Royal Dutch Shell plc second quarter 2017 results analyst presentations
1. Royal Dutch Shell July 27, 2017
Royal Dutch Shell plc
July 27, 2017
Second quarter 2017 results
Re-shaping Shell, to create a world-class investment case
#makethefuture
2. Royal Dutch Shell July 27, 2017
Ben van Beurden
Chief Executive Officer
Royal Dutch Shell
3. Royal Dutch Shell July 27, 2017 3
Definitions &
cautionary note
Underlying operating expenses are defined as operating expenses less identified items. A reconciliation can be found in the quarterly results announcement.
The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate legal entities. In this presentation “Shell”, “Shell group” and “Royal Dutch Shell” are sometimes
used for convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer to subsidiaries in general or
to those who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular company or companies. ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell
companies” as used in this presentation refer to companies over which Royal Dutch Shell plc either directly or indirectly has control. Entities and unincorporated arrangements over which Shell has
joint control are generally referred to as “joint ventures” and “joint operations” respectively. Entities over which Shell has significant influence but neither control nor joint control are referred to as
“associates”. The term “Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in a venture, partnership or company, after exclusion of all third-
party interest.
This presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other than statements of historical
fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and
assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements.
Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations,
beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’,
‘‘expect’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘risks’’, “schedule”, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘should’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘will’’ and similar terms and phrases. There are a
number of factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this
presentation, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results;
(e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and
targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and
regulatory developments including regulatory measures addressing climate change; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the
risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs;
and (m) changes in trading conditions. No assurance is provided that future dividend payments will match or exceed previous dividend payments. All forward-looking statements contained in this
presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.
Additional risk factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell’s Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2016 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov
). These risk factors also expressly qualify all forward-looking statements contained in this presentation and should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of
the date of this presentation, July 27, 2017. Neither Royal Dutch Shell plc nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result
of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this
presentation. This presentation may contain references to Shell’s website. These references are for the readers’ convenience only. Shell is not incorporating by reference any information posted on
www.shell.com. We may have used certain terms, such as resources, in this presentation that United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) strictly prohibits us from including in our
filings with the SEC. U.S. investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov.
4. Royal Dutch Shell July 27, 2017 4
Summary Q2 2017 - cash momentum
Underlying CCS earnings $3.6 billion
CFFO $11.3 billion
Q217 dividend $0.47 per share
Re-shaping Shell - on track
Divestments: >$25 billion completed, announced or advanced progress
Projects delivery for 2018 on track
Capital investment – discipline, efficiency and flexibility
Operational excellence and driving down costs
4Q rolling – oil at less than $50 per barrel
$38 billion CFFO
Cash dividend covered and net debt reduced
