliance Audit
 
Microservices, Docker deploy and Microservices source code in C#
Microservices, Docker deploy and Microservices source code in C#Microservices, Docker deploy and Microservices source code in C#
Microservices, Docker deploy and Microservices source code in C#
 
Unleashing Real-time Insights with ClickHouse_ Navigating the Landscape in 20...
Unleashing Real-time Insights with ClickHouse_ Navigating the Landscape in 20...Unleashing Real-time Insights with ClickHouse_ Navigating the Landscape in 20...
Unleashing Real-time Insights with ClickHouse_ Navigating the Landscape in 20...
 
Genislab builds better products and faster go-to-market with Lean project man...
Genislab builds better products and faster go-to-market with Lean project man...Genislab builds better products and faster go-to-market with Lean project man...
Genislab builds better products and faster go-to-market with Lean project man...
 
Arizona Broadband Policy Past, Present, and Future Presentation 3/25/24
Arizona Broadband Policy Past, Present, and Future Presentation 3/25/24Arizona Broadband Policy Past, Present, and Future Presentation 3/25/24
Arizona Broadband Policy Past, Present, and Future Presentation 3/25/24
 
Transcript: New from BookNet Canada for 2024: BNC SalesData and LibraryData -...
Transcript: New from BookNet Canada for 2024: BNC SalesData and LibraryData -...Transcript: New from BookNet Canada for 2024: BNC SalesData and LibraryData -...
Transcript: New from BookNet Canada for 2024: BNC SalesData and LibraryData -...
 
Abdul Kader Baba- Managing Cybersecurity Risks and Compliance Requirements i...
Abdul Kader Baba- Managing Cybersecurity Risks  and Compliance Requirements i...Abdul Kader Baba- Managing Cybersecurity Risks  and Compliance Requirements i...
Abdul Kader Baba- Managing Cybersecurity Risks and Compliance Requirements i...
 
[Webinar] SpiraTest - Setting New Standards in Quality Assurance
[Webinar] SpiraTest - Setting New Standards in Quality Assurance[Webinar] SpiraTest - Setting New Standards in Quality Assurance
[Webinar] SpiraTest - Setting New Standards in Quality Assurance
 
How Tech Giants Cut Corners to Harvest Data for A.I.
How Tech Giants Cut Corners to Harvest Data for A.I.How Tech Giants Cut Corners to Harvest Data for A.I.
How Tech Giants Cut Corners to Harvest Data for A.I.
 

Economiccrisisbrief3 140125050247-phpapp01

  • 1. Confirmation Bias, Cognitive Dissonance, and Economic Crisis By: Ryan Scott Welch 25 JAN 14
  • 3. Agenda  Confirmation Bias  Cognitive Dissonance  Economic Indicators  Possible Outcomes  War-gaming Scenarios  Timeline  Enemy Situation  Friendly Situation  Responses  Preparations  Questions
  • 4.
  • 5. “If a man is offered a fact which goes against his instincts, he will scrutinize it closely, and unless the evidence is overwhelming, he will refuse to believe it. If, on the other hand, he is offered something which affords a reason for acting in accordance to his instincts, he will accept it even on the slightest evidence.” – Bertrand Russell
  • 6.
  • 7. Crop Circles     Confirmation Bias It is blindingly obvious to most people that crop circles were likely to be man-made when they first starting showing up. Every other explanation – lay lines, alien spacecraft, plasma vortices, ball lightning – is bologna. The entire field of ―cereology‖ is pseudoscience. But serious journalists working for Science Magazine, and for a Channel 4 documentary team, swallowed the argument of the cereologists that it was highly implausible that crop circles were all man-made. A Channel 4 team did the obvious thing – they got a group of students to make some crop circles and then asked the cereologist if they were ―genuine‖ or ―hoaxed‖ – ie, man made. He assured them they could not have been made by people. So they told him they had been made the night before. The man was poleaxed. It made great television. Yet the producer ended the segment of the program by taking the cereologist‘s side: ―of course, not all crop circles are hoaxes‖. What? The same thing happened when Doug Bower and Dave Chorley confessed to having started the whole craze; everybody just went on believing. They still do.
