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What We Do

Where We Are

Our Options

Game Plan

Real Option




               Steenland Chocolate
                       Nat Chaturaphat
                         Puneet Grover
                      Markiyan Kychma
                           Luis Portela
                             Krista Yang
What We Do

Where We Are    Steenland and Gina
Our Options
               Synergy
Game Plan
               - Steenland’s market leader position
Real Option    - Gina’s customised products, large coins
               Efficiency
               - Cost efficiency: remove unprofitable products
               - Channel network
               Revenue of €10m in 2006, promising 30% growth in sales
               volume
               Capacity: Steenland: 100% utilisation, Gina: 25% utilisation


                                                    Leveraging Core Competencies

               Strong points:
                   - Superior quality
                   - Recognised B2B brand and reliable partners
                   - Alliances and key accounts
               How it can be used:
                   - Acquire new customers
                   - Focus on premium niche
               Boost sales:
                   -Through more aggressive marketing
                   - Product innovation
What We Do

Where We Are   Turnaround Results
Our Options

Game Plan
               Judging the turnaround result by benchmarking with
Real Option    industry peers

               Financial ratios
               RoA,RoIC, RoS, RoE are still relatively low
               Asset utilisation is good and improving
               Leverage and liquidity ratios within industry norm



                              Ratio             Hershey      Lindt & Sprüngli   Steenland
                 Return On Assets                 15%              11%             2%
                 Return On Invested Capital       23%              17%             10%
                 Return On Sales                  10%               8%             1%
                 Return On Equity                 45%              21%             4%
                 Cost of Goods Sold To Sales      56%              52%             57%
                 Net Margin                       10%               8%             2%
                 Inventories Days Held             77               91              46
                 Accounts Receivable Days          36              108              88
                 Accounts Payable Days             13               30              35
                 Current Ratio                    0.93             2.01            1.88
                 Total Debt / Common Equity      172%              19%             59%
What We Do

Where We Are   Product Portfolio
Our Options

Game Plan
               Steenland                                    Gina
Real Option    Coins                                        Personalized coins
               82% of volume, market share 20%, core        leader in this segment, Steenland &
               product, higher margins for customized       Gina together have 80% share, almost
               and incensed products                        a monopoly.
               Bars                                         Medallions
               2% of volume, thin margin for all            makes large coins which Steenland
               companies, but they make a bit more profit   cannot make
               as they are catering to a particular niche
               Cigarettes: 8% of volume, one of 3
               suppliers, but dying market
What We Do

Where We Are   Industry Analysis: Markets
Our Options

Game Plan
               Chocolate promotional gift market lies
Real Option    between the promotional and chocolate
               markets


                                                        Generic Chocolate Industry
               Promotional Gifts Market                 Regional variation of market:
               Total market: $18 Billion
                                                        Saturated: UK, Belgium
               Demand according to consumer trend,
                                                        Reaching maturity: US, France, Italy
               Strong need to be aware of upcoming
               trends.                                  Growth region: China, India, E. EU
               Food gifts constitute 3.8% of the
               promotional gifts
                                                        Popular distribution channel:
               Highly fragmented market and most of
                                                        Western Europe: Supermarkets and
               the production takes place in Asia
                                                        large retail chains
                                                        Eastern Europe: Traditional grocers
                                                        US: Convenience stores
                                                        Largest segment: Moulded bars and
                                                        boxed chocolates
What We Do

Where We Are     Industry Analysis: Confectionary Market Trend
Our Options

Game Plan
                The global market for confectionery grew at a steady rate over the
Real Option     past five years, and this trend is expected to continue throughout the
                forecast period, with good performances from the Chinese, Polish and
                Indian markets driving global revenues upwards. The global market is
                expected to reach a value of $107.6 billion by the end
                of 2010
                CAGR: 1.9% (2005 – 2010)


                                                                                              Rest of the
                                                        Asia Pacific                          world 6%
                                                           17%




                                                         US
                                                                                                 Europe
                                                        26%            Source: Data monitor       51%



               Global confectionary market by Type      Confectionary Market by Geography
What We Do

Where We Are   Industry Analysis: Successful Growth
Our Options

Game Plan

Real Option    Arcor Group Argentina-based confectionary corporation
               - Vertical integration
               - International expansion by M&A of local production
               - Establish strong distribution foothold then marketing
               - Concentrate on large accounts
               - Product innovation




                                                       Chocolate House USA-based
                                                       Strong brand
                                                       Product innovation
                Madelaine USA-based                    Subsidiary synergies
                Customer service                       Move from retail focus to wholesale
                Customization                          Constant incremental improvement
                Wide product line
                HR management
                Following market trend
What We Do

Where We Are   Cost Structure and Margin
Our Options

Game Plan

Real Option


                                                                       Competitors are more
                                                                       efficient with raw
                                                                       materials and/or direct
                                                                       labour

                                                                       Reducing raw material
                                                                       cost by vertical
                                                                       integration

                                                                       Reduce direct labour
                                                                       by offshoring,
                                                                       nearshoring


               Steenland purchases liquid chocolate from third parties, such as Barry
               Callebaut, hence it pays extra 5% for raw materials compared to others, who
               own chocolate production

               Steenland’s products are relatively customised, hence more labour intensive
What We Do