Balance sheet strengthened: 25.3% gearing
Leader: value
+ influence
Reducing our
carbon
intensity
Shared
value with
society
World-class
investment case
FCF/share + ROCE growth
Conservative financial
management
5. Royal Dutch Shell July 27, 2017 5
Q2 2017
Portfolio updates
Schiehallion redevelopment – start of production V-Power now in >60 markets – differentiated fuels
Prelude – sail away Brazil – first replicant FPSO
6. Royal Dutch Shell July 27, 2017
Divestments progress
6
Divestments
progress:
>$25 billion Vivo Energy
April 26, 2017
Motiva
May 1, 2017
Australia Aviation
May 31, 2017
Oil Sands
May 31, 2017
Corrib
July 12, 2017
Up to $1.23 billion
Divestments
Reduce
capital investment
Reduce
operating costs
Deliver
new projects
Completed in Q2’17
Announced since Q1’17
Divestment programme on track
Completed in 2016 & 2017 $15 billion
Announced $7 billion
Advanced progress >$4 billion
$30 billion 2016-18
$9.6 billion divestment in Q2’17
($6.7 billion in cash)
Portfolio impact included in 2020 FCF outlook
7. Royal Dutch Shell July 27, 2017 7
Capital
discipline and
efficiency
Excludes BG acquisition in 2016
Historical BG Capital investment is based on BG’s published 2014 Annual Report
$ billion
Capital investment
-$20 billion
Shell BG
30
25
2018-20: $25 billion “soft
floor’’
$25 billion p.a. consistent
with the free cash flow growth
to 2020
Divestments
Reduce
capital investment
Reduce
operating costs
Deliver
new projects
Appomattox
Gannet C
Geismar
20% saving compared to
investment promise
>20% cost saved compared to
investment promise
17% saved with respect to original
proposal
Shell interest 79%
175 kboe/d peak
425,000 tonnes
additional capacity
50% equity in the
Gannet field
8. Royal Dutch Shell July 27, 2017 8
Reduce
operating costs:
more than 20%
down since 2014
$ billion $ billion
Underlying operating expenses
Shell
BG
Underlying operating expenses – 4 quarters rolling (RHS)
Divestments
Reduce
capital investment
Reduce
operating costs
Deliver
new projects
Underlying operating expenses measures Shell’s total operating expenses performance excluding identified items
# FTE in SBOs (thousands) Shell Business Operations (SBOs)
7 Shell operated centres
Standard processes, increasing
capability
Scope: functions + business
# of FTE (thousands)
Curlew, UK: Maintenance in-sourcing
Using a marine approach to
maintenance applied on the FPSO
Reducing reliance on vendors offshore
by 50%, reducing costs by 35%
FTE movements
Reduction of 6,500 FTEs in 2016
Reduction of 6,500 FTEs completed
by mid-2017
“Lower forever” mindset
Q2’17 4 quarters rolling
underlying opex: $38 billion
Underlying costs trending
down
Shell BG
9. Royal Dutch Shell July 27, 2017
Deliver new
projects:
~$10 billion
CFFO
by 2018
Divestments
Reduce
capital investment
Reduce
operating costs
Deliver
new projects
Delivery de-risked
On-stream projects ramping
up
BG organic growth from January1, 2016; LNG volume includes offtake; pricing assumes $50 Brent in 2017E + $60 real terms 2016 in 2018
Thousand boe per day / mtpa
Shell project start-ups 2014 through 2018
/ 15
/ 10
/ 5
$ billion p.a.
Production
LNG volume CFFO (RHS)
Mars B
Brazil FPSO 7-10
Brazil FPSO 11-13
Stones
Malikai
Permian + Fox Creek
Gorgon
QCLNG
Prelude
Kashagan
Schiehallion redevelopment
Clair Ph2
Started
Under construction
9
Select key projects
10. Royal Dutch Shell July 27, 2017 10
Safety and
operational
excellence
Availability: Gulf of Mexico, USA Availability: Gumusut, Malaysia
Proactive integrated surveillance
System + leadership
Unplanned production losses
reduced from >5% to 2.7% over
the period ‘15 -‘17
Focus on availability
improvement across
portfolio
Using safety practices and
culture to improve
availability
Use an appropriate
picture
Use an appropriate
picture
Use an appropriate
picture
Availability improved by 6% over
the period ‘12-’17 compared to
‘08-’11 through relentless focus on
reliability
Goal-zero mindset across
operations from safety to reliability
Strong process safety record
98% availability in 2017
Availability: Pernis, the Netherlands
2017 data based on year-to-date performance
GoM: Unplanned production losses on surface facility equipment excluding weather, pipeline and subsurface outages
11. Royal Dutch Shell July 27, 2017
Jessica Uhl
Chief Financial Officer
Royal Dutch Shell
12. Royal Dutch Shell July 27, 2017 12
Q2 2017
Financial
highlights
