Royal Dutch Shell plc delivering new growth - New York investor day September 9, 2011

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC

INVESTOR DAY

NEW YORK
SEPTEMBER 2011

1 Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 9 September 2011


PETER VOSER
CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER


DEFINITIONS AND CAUTIONARY NOTE

Resources: Our use of the term “resources” in this presentation includes quantities of oil and gas not yet classified as SEC proved oil and gas reserves or SEC proven mining
reserves. Resources are consistent with the Society of Petroleum Engineers 2P and 2C definitions.

The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate entities. In this presentation “Shell”, “Shell group” and “Royal Dutch Shell”
are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used
to refer to subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular company or
companies. ‘‘S b idi i ’’ “Sh ll subsidiaries” and “Sh ll companies” as used i this presentation refer to companies i which R
i ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell b idi i ” d “Shell i ” d in hi i f i in hi h Royal D h Shell either di
l Dutch Sh ll i h directly or i di
l indirectly
l
has control, by having either a majority of the voting rights or the right to exercise a controlling influence. The companies in which Shell has significant influence but not control
are referred to as “associated companies” or “associates” and companies in which Shell has joint control are referred to as “jointly controlled entities”. In this presentation,
associates and jointly controlled entities are also referred to as “equity-accounted investments”. The term “Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or
indirect (for example, through our 24% shareholding in Woodside Petroleum Ltd.) ownership interest held by Shell in a venture, partnership or company, after exclusion of all
third-party interest.

This presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell All statements other than
forward looking condition, Shell.
statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on
management’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ
materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal
Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements
are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, “scheduled”, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘objectives’’,
‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘risks’’, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘should’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘will’’ and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future
operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward looking statements included in this presentation including
forward-looking presentation,
(without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results;
(e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential
acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to
international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including regulatory measures addressing climate change; (k) economic and financial market
conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or
advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. All forward-looking statements contained in
this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on
p p yq y y y p
forward-looking statements. Additional factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell’s Annual Presentation / Form 20-F for the year ended December
31, 2010 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov ). These factors also should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of
the date of this presentation, 9 September 2011. Neither Royal Dutch Shell nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking
statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the
forward-looking statements contained in this presentation.

We may have used certain terms in this presentation that United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) strictly prohibits us from including in our filings with the SEC.
U.S. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov. You can also obtain these f forms
from the SEC by calling 1-800-SEC-0330.


ENERGY OUTLOOK

GLOBAL ENERGY MIX

Mln Boe/d

Industry outlook
400
Hydrocarbons dominate outlook

300
Growth required in all sectors of energy mix
Energy policy + sustained investment

200

Shell
100 Crude oil & oil products
d l l d
Natural gas & LNG
0 Biofuels, wind, carbon capture + storage
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2050
Petrochemicals
OIL BIOMASS COAL
GAS WIND NUCLEAR
SOLAR
SHELL ACTIVITIES
OTHER RENEWABLES

SHELL ESTIMATES


LEADER IN A GLOBAL GROWING GAS MARKET

GAS DEMAND GROWTH SHELL

Mln Boe/d
30 Traditional LNG
+23%
+189% gas
25

20 +29%

15

+89%
2035

10
008

86%
+86%
20

5
Gas-to-liquids Tight gas

0

North Europe Asia Middle Other
America Pacific East

SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY; WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2011 GOLDEN AGE OF GAS


SHELL

‘GOAL ZERO’ ON SAFETY

Injuries – TRCF per million working hours Million working hours

5 900

4 800

3 700

2 600

1 500

Customer and Profitability & 0 400
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 H1
partner focus performance WORKING HOURS (RHS) TRCF 11

Sustainability & Value added
growth technology
Focus on personal and process safety
Industry leader in Sustainable Development
y p

EMPLOYEES AND CONTRACTORS PER MILLION WORKING HOURS; SHELL OPERATED FACILITIES


STRATEGY & CAPITAL ALLOCATION

STRATEGY CAPITAL INVESTMENT

$ Bln

Upstream
150
Profitable
P fi bl growth; price upside
h i id
>80% of total capital spending
Sustained exploration investment
100

