Simon Henry, Chief Financial Officer at Royal Dutch Shell, presented an overview of the Shell group strategy at the Premium Conference of Société Générale in Paris on 3 December 2010.
Simon Henry - Société Générale in Paris - 3 December 2010
1. ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC
PREMIUM REVIEW CONFERENCE
SOCIÉTE GÉNÉRALE – PARIS
DECEMBER 3, 2010
SIMON HENRY
CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER
1 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010
2. DEFINITIONS AND CAUTIONARY NOTE
Reserves: Our use of the term “reserves” in this presentation means SEC proved oil and gas reserves for all 2009 data, and includes both SEC proved oil and gas reserves and SEC proven mining
reserves for 2007 and 2008 data.
Resources: Our use of the term “resources” in this presentation includes quantities of oil and gas not yet classified as SEC proved oil and gas reserves or SEC proven mining reserves. Resources are
consistent with the Society of Petroleum Engineers 2P and 2C definitions.
Organic: Our use of the term Organic includes SEC proved oil and gas reserves and SEC proven mining reserves (for 2007 and 2008) excluding changes resulting from acquisitions, divestments and
year-end pricing impact.
To facilitate a better understanding of underlying business performance, the financial results are also presented on an estimated current cost of supplies (CCS) basis as applied for the Oil Products and
Chemicals segment earnings. Earnings on an estimated current cost of supplies basis provides useful information concerning the effect of changes in the cost of supplies on Royal Dutch Shell’s results
of operations and is a measure to manage the performance of the Oil Products and Chemicals segments but is not a measure of financial performance under IFRS.
The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate entities. In this presentation “Shell”, “Shell group” and “Royal Dutch Shell” are sometimes used for
convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer to subsidiaries in general or to those
who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular company or companies. ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell
companies” as used in this presentation refer to companies in which Royal Dutch Shell either directly or indirectly has control, by having either a majority of the voting rights or the right to exercise a
controlling influence. The companies in which Shell has significant influence but not control are referred to as “associated companies” or “associates” and companies in which Shell has joint control
are referred to as “jointly controlled entities”. In this presentation, associates and jointly controlled entities are also referred to as “equity-accounted investments”. The term “Shell interest” is used for
convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect (for example, through our 24% shareholding in Woodside Petroleum Ltd.) ownership interest held by Shell in a venture, partnership or company,
after exclusion of all third-party interest.
This presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other than statements of historical
fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and
assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements.
Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations,
beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’,
‘‘expect’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘will’’, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘risks’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘should’’ and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of
factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this
presentation, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for the Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production
results; (e) reserve estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition
properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j)
legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including potential litigation and regulatory measures as a result of climate changes; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries
and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays
in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary
statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal
Dutch Shell’s 20-F for the year ended 31 December, 2009 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov ). These factors also should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking
statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation, 3 December 2010. Neither Royal Dutch Shell nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-
looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking
statements contained in this presentation. There can be no assurance that dividend payments will match or exceed those set out in this presentation in the future, or that they will be made at all.
The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved reserves that a company has demonstrated by actual
production or conclusive formation tests to be economically and legally producible under existing economic and operating conditions. We use certain terms in this presentation that SEC's guidelines
strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC. U.S. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov.
You can also obtain these forms from the SEC by calling 1-800-SEC-0330.