Earnings and ROACE on CCS basis, excluding identified items
NCI: Non Controlling Interest
Dividend: Dividend distributed
$ billion
Earnings Q2 2016 to Q2 2017CCS earnings $ billion Q2 2016 Q2 2017
Upstream (1.3) 0.3
Integrated Gas 0.9 1.2
Downstream (CCS) 1.8 2.5
Corporate & non-controlling
interest
(0.3) (0.4)
CCS net earnings 1.0 3.6
CCS earnings, $ per share 0.13 0.44
Cash flow from operations 2.3 11.3
Free cash flow (3.2) 12.2
Dividend 3.7 3.9
ROACE (%) 2.5 4.2
Q2’17 vs. Q2’16:
Earnings: + $2.6 billion
CFFO: +$9.0 billion
Free cash flow: +15.4 billion
13. Royal Dutch Shell July 27, 2017 13
Q2 2017
Cash momentum
Earnings on CCS basis, excluding identified items
Cash flow from operations excluding working capital
Cash flow from operations excluding working capital – 4 quarters rolling (RHS)
Strong cash flow momentum
continued from 2016 into
2017
$38bln CFFO (4 quarters
rolling) at <$50/bbl
Average Brent oil price - 4 quarters rolling ($/bbl)
Clean earnings
$ billion $ billion
$99/bbl $43/bbl $50/bbl
14. Royal Dutch Shell July 27, 2017 14
Downstream
financial
performance
Earnings and ROACE on CCS basis, excluding identified items
$ billion
Earnings + ROACE
Capital employed
$52.5 billion at end Q2’17
Cash flow
Working Capital movementCFFO excluding working capital
Refining & Trading ChemicalsMarketing
ROACE (RHS)Refining & Trading
ChemicalsMarketing
$ billion %
Strong cash generation
Competitive returns
15. Royal Dutch Shell July 27, 2017 15
The world’s
largest fuel
retailer
*Source: Brand Finance Global 500
Most valuable oil and gas
brand in the world*
16. Royal Dutch Shell July 27, 2017
Q2 2017
Synergies
*Exchange rates assumed for synergies calculation purposes at the time of BG combination for 2017, 2018
FTE: Full time equivalent
FTE reductions
$3.5 billion synergies by 2018 as per BG prospectus exceeded
$4.5 billion expected by the end of 2017at planned exchange rates*
Exploration synergies
Costs and corporate synergies Synergies target as per BG
prospectus
More synergies, delivered
faster than expected
Synergies included in
operating costs and capital
investment guidance
2016 2017E 2018E
$ billion
Synergies update
Additional
synergies
# of FTE (thousands)
Contracting and Procurement savings
$ billion
16
Shell BG
17. Royal Dutch Shell July 27, 2017 17
Q2 2017
Cash
performance and
distributions
$ billion
Dividend + gearing
UPSTREAM
IG
DOWNSTREAM
/CORPORATE
4 quarters rolling:
Cash dividend covered at
oil price below $50/bbl
Gearing reduced to 25.3%
$ billion
Sources and uses of cash – 4 quarters rolling
Dividend Buy-backs
Gearing (RHS)
%
26.4
Interest paid Debt repayments &
other financing
18. Royal Dutch Shell July 27, 2017 18
Cash flow
priorities 2016-18
Priorities
for cash
Debt reduction Dividends
Buy-backs
& capital
investment
1 2 3
Divestments
Reduce capital
investment
Reduce
operating costs
Deliver new
projects
19. Royal Dutch Shell July 27, 2017
Q3 2017
Outlook
Q3 – Q3 OUTLOOK: Year-ago baseline reflects Shell’s earnings seasonality
Integrated gas
Gorgon start-up partly offset by higher maintenance: positive impact of ~60 kboe/d
Upstream
Divestment impact: reduction of ~190 kboe/d
Production in the Netherlands (NAM): reduction of ~40 kboe/d
Maintenance: negative impact of ~30 kboe/d
Restored production in Nigeria: positive impact of ~90 kboe/d
Downstream
Refinery availability to increase
Chemicals availability to increase
Divestment impacts: reduction of ~240 thousand b/d in oil products sales volumes
2017 OUTLOOK:
Corporate segment: net charge of $350 – 450 million in Q3; $1.4 – 1.6 billion in 2017, excluding the impact of
currency exchange rate effects and interest rate movements
Shell earnings sensitivity:
Brent: $10/bbl Brent +/- ~$5 billion earnings per annum, of which:
Upstream +/- ~$3 billion; Integrated Gas +/- ~$2 billion (4-6 month LNG price lag versus Brent)
Henry Hub: $1/mmbtu +/- ~$250 million earnings per annum
19
20. Royal Dutch Shell July 27, 2017
Ben van Beurden
Chief Executive Officer
Royal Dutch Shell
21. Royal Dutch Shell July 27, 2017 21
World-class investment case
Transformation
ROACE on CCS basis, excluding identified items
Organic free cash flow as CFFO minus CFFI excluding divestment proceeds
2019-2021 Brent price as 2016 RT
Strategy is working
Implementation is on track
Q2’17
4Q rolling
2013-2015
average
Brent
ROACE
~$50
4.2%
~$90
8%
Organic free cash flow $16.6 billion$5 billion p.a.