  • 8.
  • 9. Confirmation Bias Confirmation Bias in psychology and cognitive science, confirmation bias (or confirmatory bias) is a tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions, leading to errors of interpretation.  It is a type of cognitive bias and represents an error of inductive inference toward the confirmation of an already held belief.  This is a phenomenon where decision makers have been shown to actively seek out and assign more weight to evidence that confirms their hypothesis, and ignore or underweigh evidence that could disconfirm their hypothesis.  As such, it can be thought of as a form of selection bias in collecting evidence. 
  • 10.
  • 11. Cognitive Dissonance Cognitive dissonance is a discomfort caused by holding conflicting ideas simultaneously. The theory of cognitive dissonance proposes that people have a motivational drive to reduce dissonance. They do this by changing their attitudes, beliefs, and actions A classical example of this idea (and the origin of the expression "sour grapes") is expressed in the fable The Fox and the Grapes by Aesop (ca. 620–564 BCE). In the story, a fox sees some high-hanging grapes and wishes to eat them. When the fox is unable to think of a way to reach them, he surmises that the grapes are probably not worth eating, as they must not be ripe or that they are sour. This example follows a pattern: one desires something, finds it unattainable (OR TOO DIFFICULT), and reduces one's dissonance by criticizing it.
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 15. Economic Indicators  As fears grow of an imminent debt default by Greece world leaders have urged Europe to prevent the euro area debt crisis from spiraling out of control.  The darkening in the global economic outlook, largely due to Europe's debt crisis, has tainted the G-20 presidency of French leader Nicolas Sarkozy. Sarkozy told reporters: "We are very conscious that France and Germany have a particular responsibility to stabilize the euro. We need to deliver a response that is sustainable and comprehensive.―  ―There is a high risk that this crisis further escalates and broadens,‖ German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said.  European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said the ―debt crisis is a fight for the economic and political future of Europe.‖
  • 17. Economic Indicators  South African finance minister Pravin Gordhan said Friday the resources in the EFSF and the International Monetary Fund are not adequate.  IMF chief Christine Lagarde warned last month that the fund's current lending ability, "pales in comparison" to potential lending needs if the euro zone crisis worsens.  China's Premier Wen Jiabao said on Friday rising protectionism is damaging the global economy. "The shadow of an international financial crisis could be removed ... only if we properly handle international trade friction in a more rational way," he said.  Lukashenko has run out of money and he is now selling fear to an angry and hungry population," Belarus' first post-Soviet leader, Stanislav Shushkevich, told The Associated Press on Friday. The national currency, the ruble, has collapsed and inflation is running at a staggering 60 percent.
  • 19. Economic Indicators  U.S. gross domestic product growth is weak and growing weaker. The Federal Reserve's latest regional survey showed even more bad news, with growth slowdowns hitting eight of the country's 12 regions.  The U6 U.S. unemployment rate is now at 13.1 percent, with 102 million Americans out of work. The official rate however is 6.7% but this number is misleading because, due to the weakening economy, many long-term unemployed are only working part-time, or have given up searches and are no longer being counted.  Consumer confidence remains weak, particularly among CEOs, those closest to the ups and downs of the American economic engine. Confidence is critical in the U.S. economy where two-thirds of economic activity comes from consumer spending.  The U.S. housing market — another key economic driver as people who buy homes fill up those places with goods — remains weak. Home prices in Las Vegas, Tampa and elsewhere are down almost 50 percent since the boom days of 2005-2006.