Downstream UPSTREAM

Stable capital employed
Fewer refineries; upgrade chemicals assets 50

More concentrated marketing positions
DOWNSTREAM

Financial outlook 0
2007-10 2011-14
Generating surplus cash flow through cycle
Investing for growth; competitive payout
Substantial cash flow growth

Growth Investment – Through Cycle Returns
h h h l


FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE AND PRIORITIES

EARNINGS PRIORITIES

$ Bln

35

30
PERFORMANCE FOCUS

25

20

15 NEW WAVE OF PRODUCTION
GROWTH
10

5

0
MATURING NEXT GENERATION OF
PROJECT OPTIONS
-5
2007 2008 2009 2010 H1 '11

UPSTREAM CORPORATE
DOWNSTREAM DIVESTMENTS/OTHER
/

CURRENT COST OF SUPPLY EARNINGS


ROYAL DUTCH SHELL
PERFORMANCE FOCUS


PERFORMANCE FOCUS

CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT EXAMPLE: CAPITAL EFFICIENCY

Asset sales - $ Bln (cumulative)
CORPORATE
30 UPSTREAM
DOWNSTREAM
Cost focus
20

10

0
Continuous Operational 07 08 09 10 1H11
Simplification
improvement excellence
EXAMPLE: WELLS MANUFACTURING JV WITH CNPC

Capital
efficiency


DOWNSTREAM VALUE CHAINS

Retail

Business-to-
Refining Business

Supply &
Distribution

Chemicals Lubricants

Chemicals

Trading

3 keys to winning
Operational excellence – Concentrating the portfolio – Selective growth


GLOBAL MARKETING PERFORMANCE

MARKETING REFOCUS

100%
Refocused portfolio + business model
50%
Heartlands + selective growth
• Brazil, Asia Pacific, others
0%
Brand strength + product innovation
g p
'09 '10 '11 '12 '09 '10 '11 '12 '09 '10 '11 '12 '09 '10 '11 '12
YTD YTD YTD YTD
Retail Lubricants Aviation Fuels Bulk Fuels
sites markets markets markets
DIRECT INDIRECT/PART EXIT EXITS

BRAND STRENGTH #1 GLOBAL MARKETER

% Global Brand Preference

20 Retail
Largest IOC fuels retailer
15 # 1 IOC brand preference

10 Lubricants
# 1 global market share
5

0
Biofuels
# 1 IOC Bi f l producer +distributor
Biofuels d di ib
Q2 2010 Q2 2011

SOURCE: GLOBAL BRAND TRACKER


CHEMICALS PORTFOLIO + PERFORMANCE

EARNINGS
CCS Earnings - $ Bln
Base chemicals and derivatives portfolio 2

Plant integration with refineries
l h f 1.5

Growth potential through advantaged 1

feedstock
0.5
05

Product innovation
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 H1 2011

INTEGRATED CHEMICALS USGC BASE CHEMICALS SHIFT TO GAS FEEDS
Evolution of USGC industry cash margins + feedstock slate 450
Mossmoran 350
Scotford
250
US Moerdijk/ SADAF Nanhai
150
Total
Pernis
P i
US Gulf feedslate
Qatar China 50
Coast
Singapore -50
2007 2008 2009 2010
Advantaged Gas Ethane
Key site
K it Liquids USGC Ethane margin
AL JUBAIL PLANT – SAUDI ARABIA
Options USGC Naphtha margin

CCS EARNINGS EXCLUDING IDENTIFIED ITEMS


REFINING PORTFOLIO + PERFORMANCE

FOCUS ON LARGE INTEGRATED SITES IMPROVING PROCESS SAFETY

Refinery capacity Kbbl/d (100%) # API process incidents

400

EXITS 2002-2011 YTD
300

200

100

0 2007 2008 2009 2010 H1 2011

LEAN MANUFACTURING PORTFOLIO REDUCTION
Refining costs index Refinery capacity Mln bbl/d (100%)

110% 5 4.7 -30%
4
3.3
-11% 3
100%
2

90% 1
0
2002 2006 2009 2011 YTD* 2012
80%
2008 2009 2010 EUROPE & AFRICA AMERICAS ASIA PACIFIC

Focus on larger, advantaged sites – Operating performance + cost
EXCLUDES PORTFOLIO EFFECTS SUBJECT TO SUCCESSFUL COMPLETION OF ANNOUNCED DEALS