Where We Are    Two approaches
Our Options
    options

Game Plan

Real Option    Given these macro, meso, and micro factors, the investors of Steenland
               can approach their investment with two views:



                           Harvesting           and         Planting
What We Do

Where We Are     What is Harvesting
Our Options
    options

Game Plan

Real Option
               Objective explore the best opportunities
                         with the available capacity,
                         optimising its utilization



               Time frame 3 years


Growth and expansion         through new clients, by exploring growing markets and new key
                             accounts


               Production                            Market gifts market, focused on
               no extra investments in capacity or   chocolate promotional gifts segment
               relocation
                                                     Product focus on promotional
               Investment                                    gifts and licensed
               gifts market specialized sales                products
               force, focused on big accounts        New product development
                                                     use core capabilities and techniques
What We Do

Where We Are     What is Planting
Our Options
    options

Game Plan

Real Option
               Objective leverage on our core
                         capabilities to explore the
                         whole of the chocolate
                         promotional gifts market

               Time frame 5 years



Growth and expansion         through new clients, new growing markets and new products
                             development

                                                       Market gifts market, focused on
               Production
               investments in relocation and extra     chocolate promotional gifts segment
               capacity in new Asian markets (low
                                                       Product broader product range of
               labour cost countries)
                                                       promotional gifts and licensed
                                                       products, responding to market
               Investment                              needs
               extended gifts market focused sales
               effort, extended production capacity    New product development
                                                               investment in extra technology
What We Do

Where We Are        Stakeholders, Time, and Real Option
Our Options
    options

Game Plan         “Harvesting” and “Planting” views can potentially
Real Option
                  create a conflict of interest between
                  stakeholders.
                  Investors only harvest and owners only plant ?
                  - Not if you put Time in between them -

                  Harvesting gives investors fast return and provide
                  company with cash to grow.
                  Planting provides the company with a growth plan
                  but also provide exiting investors with a future
                  plan they can sell. Both gain from lower risk.
                                                                              “Timing
                                                                                 and
                                                        Planting            sequencing
     Harvesting            Real Option                   Stage               is the key
       Stage               Intermediate                                          to a
                           evaluation:
                           divest or invest?                                   unified
                                               Exit                           effort to
                                                                             success”
    Year 1     Year 2                          Year 3     Year 4   Year 5
What We Do

Where We Are                       Harvesting Stage: Marketing
Our Options

Game Plan           Segmentation chocolate promotional gifts market segment

Real Option
                    Positioning high quality producer of flat shape chocolate gifts
                    Targeting large companies and promotional gifts distributors; retailers
                    for licensed products

                     Measures                                        Objectives
Segmentation
  according to       Expand sales force by hiring promotional        Increase sales by an average of 20%, with
                     gifts specialists                               a focus on the most profitable products and
decision maker                                                       geographic markets
 benefits: high      Sales effort focused on large corporate and
    quality          promotional gifts accounts and growing          Create long lasting partnerships and
   stamped           markets (Asia-Pacific and China)                costumer relations with gift products
chocolate gifts
                     Product development based on current            Faze out lower margin products and
                     technologies                                    diminish dependency on seasonal products


 Coin and bar shaped                                       New flat shaped products
 Promotional gifts for airlines, hotel chains, casinos,    Flat moulded products shaped on costumer demand
 coffee and food retail chains, financial institutions     indented for promotional purposes and events
 Special editions of collectables for events like Soccer   Utilization of Gina’s more flexible production method
 World Cup or Olympic games                                as a tool for development of these products
What We Do

Where We Are                Harvesting Stage: Channels and Sales Force
Our Options

Game Plan      Small vs. Large            New vs. Existing                          Other Channels
               Large and accounts         Division into new & existing clients      Online services to its
Real Option
               are handled by direct      is essential because existing             clients for quicker
               sales force.               clients require sales force which is      service. Additionally,
               Small accounts are         good at maintaining relationships.        Steenland should
               passed on to               New clients require sales force           register itself with the
               distributors.              which is aggressive and                   agencies for
                                          convincing.                               promotional gifts.



                                                  Large Accounts:
                                                  Direct Sales force




                                 Mature market:                      New market:
                                  UK, US, EU                     China, India, East EU

                         Focus: Maintain old clients        Focus: Pursue new clients and
                         1 key account manager              maintain existing ones
                                                            3 Sales Managers and 3 sales
                                                            representatives to acquire new
                                                            accounts and 1 to maintain existing
What We Do

Where We Are                    Harvesting Stage: Operations
                                                                                             Operations
Our Options
                                                                                           concept for the
Game Plan                                                                                 harvesting stage
                   Production Synergy                                                       is to exploit
Real Option        Steenland operated at 100% utilization rate in 2005. Together with     current capacity
                   Gina, a combined capacity, of 3200 ton/year, will be again fully
                                                                                                 and
                   utilized by 2008.
                                                                                            capabilities.
                   Supply Chain benefits from centralized planning and purchasing.
                   Therefore higher bargaining power and less personnel.

                   Given current production limitations, Steenland’s product will be
                   limited to flat chocolate items.