  • 21. Economic Indicators  In July, S&P downgraded the United States' debt rating. The S&P said ―the United States needed to not only raise the debt ceiling, but also develop a ‗credible‘ plan to tackle the nation's long-term debt.‖  The U.S. economy is staring down another recession, according to a forecast from the Economic Cycle Research Institute.  The federal government closed out fiscal year 2011 with an estimated deficit of $1.3 trillion, according to Congressional Budget Office estimates. It was the third straight year that the deficit exceeded $1 trillion.  The U.S. housing market — another key economic driver as people who buy homes fill up those places with goods — remains weak. Home prices in Las Vegas, Tampa and elsewhere are down almost 50 percent since the boom days of 2005-2006.
  • 23. Economic Indicators  I think there is a risk that the U.S. debt default may happen," the adviser, Li Daokui, said at the time. "The result will be very serious and I really hope that they would stop playing with fire.‖  Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the crisis was slowing economic growth in Europe, which he said did represent a threat to the U.S. economy.  The Federal reserve chairman Ben Bernanke has warned that US economic recovery is "close to faltering", and that a "disorderly" default in the Greek debt would have a serious impact.  Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said, ―the size of the problem coming from Europe — I don't think it could be overestimated. I think it's very dangerous.‖
  • 26. Derivatives  The world's second-richest man, Warren Buffett, who is known as "the sage of Omaha", said that the rapidly growing trade in derivatives poses a "mega-catastrophic risk" for the economy . He also said that ―derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction.‖  Former French President Jacques Chirac referred to derivatives as "financial AIDS".  Christopher Cox, the head of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission said that, ―derivatives are the villains in the current collapse of the global financial system.‖
  • 28. Derivatives Heidi is the proprietor of a bar in Detroit ... She realizes that virtually all of her customers are unemployed alcoholics and, as such, can no longer afford to patronize her bar. To solve this problem, she comes up with a new marketing plan that allows her customers to drink now, but pay later. Heidi keeps track of the drinks consumed on a ledger (thereby granting the customers loans). Word gets around about Heidi's "drink now, pay later" marketing strategy and, as a result, increasing numbers of customers flood into Heidi's bar. Soon she has the largest sales volume for any bar in Detroit .
  • 29. Derivatives By providing her customers freedom from immediate payment demands, Heidi gets no resistance when, at regular intervals, she substantially increases her prices for wine and beer, the most consumed beverages. Consequently, Heidi's gross sales volume increases massively. A young and dynamic vice-president at the local bank recognizes that these customer debts constitute valuable future assets and increases Heidi's borrowing limit. He sees no reason for any undue concern because he has the debts of the unemployed alcoholics as collateral!
  • 30. Derivatives At the bank's corporate headquarters, expert traders figure a way to make huge commissions, and transform these customer loans into DRINKBONDS. These "securities" then are bundled and traded on international securities markets. Naive investors don't really understand that the securities being sold to them as "AAA Secured Bonds" really are debts of unemployed alcoholics. Nevertheless, the bond prices continuously climb and the securities soon become the hottest-selling items for some of the nation's leading brokerage houses.
  • 31. Derivatives One day, even though the bond prices still are climbing, a risk manager at the original local bank decides that the time has come to demand payment on the debts incurred by the drinkers at Heidi's bar. He so informs Heidi. Heidi then demands payment from her alcoholic patrons. But, being unemployed alcoholics -- they cannot pay back their drinking debts. Since Heidi cannot fulfill her loan obligations she is forced into bankruptcy. The bar closes and Heidi's 11 employees lose their jobs.
  • 32. Derivatives The collapsed bond asset value destroys the bank's liquidity and prevents it from issuing new loans, thus freezing credit and economic activity in the community. The suppliers of Heidi's bar had granted her generous payment extensions and had invested their firms' pension funds in the BOND securities. They find they are now faced with having to write off her bad debt and with losing over 90% of the presumed value of the bonds.
  • 33. Derivatives Overnight, DRINKBOND prices drop by 90%. Her wine supplier also claims bankruptcy, closing the doors on a family business that had endured for three generations, her beer supplier is taken over by a competitor, who immediately closes the local plant and lays off 150 workers. Now do you understand?