GROWTH DELIVERY
BIOFUELS GROWTH: BRAZIL
GLOBAL BIOFUELS GROWTH POTENTIAL RAìZEN JOINT VENTURE

Kboe/d production
Marketing JV
3,000 SOYBEAN RAPESEED
PALM OIL OTHER ~4,500 retail sites; ~10% of Shell world
4,500 10% world-
2,000
CORN SUGARCANE wide portfolio
~19% market share in Brazil
1,000
Rebranding and enhanced customer
offering
ff
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 Synergies + growth potential

RAìZEN: LARGEST IOC BIOFUELS PRODUCER
Biofuels
Bi f l JV
Brazilian sugarcane ethanol Leading Brazil and Top 5 global ethanol
player
lowest CO2
• > 30 kbd ethanol production capacity
p p y
most sustainable of today’s biofuels • > 80 kbd potential ~ 5 years
most cost competitive Shell world-wide trading opportunities

2nd generation technology portfolio


ROYAL DUTCH SHELL
GROWTH DELIVERY


GROWTH DELIVERY
CONVERTING RESOURCES TO PRODUCTION
Bln Boe resources
Longer-term upside
35 NA tight gas
Australia
Cardamom Deep
Appomattox Prelude
Prelude Vito AOSP debottleneck
25 10
8 Pearls (CMOC) 8 Schiehallion
Malikai
NA tight gas
Gorgon Mars-B
Clair Ph2
NA tight gas BC-10 Phase2
15
10 11 11
AOSP-Exp 1 Pearl GTL
Sakhalin Gjoa QG-4
BC-10 Perdido
P did Schoonebeek
h b k
5 9 9 Gbaran Ubie 10 Oman EOR
NA tight gas Others

-5
5
2008 2009 2010
ON-STREAM UNDER CONSTRUCTION STUDY PRODUCTION
2011 PROGRESS

Maintaining U t
M i t i i Upstream momentum
t


GROWTH DELIVERY
2011 START-UPS
INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGY, FULL VALUE CHAIN, LONG-LIFE RETURNS

Canada - Scotford upgrader

Qatar - Pearl

Qatar – Qatargas 4 LNG shipment

~ $30 bln capital investment
>400,000 boe/d* for Shell
Underpins target for 3.1 - 3.5 mln boe/d 2009-12
* PEAK PRODUCTION; SHELL SHARE: $80 OIL PRICE SCENARIO


GROWTH DELIVERY
LAUNCHING NEW UPSTREAM PROJECTS
2010 + 2011 YEAR-TO-DATE INVESTMENT DECISIONS
Cardamom – USA Sabah Gas Kebabangan (KBB) - Malaysia
50 kboe/d; 100% Shell 130 kboe/d; 30% Shell; PSC

AOSP Debottlenecking Schiehallion
1st FID
NA tight gas (various)

Cardamom Mars-B

Mars-B – USA Sabah Gas KBB Prelude FLNG – Australia
100 kboe/d; 72% Shell 110 kboe/d; 100% Shell

BC-10 Phase 2 Prelude FLNG

14 FIDs taken ~400,000 boe/d* potential
, / p
Driving 3.7 mln boe/d target 2014 and longer term growth
* PEAK PRODUCTION; SHELL SHARE
ENTITLEMENT AT $80/BBL; 2014 OUTLOOK ASSUMES LICENCE EXTENSIONS + 2010 ANNOUNCED ASSET SALES

GROWTH DELIVERY
DEEPWATER UNDER CONSTRUCTION
MARS-B (GULF OF MEXICO) BC-10 PHASE 2 (CAMPOS, BRAZIL) CARDAMOM (GULF OF MEXICO)
Development concept Phase 1 FPSO Surface System and Subsea View

TLP capacity ~100 kboe/d Peak production ~30 kboe/d Peak production ~50 kboe/d
West Boreas + South Deimos Argonauta O-North field Tie back to Auger platform
Water depth
W t d th 950 meters
t Water depth 1 600
W t d th 1,600 meters
t Water depth
W t d th 830 meters
t
Shell 72% (operator) Shell 50% (operator) Shell 100% (operator)