Costs                             Steenland’s facilities remains as is, focusing on the production of generic
Reduction in seasonality of       coins. Gina, with its flexible capabilities, will focus on customized and
demand decreases inventory,       possibly new products.
ICC and improves payment               Generic
pattern.                                           Steenland                  Produce/
                                        coins                                                      Transport
                                                    Factory                   Package
The risk of high complexity
cost managed through                Receive
efficient production planning        Order
and delaying variation.                               Gina                    Produce/
                                                                                                   Transport
                                   Customized        Factory                  Package
What We Do

Where We Are                       Harvesting Stage: Human Resource
Our Options

Game Plan
                        The most important issue during the harvesting             Four Important
Real Option             stage is how to motivate Steenland’s employees,            Issues:
                        especially sales people.                                   1 Culture Change
                                                                                   2 Motivation
                        Motivating Process:
                                                                                   3 Performance
                        Clear and reasonable targets
                        Sound monitoring system                                     Management
                        Training and developing program                           4 Compensation
                        Fair rating standard                                        and Benefits
                        Attractive reward and recognition program



 Reward system:                   Incentives:
 Base Salary                      Stock option
 For full time direct             for sales managers
 labours                          Bonus
                                  based on company-wide performance for staffs
 Salary per hour                  Commission
 For part-time                    for sales representatives; high commission fee
 employees
What We Do

Where We Are                       Harvesting Stage: Results
Our Options

               Balance Sheet 2008
Game Plan                                                      Free Cash Flow 2008
               Fixed Assets                                    Net Income                         1,062,524
Real Option    Tangible
               Financial                                       Depreciation                         150,000
                                                     276000    Interest                             283,182
               Current Assets
               Inventory              3649865                  Gross Cash Flow                    1,495,707
               Recievable             3410148
               Bank, Cash              600000
                                                    7660013    Inventory                           (852,865)
               Total Assets                      € 7,936,013   Recievable                          (392,318)
               Equity
                                                               Short-term debt                       (3,949)
               Share Capital            90000                  Investment                                 0
               Premium                 188000
               Retained Earning       2559301
                                                               FCF                                  246,574
               Revaluation reserve    1233982
                                                   4071283
               Liability                (3949)           0
                                                               Return rate                             0.15
               Provision               157770                  Inflation Rate                           0.04
               Long-term debt         1657180
               Short-term debt        2049780
                                                    3864730    Company Value                      2,577,823
               Total Liabilities                 € 7,936,013
                                                               Benchmarking           Steenland     Hershey's
                                                               ROA                     13.39%
                                                               ROE                     26.10%
               Compare to our competitors,                     ROIC                    25.41%        22.99%
               Hershey’s, our debt ratio and                   Time interest earned      5.30
                                                               Debt Ratio              48.70%        41.02%
               D-E ratio are still in the                      D-E Ratio               91.05%       172.55%
               reasonable range.
What We Do

Where We Are        2008: Decision, Decision, Decision
Our Options

Game Plan
                    In 2008, the company is at    Real Option
Real Option        full capacity, and valued at   Here, investors have an option; to divest
                   2.58M.                         profitably, or to continue – “planting”

                   ROE increases from 4% to       Decision criteria
                   26.10% in three years as a     •Target ROE, derived from the industry
                   result of increase in net      benchmarking
                   income.                        •Environmental factors such as industry trend and
                                                  market growth
                                                  •Plain Vanilla’s portfolio situation - ROIC must at
 Value for Potential Investors                    least match the investor’s rate of required return

 Company Strength
 • increased margins and sales
 • new streams of revenues
 • opened new markets and increased client base
 • market focus and expertise

 Future Growth Opportunities
 • investment plan for new products
 • cash to finance in part from new revenue
 stream
 • new Asian market opportunities for capacity
 expansion
What We Do

Where We Are                 Planting Stage: Marketing
Our Options

Game Plan

Real Option
               Segmentation chocolate promotional gifts market segment
               Positioning high quality and flexible solutions provider of chocolate promotional gifts
               Targeting large companies and promotional gifts distributors; retailers for licensed products



               Measures                                        Objectives

               Broader product range to respond to market      Become a reference solution provider in the
               needs                                           chocolate promotional gifts market segment

               New product development based on extra          Increase sales of high margin products
               technology
                                                               Increase the market by broadening possible
               Continued sales effort to boost orders,         product range
               building on market expertise gained and
               leveraging the increased capacity               Extend market knowledge to build on
                                                               created competitive advantage
               Increased market feedback required from
               sales people                                    Use market information in order to be on
                                                               the forefront of market developments
What We Do

Where We Are                   Planting Stage: Operations
Our Options
                                                                                             Operations
Game Plan         Investing in Production                                                  concept for the
                  Relocation of the Dutch and German production facilities to either      planting stage is
Real Option       Poland or Turkey, as low cost countries. Selection criteria are
                                                                                              to increase
                  suitability of M&A target, raw material accessibility, transportation
                  reliability, and favorable macro factors.                                 capacity and
                                                                                            capabilities
                  As new markets strengthen, offshored production caters to                  and reduce
                  regional demand. Steenland moves from a centralized system in                  cost.
                  the harvesting stage to a networked structure in the planting stage.
                   Offshoring comes with exchange rate risks, which must be
                  hedged.



