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AAPOR Presentation 2012
1. MORMON PRESIDENTS AND MOSQUES NEXT
DOOR
An Examination of American Attitudes Toward
Religious Minorities in 2012
Daniel Cox,
Public
Director of Research at the Public Religion Research
Religion Institute
Research
Institute
2. Data Sources
• Public Religion Research Institute, PRRI/RNS Religious News Survey,
May 2012
• Public Religion Research Institute, American Values Survey,
September 2011
• PRRI Religion and Politics Tracking Survey, December 2011
• PRRI Religion and Politics Tracking Survey, October 2011
• Public Religion Research Institute, Pluralism, Immigration, Civic
Integration Survey, August 2011
• Public Religion Research Institute, PRRI/RNS Religious News Survey,
July 2011
• Pew Research Center, Political and Media Survey, July 2011
• Pew Research Center, Religion & Public Life Survey, August 2009
Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 2
3. MORMONS AND MUSLIMS IN CONTEXT
Favorability of Religious Groups in the U.S.
Knowledge about Beliefs of Mormonism and Islam
Perceptions of Similarity or Difference with Mormons and
Muslims
Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 3
4. Knowledge of the Religious Beliefs and
Practices of Mormons and Muslims
How Much Do You Know About...
A lot A little Nothing at all
60 57
55
50
40
29
30 27
20 17
14
10
0
The religious beliefs and practices of Muslims The religious beliefs and practices of Mormons
Source: Public Religion Research Institute, Pluralism, Immigration, Civic Integration Survey, August 2011 (N=2,450)
Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 4
5. Interaction with Muslims and Mormons
Frequency of Conversations with Muslims and Mormons
Once a day Occasionally Seldom Never
50
45 43
40 41 40 39
40 36
35
30 28 27
24 23
25
20
15 13
11 11
10 6 6 6
5
0
Muslim Mormon African American Hispanic
Source: Public Religion Research Institute, Pluralism, Immigration, Civic Integration Survey, August 2011 (N=2,450)
Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 5
6. Similarity/Difference of Religious Beliefs
Do You Think the Muslim Religion and Do You Think the Mormon
Your Own Religious Beliefs Are Similar Religion and Your Own Religious
or Different? Beliefs Are Similar or Different?
3 Very similar 3
17 14 19
18
Somewhat similar
Somewhat different
19
Very different 24
47 36
Don't know/Refused
Source: Pew Research Center, 2009 Religion & Public Life Survey, August 2009 (N=4,013)
Excludes the Unaffiliated and Muslims/Mormons
Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 6
7. Feelings Toward Religious Groups in the
U.S.
Favorability of Religious Groups Among All Americans
Favorable opinion Unfavorable opinion Can't rate/Refused
90 84
83
80
70 67
60 58
50 45 46
40
32
30
20
20
12 10
9 9 7 7 8
10
0
Atheists Muslims Mormons Catholics Jews
Source: Public Religion Research Institute, Pluralism, Immigration, Civic Integration Survey, August 2011 (N=2,450)
Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 7
8. Comfort with a Mormon & Muslim Serving
as President
How Comfortable Would You Be with a Muslim or a
Mormon Serving as President of the U.S.?
Comfortable Uncomfortable
70
63
60
52
50
44
40
33
30
20
10
0
A Mormon serving as President A Muslim serving as President
Source: Public Religion Research Institute, American Values Survey, September 2011 (N=1,505)
Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 8
9. MITT ROMNEY AND THE MORMON QUESTION
Comfort with a Mormon President
Knowledge about Romney’s Faith
Views Among Evangelicals
Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 9
10. Comfort with a Mormon President by
Religious Tradition
How Comfortable Would You Be with a Mormon Serving as
President of the U.S.?
