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Know a Leader - David Shaw - Rubber & Tyre

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The future will see a lot of machinery makers; some will be based in Asia; some in Europe and some in the Americas. It will become a lot more difficult to guess which offer high tech and high prices or low tech and low prices simply by looking at their country of origin, says David Shaw, CEO of Tire Industry Research, in an exclusive interview with Rubber Machinery World.

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Know a Leader - David Shaw - Rubber & Tyre

  1. 1. INTERVIEW WITH DAVID SHAWCEO - Tire Industry Research Know A LEADERIn 10 Questions Rubber & Tyre http://rubbermachineryworld.com 11 Innovations in Tyre Building 30 Machinery Advice 24 India or China? 21 Sustainable Tyres15 Machinery Developments
  2. 2. This quote aptly summarizes David Shaw. True leaders are few and probably the main reason (when we find one!), we look towards them for inspiration and guidance regularly. (or Dave to his friends and well-wishers), is aDavid Shaw tall leader and a global expert on the international tire and rubber industry. I consider it a privilege to know him and present his thoughts to you in this special edition. Dave has studied tire manufacturing, raw materials, processes and technologies and how they vary around the world. This deep technical knowledge, built up over 25 years combined with a thorough understanding of branding, pricing and distribution channels, gives him a unique advantage to analyse regional and global strategies in car, light truck, heavy truck & speciality tires. With exceptional knowledge, clarity, relevance and insight, Dave offer both overviews and detailed analyses of companies, markets, sectors, segments and regions as a strategy consultant. Once you finish reading his passionate interview, you will agree when I say that I felt sad, we could ask him only 10 questions under our format. But hey! you can always reach Dave on his site .www.TireIndustryResearch.com I hope you find this interview insightful and informative. As always, I welcome your feedback on rubbermachineryworld@gmail.com. Best Regards Prasanth Warrier | Interviewer’s Note | “A leader is one who knows the way, goes the way and shows the way” - John C. Maxwell True leaders are few and probably the main reason (when we find one!), we look towards them for inspiration and guidance regularly. 3 rubbermachineri rubbermachineryworld +Rubbermachineryworld1 grp/home?gid=8252803 rubbermachineri Know A Leader - Rubber Machinery World DEC 2015|
  3. 3. 4 | LEADER - INTERVIEW | Know A Leader - Rubber Machinery World DEC 2015| “Soon after 1989, it became clear to me that the rubber industry was one that I enjoyed and wanted to be a part of”
  4. 4. | LEADER - INTERVIEW | Know A Leader - Rubber Machinery World DEC 2015| 5 From Engineering Design EducationPW: Officer to a global expert on the tyre and rubber industry is an amazing transition. Looking back, was this a goal-oriented shift for you or an outcome of opportun- ities that presented itself at various moments of your career? Would you highlight the keys for your success? Very soon after I joined ERJ (EuropeanDS: Rubber Journal) back in 1989, it became clear to me that the rubber industry was one that I enjoyed and wanted to be a part of. This industry is full of experts who have been in the business for many years and have an intimate understanding of the behaviour of rubber, steel cord and other ingredients. In addition, it is a relatively small industry to the point where, after a few years, you begin meeting the same people at events from Hanover to Shanghai and South Carolina to New Delhi. Four years ago ERJ came under new management. After some soul-searching, I decided to leave and to set up on my own. In that time, I have learned that the PRASANTH WARRIER (PW): Hello David. First of all thank you for accepting an interview with Rubber Machinery World (RMW) and sharing your thoughts. Hi Prasanth. First, may I congratulate you on your initiatives in theDAVID SHAW (DS): rubber machinery business. I have been following your progress and wish you the very best of success in this new venture. Also, I feel honoured that you have invited me to participate in this enterprise. Thanks Dave. The pleasure and privilege is mine.PW: industry is transforming due to geographic changes and technological changes and that there is a new type of person coming into this industry who has great expertise in sales or marketing, but needs rapid access to knowledge and insights about the rubber and tyre sector. Part of what I do is to help those people with some analyses of different aspects of this complicated industry. When I set up my company, I saw a great need in the industry for detailed insight into a series of key issues. Those were, in order of priority, sustainability issues and China. I set out to write the definitive reports analysing those issues – and a few others. Those first two reports are now available through my website at www.TireIndustryResearch.com As the editor of a leading journal, IPW: believe you have met 'who's who' in the industry over 25+ years. What were the interesting experiences that deeply influenced your thinking on tyre industry? You are right – it has been a fascinatingDS: ride. I have been fortunate indeed to meet