Part of >250 kboe/d deepwater production under construction


GROWTH DELIVERY
AUSTRALIA LNG UNDER CONSTRUCTION
PRELUDE FLOATING LNG GORGON LNG

First FID ever on Floating LNG Greenfield LNG on Barrow Island
110 kboe/d peak production 3 x 5 MTPA LNG trains and domestic gas plant
3.6 mtpa LNG capacity + condensate/LPG Carbon capture and storage 4 mtpa
2007 discovery; 2011 FID First LNG in 2014
Shell 100% (operator) Shell 25%

Part of 8.3 mtpa under construction


ROYAL DUTCH SHELL
MATURING NEXT GENERATION
PROJECT OPTIONS


MATURING NEXT GENERATION OF PROJECT OPTIONS
ADDING NEW RESOURCES
EXPLORATION & BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT ADDING NEW RESOURCES AT LOW COST

Bln boe
2008

Canada - Duvernay Kazahkstan - Auezov
2009 Australia – Iago 2 Nigeria - Offshore 6

GoM – Cardamom Australia – Libra 1 <$2/boe entry cost

GoM - Vito GoM – West Boreas Brunei – ML-J206T1
Norway – Fram US - Haynesville 4

Canada – Groundbirch

Australia - Concerto ACQUISITION
2
Australia - Arrow
DISCOVERY

EXPLORATION
US - East Resources PROSPECT
0
GoM – South Deimos
US - Eagle Ford Brazil – Massa
GoM – Appomattox Australia - NWS French Guyana -2
Brazil – Gato do Matto China – Tight gas Brunei '08 '09 '10

2010 Brunei - Geronggong USA - GoM Alaska
2011/12 Brazil - DW EXPLORATION ACQUISITION/NEGOTIATED ENTRY

DISPOSALS PRODUCTION


DRILLING TECHNOLOGY UNLOCKS NEW GROWTH

NORTH AMERICA CHINA + AUSTRALIA JVs WITH PETROCHINA

Groundbirch
Deep Basin Changbei tight gas
Foothills North
Shilou CBM

Pinedale

Marcellus Daning CBM

Jinqiu tight gas
h
Eagle Ford Haynesville JV

Fushun tight gas

ACREAGE

TIGHT GAS

COAL BED METHANE

Arrow Energy
LNG

China: Changbei drilling rig


MATURING NEXT GENERATION OF PROJECT OPTIONS
MATURING NEW PROJECTS
INVESTMENT OPTIONS

Appomattox - USA
Arrow - Australia
Long-term growth and investment
Options to flex annual spending with macro
Capex and growth outcomes

Tight Gas – N. America Qatar Chemicals
Investment decisions driven by
Portfolio fit
Affordability
Profitability
Vito - USA Gbaran Ubie Ph2 - Nigeria

Portfolio can support profitable growth to ~2020



FINANCIAL FRAMEWORK
UPDATE

SIMON HENRY
CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER


INVESTMENT PROGRAMME

UPSTREAM DOWNSTREAM
% Capital investment % Capital investment

100% 100% 100%
EXPLORATION

80% HEAVY OIL & EOR
75% 75%
TIGHT GAS

SOUR
60%
DEEPWATER
50% 50%
40%
INTEGRATED GAS

25% 25%
20%
TRADITIONAL

0% 0% 0%
2007-10 2011-14 2007-10 2011-14 2007-10 2011-14
OTHERS AMERICAS
CHEMICALS MARKETING REFINING
EUROPE ASIA PACIFIC

Sustained growth investment
$25 - $27 bln net capex 2011-2014
Capital discipline
2012-14 CAPITAL INVESTMENT EXCLUDES IRAQ FULL FIELD DEVELOPMENTS


CONVERTING INVESTMENT TO CASHFLOW

INVESTING FOR NEW GROWTH DELIVERING CASHFLOW GROWTH

$ Bln
50 $/bbl BRENT

60 $80/bbl
$96/bbl
40
$60/bbl
50

30
40
$62/bbl
30
20

20
10
10

0 0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2009 H1’11 2012
(12 months rolling)
g target
g