                                Inventory
                                Offshoring production to
                                countries with less reliable
                                infrastructure an workforce
Supply Chain                    exposes us to high risk of
Industry benchmarking           unreliability. Higher level of
suggests room for               inventory will be required.
improvement in the cost
structure. Vertical
integration provides an
expensive but sustainable
improvement of margin.
What We Do

Where We Are                  Planting Stage: Human Resource
Our Options

Game Plan                                            Non-Financial Reward
                    Financial compensation                                     Four Important
                                                     Top managers:             Issues:
Real Option         should not be the only
                    motivator for                    •More recognition; more   1 Culture Change
                    employees, but                   respected.                2 Motivation
                                                     •Celebration Lunches      3 Performance
                    company care about the
                                                     •Awards
                    needs of their                                               Management
                                                     •Special Recognition
                    employees                        Clubs                     4 Compensation
                                                     •Promotions                 and Benefits




  Shift and sales              Sales and staffs:
  managers:                    Sales:
                               •Access to top executives
  •Increased decision          when they close the large
  authority                    contracts
  •Increased recognition
                               Staffs:
                               •Reasonable and
                               organized promotion
                               •Clear career path
What We Do

Where We Are        In a nutshell …
Our Options

Game Plan          1: Harvest 2006 to 2008
                   Growth through aggressive marketing effort
Real Option
                   Expand market to chocolate promotional gift market
                   Maintain current production capacity
                   Investment in sales force and organization
                   2: Decision Divest or Plant? 2008
                   3: Plant 2008-2010
                   Growth through optimized supply chain and marketing
                   Improve cost structure
                   Product Innovation


                                                               Planting
                                                Capacity-led growth with product innovation
        Harvesting                  Real
      Maintain capacity
                                   Option
        for sales-led


               nat
           growth                             Exit


    Year 1                Year 2            Year 3              Year 4               Year 5
What We Do

Where We Are
      Balance Sheet          31-12-2004                           2005
Our Options
       Fixed Assests
Game Plan
       Tangible                665,358                              637,000
       Financial                83,615                               89,000
Real Option                                748,973     -22,973                 726,000
       Current Assets
       Inventory              1,346,868                -49,868    1,297,000
       Recievable             2,569,939     29.04%    -216,939    2,353,000        23%
       Bank, Cash               183,509                             585,000
                                          4,100,316                           4,235,000
       Total Assets
                                          4,849,289                           4,961,000
       Equity
       Share Capital             90,000                              90,000
       Premium                  187,778                             188,000
       Retained Earning          79,885                393,115      473,000
       Revaluation reserve    1,634,018               (200,018)   1,434,000
                                          1,991,681                           2,185,000
       Liability
       Provision                751,410               (148,410)     603,000
       Long-term debt           673,924                (16,924)     657,000
       Short-term debt        1,432,274                 83,726    1,516,000
                                          2,857,608                           2,776,000
       Total Liabilities
                                          4,849,289                           4,961,000
What We Do

Where We Are
               2006                                        2007
Our Options
               Fixed Assests                               Fixed Assests
Game Plan      Tangible                                    Tangible
               Financial                                   Financial
Real Option                                     576,000                                         426,000
               Current Assets                              Current Assets
               Inventory           2,047,000               Inventory               2,797,000
               Recievable          2,672,830               Recievable              3,017,830
               Bank, Cash            675,000               Bank, Cash                585,000
                                               5,394,830                                       6,399,830
               Total Assets                                Total Assets
                                               5,970,830                                       6,825,830
               Equity                                      Equity
               Share Capital           90000               Share Capital               90000
               Premium                188000               Premium                    188000
               Retained Earning      831,078               Retained Earning        1,496,777
               Revaluation reserve 1,233,982               Revaluation reserve     1,033,964
                                               2,343,060                                       2,808,741
               Liability           1000179.6          -  Liability               537729.2712          -
               Provision             454,590             Provision                   306,180
               Long-term debt      1,657,180             Long-term debt            1,657,180
               Short-term debt     1,516,000             Short-term debt           2,053,729
                                               3,627,770                                       4,017,089
               Total Liabilities                         Total Liabilities
                                               5,970,830                                       6,825,830
What We Do

Where We Are
  Budget 2005 (euro*1000)              2004 GrowthF2005        Growth R 2005            GrowthF2006
                                                                                               %        Growth %
                                                                                                             F2007               F2008
Our Options
  Revenues                           8,850    13%     9,975      14%       10,121       15%   11,621    13%    13,121        13% 14,827
Game PlanDecrease stock
  Increase /                          194                       -128%            (55)
  Production (Gross Margin)          9,044    10%     9,975      11%       10,066             11,621           13,121            14,827
Real Option
  Production Costs(Variable)
  Chocolate & Packaging              5,190    10%     5,690       8%           5,613          6,480             7,317             8,268
  as % of revenues                    57.4%            57.0%                                    55.8%                55.8%          55.8%
  Direct Labour                      1,918     9%     2,100      10%           2,113          2,439             2,754              3,112
  as % of revenues                                     21.1%                                    24.5%                27.6%          31.2%
  Total                              7,108    10%     7,790       9%      7,726               8,920            10,071             11,380
  as % of revenues                                     78.1%                                    76.8%                76.8%          76.8%
  Contribution Margin                1,936    13%     2,185      21%      2,340               2,701             3,050             3,447


