MSP Challenge 2050
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Presentation Geobusiness May 6 2014, Noordwijk
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MSP Challenge 2050
- 1. Noordzee 2050 gebiedsagenda gaming the future of the North Sea Lodewijk Abspoel (IenM) 6 mei 2014 – GEO space
- 2. Ruimtelijk economische agenda Noordzee 2050 – aan adaptieve benadering 2 Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment “Werken vanuit de potentie van de zee zelf – conform advies RLI ‘Een zee van mogelijkheden’ .” M. Schultz van Haegen 24.04.2013© RWS - 2012
- 3. Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment Beleidsmatige benadering Maritieme Ruimtelijke ontwikkeling denk groot denk lange termijn denk systemen denk in mensen scheidt feit en fictie denk land-zee interacties denk ruimtelijk 3
- 4. Q2 - MSP – challenge # 1 for the process: establish co-operation and create a common language 4 Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment © www.dekrachtvanbeeld.nl - 2013
- 5. Proces gebiedsagenda Noordzee 2050 • Visie 2050 • EU “blue growth agenda” • Potentie van de zee centraal • Ambitie • Opgaven • Maatregelen • Co productie IenM – EZ • Verhalend onderzoek • Ontwerpend onderzoek • foto 2014 – 2023/2027 – outlook 2050 • Identificeren “strategische kloof” voor beleid • Beleidskeuzes ruimtelijke ontwikkeling: NWPII 2015-2021 5 Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment
- 6. Thema’s gebiedsagenda Noordzee 2050 • Energievoorziening • Voedsel • Beleving (toerisme, recreatie, cultuur) • Natuur • Transport/bereikbaarheid • Verbinding gebiedsagenda’s land met zee • “Topsector Noordzee” • Verbinden lange termijn met hier en nu • Agenda internationaal 6 Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment
- 7. Creatief multi-disciplinair interactief proces 7 Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment Scheepvaart http://vimeo.com/77293754 Wierenkweek http://vimeo.com/77296842 Het verhaal in woord en kaartbeeld
- 8. 8 Potentiekaart windenergie op zee Windspeed scenario’s 93 GW (in the deep) and 135 GW (grand design) by 2030 OSW – spatial priorityOSW – “cross border plan” Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment
- 9. 9 Combined spatial map southern North Sea (2010) Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment
- 10. Verdringingseffecten en kruisend verkeer 10 23 May 2014Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment
- 11. 11 Q3. bringing together the necessary data and combining information, facts, figures, opinions and establish of maps to grasp the bigger picture… Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment Note: for illustration purposes only - not for navigation, not for policy making, not for maritime spatial planning, not for marine planning
- 12. Geïdentificeerde beleidsopgaven voor de agenda 12 23 May 2014Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment • Energietransitie – inclusief getijde- en golfenergie, diepe geothermie, hergebruik bestaande leidingen, power2gas, Noordzee grid i.r.t. opgave wind op zee (4.450 MW in 2023); • Building with Nature – naast beschermen en ombuigen impact van gebruikers; de veerkracht van het systeem vergroten – mede t.b.v. voedselvoorziening; • Multifunctioneel gebruik van de ruimte op zee – prikkels inbouwen en gebieden “bestempelen” (MKBA); • De zee als exportproduct – technologie, kennis en beleid incl cross-overs topsectoren (vb energie uit water) • Verbinding met land – toerisme, recreatie, natuur, cultuur en bestuur.
- 13. De missing links 2050 – Maritiem • Scheepvaart: de route rond de noord, havens van de toekomst (MVIII), short sea, geulen, • verkeersknooppunten op zee i.r.t. o.a. energiegebieden • Enhanced-navigation • Radardekking en SAR • Recreatievaart (AIS/chip) • Kabels/leidingen en opruimplicht • Internationale samenwerking – (beleids)export? • VTS buiten 12 mijlszone / sturen vanaf de wal – vrijheid van navigatie • Geomorfologie: LAN – diepten, stroming, sediment • Werkeilanden op zee • Brandstof van de toekomst (LNG?) 13 23 May 2014Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment
- 14. De missing links 2050 – Energie • Gecombineerde milieueffecten 90 GW windenergie op totale Noordzee? • Nieuwe generatie windturbines op zee na 2040? • Energie uit water m.b.v. getijdenturbines en golfslagenergie bij lage stroomsnelheden (<2m/s) en golven? • Energiegebieden met een combi van productiemethoden; • Power-2-gas; • Tempo, locaties en wel/geen bovenwaterplatforms voor olie en gas; • Enhanced oil recovery technieken en CCS; • Ontwikkeling smart grid; • Diepe geothermie (op zee). 14 23 May 2014Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment
- 15. Maritime Spatial Planning – policy tool Politics Legal Content Finance Communication Innovation Think others Think eco- systems Think long term Think big 15 Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment Licence to operate & to grow Think spatial Create common language
- 16. Q3. bringing together the necessary data and combining information, facts, figures, opinions 16 • Collect existing data and information within government agencies (on shipping, energy, fishing, environment, cultural heritage etc etc) • Combine GIS data • Verify (internationally) with stakeholders to enhance understanding and create common language and insight • In case of new acitivities/change of location of activities: make Strategic Environment Assessment • Public and cross border consultation
- 17. Dank voor het luisteren Tijd voor discussie en vragen Lodewijk.abspoel@minienm.nl 17 Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment Poster Birds of the North Sea – co production with Vogelbescherming
- 18. 18Challenge the future Marine Spatial Planning Challenge 2050 © Dr. Igor Mayer i.s.mayer@tudelftnl Faculty Technology, Policy and Management (TPM) & Signature Games Delft University of technology, The Netherlands
- 19. 19Challenge the future References • Mayer, I. S., Zhou, Q., Lo, J., Abspoel, L., Keijser, X., Olsen, E., … Kannen, A. (2012). Integrated , Ecosystem-based Marine Spatial Planning: First Results from International Simulation-Game Experiment. In Third International Engineering Systems Symposium CESUN 2012, Delft University of Technology, 18-20 June 2012 (pp. 18–20). Delft, The Netherlands: IEEE. • Mayer, I. S., Zhou, Q., Lo, J., Abspoel, L., Keijser, X., Olsen, E., … Kannen, A. (2013). Integrated, Ecosystem-based Marine Spatial Planning: Design and Results of a Game-based Quasi-Experiment. Ocean and Coastal Management, 82, 7–26. doi:dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2013.04.006 • Zhou, Q. (2014). The Princess in the Castle Challenging Serious Game Play for Integrated Policy Analysis and Planning. PhD thesis. TU Delft.