2 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010
3. FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE AND PRIORITIES
EARNINGS PRIORITIES
$ Bln
35
30
COMPETITIVE PERFORMANCE
25
20
PROFITABLE GROWTH
15
10
SHARPER DELIVERY
5
0
-5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Q3 YtD '10
UPSTREAM CORPORATE
DOWNSTREAM DIVESTMENTS/OTHER
CURRENT COST OF SUPPLY REPORTED EARNINGS
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4. HSSE & SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT PRIORITY
STRENGTHENING DELIVERY & ACCOUNTABILITY FOCUS ON SAFETY: GOAL ZERO
Injuries - TRCF per million working hours
Project
profitability
1
Environment Technology Safety '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09
Employees and contractors per million working hours; Shell operated facilities
OPERATIONAL SPILLS
Operational Spills – thousand tonnes
10
Social
8
6
4
PARTNERSHIPS
2
0
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09
Data 100% basis for companies and joint ventures where we are the operator
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5. STRATEGY TIMELINE
MATURING NEXT GENERATION
PROJECT OPTIONS
NEW WAVE OF PRODUCTION
GROWTH
PERFORMANCE FOCUS
2009 2012 2015+
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6. GROWTH INVESTMENT
PRUDENT BALANCE SHEET
Gearing %
2009-12 cashflow from operations
30%
Gearing range
+50% at $60 bbl scenario
+80% at $80 bbl scenario
20%
Reduced costs + growth
Surplus cashflow 2012 > $60 bbl
10%
after dividends
0%
Q205 Q206 Q207 Q208 Q209 Q310
2012 ASSUMES NORMALIZED DOWNSTREAM AND NATURAL GAS ENVIRONMENT
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7. ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC
PERFORMANCE FOCUS
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9. ACQUISITIONS AND DIVESTMENTS
2010 PROGRESS
Finland & Sweden
Statfjord
East Resources LPG business
Shell Haven
worldwide
Heide Refinery
US retail
Eagle Ford Greece Syria
GoM leases
El Salvador
Nigeria
Cosan 21 countries Arrow
Africa
Chile Woodside
New Zealand
Acquisition
Deal Complete
NORTHA AMERICA TIGHT GAS
Divestment DRILLING RIG
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10. DOWNSTREAM PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
ONGOING REFINING PORTFOLIO REDUCTION RETAIL: SIMPLIFICATION & MAINTAINING EARNINGS
Shell refining capacity – Kbbl/d Example: Retail
2002-09
-18% 100%
5,000
2009-12
-15%
4,000
75%
3,000
50%
2,000
1,000 25%
0
2002 2006 2009 2012 0%
% Markets % Earnings
EUROPE & AFRICA AMERICAS ASIA PACIFIC DIRECT & INDIRECT MARKETS EXITS
Reducing refining capacity
Investing in scale and higher refinery complexity
Value driven disposals strategy
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11. ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC
GROWTH DELIVERY
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12. NEW WAVE OF PRODUCTION GROWTH
RESOURCE BASE KEY POST-FID PROJECTS
Longer-term upside
Gjoa
30 AOSP-1 Corrib Sakhalin II
Kashagan Ph 1
CONCEPT NA Port Schoonebeek
SELECTION Tight gas Arthur Iraq SAS
Caesar Qatargas 4 Pearl GTL
DESIGN Perdido Tonga Singapore Chemicals
20 Gbaran
Harweel Gumusut
Ubie Ph 1
Bonga Qarn Alam
NW Amal Steam North Rankin B
• ~11 billion Boe resources BC-10 Gorgon
UNDER Pluto
T1-3
CONSTRUCTION • 12 Upstream start-ups (Woodside)
10 2010-11
• 5 already on stream
ON ON START-UP DATE
DOWNSTREAM
STREAM
STREAM
OIL & GAS 2009
0
2010-11
INTEGRATED GAS
2012+
ON STREAM
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13. START-UP OF OIL SANDS EXPANSION
PRODUCTION AND PROFITABILITY AOSP PHASE 1 EXPANSION
AOSP net cash flows - $ Bln (Shell) Kbbl/d
Expansion 1 JACKPINE MINE ON STREAM H2 2010
2.5 start up UPGRADER EXPANSION 2011
0.3 Base project
2 start up 200
1 100
0.0 0
0
-1
-2
-0.3
-2.5
2000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
CASH FROM OPERATIONS CAPITAL INVESTMENT
PRODUCTION (RHS)
FORECAST AT $ 70/BBL OIL PRICE
AOSP-1 mine expansion on stream
Upgrader expansion start-up 2011
~250,000 b/d capacity built in ~10 years
Next focus: Optimization + debottlenecking
13 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010
14. QATAR: NEW HEARTLAND FOR SHELL
SHELL POSITIONS IN QATAR PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION
• Pearl GTL + Qatargas 4 LNG
• ~3 bcf/d offshore gas development
• Significant onshore infrastructure
QatarGas 3/4 • GTL
• LNG
Pearl GTL • NGLs/Ethane
RAS LAFFAN
PRODUCTION & PROFITABILITY
