Here's a slightly edited version of the material I presented at SXSW 2011 in a session called "Will your Technology Survive? Ask a Tree"

1. Huge thanks to:
Stephen Strong, Michael Leis, Robbie Whiting, Gareth
Kay, Eric Goodwin, Eric Reiss, Jay Pattisal, Ed Cotton,
David Terry, Karl Turnbull, Joe Gray, Mark Pollard, Michael
Fassnacht, Chris Miller, Nick Bilton, Faris Yakob, Griffin
Farley, William Charnock, Abby Covert, Eddy Hodgson,
Al Gross, Kevin Drew Davis, John Kenny, Steve Himel,
Finn Brunton, Russ Unger, Eric Vogeleer, Kristin Cavallo,
Peter Totman, Brendan Fitzpatrick, Emily Brennan, Rad
Tollett, Scott Johnson, Dave Knoepfle, Nat Jones, Shane
McDaniel, Ric Johnson, Judy Immel, Bill Taylor, Dawn
Baskin, Claire Grinton, Patrick Moorhead, Bud Caddell,
Stephanie Kelly, Soton Rosanwo, Anna Parker, Marc
Wilson, Leo Ryan, Jason Mitton, Mary Knight, Tom
Trenta, Dave Clark, Sam Yagan, Shane McDaniel, Anna

2. Will your technology succeed?
Ask a tree.

3. "Didn't anyone ever stop to consider that
the machismo laden boast of the venture
capital community that their model
works well, when 90% of VC bets fail,
might, just perhaps, be a little too
forgiving?
-Pip Coburn, The Change Function

4. Getting even a tiny bit better at making
the right bets in the
IdeasxPeoplexTechnology
space would save us a huge amount of
anguish and resource.

5. How are we making decisions on what
technologies will resonate and be
adopted? Game
Designers
Mobile
Marketers
Interviewed 48 developers
Digital brand
successful strategists UX Experts
IxPxT
professionals Tech
analysts
Programmers
working in the Venture
App
Developers
Capitalists
space Game
Social media theorists
experts

6. Q: How does it feel to you,
personally, to work in this
space right now?

10. Why does it feel so exciting/overwhelming?
Probably because technology (the wind) is causing
human behavior (the tree) to change pretty dramatically
and erratically right now.
And that makes guessing the future really tough.

11. Q: Will technology _____
thrive, survive, or wither?

12. We’re basically looking at 6 things:
“My gut reaction. Is it cool, yes or no?” Personal reactions
Spreadability - am I willing to tell my friends about this? Spreadability
Are there similar things in the market that are working? Behavior
How big is the behavioral change
weʼre asking people to make?
Barriers
Will another, bigger player replicate it? Business dynamics
Does it help me do something Iʼm
motivated to do in the first place?
Human nature

13. And perhaps not in the right order
What we
consider
1st
What we
consider
last

14. Our personal reactions definitely matter.
But beware.
We are becoming less and less like our
audience with each passing year.

16. Q: Be totally honest. When you first heard about
American Idol, did you think it would ever be as
successful as it eventually became?
Yes. I could see from the beginning it was gonna be huge. 19%
No. I admit I'm surprised it caught on like it did. 80%
* Informal poll conducted among 88
marketing professionals who ought to be
better at predicting this stuff. 1/2011

17. “There is great danger in
assuming that you are
anything like your
audience.”
- Eddy Hodson

18. "I would never have thought people
would ever tweet about mundane sh*t
and that other people would read it and
like it, so I never get too cocky"
- David Terry
- on the wisdom of
W+K philosophy
"walking in stupid everyday"

19. We are becoming less and less like our
audience with each passing year because...
“The next huge step forward in
technology isn’t a technology, it’s
mainstream people actually being able to
use what’s already out there.”
- Steve Himel

20. So far, introducing tech has been able to talk mostly to “1st
3rd” consumers, who are similar to us
The “1st 3rd”
Smartphone penetration
Tablet penetration

21. “We desperately want to work in the
future. And we need to be careful
about that.”
- Russ Unger

22. Going forward, connecting with the “2nd 3rd” becomes
crucial. And they are very different.
The “2nd 3rd”
Smartphone penetration
Tablet penetration

23. “Now that we have progress so rapid
that it can be observed from year to
year, no one calls it progress. People call
it change, and rather than yearn for it,
the brace themselves against its force.”
- Stewart Brand, The Clock of the Long Now

24. OK. So I can't just use my own feelings as
a proxy.
I'll study the actual behavior of my
audience in the space.
That way I'll know what they'll embrace
and adopt.