70 Comfortable Uncomfortable
64
61
60
52
50 49 50
50 46 47 47
44
40 35
29
30
20
10
0
All Americans White Mainline Catholics Unaffiliated White Black Protestants
Protestants Evangelicals
Source: Public Religion Research Institute, American Values Survey, September 2011 (N=1,505)
Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 10
11. Knowledge of Romney’s Religion
Knowledge of Mitt Romney's Religious Beliefs
% of voters that know Romney is a Mormon
70 65
60
51 52
50
43
40
30
20
10
0
All Voters Republican Voters Independent Voters Democratic Voters
Source: Public Religion Research Institute, PRRI/RNS Religious News Survey, May 2012 (N=1,006)
Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 11
12. The GOP Base and Views of Mormons
Views about Mormonism and the Religious
Beliefs of Mormons
Percentage of voters who say Mormonism is not a Christian religion
All Voters 36%
White Evangelical 49%
Republican 39%
Tea Party 31%
Percentage of voters who say Mormons have different religious beliefs than
their own
All Voters 66%
White Evangelical 68%
Republican 61%
Tea Party 50%
Source: Public Religion Research Institute, American Values Survey, September 2011 (N=1,505)
Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 12
13. Knowledge of Romney’s Faith and
Favorability Increasing Concurrently
Increased Knowledge of Romney's Faith and Favorability
Among White Evangelical Voters
Favorable view of Romney Know Romney is Mormon
80
70 67
60 55
63
50 44*
52
40
40
30
20
10
0
Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12
Source: Public Religion Research Institute, PRRI/RNS Religious News Survey, July 2012 (N=1,012); PRRI Religion and Politics Tracking Survey, October 2011
(N=1,019); PRRI Religion and Politics Tracking Survey, December 2011 (N=1,012); PRRI/RNS Religious News Survey, May 2012 (N=1,006)
Note: July 2011 number is among white evangelical Protestants overall and not white evangelical Protestant voters
Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 13
14. The White Evangelical Vote
If the 2012 Presidential Election Were Held Today, Who
Would You Vote For?
Mitt Romney Barack Obama
80
70 68 67
60
50
40
30
22
19
20
10
0
All White Evangelical Voters White Evangelical voters who say Romney's
religious beliefs are different from their own
Source: Public Religion Research Institute, PRRI/RNS Religious News Survey, May 2012 (N=1,006)
Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 14
15. Measuring Hidden Concern about a
Mormon President
Survey Experiment: How Many Statements Worry or Bother You?
Control Treatment
A A family member marrying a born-again Christian A
B An atheist teaching elementary school in your community B
C A Mosque being built near your home C
A Mormon becoming president of the United States D
0.98 Mean number of statements selected 1.40
(Out of 3) (Out of 4)
Source: Public Religion Research Institute, American Values Survey, September 2011 (N=1,505)
Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 15
16. Measuring Hidden Concern about a
Mormon President
Expression of Hidden Concern about a Mormon Becoming President among Voters
Direct Measure of Indirect Measure of Hidden
Concern Concern Concern
% % % Pts.
All Voters 42 42 0
White Evangelical 47 49 2
White Mainline 30 57 27
Unaffiliated 48 43 -5
Catholic 42 41 -1
Democrat 50 54 4
Independent 38 37 -1
Republican 36 30 -6
Conservative 39 42 3
Moderate 43 38 -5
Liberal 46 41 -5
Source: Public Religion Research Institute, American Values Survey, September 2011 (N=1,505)
Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 16
17. MUSLIMS IN AMERICAN SOCIETY
Challenges to Assimilation and Civic Integration
Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 17
18. Challenges to Muslim Assimilation and
Acceptance in the U.S.
• 1) Value Incompatibility
• 2) Cultural Encroachment
• 3) American Foreign Policy; Geopolitics
• 4) Islamic Extremism and Terrorism
Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 18
19. 1) Islam at odds with American Values
Islam at Odds with American Values and Way of Life
Agree Disagree
60
54
52
50 47 48
43
40
40
30
20
10
0
General Public Millennials Seniors
Source: Public Religion Research Institute, Pluralism, Immigration, Civic Integration Survey, August 2011
(N=2,450)
Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 19
20. 2) Comfort with Muslims in Society
Feeling of Comfort with Muslims in Society
Comfortable Uncomfortable
60 57
53
51 51
50 48
46 45
41
40
30
20
10
0
Muslim women wearing Mosque being built near Group of Muslim men Muslim teaching
the Burqua your home praying at an airport elementary school
Source: Public Religion Research Institute, Pluralism, Immigration, Civic Integration Survey, August 2011 (N=2,450)
Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 20
21. 2) Perceptions that American Muslims
want to Establish Shari’a Law
American Muslims ultimately want to establish Shari'a law as the
law of the land in the U.S.
