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Calamander\'s global economic outlook Q1 2011
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Snow White
1.
Snow White
Money, Oil & Politics Global Economic Outlook Q1, 2011 Roman Scott Managing Director, Calamander Capital Economic Spokesman British Chamber of Commerce Singapore Sponsored by 20th January 2011 Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved. Theatre, Tanglin Club
2.
1
Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
3.
The Canary in
the Coal Mine Advanced Economies GDP Growth Singapore GDP Growth (% change y-o-y) (% change y-o-y) 5 16 4 14 12 3 2.4% 10 2 8 1 6 0 4 4.0% -1 2 -2 0 -3 -2 -4 -4 2010F 2011F 1991 1998 1990 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2 Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
4.
The Canary in
the Coal Mine % (y-o-y) Investment Spend % (y-o-y) Industrial Production 20 80 16 60 12 8 40 4 20 0 0 -4 -20 -8 -40 -12 Jan-09 Mar-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 Sep-10 May-09 May-10 Nov-10 Nov-08 Nov-09 Jul-09 Jul-10 2007 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010 % (y-o-y) Exports % (y-o-y) Financial Services 24 18 22 12 18 14 6 10 0 6 2 -6 -2 -6 -12 -10 2006 2009 2002 2003 2004 2005 2007 2008 2010 1Q-09 4Q-09 1Q-08 2Q-08 3Q-08 4Q-08 2Q-09 3Q-09 3 Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
5.
Global Economy
World GDP FY 2011 Forecast Annual change (%) 4.22% (IMF) 6 3.3% (World Bank & HSBC) 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 1990 1991 2001 2002 2003 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F Source: IMF 4 Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
6.
OECD Leading Economic
Indicators Global leading indicators 12-month rate of change of the trend restored Composite Leading Indicators 30 25 20 15 11.5% 10 5 2.7% 0 1.3% -0.6% -5 -3.6% -10 -15 Nov-06 Nov-00 Nov-01 Nov-02 Nov-03 Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 UK US China Euro area OECD Total 5 Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
7.
6 6
Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
8.
US KPIs
+0.6% (m-o-m) +2.6% +0.5% -3.3% (q-o-q) (m-o-m) Dec’10 -0.4% (m-o-m) to for Q3’10 +3.9% Dec10 led to +6.9% (m-o-m) Dec’10 (q-o-q) (y-o-y), largest (Conference to 9.4% Q3’10 Board Index) since 1999 (Dec’10) 0.25% Consumer Price GDP Fed Fund Rate Index Consumer Consumer Unemployment Retail Sales Expenditure Confidence Rate +0.7% +3.2% to (m-o-m) +26% to +0.7% to 57pts USD 127.2 Bn Nov’10 for USD 1.64 Tn (m-o-m) in +4.9% +0.2% +1.5% or -3.4% manufacturing (y-o-y) Dec’10 (m-o-m) (m-o-m) (m-o-m) in of GDP 2010 orders in Q3’10 (ISM PMI) Oct’10 Nov’10 Dec10 Q3’10 Business Corporate Business Leading Current Account Manufacturing Inventories Spending Earnings Confidence Economic Index Deficit 7 Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
9.
Retail Sales
+15% +5.4% +3.2% +11.8 % (m-o-m) (y-o-y) (y-o-y) (y-o-y) Dec’10 Dec’10 Dec’10 Dec’10 +10.4 % +8.4 % +5 % (y-o-y) (y-o-y) +1.5 % Dec’10 (m-o-m) (y-o-y) Dec’10 Dec’10 Dec’10 8 Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
10.
Tech
Profit Growth in Q4’10 +71% (y-o-y) to USD 6 Bn +48% (y-o-y) to USD 3.4 Bn +9% (y-o-y) to USD 5.3 Bn 9 Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
11.
Manufacturing – Sales
Growth 574 planes sold after cancellation 7.5% (y-o-y) worth of USD 74 Bn in 2010 to 224,185 units in Dec’10 510 deliveries USD 39.9 Bn of total revenue 6.7% (y-o-y) to 190,976 units 530 planes sold after cancellations worth of USD 49 Bn. in Dec’10 462 deliveries 16% (y-o-y) to 100,702 units 61 orders worth of GBP 3.2 Bn in Dec’10 of its Trent 900 engines with British Airways 10 Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
12.
Exports
Export Volume Growth % change (y-o-y) 30 29 25 24 20 18 16 15 12 9 11 10 8 9 6 5 4 5 6 0 5 1 -9 -5 -3 -10 -10 -11 -15 -20 -18 2010F 2011F 2009 2007 2008 11 Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
13.