  Fixed Costs
  Personel                            521     10%      575                596                   575               575               575
  Online website                                                                                  5                 5                 5
  Sales                                309    -29%      220               220                   420               420               420
  Housing                              451      -4%     435               435                   435               435               435
  Other                                401    -10%      360               459                   360               360               360
  Depreciation                          89     46%      130               141                   150               150               150
  Total                              1,771      -3%   1,720       4%     1,850                1,945             1,945             1,945

  EBIT                                165     182%     465      197%      490                   756             1,105             1,502
  Interest                     ###    134      12%     150       24%      166                   242               283               283
  EBT                                  31     916%     315      945%      324                   514               822             1,219
  Tax                                   9     956%      95                 97                   156               156               156

  Net Profit                           22     900%     220      931%      227                   358                  666          1,063
What We Do

Where We Are

Our Options

Game Plan
Assumptions:
1. We assume that the 8 sales reps can get total 1.5M contract each year due to good motivation program.
Real Option
2. We assume that the proportation of variable cost to total sales is the same
3 We assume that we do not increase managers; the personal wages are similar
4. We plan to increase the on line website service for business customers; therefore, the initial cost will be 5,000 each year
5. We assume that the extract 8 reps total salaries will be 170,000; and the maintance cost will be 30,000. They increase the total sales cost
6. We do not plan to move to the new factory. Housing cost is the same
7. Other cost and depreciation cost will maintain the same as those in 2005
8. Interest rate will be 8% in each year
9. Tax expence is refering to the data showed in the slides
10. When increasing 1M sales, inventory increases 0.5M
11. We assume that receivable to sales has the same proportion in each year.
12. We assume that cash to sales has the same proportion in each year.
13 We do not raise any capital through shareholders
14. We do not issue any dividends
15. Tax provision decreases equally each year
16. Leverage finance by borrowing short-term and long-term debts; and payback debts when we have extract cash