Disagree Agree Don't Know
9
30
61
What It Means to Be American: Attitudes in an Increasingly Diverse America Ten Years After 9/11 21
22. 3. Perceptions of Muslims’ Views of the
U.S.
• In general do you think that people in Muslim countries have a very
favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very
unfavorable opinion of the United States?
• 16% Favorable
• 79% Unfavorable
• 5% Don’t know (Vol.)
• Do you think the unfavorable opinions that people in Muslim
countries have about the U.S. are generally justified or not justified?
• 24% Justified
• 73% Not justified
• 4% Don’t know (Vol.)
Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 22
23. 4) Support for Extremism Among U.S.
Muslims
Support for Extremism Among Muslim Americans
Great deal Fair amount Not too much None at all
40
33
30
25
20
15
12
10
0
All Americans
Source: Pew Research Center, Political and Media Survey, July 2011 (N=1,501)
Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 23
24. 4) Committing Acts of Violence: Christians
vs. Muslims
The Double Standard Evaluating Violence Committed
by Self-Identified Christians and Muslims
Yes No Don’t know/Refused
90 83
80
70
60
50 48
44
40
30
20 13
9
10 4
0
Believe perpetrator really is Christian Believe perpetrator really is Muslim
Source: Public Religion Research Institute, Pluralism, Immigration, Civic Integration Survey, August 2011 (N=2,450)
Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 24
25. Conclusions?
• The Mormon Question
– There is evidence that Romney’s faith influenced voters,
particularly evangelical voters in the primary election who
strongly supported Santorum, but this also had a lot to do with
other cultural factors as well (Massachusetts, Wealthy
background etc.)
– In the general election evangelicals will come home.
» White mainline Protestants?
• Muslims in American Society
– Future trends?
– Generation differences
– New Data
Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 25
26. MORMON PRESIDENTS AND MOSQUES NEXT
DOOR
An Examination of American Attitudes Toward
Religious Minorities in 2012
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Daniel Cox,
Public
Director of Research at the Public Religion Research
Religion Institute
Research
Institute
Hinweis der Redaktion
How much do Americans know about Mormonism and Islam? Not too much.Less than 1-in-5 say they know a lot about the religious beliefs and practices of Muslims and Mormons. A majority says they know a little and roughly 3-in-10 say they know nothing at all.What’s interesting hear is that despite the similar levels of knowledge about these two religious groups Mormons are viewed more favorably than American Muslims.
Looking at the degree to which people perceive Mormonism and Islam are similar to their own religious belief systems we find that most Americans believe these two religions are quite different from their own.Only roughly 1-in-5 Americans says either the Muslims religion or the Mormon religion have religious beliefs similar to their own. And again, the patterns do not differ too significantly between views about Mormonism and Islam here.
Among all major religious groups in the U.S. atheists are generally viewed most unfavorably by the general public. Roughly equal numbers have a favorable and unfavorable view of atheists. In comparison a majority of Americans report that they have a favorable view of American Muslims; two-thirds report having a favorable view of Mormons and more than 8-in-10 Americans are favorably disposed towards Catholics and JewsI should note that American Muslims are viewed about 10-15 points more favorably than Muslims. Americans make a significant distinction between Muslims in this country and Muslims elsewhere in the world. There is also evidence that, without prompting most Americans think of Muslims outside the U.S. or non-American Muslims when asked questions about Muslims or Islam.
First, a slim majority of Americans say they would be comfortable with a Mormon president, while 44% say that this would make them uncomfortable.In contrast, more than 6-in-10 Americans say that they would be uncomfortable with a Muslims presidentThese responses are consistent with what we find in general affect towards these groups, Mormons are generally viewed more positively than Muslims.