  5. 5. 6 | LEADER - INTERVIEW | Know A Leader - Rubber Machinery World DEC 2015| with hundreds of very senior people in this industry and ask them difficult questions. Perhaps even more surprising is that these wonderful people have found the time to respond to those questions in thoughtful and considerate ways. In exchange, I hope that I can bring new insights. Through conversations with many people from different companies and different parts of the industry, I hope that I can explore the nature of this integrated business all the way from raw materials production to branding, marketing and distribution. For example, the way a tyre is made and the machinery used to make it allows new marketing messages. Equally, the way a tyre is marketed has an impact on manufacturing processes. An example: in tyres the use of 3-dimen- sional sipes delivers benefits in terms of life, long-term performance characteristics and handling, but that is only made possible by new manufacturing techniques such as 3-D printing for moulds and new analytical techniques such as modelling of the strength of rubber to minimise tearing during de-moulding. Another example is the increasing use of silica and silanes in tread compounds. From a marketing perspective, this delivers better fuel economy and wet grip. But in the manufacturing environment it forces a change in the role of the internal mixer. The mixer changes from a non- reactive mechanical mixer into a reaction vessel which has to deal with exothermic reactions; increased corrosion and other challenges. You see all kinds of claims made by marketing teams, and these often reflect new technologies used in the manufacturing environment. Conversely, requirements from customers also drive changes in the manufacturing department. Examples might include the drive to better repeatability or the requirement for short change-over times. “Internal mixer changes from a non-reactive mechanical mixer into a reaction vessel which has to deal with exothermic reactions; increased corrosion and other challenges.” “For example, the way a tyre is made and the machinery used to make it allows new marketing messages.”
  6. 6. | LEADER - INTERVIEW | Know A Leader - Rubber Machinery World DEC 2015| One school of thought endorsed byPW: another expert is that there have been very few changes in tyre industry in the last 100 years. Your views? I saw your interview with JacobDS: Peled. I like Jacob very much. He has been a good friend and teacher to me and has been in the business longer than I have, so I have great respect for his views. He is right to say that there has been limited progress in the fundamental design of much equipment in the tyre and rubber industry, but I think his analysis can be expanded. We have seen huge improvements in the detailed design. Productivity, repeatability and process-flexibility have all improved tremendously in the last couple of decades, albeit in a series of incremental improvements. The introduction of consumer labelling for tyres a few years ago in Japan, Korea and the EU led to a near-revolution in the tyre manufacturing side in which machinery makers were asked to deliver equipment that can make semi-finished components and finished tyres with tight Cpk and Cpp values. Tyre building has changed massively – not only with the introduction of radial designs in the 1940s, but over the last couple of decades the need for more automation and faster size changes has led to a transformation in the design of TBM equipment and especially building drums. Although mixers still use the same principles as original designs of Thomas Hancock, the power of the rotors, the heat transfer capacity and the variety of rotor designs for high shear, intensive mixing and other processes show tremendous creativity and development. It so happens that I believe the internal mixer is close to the end of its development “Productivity, repeatability and process- flexibility have all improved tremendously in the last couple of decades.” 9