  • 35. Derivatives    "Today there is a horrific derivatives bubble that threatens to destroy not only the U.S. economy but the entire world financial system as well. Basically, derivatives are financial instruments whose value depends upon or is derived from the price of something else. A derivative has no underlying value of its own. It is essentially a side bet. Originally, derivatives were mostly used to hedge risk and to offset the possibility of taking losses. But today it has gone way, way beyond that. Today the world financial system has become a gigantic casino where insanely large bets are made on anything and everything that you can possibly imagine. The derivatives market is almost entirely unregulated and in recent years it has ballooned to such enormous proportions that it is almost hard to believe. Today, the worldwide derivatives market is approximately 20 times the size of the entire global economy. Because derivatives are so unregulated, nobody knows for certain exactly what the total value of all the derivatives worldwide is, but low estimates put it around 600 trillion dollars and high estimates put it at around 1.5 quadrillion dollars.
  • 37. Derivatives   Do you know how large one quadrillion is? 1,000,000,000,000,000. Counting at one dollar per second, it would take 32 million years to count to one quadrillion. To put that in perspective, the gross domestic product of the United States is only about 15 trillion dollars and 1.5 quadrillion is 100 times that. So when you are talking about 1.5 quadrillion dollars, you are talking about an amount of money that is almost inconceivable. So what is going to happen when this insanely large derivatives bubble pops? Well, the truth is that the danger that we face from derivatives is so great that Warren Buffet has called them "financial weapons of mass destruction". It would be hard to understate the financial devastation that we could potentially be facing. A number of years back, French President Jacques Chirac referred to derivatives as "financial AIDS". The reality is that when this bubble pops there won't be enough money in the entire world to fix it. But ignorance is bliss, and most people simply do not understand these complex financial instruments enough to be worried about them. Unfortunately, just because most of us do not understand the danger does not mean that the danger has been eliminated.
  • 39. Derivatives    The hedge-fund and derivatives markets are so highly complex and technical that even many top economists and investment-banking professionals don't fully understand them. Moreover, both the hedge-fund and the derivatives markets are almost totally unregulated, either by the U.S. government or by any other government worldwide. Most Americans don't realize it, but derivatives played a major role in the financial crisis of 2007 and 2008. Do you remember how AIG was constantly in the news for a while there? Well, they weren't in financial trouble because they had written a bunch of bad insurance policies. What had happened is that a subsidiary of AIG had lost more than $18 billion on Credit Default Swaps (derivatives) it had written, and additional losses from derivatives were on the way which could have caused the complete collapse of the insurance giant. So the U.S. government stepped in and bailed them out - all at U.S. taxpayer expense of course. But the AIG incident was actually quite small compared to what could be coming. The derivatives market has become so monolithic that even a relatively minor imbalance in the global economy could set off a chain reaction that would have devastating consequences. In his recent article on derivatives, Webster Tarpley described the central role that derivatives now play in our financial system...
  • 41. Derivatives   Far from being some arcane or marginal activity, financial derivatives have come to represent the principal business of the financier oligarchy in Wall Street, the City of London, Frankfurt, and other money centers. A concerted effort has been made by politicians and the news media to hide and camouflage the central role played by derivative speculation in the economic disasters of recent years. Journalists and public relations types have done everything possible to avoid even mentioning derivatives, coining phrases like “toxic assets,” “exotic instruments,” and – most notably – “troubled assets,” as in Troubled Assets Relief Program or TARP, aka the monstrous $800 billion bailout of Wall Street speculators which was enacted in October 2008 with the support of Bush, Henry Paulson, John McCain, Sarah Palin, and the Obama Democrats. One day some event will happen which will cause a sudden shift in world financial markets and trillions of dollars of losses in derivatives will create a tsunami that will bring the entire house of cards down. All of the money in the world will not be enough to bail out the financial system when that day arrives. Soon enough we will all pay the price, and when that disastrous day comes, most Americans will still not understand what is happening. - http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article21764.html
  • 42. The $1.5 QUADRILLION Derivatives Bubble That's $1,500,000,000,000 Derivatives
  • 43. Derivatives  Unless this derivatives problem is resolved, there is no way the world economy is not headed towards a massive 20-30 years Great Depression.  The current estimated US$14 Trillion of bailout, guarantees, loans… by the US government will not revive the economy. It is simply trying to paper over the $1.5 Quadrillion (1000 Trillion) derivatives problem. No amount of money can paper over this financial black hole.