The question that’s been entertaining pundits and politicos for the past year is how will Mitt Romney’s religion affect his chances in the Republican primary and then again in the general election. Many folks including myself have suggested that Romney’s faith would be more of an issue in the primary when white evangelical Protestants have an outsized impact in selecting the nominee.Recent data suggests that it may not be much of a factor in the general election.
The pattern of responses across religious groups is instructive. Catholics, the religious unaffiliated and white evangelicals are all divided on how comfortable they would feel with a Mormon President. However, the reasons for the discomfort likely differs between these groupsAt opposite extremes are white mainline Protestants and black Protestants: two-thirds of white mainline Protestants say they would be comfortable with a Mormon president and more than 6-in-10 black Protestants say they would be uncomfortable.I want you to remember the white mainline protestant number because I’m going to come back to this.
One important question to answer if we are considering what effect Romney’s faith may have on his electoral prospects is how many voters are actually aware of what it is.Earlier this month we found that only a slim majority of voters could correctly identify Romney’s religion as Mormon.Among Republican voters two-thirds were aware, while among Democratic voters less than half (43%) know Romney is MormonRemember this is from a poll conducted just a few weeks ago.
Knowledge of Romney’s faith has been increasing since last summer, albeit fairly modestly. However, among white evangelical voters and Republican voters, not surprisingly knowledge has increased more substantially.Currently, close to two-thirds of evangelical voters know that Romney is Mormon, an 8-point increase from last fall. Over the same period Romney’s favorability among white evangelical voters increased dramatically, from 40 percent to 67 percent.So, what we’re seeing is knowledge of Romney’s faith increase among the group that conventional wisdom says is most concerned by it while at the same time his favorable ratings spike.The spike in favorable ratings is most likely due to his winning the Republican nomination, but it’s interesting that increased knowledge does not seem to exert any kind of drag effect. [McCain in 2008?]
- Looking at the evangelical vote we find that Romney is doing quite well among evangelical voters. More than two-thirds of white evangelical voters say if the election were held today they would vote for Romney while just 19% would support Obama.- And among white evangelical voters who say that Romney’s religious beliefs are different from their own, the voting preferences of evangelical are nearly identical.
We have uncovered evidence that a significant minority of Americans would be uncomfortable with a Mormon President, but among evangelical voters the issue does not appear to threaten his support among this important constituency.What about in the general election? Are there concerns that voters have, that perhaps they do not want to share publicly?To answer this question we imbedded an randomized experiment in one of our surveys. This list experiment randomly assigns respondents to one of two groups. The control group is read a list of three statements and instructed to tell the interviewed how many of the statements bother them. They are told explicitly not to identify the offending statements, just the number. The treatment group is read the same list of three statements plus one additional statement: “A Mormon becoming president of the United States”By subtracting the mean number of statements selected we can determine just how many people are concerned about a Mormon becoming president. For instance, the average number of statements selected in group two (the treatment group) was 1.4 while the average number of statements in the control group was 0.98. Because the only difference between the two groups is that the treatment group was read one additional statement we know that the 42% of Americans are concerned about a Mormon president; 1.4-0.98.
If you remember we asked Americans directly to share whether they had any concerns about a Mormon president. This allowed us to compare whether there is any difference between what people tell us directly and what they tell us when they think their responses are not public. And what we see is that it really doesn’t make any difference for the most part.Among voters there is no difference in the concern that is exhibited directly through answering the question and indirectly through the experiment.None of the differences are in fact, significant, with one exception: white mainline Protestant voters.Only 30 percent of white mainline Protestant voters reported being concerned about the possibility of a Mormon President when asked directly, however, nearly twice that number reported concern about a Mormon President when they believed that their concerns were actually hidden.
- Americans are divided in their views about Muslims in American society, whether it’s views about religious expression or the compatibility of Islam and American values. However, what this divided opinion belies is a dramatic polarization in attitudes by religion, political party and generation.- Switching gears, we’re going to look at attitudes about Muslims and comfort with Muslims people, and religious practices in society.
- In general Americans tend to be divided in their comfort levels over various aspects of Muslim culture and religious expression in society.