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  8. 8. | LEADER - INTERVIEW | Know A Leader - Rubber Machinery World DEC 2015| cycle. I think that in the near future we will see some very significant developments in mixing technology which can overcome some of the limitations of internal mixers when it comes to high-volume, highly disp- ersive mixing of silica in solution SBR and high molecular-weight Nd-BR compounds. PW: Tyre design is a fascinating topic though few people really understand the differences in design between brands. How has the tyre designs really changed during the last 30 years as you witnessed it? What were the key factors driving this change? In my opinion tyres today are barelyDS: recognisable as cousins of their predecessors from just a few decades ago. Of course, they remain black and round, but the similarities end there. When I first started in this business in the 1980s the industry was reactive, moribund and extremely slow to adopt change. During the 1990s we saw a series of innovations in tyre building starting with Michelin's C3M, followed by Pirelli's MIRS, Bridgestone's BIRD and other innovations. These were driven by a requirement to make short runs of tyres as tyre sizes proliferated. Instead of making a production run of 100,000 units, the typical run fell to below 1000 units. Taking a half- day to switch sizes was no longer economic, so machinery makers sought to make equipment which could change from a 14-inch size to a 17-inch size with no downtime. Most of those new production techniques – C3M and the rest – were ultimately too slow or too unreliable for continuous commercial “During the 1990s we saw a series of innovations in tyre building starting with Michelin's C3M, followed by Pirelli's MIRS, Bridgestone's BIRD and other.” 11
  9. 9. | LEADER - INTERVIEW | Know A Leader - Rubber Machinery World DEC 2015| 12 use. Some of them are still are used for small volume or speciality products. Meanwhile the same drivers led more traditional machinery suppliers to develop more automated, more flexible equipment such as the Exxium from VMI's MAXX portfolio. Into the 2000s and we are seeing a total revolution in materials technology. It started with solution-SBRs and the new ability to add functional groups. The revolution continued with high molecular-weight butadiene rubbers which are difficult to mix and process, but offer better rolling resistance than earlier polymers. That revolution continues with nano-scale fillers and their requirement for highly dispersive mixing. Another driver is to use sustainable materials in tyre manufacture. These new materials include cornstarch, orange oil, low-PAH process oils; new resins, guayule-sourced natural rubber and many, many more. In the reinforcement segment we are now seeing hybrid cords mixing aramid with nylon, but also other combinations to deliver combinations of strength and shock absorption. Steel cord has moved from high tensile to ultra-tensile with a consequent reduction in mass of steel and reduction in complexity of wires, but also thinner, stronger wires mean less rubber is needed to coat them. Many of these innovations are driven by a deep need to improve the fundamental physics of filled rubber vulcanisates. A simple e-SBR/carbon black compound has three properties linked together in an eternal triangle: - Rolling resistance (fuel economy) - Wear life (longevity) - Wet grip (safety) For any individual product the balance between the three properties can be tweaked. Americans like longer life, but care less about wet grip or fuel economy, whereas Europeans tend to favour safety over longevity. However, an improvement in one area always means a compromise in one or both of the other parameters. Image of VMI MAXX and EXIUM Tire Building Machines “Another driver is to use sustainable materials in tyre manufacture.”
  10. 10. | LEADER - INTERVIEW | Know A Leader - Rubber Machinery World DEC 2015| This means that the compounds will be more scientifically designed and produced. I also expect that once compounds of this nature have been developed, they will have to be processed with much more care in order to avoid disruption to the filler structures and structure of the inter-penetrating polymer networks. As a result we will see fewer aggressive processing techniques and an increase in low-shear; low-intervention processes. “I also expect that compounds have to be processed with much more care in order to avoid disruption to the filler structures and structure of the inter-penetrating polymer networks. As a result we will see fewer aggressive processing techniques and an increase in low-shear; low-intervention processes.” The key driver in tyres is to expand this triangle to permit all three properties to be improved at the same time. This is the thinking behind the silica-silane revolution started in 1992 with Michelin's Green X tyre. One trend in the future will be to improve dispersion. This will reduce the number of stress concentrations due to filler agglomerations. Other trends will be to develop still further the polymer molecules and to increase the specific surface area of filler particles. 14