2019-2021
average
~$60
~10%
$20-25 billion p.a.
22. Royal Dutch Shell July 27, 2017 22
Questions & Answers
Ben van Beurden
Chief Executive Officer
Jessica Uhl
Chief Financial Officer
Royal Dutch Shell July 27, 2017
23. Royal Dutch Shell July 27, 2017
Royal Dutch Shell plc
July 27, 2017
Second quarter 2017 results
Re-shaping Shell, to create a world-class investment case
#makethefuture
24. Royal Dutch Shell July 27, 2017
Q2 2017
Prices & margins $/barrel
Shell oil & gas realisations
$/barrel
Industry refining margins
$/tonne
Industry chemicals margins
US ethane
Western Europe naphtha
NE/SE Asia naphtha
US West Coast
US Gulf Coast coking
Rotterdam complex
Singapore
Oil
Gas (RHS)
24
$/mscf
25. Royal Dutch Shell July 27, 2017 25
Q2 2017
Upstream results $ billion
Earnings Q2 2016 to Q2 2017
Environment Choice
26. Royal Dutch Shell July 27, 2017 26
Q2 2017
Integrated Gas
results
$ billion
Earnings Q2 2016 to Q2 2017
Environment Choice
27. Royal Dutch Shell July 27, 2017 27
Q2 2017
Downstream
results
Earnings on CCS basis, excluding identified items.
$ billion
Earnings Q2 2016 to Q2 2017
$ billion
Earnings mix
Marketing
Refining & Trading
Chemicals
28. Royal Dutch Shell July 27, 2017 28
Q2 2017
Oil and gas
production
Million boe per day
Upstream + Integrated Gas – oil & gas
Million tonnes
LNG liquefaction volumes
Choice
29. Royal Dutch Shell July 27, 2017
Projects under
construction
29
Start up Project Country Shell share
(direct &
indirect) %
Peak
Production
100% kboe/d
LNG 100%
Capacity mtpa
Products Legend Theme Shell
Operated
2017-18 Baronia / Tukau Timur Malaysia 40 65 Conventional oil + gas
Berbigão** Brazil 25 150 Deep water
Clair Ph2 United Kingdom 28 100 Conventional oil + gas
Coulomb United States 100 20 Deep water P
Fox Creek* Canada various 26 Shales P
Forcados Yokri Integrated Project (FYIP) Nigeria 30 50 Conventional oil + gas P
Gbaran-Ubie Ph2 Nigeria 30 150 Conventional oil + gas P
Geismar AO4 United States 100 425 ktpa AO Chemicals P
Lula Extreme South** Brazil 25 150 Deep water
Lula North** Brazil 25 150 Deep water
Permian* United States various 54 Shales P
Pernis Solvent Deasphalting Netherlands 100 50 kbpd Oil Products P
Prelude FLNG Australia 68 131 3.6 1.7 mtpa NGLs Integrated Gas P
Tempa Rossa Italy 25 50 Conventional oil + gas
2019+ Appomattox United States 79 175 Deep water P
Atapu 1** Brazil 25 150 Deep water
Atapu 2** Brazil 25 150 Deep water
Bokor Malaysia 40 12 Conventional oil + gas
Kaikias Ph1 United States 80 40 Deep water P
Nanhai China Chemicals China 50 1.2 mtpa C2 Chemicals
Pennsylvania cracker United States 100 1.5 mtpa C2 Chemicals P
Rabab Harweel Integrated Project Oman 34 40 Conventional oil + gas
Southern Swamp AG Nigeria 30 30 Conventional oil + gas P
* Permian and Fox Creek production represents Shell entitlement share of production. 2017-18: production growth expected between 2016 peak to 2018 peak production. 2019+: production
growth expected between 2018 peak to 2020.
