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PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE


                                           10 10 10
                                          QUESTIONS   DEVELOPERS   AGENTS
                                                                            ILM ■ THR
                                          QUARTERLY          MONITOR




            QUARTER BAROMETER ANALYSIS OF THE PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET CONFIDENCE

                                        4th QUARTER 2008 vs 1st QUARTER 2009




                                                                                                  II L M
                                                                                                     LM
                                                                                               INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS




   II L M
      LM
INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS


                                                                                                                  1
                                                                                        Lisbon, 26 February 2009
TABLE OF CONTENTS

    Introduction                                                                                                                 3

    1 - Residential Tourism Market Confidence                                                                                    4

    2.1 - Level of business activity - Sales                                                                                     5

    2.2 - Level of business activity – Holiday Rentals                                                                           6

    3.1 Weight f S l
    3 1 - W i ht of Sales per t
                              typology – A t
                                  l      Apartments,Townhouses and Vill
                                                 tT     h        d Villas                                                        7

    3.2 - Weight of Holiday Rentals per tipology – Apartaments and Villas                                                       10

    4 - Market Interest in the regions of Oeste, Lisboa , Algarve and Porto in the 4th Quarter 2008                             12

    5.1 - Market Interest in the 4th Quarter 2008, per Country of Origin: Sales                                                 13

    5.2 - Market Interest in the 4th Quarter 2008, per Country of Origin: Holiday Rentals                                       14

    6 - Ranking of the buying decision factors for the 4th Quarter 2008                                                         15

    7 - Markets that represented a competitive threat to Portugal in the 1st Quarter 2009                                       16

    8.1 - Overall level of confidence in the Portuguese residential tourism market for the 2nd Quarter 2009 – Sales             17

    8.2
    8 2 - Overall level of confidence in the Portuguese residential tourism market for the 2nd Quarter 2009 – Holiday Rentals   18

    9 - Marketing measures that entities are considering to implement on the 1st Quarter 2009                                   19

    10 – Final conclusions ILM ■ THR                                                                                            20

   II L M
      LM
INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS
PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE


                10 10 10
                QUESTIONS           DEVELOPERS   AGENTS
                                                          ILM ■ THR
              QUARTERLY                    MONITOR




          INTRODUCTION
          Developed by ILM ■ THR, the 10-10-10 Residential Tourism Survey consists of a quarterly barometer analysis, the objective of which is to evaluate the
          market’s level of confidence, performance and trends of the tourist real estate sector in Portugal.

          This analysis is one of the three initiatives launched by ILM ■ THR during 2008, under the umbrella brand of “Portugal Residential Tourism Market
          Intelligence”, which have a common objective – to provide market information, and collecting detailed and updated information on the Residential
          Tourism.

          For the development of the present analysis, a questionnaire comprising10 questions was submitted to the following Developers and Real Estate Agents -
          leaders in the national market:

                            8 Developers:
                                     Norte Golfe Promoções Turísticas e Imobiliárias, S.A. - Porto
                                     Bom Sucesso - Óbidos Empreendimentos Turísticos, S.A. - Óbidos
                                     ORIZON CAMPOREAL S.A. - Óbidos
                                     MSF - TUR.IM, SGPS, S.A. - Lisboa
                                     Newlyn Portugal - Algarve
                                     Pestana Imobiliária - Algarve
                                     Vale do Lobo, Resort Turístico de Luxo, S. A. - Algarve
                                                                                       g
                                     Grupo Oceânico – Oeste e Algarve

                            8 Real Estate Agents:
                                     Abacus Savills - Lisboa
                                     Atlantic Estates - Algarve, Lisboa e Costa de Prata
                                     Garvetur - Sociedade de Mediação Imobiliária S.A. - Algarve
                                                                      ç                    g
                                     IRG International Reality Group - Lisboa
                                     John D Griffiths - Algarve
                                     Prunty's Overseas Properties S.A. - Lisboa
                                     Sadlers Mediação Imobiliária - Knight Frank - Algarve
                                     Winkworth - Algarve

      II L M
         LM
   INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS
                                                                                                                                                           3
PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE


                10 10 10
                QUESTIONS           DEVELOPERS   AGENTS
                                                           ILM ■ THR
              QUARTERLY                    MONITOR