Shell Qatar cash flow (Pearl + Qatargas 4) - $ Bln Production – Kboe/d
6
PEARL 600
400
3
200
0 0
-200
-3
CASH FLOW -400
-6 PRODUCTION (RHS) -600
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
LNG LIQUEFACTION GTL
$ 70/bbl oil price
14 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010
15. PROFITABLE GROWTH
OIL & GAS PRODUCTION GROWTH
Kboe/d
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
2009 2010 2012 2014
ENTITLEMENT: OIL & GAS
ADDING TO UPSTREAM UNIT CASH FLOWS
ADD A SECOND COLOUR: 2010+ START-UPS,
$/Boe
WHI CH IS DEFINED AS THE 2010-11 +
40 $60/BBL 2012-13 + 2014+ BARS FROM SLIDE 24
$80/BBL
MARCH
20
Courtesy of Qatargas
0
2009 2012 2009+ start ups: 2012
impact
ENTITLEMENT SHOWN AT $70/BBL
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16. ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC
MATURING NEXT GENERATION
PROJECT OPTIONS
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17. MATURING NEW PROJECTS
OIL & GAS RESOURCES DEVELOPMENTS PLANS 2010-11
Billion Boe
Longer-term upside
Clair Ph. 2
North CMOC
America Tempa Rossa
30
Tight Gas Majnoon Full Field Development
Mars-B
Cardamon Appomatox Gbaran Amin Waterflood
> 8 billion Boe Deep Stones Ubie Ph. 2 Champion
resources Vito Rabab/ Harweel Waterflood
CONCEPT Bonga Sabah Gas KBB Malikai
SELECTION BC-10 Ph. 2
20 > 35 new projects North Browse Sunrise
BS-4
DESIGN Prelude
Arrow
UNDER CBM to
CONSTRUCTION LNG
FID TARGET
10
FEED TARGET
ON
STREAM
0
Resources end 2009
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18. MARS-B + WEST BOREAS & SOUTH DEIMOS TIE BACK
SUB-SEA TIE BACKS….. ….. TO MARS-B TLP DEVELOPMENT
Mars A
~2 Km
Mars B
Boreas
exploration well
~5 Km
South Deimos
Exploration well
West Boreas
Drill Centre
Subsea Production System Olympus TLP
6 wells 15kpsi subsea tie-back to Mars B host 24 Slot TLP with West Boreas /South Deimos;
Discovery wells both reused for production ~100 kboe/d; Shell 72%
Flexibility to connect future subsea Capability to drill to >9,100 meters managed
developments depth
Future provision for Water Injection/Gas Lift
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19. AUSTRALIA UNDERPINS NEXT TRANCHE OF
SHELL LNG GROWTH
SHELL GLOBAL LNG CAPACITY GROWTH
Curtis Island
Greater Sunrise
Prelude
Browse
Pluto (Woodside) North
West
Shelf
Gorgon
SHELL FLOATING LNG
NEW HUB EXISTING PRODUCTION HUB
2009 Shell world-wide capacity: 18.5 mtpa
2015 capacity ~25 mtpa (40% growth)
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20. TIGHT GAS: COMPETITIVE POSITION
NORTH AMERICA TIGHT GAS POSITIONS
~40 Tcfe of potential resource
Groundbirch
Deep Basin
Acreage growth (+ 1.3 million net acres in
Foothills
2010)
Pinedale
Resource growth: East Resources Inc. +
Marcellus
Eagle Ford acquisition 2010
Eagle Ford Haynesville JV
High value positions: exploration running
South Texas room, low break-even prices
PRODUCTION GROWTH POTENTIAL COMPETITIVE LIFTING COSTS
Kboe/d Bcf/d Lifting costs $/mcfe
600 Mature Emerging Other Direct Operating Cost
2
500 3.0
400
2.0
300 1
200
1.0
100
0
0 0.0 Petrohawk Ultra Shell EnCana EOG XTO Chesapeake Talisman
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 H1 2015+ Other costs: non-income taxes, transportation and handlings costs and general & administrative expenses
SOURCE: 2009 PUBLIC REGULATORY PUBLICATIONS
20 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010
21. UPSTREAM: INVESTING FOR GROWTH +
PROFITABILITY
Longer-term upside
Investment decisions driven by
Portfolio fit
30 Affordability
CONCEPT
> 8 billion Boe
Profitability
SELECTION
~ 35 new projects
DESIGN Growth potential to 2020
20
Prelude - Australia
~11 billion Boe
UNDER
CONSTRUCTION 2009-12 production +11%
2009-15 LNG capacity +40%
10
~9 billion Boe
ON 3.1 mboe/d
STREAM
18.5 mtpa LNG capacity
~25 countries
0
2009
21 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010
22. SUMMARY
• Upstream growth potential to ~2020
MATURING NEXT GENERATION
• 8 billion Boe resources; 35 new projects
OF PROJECT OPTIONS
• Financial growth in focus
• 2009-12:
NEW WAVE OF PRODUCTION
• Oil & gas growth +11%;
GROWTH
• Cashflow growth: +50-80%
• Continuous improvement + capital efficiency
PERFORMANCE FOCUS • $7-8 billion asset sales 2010-11
• Downstream restructuring
Competitive performance – Profitable growth – Sharper delivery
22 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010
23. ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC
Q&A
23 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 3/12/2010