** The Lula, Berbigão, Atapu accumulations are subject to unitisation agreements; production shown is FPSO oil capacity as per operator
2017-18
~430 kboe/d
2.5 mtpa LNG
50 kbpd refined products
0.4 mtpa AO
2019+
~270 kboe/d
2.1 mtpa ethylene
30. Royal Dutch Shell July 27, 2017
Pre-FID options
* Production shown is FPSO oil capacity as per operator
30
Phase Project Country Shell share
(direct &
indirect) %
Peak
Production
100% kboe/d
LNG 100%
Capacity mtpa
Products Legend Theme Shell
Operated
Select Bonga Main Integrated Redevelopment Nigeria 55 112 Deep water P
KGK Expansion Project (KEP 1A) Kazakhstan 29 TBD Conventional oil + gas
Libra 2* Brazil 20 180 Deep water
LNG Canada T3-4 Canada 50 14 Integrated Gas
Sakhalin T3 Russia 28 69 ~5 Integrated Gas
Define Bonga South West Nigeria 43 154 Deep water P
Changbei II China 50 57 Integrated Gas P
Lake Charles LNG United States TBD 16 Integrated Gas
Libra pilot FPSO* Brazil 20 180 Deep water
LNG Canada T1-2 Canada 50 14 Integrated Gas
Penguins Redevelopment United Kingdom 50 40 Conventional oil + gas P
Val d'Agri Ph2 Italy 39 60 Conventional oil + gas
Vito United States 63 100 Deep water P
>350 kboe/d
>15 mtpa LNG
31. Royal Dutch Shell July 27, 2017 31
Divestments
progress:
>$25 billion
Completed in 2016 & 2017: $15 billion
Announced: $7 billion
In progress: >$4 billion
Divestments progress
Divestments
Reduce
capital investment
Reduce
operating costs
Deliver
new projects
$30 billion 2016-18
$9.6 billion divestment
proceeds in Q2’17 ($6.7
billion in cash)
Portfolio impact included in
2020 FCF outlook
Picture
Vivo Energy Australia Aviation
Oil Sands Motiva
Completed in Q2’17
Divestments impact
UK North Sea assets: announced January 2017 1
Oil sands mining + in-situ: completed May 2017 1, 2
Motiva JV exit: completed May 2017 3
Production -162 kboe/d
CFFO -$0.5 billion
Operating expenses -$1.4 billion
Capital investment -$0.2 billion
Production -116 kboe/d
CFFO -$1.2 billion
Operating expenses -$0.5 billion
Capital investment -$0.4 billion
Announced since Q1’17
Corrib – up to $1.23 billion
1 Full-year basis, based on 2016 actuals
2 Represents 60% of AOSP
3 2017 estimates, shown on full-year basis, excluding consolidation effects.
Refining capacity -57 kboe/d
Oil product sales -221 kboe/d
Operating expenses +$1.0 billion
Capital investment +$0.5 billion
Depreciation +$0.4 billion