  • 45. Economic Indicators  The global economy is rapidly descending into the chaos of a Second World Economic Depression of catastrophic proportions. In the year since the collapse of Bear Stearns, we have moved toward the disintegration of the entire globalized world financial system, based on the residual status of the US dollar as a reserve currency, and expressed through the banking hegemony of London, New York, and the US-UK controlled international lending institutions like the International Monetary fund and the World Bank. This is a breakdown crisis of world civilization, prepared over decades by the folly of deindustrialization and the illusions of a postindustrial society, ….. If current policies are maintained, we face the acute danger of a terminal dollar disintegration and world hyperinflation.
  • 47. Economic Indicators    1 – Back in the 1930s, tens of millions of Americans lived on farms or knew how to grow their own food. Today the vast majority of Americans are totally dependent on the system for even their most basic needs. 2 – A vast horde of Baby Boomers is expecting to retire, and the ―Social Security trust fund‖ has nothing but 2.5 trillion dollars of government IOUs in it. According to an official U.S. government report, rapidly growing interest costs on the U.S. national debt together with spending on major entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare will absorb approximately 92 cents of every dollar of federal revenue by the year 2019. This is a financial tsunami the likes of which Americans back in the 1930s could never have even dreamed of. 3 – American workers never had to compete for jobs with workers on the other side of the world back in the 1930s. But today, millions upon millions of our jobs have been ―outsourced‖ to China, India and a vast array of third world nations where desperate workers are more than happy to slave away for big global corporations for less than a dollar an hour. How in the world are American workers supposed to compete with that?
  • 49. Economic Indicators   4 – Back in the 1930s, there was nothing like the gigantic derivatives bubble that hangs over us today. The total value of all derivatives worldwide is estimated to be somewhere between 600 trillion and 1.5 quadrillion dollars. The danger that we face from derivatives is so great that Warren Buffet has called them ―financial weapons of mass destruction‖. When this bubble pops there won‘t be enough money in the entire world to fix it. 5 – During the Great Depression, the United States economy was relatively self-contained. But today we truly do live in a global economy. Unfortunately that means that a severe economic crisis in one part of the world is going to affect us as well. Right now, the United States is far from alone in dealing with a massive debt crisis. Greece, Spain, Italy, Hungary, Portugal and a number of other European nations are in real danger of actually defaulting on their debts. Japan (the third biggest economy in the world) is on the verge of complete and total economic collapse. So what happens to the U.S. economy when the dominoes start to fall?
  • 51. Possible Outcomes Dollar Collapse  Causes  Underlying Economic Weakness  Viable Alternative: Gold or New Currency  Russian President Dmitry Medvedev suggested creating― a new reserve currency" to replace the dollar. Chinese central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan also proposed a new reserve currency, one "disconnected from individual nations." Even Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has said he's "open" to the idea.
  • 53. Possible Outcomes Triggering Event A slight but sudden rise in the price of a necessary commodity which will cause all commodities to rise. Internal instability/riots (Occupy movement) Terrorist attack Natural disaster
  • 54.
  • 55. Possible Outcomes  Results Hyperinflation - 95% of all historic cases of hyperinflation it begins during either a deflationary depression or deep deflationary recession
  • 56.