12
% of Disposable Income 80 90 100 110 130 120 Source: US BEA 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 US Household Debt 1999 2000 2001 2002 US Household Debt 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 118% Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved. 2010 % of Disposable Income 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 US Personal Savings Rate 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 6% 2010
14.
Auto Industry Signals
the ‘The New Normal’ No. of new car sales (in mil) No. of new car sales (in mil) 20 18 mil 19 16 17 12 15 13 11.6 mil 8 4 11 9 0 2010 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2000 2005 2010 1999 2001 2002 2003 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 No. of new car sales (in mil) No. of new car sales (in mil) 4 3.0 3.8 3.6 2.5 3.4 3.2 2.0 3 2.9 mil 2 mil 2.8 1.5 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2002 2009 1999 2000 2001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 13 Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
15.
Monthly Number of
Housing Units 14 (in thousands) 100 150 200 250 0 50 Nov-63 Housing Nov-64 Nov-65 Nov-66 Nov-67 Nov-68 Nov-69 Nov-70 Nov-71 Nov-72 Nov-73 Nov-74 Nov-75 Nov-76 Nov-77 Nov-78 Nov-79 Housing Sales Nov-80 Nov-81 Nov-82 Nov-83 Nov-84 Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved. Nov-85 Nov-86 Nov-87 Nov-88 Nov-89 Nov-90 Housing Starts Nov-91 Nov-92 Nov-93 Nov-94 Nov-95 Nov-96 Nov-97 Nov-98 Nov-99 Nov-00 Nov-01 Nov-02 Nov-03 Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Building Permits Nov-09 Nov-10 Avg: 119 Avg: 126 Avg: 57 41 21 40 Nov-10
16.
US politics
15 15 Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
17.
EU KPIs
1.9% (Q3’10) -0.3% (Q4’09) 3.9% (Q3’10) 1.1% (Q3’10) 0.2% (Q3’10) GDP: 1.0% 0.64% 0.64% 0.72% 0.5% I: 2.2% (Dec’10) 1.6% (Mar’10) 5.2% (Oct’10) 1.9% (Dec’10) 2.3% (Nov’10) CPI: -1.9% (Oct’10) 7.5% (Dec’10) -3.5% (Oct’10) -4.6% (Oct’10) C/A balance (% of GDP): -0.5% (Oct’10) 9.8% (Nov’10) 10.1% (Feb’10) 6.7% (Oct’10) 8.6% (Oct’10) 20.6% (Nov’10) Unemployment: +3.3% to +0.3% -0.5% +6.9% +1.4% +0.1% -15% to -0.8 % 10.1% 57.1pts (q-o-q) (m-o-m) (y-o-y) (m-o-m) (q-o-q) -11 pts (m-o-m) (m-o-m) (m-o-m) Q3’10 Nov’10 Oct’10 Nov’10 Q3’10 Dec’10 Nov’10 Oct’10 Dec’10 Un- Investment Corporate Industrial Manufacturi Business Consumer Consumer Retail Sales employment Spending Earnings Production ng Confidence Expenditure Confidence Rate 16 Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
18.
PIGS
10-year Government Bonds Spread Over Bunds Basis points 1040 940 840 831 740 640 582 540 440 384 340 240 228 140 40 May-09 May-10 Nov-09 Nov-10 Jul-09 Jul-10 Sep-09 Sep-10 Jan-09 Mar-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 Jan-11 17 Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
19.
UK KPIs
+3.7% (y-o-y) 0.7% (Q4’10) or 1.0% (m-o-m) lower than Dec’10 +18% +0.1% -0.4% +0.7% 0.8% (Q3’10) to 53 pts (q-o-q) (q-o-q) (m-o-m) to 7.9% (m-o-m) Q4’10 Dec’10 Dec’10 Dec’10 0.5% Consumer Price Key Policy GDP Index Interest Rate Consumer Consumer Unemployment Retail Sales Expenditure Confidence Rate +85% to GBP 9.6 Bn +11.9% +11.6% +1.4% to -15.7% +19.7% -2.6% of (q-o-q) 58.3pts (q-o-q) + GBP 0.3 Bn (m-o-m) in GDP 2010 (y-o-y) Q2’10 (m-o-m) 3Q’10 Q4’10 Dec10 (Q3’10) Q3’10 Dec’10 Business Corporate Business Leading Current Account Manufacturing Inventories Spending Earnings Confidence Economic Index Deficit 18 Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
20.