  11. 11. | LEADER - INTERVIEW | Know A Leader - Rubber Machinery World DEC 2015| What new ideas are energizing thePW: tyre industry globally? How much of it is related to machinery developments or improvements ? I have hinted above that I think theDS: internal mixer is approaching the end of its product development cycle. Wear rates on tyres are closely linked to the uniformity of the compound on a 10nm – 100nm scale. That's the size of agglomerations of carbon black and silica particles. More discontinuities in that size range lead to greater stress concentrations and consequently increased wear under dynamic loading as seen in hard cornering or heavy braking. Current internal mixers are close to their limit when compounders want good dispersion on these scales, especially when mixing silica which likes to self-agglomerate. I think we will see some very significant changes to the mixing process during 2016. If the industry adopts these new changes – and I am convinced that they will – then the design of compounds and the care of compounds will become a new field for machinery makers. I can envisage whole new classes of machinery which are less aggressive towards the compound. This in turn should lead to lower energy costs and improved product performance. Second, the machinery suppliers have traditionally looked only at initial capital investments by tyre makers with on-going maintenance contracts where they can sell them. They have restricted themselves to the machinery. I suspect that one or two of them will venture into the raw materials supply area. Already we have seen Mesnac investigating some material properties. Today this is largely driven by a need to better understand how these materials can be processed. “Current internal mixers are close to their limit when compounders want good dispersion on these scales, especially when mixing silica which likes to self-agglomerate.” 15
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  13. 13. | LEADER - INTERVIEW | Know A Leader - Rubber Machinery World DEC 2015| I remember a conversation with Ronil Malaney in India a few years ago. At the time he was acting as agent for machinery makers and for materials suppliers. There are strong synergies in that combination. As machinery supplier, you get an idea of the capacity of the factory and so can predict what materials will be needed and in what volumes. As materials supplier, you can get an idea of when a factory is close to capacity and might want to think about expanding, so can time your upgrade suggestions accordingly. Today, profitability for tyrePW: producers is from falling raw material prices, which may not be a true reflection for the future. Strategically, where do you see opportunities for tyre producers to build sustaining profitability while simultaneously adding value to their customers? This is a great question, and I haveDS: blogged about it in some detail. First, I think that tyre makers have, in general, increased margins as raw materials prices have fallen. However, tyre makers in low-cost countries “A 10% fall in raw material input costs represents only 2-3% reduction in total costs of a premium brand, but can reduce overall costs of a Chinese or Indian tyre maker by 6-7%.” Image: From Web 17
  14. 14. Know A Leader - Rubber Machinery World DEC 2015| | LEADER - INTERVIEW | are more exposed to the raw materials prices than those in the developed world. That is to say, a 10% fall in raw material input costs represents only 2-3% reduction in total costs of a premium brand, but can reduce overall costs of a Chinese or Indian tyre maker by 6 – 7 %. This means Chinese tyre makers are at an advantage when raw materials costs are low, as they can cut prices further, or will see a bigger improvement in their margins than the premium brands. As raw materials costs increase, it has limited impact on the premium brands, but a large impact on profitability at the lower end of the price spectrum. Already Chinese brands are having a major impact on tyre sales in most of the developed world, and also in India, the Middle East, Africa and other parts of the developing world. With raw materials prices expected to remain low for the foreseeable future, this gives the low-end brands an opportunity to raise their game in terms of brand recognition and quality. Premium brands can fight back, but only by finding ways to extract more value from the tyre than its simple ability to roll on an axle. Adding value through sensors and data capture will be a big part of the future for premium brand tyre makers. The impact on machinery makers will be to find ways to “Adding value through sensors and data capture will be a big part of the future for premium brands.” Image: Bridgestone 18
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  16. 16. | LEADER - INTERVIEW | Know A Leader - Rubber Machinery World DEC 2015| incorporate the different sensors currently being developed by the tyre makers. These include read-write RFID tags; accelerometers, pressure monitoring devices in the tread package and/or in the valve stem. PW: Are eco-friendly or green tyres claimed by various tyre producers sustainable? What parameters really qualify as “sustainable”? Sustainability is a huge issue in thisDS: business, but the word has so many different meanings to different groups that using it as part of a business agenda has become a little counter-productive, in my view. To an environmental activist, the meaning is clear: save the planet; slash the release of fossil carbon; maintain human rights and land rights and so on. To a business, the meaning includes most of these aspects, but it also involves identifying and managing risks to the corporate business model. Within the first definition, 'Green' tyres (the less eco-damaging variety, rather than just those between the building machine and the curing press) deliver improved fuel economy. Thus, they help reduce the release of fossil carbon consumed in the engine. “All Life Cycle Analyses suggest that upwards of 80% of the total energy footprint of a tyre is generated during the in-use phase, as opposed to manufacture, logistics or disposal.” Depending on the tyre and its application all Life Cycle Analyses suggest that upwards of 80% of the total energy footprint of a tyre is generated during the in-use phase, as opposed to manufacture, logistics or 21