  • 57. Hyperinflation  Hyperinflation  Hyperinflation is the loss of faith in the currency. Prices rise in a hyperinflationary environment just like in an inflationary environment, but they rise not because people want more money for their labor or for commodities, but because people are trying to get out of the currency. It‘s not that they want more money — they want less of the currency: So they will pay anything for a good which is not the currency.
  • 58.
  • 59. Hyperinflation Instances Germany 1920-1923 Russia 1921-1924 Austria 1921-1922 Poland 1922-1924 Hungary 1922-1924 Greece 1943-1944 Hungary 1945-1946 3.25 million percent 213 percent 134 percent 275 percent 98 percent 8.55 billion percent 4.19 quintillion percent
  • 60.
  • 61. Hyperinflation Instances con‘t Argentina 1984-1997 Brazil 1980-1994 Bolivia 1980-1994 Peru 1981-1989 Yugoslavia 1993-1994 Zaire 1988-1997 3,086 percent 30,377 percent 14,700 percent 3,000 percent 5 quadrillion percent 24,000 percent
  • 62.
  • 63. Hyperinflation  As the government becomes more desperate for cash, they will increase the flow of paper money (fiat currency) until the entire financial system becomes insoluble. As the American dollar weakens, foreign countries will sell their bonds (or not renew the purchase of their treasury bills) and flood the market with devalued currency. You can expect inflation like the U.S. has never experienced. The cost of items will skyrocket and your wages will stay the same (or you will be laid off). Those in power will blame the free market and capitalism but the real cause of the fall will be their years of failed economic policies.
  • 64.
  • 65.
  • 66.
  • 67.
  • 68.
  • 69.
  • 70.
  • 71.
  • 72.
  • 75.    When asked about the timing of hyperinflation in the United States John Williams of Shadowstats stated, “That’s the type of thing that could happen at any time, all of the fundamentals are in place. I do think we’re going to have a dollar crisis. I can’t give you the precise timing on it, but circumstances are negative for the dollar in terms of relative political stability. When you look at our government here we can’t control the fiscal conditions. Our trade deficit is continuing to deteriorate, that’s a negative for the dollar, inflation is rising on a relative basis, that’s a negative for the dollar. The Fed although it is officially ending QE2, most likely is going to come back with a QE3 and that will debase the dollar and if we are going to debase the dollar the rest of the world generally is not going to want to hold it.” When asked how quickly could we see a dollar collapse Williams responded, “It could happen very quickly, but they (the Fed) will try to forestall it as much as they can. When you do get a real panic it may not be containable. What we’re now seeing in the pickup in inflation here eventually will be seen as the beginnings of it.”
  • 76. Enemy Situation  Marxists  Anarchists  Socialists  Jihadists  Gangs  Drug Lord Organizations
  • 77. Friendly Forces  Family  Church  Neighbors  Local Community  Associations  Tea Party or other groups  Local Emergency Response Teams
  • 78. Responses          Stay Calm Find Your Family at a Rally Point 72 Hour Kit Execute Movement Plan Make Alliances Plan Self Defense Reduce Waste Grow Crops Plan to Secure Long Term Food Supply
  • 79. Preparations    How to overcome and prepare for hyperinflation. The next depression will be 20 to 30 years and make the first depression look like a picnic. Hyperinflation will be the beginning and the true economic impact will take a very long time to correct. These steps will help you weather the economic storm. Pay off your debt – As prices increase keeping up with payments will be extremely difficult. Too much debt will force you to lose your home, vehicles, and you will struggle to make ends meet. You will need all the money you make just to buy food. Avoid large homes, credit card debt, excess student loans, and new car purchases.