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Rizal A

  • 1. What We Do Where We Are Our Options Game Plan Real Option Steenland Chocolate Nat Chaturaphat Puneet Grover Markiyan Kychma Luis Portela Krista Yang
  • 2. What We Do Where We Are Steenland and Gina Our Options Synergy Game Plan - Steenland’s market leader position Real Option - Gina’s customised products, large coins Efficiency - Cost efficiency: remove unprofitable products - Channel network Revenue of €10m in 2006, promising 30% growth in sales volume Capacity: Steenland: 100% utilisation, Gina: 25% utilisation Leveraging Core Competencies Strong points: - Superior quality - Recognised B2B brand and reliable partners - Alliances and key accounts How it can be used: - Acquire new customers - Focus on premium niche Boost sales: -Through more aggressive marketing - Product innovation
  • 3. What We Do Where We Are Turnaround Results Our Options Game Plan Judging the turnaround result by benchmarking with Real Option industry peers Financial ratios RoA,RoIC, RoS, RoE are still relatively low Asset utilisation is good and improving Leverage and liquidity ratios within industry norm Ratio Hershey Lindt & Sprüngli Steenland Return On Assets 15% 11% 2% Return On Invested Capital 23% 17% 10% Return On Sales 10% 8% 1% Return On Equity 45% 21% 4% Cost of Goods Sold To Sales 56% 52% 57% Net Margin 10% 8% 2% Inventories Days Held 77 91 46 Accounts Receivable Days 36 108 88 Accounts Payable Days 13 30 35 Current Ratio 0.93 2.01 1.88 Total Debt / Common Equity 172% 19% 59%
  • 4. What We Do Where We Are Product Portfolio Our Options Game Plan Steenland Gina Real Option Coins Personalized coins 82% of volume, market share 20%, core leader in this segment, Steenland & product, higher margins for customized Gina together have 80% share, almost and incensed products a monopoly. Bars Medallions 2% of volume, thin margin for all makes large coins which Steenland companies, but they make a bit more profit cannot make as they are catering to a particular niche Cigarettes: 8% of volume, one of 3 suppliers, but dying market
  • 5. What We Do Where We Are Industry Analysis: Markets Our Options Game Plan Chocolate promotional gift market lies Real Option between the promotional and chocolate markets Generic Chocolate Industry Promotional Gifts Market Regional variation of market: Total market: $18 Billion Saturated: UK, Belgium Demand according to consumer trend, Reaching maturity: US, France, Italy Strong need to be aware of upcoming trends. Growth region: China, India, E. EU Food gifts constitute 3.8% of the promotional gifts Popular distribution channel: Highly fragmented market and most of Western Europe: Supermarkets and the production takes place in Asia large retail chains Eastern Europe: Traditional grocers US: Convenience stores Largest segment: Moulded bars and boxed chocolates
  • 6. What We Do Where We Are Industry Analysis: Confectionary Market Trend Our Options Game Plan The global market for confectionery grew at a steady rate over the Real Option past five years, and this trend is expected to continue throughout the forecast period, with good performances from the Chinese, Polish and Indian markets driving global revenues upwards. The global market is expected to reach a value of $107.6 billion by the end of 2010 CAGR: 1.9% (2005 – 2010) Rest of the Asia Pacific world 6% 17% US Europe 26% Source: Data monitor 51% Global confectionary market by Type Confectionary Market by Geography
  • 7. What We Do Where We Are Industry Analysis: Successful Growth Our Options Game Plan Real Option Arcor Group Argentina-based confectionary corporation - Vertical integration - International expansion by M&A of local production - Establish strong distribution foothold then marketing - Concentrate on large accounts - Product innovation Chocolate House USA-based Strong brand Product innovation Madelaine USA-based Subsidiary synergies Customer service Move from retail focus to wholesale Customization Constant incremental improvement Wide product line HR management Following market trend
  • 8. What We Do Where We Are Cost Structure and Margin Our Options Game Plan Real Option Competitors are more efficient with raw materials and/or direct labour Reducing raw material cost by vertical integration Reduce direct labour by offshoring, nearshoring Steenland purchases liquid chocolate from third parties, such as Barry Callebaut, hence it pays extra 5% for raw materials compared to others, who own chocolate production Steenland’s products are relatively customised, hence more labour intensive
  • 9. What We Do Where We Are Two approaches Our Options options Game Plan Real Option Given these macro, meso, and micro factors, the investors of Steenland can approach their investment with two views: Harvesting and Planting
  • 10. What We Do Where We Are What is Harvesting Our Options options Game Plan Real Option Objective explore the best opportunities with the available capacity, optimising its utilization Time frame 3 years Growth and expansion through new clients, by exploring growing markets and new key accounts Production Market gifts market, focused on no extra investments in capacity or chocolate promotional gifts segment relocation Product focus on promotional Investment gifts and licensed gifts market specialized sales products force, focused on big accounts New product development use core capabilities and techniques
  • 11. What We Do Where We Are What is Planting Our Options options Game Plan Real Option Objective leverage on our core capabilities to explore the whole of the chocolate promotional gifts market Time frame 5 years Growth and expansion through new clients, new growing markets and new products development Market gifts market, focused on Production investments in relocation and extra chocolate promotional gifts segment capacity in new Asian markets (low Product broader product range of labour cost countries) promotional gifts and licensed products, responding to market Investment needs extended gifts market focused sales effort, extended production capacity New product development investment in extra technology
  • 12. What We Do Where We Are Stakeholders, Time, and Real Option Our Options options Game Plan “Harvesting” and “Planting” views can potentially Real Option create a conflict of interest between stakeholders. Investors only harvest and owners only plant ? - Not if you put Time in between them - Harvesting gives investors fast return and provide company with cash to grow. Planting provides the company with a growth plan but also provide exiting investors with a future plan they can sell. Both gain from lower risk. “Timing and Planting sequencing Harvesting Real Option Stage is the key Stage Intermediate to a evaluation: divest or invest? unified Exit effort to success” Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