- 20. 20Challenge the future The 2011 edition Features • Played in Lisbon 2011, Leeuwarden, 2012 & Reykjavik 2013 • Four countries around Sea of Colours • Based upon Kattegat but changed • 60-80 players • Minimum of 8 hours play • Planner roles with eight stakeholder groups • Simplified data • Digital drawing tool • 60 layers of map information • Use: learning, training, collaboration • Limitations: • great event effort; large facilitation effort • no simulation; • not networked; • no underlying performance model; • case not changeable.
- 21. 21Challenge the future The 2050 ‘North Sea’ edition Features • Launched in Delft, February 2014 • Flexible number of countries: 4 - 8 • Based on accurate data of North Sea • 18-40 players • Four to forty (interrupted) hours of play • All players in a country are planners • Realistic data and maps • Simulation, foodweb calculations • 2D to 3D zooming • Networked • Performance indicators, dashboard, analytics • Flexible number of layers of map information • Wider use: citizen and stakeholder participation, learning, training, policy exploration, design and scenario development, etc. • Future: interconnection with GIS; customization, train the trainer; dissemination (website, licensing, trailer).
- 22. 22Challenge the future Objective of the Game The objective of the simulation-game is to significantly contribute to policy learning and international planning practices with regard to integrated (eco- based) Marine Spatial Planning. The game makes players try, experience failure and success, and reflect upon: • How socio-technical complexity affects MSP • The long term consequences of short term decisions • The interdependencies of sectorial policies • The regulatory principles and institutional frameworks of MSP • The (in) effective planning practices of MSP • Cross national consultation and coordination • The use of science, knowledge, data, methods in MSP
- 23. 23Challenge the future Marine areas as socio-technical systems Stressors (indicators) Pressures ©QiqiZhou,2014 Marine Geo & Eco-system Human activities in Marine areas
- 24. 24Challenge the future Marine areas as complex socio-technical system: feedback, delays, interaction effects Cumulative interactions of human activities Stressors (indicators) Pressures Delay Delay Delay ©QiqiZhou,2014 Marine Geo & Eco-system Human activities in Marine areas Complex interactions (food chain etc.)
- 25. 25Challenge the future Socio-technical complexity causes institutional fragmentation: sectors, disciplines, departments, countries Geo-system Eco-system Human activities Activity 1 Activity 2 Activity 4Activity 3 Dimension Two Dimension One Dimension Four Dimension Three Cumulative interactions of human activities Stressors Pressures Indirect correlation Delay Delay Delay ©QiqiZhou,2014 Dimension Five Activity
- 26. 26Challenge the future Tensions at the science-policy interface Country A Country B Country D Stakehold er 1 Science 1 Science 2 Model 2 Research 1 ©QiqiZhou,2014 Model 1 Stakehol der... Ecosystem-based, integrated models Stakeholder participation The Science-Policy Interface
- 27. 27Challenge the future MSP as a complex, socio-technical planning problem Integrated, Ecosystem-based MSP Stakeholder participation Ecosystem-based, integrated models Fragmentation of stakeholders, values, interest in different countries Fragmentation in disciplines, models, theories Cumulative interactions of human activities Geo-system Eco-system ©QiqiZhou,2014 Pressures
- 28. 28Challenge the future What the game delivers… A game is not a machine that can foretell the truth or deliver instant solutions. Nevertheless, the game can deliver… • Sketches, maps of certain marine planning areas for policy exploration • Performance indicators of alternatives for scenario assessment • Guidelines, procedures and principles for international consultation • Data for further analysis, items for a research or policy agenda
- 29. 29Challenge the future Objective in the game “Make a (draft) integrated Marine/Maritime Spatial Plan (MSP): define its planning horizon, indicate the various spatial functions and present a limited set of (inter)national policy guidelines that will enforce the MSP.” The policy report (two pages) also includes a brief description of the process which was followed and policy instruments which have been used.” The approved MSP of each country and the process that led to it, will be presented at the annual Regional Coloured Sea Convention (RCSC) on [end game]
Editor's Notes
- 4 questions which I will answer by addressing the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats and therefore challenges for renewable energy from the North sea: the cross-border dimension of offshore energy development benefits and challenges of cross-border planning examples of cooperation between Member States support by maritime planning to the development of energy grids.