UK Austerity
UK Total GDP 2010 Government Real Spending Annual Growth Health % change (y-o-y) 8% 9 8.7 Pensions 8.2 8% 7.8 8 8.2 8 7 6.8 Welfare 6.3 7% 6 6.4 5.9 Education 5 Private Spending 6% 4 55% 3.4 Remainder 3 3.1 3.1 3 16% 2 1.6 1 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F TOTAL UK GDP 2010 USD 2,352 Bn 19 Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
21.
Emerging Markets Asia
China/India AGEs Canarys Asean-3 References Population 10% 6% 1.7% 7% 6.1% GDP GDP 2010 62 Mil 2010 235 Mil 1,341 Bn GDP GDP GDP 6.8% 2010 49 Mil 2010 7 Mil 2010 14.8% GDP 88 Mil 2010 9.6% 8% 9.5% 7% GDP GDP GDP 1,216 Bn GDP GDP 20 Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved. 68 Mil 2010 20 Mil 2010 2010 23 Mil 2010 5 Mil 2010
22.
My worry -
Asian inflation…the watchlist % change (y-o-y) % change (y-o-y) % change (y-o-y) 6 5.9 12 11 10.2 6.5% 5 2.75% 11 10.9 11.8 10 4 4.8 (lending 5.81%) 9 3.3 10 8 3 9 6.4 7 6.4 2 8 8.3 6 1 -0.7 7 5% 5 4.8 0 5.1 6 4 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2010F 2007 2008 2009 -1 2007 2008 2009 2010F % change (y-o-y) % change (y-o-y) % change (y-o-y) 26 6 5.5 23 7 6.6 22 5 2.25% 6 18 4 5 0.44% 14 8.3 9% 3 2.2 3.3 4 2.1 2.8 3 9.9 2 2 0.6 10 1 7.1 1 -0.8 6 9 0 0 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2010F 2011F 2007 2008 2009 -1 2007 2008 2009 2010F Inflation 21 Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved. Policy rate
23.
22
20 40 50 60 70 80 30 90 100 110 120 130 140 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 USD per barrel Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 Inflation part 2……Oil May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Oil Price Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved. Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 20 Jan 2011 Oil Price: Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 100 USD/Barrel Nov-10 Dec-10 USD 72 Bn USD 70 Bn USD 27 Bn USD 790 Bn 34 Other Rich Countries Increase in Imported Bill in 2010
24.
Bonds: Hasta La
Vista, Baby! Government Securities’ Yield Curves Yield (%) Yield (%) Yield (%) 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 5y 3m 6m 2y 3y 7y 12m 10y 30y 3y 3m 6m 2y 5y 7y 12m 10y 30y 12m 10y 30y 3y 3m 6m 2y 5y 7y Dec'09 Maturity Maturity Jan'11 Maturity Period Period Period 23 Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
25.
Equities: performance for
2010 World (MSCI) (DJIA) (FTSE Euro (CAC 40) (SMI) (BOVESPA) (BSE) (KOSPI) (SET) (JSX) (CSEALL) 100) World Bond (Citigroup) (SPTSX) (FTSE (DAX) (NIKKEI (RTS) (SSEA) (STI) (KLSE) (TAIEX) (All Ord.) 100) 225) YTD (%) From 31 Dec 2009 to 12-Jan-11 60 52 50 46 40 38 29 30 30 22 22 20 20 15 11 13 11 9 8 9 10 10 8 6 3 0 U .S. UK China (SSEA) Rus s ia Sri Lanka France Japan Braz il Euro Taiwan W orld Bond G ermany Swis s Korea (Kos pi) Malays ia (FTSE) W orld (MSCI) Thailand India Indones ia Canada Singapore Aus tralia -10 -9 -12 -11 -20 Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved. 24
26.
USD
USD Against Major Currencies Weighted Average of the Foreign Exchange Values of the (Mar 1973 = 100) Calamander’s 1st warning 150 of USD decrease at BritCham Sep’02 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 Jan-76 Jan-86 Jan-93 Jan-00 Jan-10 Jan-73 Jan-74 Jan-75 Jan-77 Jan-78 Jan-79 Jan-80 Jan-81 Jan-82 Jan-83 Jan-84 Jan-85 Jan-87 Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-11 Note: Nominal Major Currencies Index of USD against a basket of EUR, CAD, JPY, GBP, CHF, AUD, and SKR. 25 Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
27.
Commodities 2010 Index
+74% (Dec09 = 100) 220 Palladium 200 +80% Iron Ore 180 +69% +66% 160 Rubber Silver +38% +36% 140 Coal Uranium 120 +24% Copper 100 +18% 80 Platinum Jan-10 May-10 Dec-09 Feb-10 Dec-10 Aug-10 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Oct-10 26 Copyright © 2011. Calamander Capital Singapore Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.
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