  • 13. What We Do Where We Are Harvesting Stage: Marketing Our Options Game Plan Segmentation chocolate promotional gifts market segment Real Option Positioning high quality producer of flat shape chocolate gifts Targeting large companies and promotional gifts distributors; retailers for licensed products Measures Objectives Segmentation according to Expand sales force by hiring promotional Increase sales by an average of 20%, with gifts specialists a focus on the most profitable products and decision maker geographic markets benefits: high Sales effort focused on large corporate and quality promotional gifts accounts and growing Create long lasting partnerships and stamped markets (Asia-Pacific and China) costumer relations with gift products chocolate gifts Product development based on current Faze out lower margin products and technologies diminish dependency on seasonal products Coin and bar shaped New flat shaped products Promotional gifts for airlines, hotel chains, casinos, Flat moulded products shaped on costumer demand coffee and food retail chains, financial institutions indented for promotional purposes and events Special editions of collectables for events like Soccer Utilization of Gina’s more flexible production method World Cup or Olympic games as a tool for development of these products
  • 14. What We Do Where We Are Harvesting Stage: Channels and Sales Force Our Options Game Plan Small vs. Large New vs. Existing Other Channels Large and accounts Division into new & existing clients Online services to its Real Option are handled by direct is essential because existing clients for quicker sales force. clients require sales force which is service. Additionally, Small accounts are good at maintaining relationships. Steenland should passed on to New clients require sales force register itself with the distributors. which is aggressive and agencies for convincing. promotional gifts. Large Accounts: Direct Sales force Mature market: New market: UK, US, EU China, India, East EU Focus: Maintain old clients Focus: Pursue new clients and 1 key account manager maintain existing ones 3 Sales Managers and 3 sales representatives to acquire new accounts and 1 to maintain existing
  • 15. What We Do Where We Are Harvesting Stage: Operations Operations Our Options concept for the Game Plan harvesting stage Production Synergy is to exploit Real Option Steenland operated at 100% utilization rate in 2005. Together with current capacity Gina, a combined capacity, of 3200 ton/year, will be again fully and utilized by 2008. capabilities. Supply Chain benefits from centralized planning and purchasing. Therefore higher bargaining power and less personnel. Given current production limitations, Steenland’s product will be limited to flat chocolate items. Costs Steenland’s facilities remains as is, focusing on the production of generic Reduction in seasonality of coins. Gina, with its flexible capabilities, will focus on customized and demand decreases inventory, possibly new products. ICC and improves payment Generic pattern. Steenland Produce/ coins Transport Factory Package The risk of high complexity cost managed through Receive efficient production planning Order and delaying variation. Gina Produce/ Transport Customized Factory Package
  • 16. What We Do Where We Are Harvesting Stage: Human Resource Our Options Game Plan The most important issue during the harvesting Four Important Real Option stage is how to motivate Steenland’s employees, Issues: especially sales people. 1 Culture Change 2 Motivation Motivating Process: 3 Performance Clear and reasonable targets Sound monitoring system Management Training and developing program 4 Compensation Fair rating standard and Benefits Attractive reward and recognition program Reward system: Incentives: Base Salary Stock option For full time direct for sales managers labours Bonus based on company-wide performance for staffs Salary per hour Commission For part-time for sales representatives; high commission fee employees
  • 17. What We Do Where We Are Harvesting Stage: Results Our Options Balance Sheet 2008 Game Plan Free Cash Flow 2008 Fixed Assets Net Income 1,062,524 Real Option Tangible Financial Depreciation 150,000 276000 Interest 283,182 Current Assets Inventory 3649865 Gross Cash Flow 1,495,707 Recievable 3410148 Bank, Cash 600000 7660013 Inventory (852,865) Total Assets € 7,936,013 Recievable (392,318) Equity Short-term debt (3,949) Share Capital 90000 Investment 0 Premium 188000 Retained Earning 2559301 FCF 246,574 Revaluation reserve 1233982 4071283 Liability (3949) 0 Return rate 0.15 Provision 157770 Inflation Rate 0.04 Long-term debt 1657180 Short-term debt 2049780 3864730 Company Value 2,577,823 Total Liabilities € 7,936,013 Benchmarking Steenland Hershey's ROA 13.39% ROE 26.10% Compare to our competitors, ROIC 25.41% 22.99% Hershey’s, our debt ratio and Time interest earned 5.30 Debt Ratio 48.70% 41.02% D-E ratio are still in the D-E Ratio 91.05% 172.55% reasonable range.
  • 18. What We Do Where We Are 2008: Decision, Decision, Decision Our Options Game Plan In 2008, the company is at Real Option Real Option full capacity, and valued at Here, investors have an option; to divest 2.58M. profitably, or to continue – “planting” ROE increases from 4% to Decision criteria 26.10% in three years as a •Target ROE, derived from the industry result of increase in net benchmarking income. •Environmental factors such as industry trend and market growth •Plain Vanilla’s portfolio situation - ROIC must at Value for Potential Investors least match the investor’s rate of required return Company Strength • increased margins and sales • new streams of revenues • opened new markets and increased client base • market focus and expertise Future Growth Opportunities • investment plan for new products • cash to finance in part from new revenue stream • new Asian market opportunities for capacity expansion
  • 19. What We Do Where We Are Planting Stage: Marketing Our Options Game Plan Real Option Segmentation chocolate promotional gifts market segment Positioning high quality and flexible solutions provider of chocolate promotional gifts Targeting large companies and promotional gifts distributors; retailers for licensed products Measures Objectives Broader product range to respond to market Become a reference solution provider in the needs chocolate promotional gifts market segment New product development based on extra Increase sales of high margin products technology Increase the market by broadening possible Continued sales effort to boost orders, product range building on market expertise gained and leveraging the increased capacity Extend market knowledge to build on created competitive advantage Increased market feedback required from sales people Use market information in order to be on the forefront of market developments