26. "Current
"Behavior is behavior is
human nature constrained by
filtered
through
opportunity."
VS technological
barriers that
could disappear
- Clay Shirkey
tomorrow."
- Nick Bilton

27. Your audience's current behavior is
only really useful for what it tells you
about their wants, needs and nature.

28. "Somewhat successful technologies are
built off of observing how people behave.
Really successful technologies are built off
understanding what people need.
- Abby Covert

29. Pay more attention to the roots
Social forces (like technology)
Rapid change
Human behavior (the tree)
Changes quickly and erratically
Human nature (the roots)
Change VERY slowly, if at all

30. “Unless it connects to people on a deep,
visceral and human level, it won’t work.”
- Jon Steel

32. OK, so how do I define human nature?

33. ?

34. Growth
Achievement Inspiration
Adventure Optimism
?
Freedom Virtue
Self Other
Focused Focused
Indulgence Responsibility
Power Caution
Belonging Dependence
Stability

35. ?

36. ?
“All human actions have one or more of
theses even causes: chance, nature,
compulsion, habit, reason, passion ,
desire ."
-Aristotle

37. ?

38. When it comes to technology, evolutionary
psychology can be massively insightful

39. Basic human nature and drives have
remained constant for a very long time.
A handful of those drives seem to lie
behind much of our Internet behavior.
The fact that religion has called out,
named and forbidden behaviors suggests
that powerful elements of human nature
drive them.

41. Vanity

42. Pride

43. Greed

47. But there's a brighter
side to our nature that drives a lot of our
behavior too.

49. Survival
Reproduction
Kin investment
Reciprocity

50. Or brains evolved with specific structures
designed for empathy and reciprocation.

51. This image has been altered to protect the innocent
Richard Dawkins
My mom is having surgery tomorrow morning. Please keep her in your
thoughts.

52. The genius of Facebook is in making the
reciprocal relationships we need easier.
Thinking of you
I can't exactly hit the "like" button here to
reciprocate now, can I?
What if Facebook could make other
reciprocation "like button-easy"

53. The skills and structures we evolved for
face-to-face reciprocation are challenged
by online anonymity.

54. One last deadly sin.
It's so powerful in driving technology-
related behavior that it gets its own
section.

55. Beware Sloth

56. The genius of human nature is that
we're lazy. We got brilliant at figuring
out how to avoid doing stuff by
inventing something to do it for us."
- Jamie Shuttleworth

57. So what does all of this mean to us?
Think of the tree. And remember four
simple rules:

58. One: think about the roots first.
What fundamental human desire or need
is this technology fulfilling? Start there,
instead of checking there later.

59. Two: When we look at behavior,
remember it’s probably constrained.
What’s relevant about behavior is that it
indicates something in our nature that
drives it, not the behavior itself

60. Three: Go broad and deep
into human nature. The more of it you
appeal to, the more engaging the
experience.

61. Four: Remember “we’re simpler
creatures than we’d like to think.”*
Appeal to as basic a part of our nature as
you can. Give us superpowers.
- Mark Pollard

62. Five: Don’t make guesses about human
nature if you don’t have to. Generate
multiple expressions of your idea, and let
people reveal their nature through their
behavior. Then iterate and double down
on success.

63. Huge thanks to:
Stephen Strong, Michael Leis, Robbie Whiting, Gareth
Kay, Eric Goodwin, Eric Reiss, Jay Pattisal, Ed Cotton,
David Terry, Karl Turnbull, Joe Gray, Mark Pollard, Michael
Fassnacht, Chris Miller, Nick Bilton, Faris Yakob, Griffin
Farley, William Charnock, Abby Covert, Eddy Hodgson,
Al Gross, Kevin Drew Davis, John Kenny, Steve Himel,
Finn Brunton, Russ Unger, Eric Vogeleer, Kristin Cavallo,
Peter Totman, Brendan Fitzpatrick, Emily Brennan, Rad
Tollett, Scott Johnson, Dave Knoepfle, Nat Jones, Shane
McDaniel, Ric Johnson, Judy Immel, Bill Taylor, Dawn
Baskin, Claire Grinton, Patrick Moorhead, Bud Caddell,
Stephanie Kelly, Soton Rosanwo, Anna Parker, Marc
Wilson, Leo Ryan, Jason Mitton, Mary Knight, Tom
Trenta, Dave Clark, Sam Yagan, Shane McDaniel, Anna