  • 80. Preparations   Buy tangible goods – While gold and silver play a role in shifting to a new currency don’t overlook things you can use in the shorterm. Barter will be popular again and having long term food storage, kerosene, medical supplies, seeds, and luxuries like toilet paper or chocolate can help you when there are shortages. In the mid term gold and silver will be very important but don’t over look the basics of daily life. Invest in things that are inflation resistant – Invest in economic sectors that can raise their prices or adjust their value as the prices increase. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), commodities (like oil and metals), and real estate are generally safe bets to overcome inflation. Make sure your loans have fixed interest rates. Expect to pay extremely high interest rates (in the 20% range) and expect to put much larger down payments down.
  • 81.   Strengthen the family – Family ties and local communities/churches will help those that are struggling (sorry government programs will not be there to help; think Katrina). Those on fixed income or welfare will be the hardest hit by economic problems. The traditional family unit has stood the test of time for good reason. Grandma and grandpa will be moving in and you might need to take care of your siblings too. Learn how to grow food – Plant a garden and learn how to preserve food. If possible raise chickens for eggs and goats or cows for milk. Canning fruits and vegetables will be common. Stock your root cellar. Learn how to make your soil healthy and nutrient rich without buying fertilizer (e.g. learn how to compost). Avoid hybrid seeds because after the first crop the next batch of seeds will provide inferior and low yield crops. Buy heirloom seeds and plant them. Harvest seeds for next year.
  • 82. Preparations    Buy bulk food and learn how to use it – Start using wheat by grinding it and baking with it. Find recipes that call for use of basic stable grains like rice, beans, wheat, and lentils. Get all the education you can – Finish your degree, learn new skills, get certificates in your area of expertise. The job market will be extremely competitive and all the extra skills you have will give you the edge. Diversify your income – Start side businesses, turn your hobbies into income, or consider rental property. Try to get income from as many different sources as possible.
  • 83. Preparations    Learn to do more with less - This requires some creative thinking when shopping, using what you have, and throwing things away. Many times you don’t need something new, you need to use something you already have. Instead of throwing something away consider repairing it or re-purposing it as something else (e.g. using old jeans to make a quilt). Buying quality products instead of cheap Chinese crap. You’ll need things to last longer. Start now by buying quality instead of cheap quantity. Stay positive – Your mindset and your positive attitude will be your biggest asset. While these will be trying times you can still choose what makes you truly happy. If you are attached to material objects start now by weening your way off new technology, a home that’s too big, and cars you can’t afford. Learn to enjoy the simple things in life and the company of the people you love. THINGS TO AVOID – Avoid Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMS), Bonds, and Debt