  17. 17. | LEADER - INTERVIEW | Know A Leader - Rubber Machinery World DEC 2015| disposal. Saving 25% of the fuel used during the in-use phase will more than compensate for all the energy consumed during manufacture. These calculations are behind the tremendous thrust to improve fuel economy of tyres over the last couple of decades. This pressure will increase still further. Among car and truck makers, the drive to cut fuel consumption and emissions remains a very strong priority, driven by government legislation. For a vehicle maker, it is cheaper to tell tyre makers to deliver better performance than to develop a new engine, for example. So rolling resistance will remain a key driver for the foreseeable future in all tyre development for OE requirements. As consumer labelling expands around the world, rolling resistance will also be a factor in the replacement market. “For a vehicle maker, it is cheaper to tell tyre makers to deliver better performance than to develop a new engine, for example. So rolling resistance will remain a key driver for the foreseeable future in all tyre development for OE requirements.” Image: From Web 23
  18. 18. | LEADER - INTERVIEW | Know A Leader - Rubber Machinery World DEC 2015| PW: What do you think could potentially change the growth trajectory of the tyre industry? Who would have a greater role – India or China or Someone else? This is a topic of considerable debateDS: right now. Most economists in this business have used projections of economic growth in China as the basis of their predictions of the number of tyres used, and from there they project volume growth for polymers, for carbon black silica and all manner of other ingredients – not to mention tyre building machinery. China's growth has slowed considerably in the last couple of years. Although official data put GDP growth there at 7% or so, the real growth in 2015 is surely closer to 4%. If we put that number into the projections for 2015, then the long-term growth curve is slightly lower. But if that slowdown remains in place in 2016, then the curve drops a little more. If the slow-down continues for more than a few years, the predictions based on sustained 7% growth become more and more obviously over-optimistic. Already we are seeing some famous economic forecasters having to revise downward their projections for 2015 and 2016 and beyond. I don't think we are at the end of this downward revision process. China remains by far the largest producer of tyres in the world. Nevertheless, there is substantial over-capacity there, which has led to severe price competition. The most successful companies are discovering that GLOBAL GROWTH FORECASTS FOR 2016 Source: 24
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  21. 21. | LEADER - INTERVIEW | Know A Leader - Rubber Machinery World DEC 2015| they can avoid import tariffs on China-made tyres by setting up offshore manufacturing in Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Russia and elsewhere. My belief is that China will continue to be important, due to sheer volume, but in the next 5 years there will be a painful shake-out in that country. Nevertheless, Chinese- controlled companies will become increasingly influential in the business, albeit with manufacturing in many different countries. As to India, I see MRF, Apollo, JK, Ceat and other companies with world-class strategic management, skilled workers and an educ- ated and well-travelled management class. I see universities and scientific institutes producing world-class research in India. Clearly, there are opportunities for India- based companies in the global tyre industry. I also see a new generation of managers taking over at some of these companies. Where the father built the business up to serve the Indian customer base, the son is now preparing to move the company into the global arena. India will certainly become a force in the global tyre industry, but I think it will be some years before the volume of tyres made in India can match the volumes made in China today. “My belief is that China will continue to be important, due to sheer volume, but in the next 5 years there will be a painful shake-out in that country. Nevertheless, Chinese-controlled companies will become increasingly influential in the business, albeit with manufacturing in many different countries” 27