  • 20. What We Do Where We Are Planting Stage: Operations Our Options Operations Game Plan Investing in Production concept for the Relocation of the Dutch and German production facilities to either planting stage is Real Option Poland or Turkey, as low cost countries. Selection criteria are to increase suitability of M&A target, raw material accessibility, transportation reliability, and favorable macro factors. capacity and capabilities As new markets strengthen, offshored production caters to and reduce regional demand. Steenland moves from a centralized system in cost. the harvesting stage to a networked structure in the planting stage. Offshoring comes with exchange rate risks, which must be hedged. Inventory Offshoring production to countries with less reliable infrastructure an workforce Supply Chain exposes us to high risk of Industry benchmarking unreliability. Higher level of suggests room for inventory will be required. improvement in the cost structure. Vertical integration provides an expensive but sustainable improvement of margin.
  • 21. What We Do Where We Are Planting Stage: Human Resource Our Options Game Plan Non-Financial Reward Financial compensation Four Important Top managers: Issues: Real Option should not be the only motivator for •More recognition; more 1 Culture Change employees, but respected. 2 Motivation •Celebration Lunches 3 Performance company care about the •Awards needs of their Management •Special Recognition employees Clubs 4 Compensation •Promotions and Benefits Shift and sales Sales and staffs: managers: Sales: •Access to top executives •Increased decision when they close the large authority contracts •Increased recognition Staffs: •Reasonable and organized promotion •Clear career path
  • 22. What We Do Where We Are In a nutshell … Our Options Game Plan 1: Harvest 2006 to 2008 Growth through aggressive marketing effort Real Option Expand market to chocolate promotional gift market Maintain current production capacity Investment in sales force and organization 2: Decision Divest or Plant? 2008 3: Plant 2008-2010 Growth through optimized supply chain and marketing Improve cost structure Product Innovation Planting Capacity-led growth with product innovation Harvesting Real Maintain capacity Option for sales-led nat growth Exit Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
  • 23. What We Do Where We Are Balance Sheet 31-12-2004 2005 Our Options Fixed Assests Game Plan Tangible 665,358 637,000 Financial 83,615 89,000 Real Option 748,973 -22,973 726,000 Current Assets Inventory 1,346,868 -49,868 1,297,000 Recievable 2,569,939 29.04% -216,939 2,353,000 23% Bank, Cash 183,509 585,000 4,100,316 4,235,000 Total Assets 4,849,289 4,961,000 Equity Share Capital 90,000 90,000 Premium 187,778 188,000 Retained Earning 79,885 393,115 473,000 Revaluation reserve 1,634,018 (200,018) 1,434,000 1,991,681 2,185,000 Liability Provision 751,410 (148,410) 603,000 Long-term debt 673,924 (16,924) 657,000 Short-term debt 1,432,274 83,726 1,516,000 2,857,608 2,776,000 Total Liabilities 4,849,289 4,961,000
  • 24. What We Do Where We Are 2006 2007 Our Options Fixed Assests Fixed Assests Game Plan Tangible Tangible Financial Financial Real Option 576,000 426,000 Current Assets Current Assets Inventory 2,047,000 Inventory 2,797,000 Recievable 2,672,830 Recievable 3,017,830 Bank, Cash 675,000 Bank, Cash 585,000 5,394,830 6,399,830 Total Assets Total Assets 5,970,830 6,825,830 Equity Equity Share Capital 90000 Share Capital 90000 Premium 188000 Premium 188000 Retained Earning 831,078 Retained Earning 1,496,777 Revaluation reserve 1,233,982 Revaluation reserve 1,033,964 2,343,060 2,808,741 Liability 1000179.6 - Liability 537729.2712 - Provision 454,590 Provision 306,180 Long-term debt 1,657,180 Long-term debt 1,657,180 Short-term debt 1,516,000 Short-term debt 2,053,729 3,627,770 4,017,089 Total Liabilities Total Liabilities 5,970,830 6,825,830
  • 25. What We Do Where We Are Budget 2005 (euro*1000) 2004 GrowthF2005 Growth R 2005 GrowthF2006 % Growth % F2007 F2008 Our Options Revenues 8,850 13% 9,975 14% 10,121 15% 11,621 13% 13,121 13% 14,827 Game PlanDecrease stock Increase / 194 -128% (55) Production (Gross Margin) 9,044 10% 9,975 11% 10,066 11,621 13,121 14,827 Real Option Production Costs(Variable) Chocolate & Packaging 5,190 10% 5,690 8% 5,613 6,480 7,317 8,268 as % of revenues 57.4% 57.0% 55.8% 55.8% 55.8% Direct Labour 1,918 9% 2,100 10% 2,113 2,439 2,754 3,112 as % of revenues 21.1% 24.5% 27.6% 31.2% Total 7,108 10% 7,790 9% 7,726 8,920 10,071 11,380 as % of revenues 78.1% 76.8% 76.8% 76.8% Contribution Margin 1,936 13% 2,185 21% 2,340 2,701 3,050 3,447 Fixed Costs Personel 521 10% 575 596 575 575 575 Online website 5 5 5 Sales 309 -29% 220 220 420 420 420 Housing 451 -4% 435 435 435 435 435 Other 401 -10% 360 459 360 360 360 Depreciation 89 46% 130 141 150 150 150 Total 1,771 -3% 1,720 4% 1,850 1,945 1,945 1,945 EBIT 165 182% 465 197% 490 756 1,105 1,502 Interest ### 134 12% 150 24% 166 242 283 283 EBT 31 916% 315 945% 324 514 822 1,219 Tax 9 956% 95 97 156 156 156 Net Profit 22 900% 220 931% 227 358 666 1,063
  • 26. What We Do Where We Are Our Options Game Plan Assumptions: 1. We assume that the 8 sales reps can get total 1.5M contract each year due to good motivation program. Real Option 2. We assume that the proportation of variable cost to total sales is the same 3 We assume that we do not increase managers; the personal wages are similar 4. We plan to increase the on line website service for business customers; therefore, the initial cost will be 5,000 each year 5. We assume that the extract 8 reps total salaries will be 170,000; and the maintance cost will be 30,000. They increase the total sales cost 6. We do not plan to move to the new factory. Housing cost is the same 7. Other cost and depreciation cost will maintain the same as those in 2005 8. Interest rate will be 8% in each year 9. Tax expence is refering to the data showed in the slides 10. When increasing 1M sales, inventory increases 0.5M 11. We assume that receivable to sales has the same proportion in each year. 12. We assume that cash to sales has the same proportion in each year. 13 We do not raise any capital through shareholders 14. We do not issue any dividends 15. Tax provision decreases equally each year 16. Leverage finance by borrowing short-term and long-term debts; and payback debts when we have extract cash

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. Total salary per year: 170K Distributor margin: 12% Mature market: 80% sales * 30% sales through distributors * volume * 12% = Dist. Fee New market: 20% sales * 50% sales through distributors * volume * 12% = Dist. Fee
  2. Full capacity volume estimate = 2004’s 1597 ton x 1/0.75 utilzation x1.5 for gina = 3194