  • 84. Preparations    BUY FARM LAND GROW YOUR OWN FOOD. LIVE NEAR PEOPLE AND BEGIN TO MAKE ALLIANCES OF SKILLS (BARTER) LIVE NEAR FARM LAND ELECTRONICS FREE PAPER COPIES OF IMPORTANT DOCUMENTS KNOW WHERE YOUR DEEDS ARE. TAKE THEM IN EMERGENCY BUY A VEHICLE- CONSIDER SOMETHING PRIOR TO 1979 FIX YOURSELF COLLEGE/SCHOOL APPRENTICESHIPS ARE THE FUTURE. DISCUSS THE VALUE OF SCHOOL FOR WHAT YOU CAN EARN. DO NOT LOOK FOR LABELS THEY WILL BECOME MEANINGLESS (YALE) FIND OTHER FORMS OF SCHOOL. ON LINE. DEMAND MERIT FROM SCHOOL AND STUDENT OR PULL YOUR TIME/ $ EDUCATE YOURSELF AT ALL TIMES. ALWAYS READ. HAVE A HARD COPY OF IMPORTANT BOOKS AND DOCUMENTS LEARN OLD AND OR LOST PRACTICES. MENDING/CANNING/FARMING LEARN TO FIX AN ENGINE RE-LEARN READING A MAP KNOW THE NEWS. LIFE CAN CHANGE QUICKLY. BE ABLE TO DEFEND YOUR POSITIONS BY KNOWING THE OTHER SIDE
  • 85. Preparations   TRADITIONS PRESERVE WHAT IS IMPORTANT. SHED ALL OTHERS. CONSERVE AND PRESERVE. RECLAIM AND RESTORE. MONEY GOLD, FOOD, CIGARETTES, LIQUOR, SUGAR, AMMUNITION, GUNS, SEEDS, SKILLS (BARTER) KNOWLEDGE HAVE 30 DAYS CASH ON HAND BUY A HOUSE STOP ALL EXCESS SPENDING. BUY QUALITY ONLY. FORGET FASHION ONLY MEASURE TWICE – CUT ONCE. DO NOT WASTE. CONSIDER A FUEL EFFICIENT – SUV/TRUCK
  • 86. Preparations    LOCATION LIVE NEAR LIKE MINDED PEOPLE. TEXAS, MOUNTAINS OR WHERE GOD STILL PLAYS A ROLE IN REAL LIFE IF YOU CANNOT MOVE (NO PLACE WILL BE UNTOUCHED) CREATE NETWORK BUSINESS/WORK BE THE BEST YOU CAN BE. BE THE ONE EMPLOYEE NO ONE CAN FIRE SMALL BIZ – BE THE PRODUCT OR SERVICE NO ONE CAN CANCEL CONSERVE AND PRESERVE LEARN FROM THE DEPRESSION ADVERTISE WHEN NO ONE ELSE IS STAY IN BUSINESS BUT DOWNSIZE AND PRESERVE (ARCH) HONESTY, INTEGRITY AND CHARITY. BE GEORGE BAILEY SPIT YOURSELF OUT OF THE SYSTEM. TURN UPSIDE DOWN NOW PUT YOUR MONEY WHERE YOUR HEART IS DO BUSINESS IN SYMBIOTIC WAYS – WE NEED EACH OTHER DO NOT TRY TO PUT OTHERS OUT OF BUSINESS, LET THEM DO IT. GIMBLES AND MACYS NEVER BE THE SMARTEST MAN IN THE ROOM TAKE CARE OF YOUR EMPLOYEES THE BEST YOU CAN. TAKE LESS AND GIVE MORE READ FRANKLIN AND WASHINGTON
  • 87. Preparations   LIFE DO NOT PLAN YOUR LIFE AND THEN MOVE. PLAN, LISTEN AND OBEY PRACTICE AT LEAST FRANKLINS AMERICAN RELIGION SERVE HONOR ALL OF YOUR OBLIGATIONS PRESERVE – FOOD, TIME, MONEY, ENERGY TEACH YOUR CHILDREN THE BASICS. VALUES/PRINCIPLES DO WITH LESS NOW. LESS OF A SHOCK IF IT COMES LATER SERVE/SHARE JOIN A 9.12 GROUP. LINK ON LINE. PHONE AND LOCATIONS HAVE A MEETING PLACE ESTABLISHED FOR FAMILY READ THE BIBLE HAVE A GUN AND KNOW HOW TO SHOOT IT. RESOLVE THOSE ISSUES THAT ARE HOLDING YOU BACK STOP ALL BEHAVIOR THAT DOES NOT EXPAND YOU OR OTHERS INTO GOOD MAKE AMENDS FOR WHAT YOU HAVE DONE FIND PEACE AND GET TO WORK TEACH CHILDREN WORK ETHIC TOLERATE NOTHING THAT YOU FEEL IS WRONG BY REMAINING SILENT LET YOUR CHILDREN SEE YOU STAND BE HONORABLE IN ALL OF YOUR DEALINGS UNDERSTAND THAT ANGER IS A PART OF LIFE BUT NEVER FEED IT THE FIRST LOOK IS NOT A PROBLEM. IT IS THE SECOND LOOK. NEVER BE THE BEST MAN/WOMAN IN THE ROOM. BE HAPPY AND OPTIMISTIC. LIFE WILL GO ON. MAKE PLANS FOR THE FUTURE. GET MARRIED. HAVE CHILDREN.