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  23. 23. | LEADER - INTERVIEW | Know A Leader - Rubber Machinery World DEC 2015| As a consultant, you interact withPW: machinery manufacturers. What major concerns do you hear them talking about in today's VUCA economy? Forgive, me, I had to research the VUCADS: acronym. I think it stands for Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous. Earlier, I referred to the boring, unambitious years of the 1980s. In those days our crystal balls were clear – we could make some good predictions of the future, even 5 to 10 years out. Nowadays, most of my friends in the business think that making predictions for 5 years into the future is little more than an exercise in futility. That is a problem in an industry where capital investments need to be made on multi-year timescales. In natural rubber we have to plant trees 7 to 10 years before the rubber is needed. Buying a new mixer line represents something like a 10-year view on the business. Setting up a factory could represent a commitment for 20 years or more. With capital purchase we need to work out the cost of ownership and also the investment return, amortisation and break- even points. With large capital projects we are looking at multi-year timescales, so a VUCA economy makes it more challenging to present a persuasive case for large investments to banks or to boards. In the period after the 2008 Lehman Bros collapse, we saw investment cycles drop significantly. Senior management across the industry would not authorise any capital project unless it had a pay-back of under 12 months, or, in exceptional cases, 18 months maximum. That meant larger projects were either put on hold or cancelled. We are not back to those days. I think managements have learned to live with the uncertainty, but that means managers who want to invest in large capital projects need to make a stronger case, using multiple financial scenarios and demonstrating that the business risk can be minimised, even in the downside scenarios. That takes time and all managers today are massively over- worked, so it further adds to the burden of machinery makers' clients. Another major problem for machinery suppliers is that the investment in new tyre factories in China is drying up fast. I think that is a good thing for the industry as a whole, but I know that some machinery suppliers have long relied on projects in that part of the world for their volume. “Another major problem for machinery suppliers is that the investment in new tyre factories in China is drying up fast. I think that is a good thing for the industry as a whole, but I know that some machinery suppliers have long relied on projects in that part of the world for their volume. ” 29
  24. 24. | LEADER - INTERVIEW | Know A Leader - Rubber Machinery World DEC 2015| The companies who failed to hitch a ride on the China bandwagon may find that their fortunes rise again as their more heavily- exposed competitors suffer from the China downturn. Great! And one last question, whatPW: would be your advice on machinery to both equipment buyers and equipment sellers? To both buyers and sellers, I'd say theDS: future will see a lot of machinery makers; some will be based in Asia; some in Europe and some in the Americas. It will become a lot more difficult to guess which offer high tech and high prices or low tech and low prices simply by looking at their country of origin. My advice to sellers would be to explore every way of removing cost without removing value and to develop a deep understanding of the attributes your customer thinks genuinely add value; concentrate on those aspects to exceed the expectations of your customer. To buyers, I'd say look at the total cost of ownership, but also think about the kind of tyres you want to make and assess the performance needed for each operation within that envelope. In many cases, balancing initial cost against overall quality can bring the amortisation time down, so reducing the overall financial risk. “To buyers, I'd say look at the total cost of ownership, but also think about the kind of tyres you want to make and assess the performance needed for each operation within that envelope” RMW 30
  25. 25. Email: rubbermachineryworld@gmail.com ©2015 – ePublished by Rubber Machinery World in DEC 2015 Content For Free eDistribution Download INFORMATION ON EQUIPMENT, TECHNOLOGY, INNOVATION SUPPLIERS RubberMachineryWorld Top 25 Things You Should Know to Discuss with Mixer Rebuilder HOW TO SELECT YOUR RUBBER TYRE MACHINERY? Jacob Peled Pelmar Engineering Andreas Limper HF Mixing Group Peter Haan Siemens AG Arul Shanmugavelu LT - Kobelco Machinery Harish Nene Pracsol Rakesh Sharma AMCL Machinery Insightful Advices From 6 CEOs In si de MM RUBBER Rubber Machinery World Special Supplement SPECIAL DIGITAL MAGAZINES With Focus On ONE KEY THEME ...DIFFERENTLY Gives YOU In-depth Info Practical Solution www. .comracsol KELACHANDRA MACHINES ........... And More Know More On EQUIPMENT SUPPLIERS And Their SOLUTIONS For YOU

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