CAPITAL UNDER CONSTRUCTION EXPLORATION & EVALUATION CASH FLOW FROM OPERATIONS EXCL. NET CAPITAL
NET MOVEMENTS IN WORKING CAPITAL INVESTMENT
(2009-12 average)

Rebalancing financial framework into surplus cashflow
Maintaining growth investment and competitive payout
CASH FLOW TARGETS ASSUME IMPROVED DOWNSTREAM AND NATURAL GAS ENVIRONMENT 2009-
2012

CASH FLOW AND BALANCE SHEET

CASH PERFORMANCE 12 MONTHS TO H1 2011 GEARING
$ Bln %

60
SOURCES USES 30%

50

Gearing range
40 20%

30

20 10%

10

0 0%
CASH FLOW FROM OPERATIONS EXCL. NET Q206 Q207 Q208 Q209 Q210 Q211
MOVEMENTS IN WORKING CAPITAL
ASSET SALES
ACQUISITIONS
CAPEX + EQUITY ACC. INVESTMENTS
PAY-OUT


COMPETITIVE PAYOUT

MAJORS DIVIDEND PAYOUT RATIOS SHELL PAYOUT

% $ Bln

50 18

45 16

40 14

35
12

30
10
25
8
20
6
15
4
10

5 2

0 0
COMPETITORS
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 H1
DIVIDENDS DECLARED of which:
DECLARED, SCRIP
CLEAN EPS, 4 QUARTERS ROLLING TO H1 2011
BUYBACKS


MATURING NEW PROJECTS: 2011-12

Alaska
Linnorm

Schiehallion Redev
AOSP
Carmon Creek Clair Phase 2
Debottlenecking
1st FID Canada Fram
Quest CCS
Kazakhstan
Tempa Rossa China
US Onshore Pearls-Khazar
Appomattox Majnoon & West Qurna FFD
Gulf of Mexico Qatar Chemicals China refining/chemicals
Cardamom Deep Oman
Stones Fr Guiana Saudi Arabia
Vito Philippines
Rabab/Harweel Brunei
Erha North Ph3
Bonga SW Sabah Gas KBB
Malikai
Prelude Browse
Wheatstone
NWS - GWF Arrow Energy LNG
Brazil Australia

2011-12 2011-12 2011-12
EXPLORATION FEED TARGET FID TARGET
2011 DELIVERY


FINANCIAL FRAMEWORK

CASH PERFORMANCE

~50-80% CFFO increase 2009-12
($60-$80
($60 $80 oil price scenarios)
Surplus cash flow 2012 at $60/bbl

INVESTMENT
PAY-OUT
$25-27 bln net capex /year
Dividend linked to results Up to $3 bln asset sales/year
Scrip dividend option 2012+
~$10 billion expected 2011 Affordability, profitability,
portfolio

BALANCE SHEET

0 – 30% gearing through cycle
Balance sheet underpins
B l h t d i
investment
Capital employed grows
steadily

Competitive returns – cash generation – growth investment
CFFO TARGETS ASSUME IMPROVED DOWNSTREAM AND NATURAL GAS ENVIRONMENT 2009-2012



PETER VOSER
CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER


OUTLOOK

PRIORITIES 2011-12 OUTLOOK

Continuous improvement embedded in Shell
PERFORMANCE FOCUS
Up to $8 billion asset sales; capital efficiency

2011 start-ups: >400kboe/d*; $30bn
investment
NEW WAVE OF PRODUCTION
GROWTH Selective Downstream growth
On track for 2012 cashflow and production
targets

MATURING NEXT GENERATION OF >400kboe/d* new projects launched 2010-11
PROJECT OPTIONS Upstream growth potential to ~2020
U t th t ti l t 2020

Competitive performance – Profitable growth – Sharper delivery
* PEAK PRODUCTION; SHELL SHARE: $80 OIL PRICE SCENARIO


ROYAL DUTCH SHELL
NEW YORK INVESTOR DAY
Q&A


Royal Dutch Shell plc delivering new growth - New York investor day September 9, 2011

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