          1 - RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET CONFIDENCE

                                                                                                                                      CONFIDENCE
                       1st Quarter 2009 vs 4th Quarter 2008

                                                                Residential Tourism Market
                                                                       Confidence
                                                            1st Quarter 2009 vs 4th Quarter 2008

                                                                                                                                                80%
                                                                       40%
                                                                                                                                           LOW TO AVERAGE
                                                                             27%
                                                             13%
                                                                                   13%
                                                                                             7%


                                                          Low
                                                                Average Average
                                                                                Average
                                                                  Low                      High
                                                                                 high
                                       Comparing the 1st quarter 2009 with 4th quarter 2008, 13% of the participants in the analysis have classified the market confidence as
                                       low, 40% average low and 27% average.

                                       It is important to highlight that in the perspective of the Developers, the market confidence appears slightly higher when compared with
                                       that of the Real Estate Agents.

                                       Qualitative comments:

                                       Developers:
                                       “Potential clients are insecure and not ready for investment decisions”.
                                       “Media reports and continued bank problems have totally scared people off in investing -- even for those who have the money”.

      II L M
         LM                            Real Estate Agents:
                                       “Currently we do not see any difference in perceptions in Q1 when compared with Q4 2008 which was quite depressed”.
   INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS
                                                                                                                                                                            4
                                       “We hope that by the Q4 2009 the confidence will return to the market”.
                                       “We predict a market bottom around March - April at which time it will regain strength”.
PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE


                10 10 10
                QUESTIONS           DEVELOPERS   AGENTS
                                                          ILM ■ THR
              QUARTERLY                    MONITOR




          2.1 - LEVEL OF BUSINESS ACTIVITY - SALES

                                                                                                                                                      SALES
                       3rd Quarter 2008 vs 4th Quarter 2008

                                                           Level of Business Activity - Sales
                                                             3rd Quarter 2008 vs 4th Quarter 2008



                                                                                                                                                            69%
                                                                                69%

                                                                                                                                                          SIMILAR
                                                                      31%

                                                                                             0%


                                                              Lower
                                                                            Similar
                                                                                          Higher


                                        In the opinion of the Developers the level of Business Activity on Sales has been similar in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2008 whereas the
                                                              Developers,
                                        Real Estate Agents consider that the level has been lower for the same period.

                                        Considering the analysis per Region, the participating entities consider that the level of business activity diminished in the Algarve, and
                                        maintained levels in the areas of Lisbon, Porto and Oeste.

                                        Developers:
                                        “Investorsquot; are looking for bargain buys, but we are not prepared to discount to the levels they are looking for.”.

                                        Real Estate Agents:
                                        “Strong deterioration in market conditions from October to end December”.
                                        “The quantity does not express the drop in turnover. We felt a big drop in sales price from Q3 to Q4 2008”.
                                        “We have sold the same number of properties as in Q3 2008 but at lower prices”.
                                         We                                                                        prices
      II L M
         LM
   INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS
                                                                                                                                                                              5
PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE


                10 10 10
                QUESTIONS           DEVELOPERS   AGENTS
                                                          ILM ■ THR
              QUARTERLY                    MONITOR




          2.2 - LEVEL OF BUSINESS ACTIVITY – HOLIDAY RENTALS
                       3rd Quarter 2008 vs 4th Quarter 2008
                                                                                                                                        HOLIDAY RENTALS
                                                                Level of Business Activity – Holiday Rentals
                                                                            3rd Quarter 2008 vs 4th Quarter 2008

                                                                                                                                                       50%
                                                                                                                                                     LOWER
                                                                      50%
                                                                                   50%
                                                                                                                                                       50%
                                                                                                                                                     SIMILAR
                                                                                                 0%


                                                              Lower
                                                                              Similar
                                                                                              Higher


                                        The holiday rentals is only applicable to 8 of the survey participants and 50% of them consider that the level of business activity was
                                        similar and the remainder that the it was similar.

                                        In the opinion of the Developers, the level of business activity for holiday rentals was similar, whereas the Real Estate Agents consider
                                        that there are indications of a decline in this area.

                                        Analysing the data by Region enables us o conclude that in the Algarve and in Lisbon the level of business activity decreased.

                                        “The Q3 is the high season and the Q4 is low season”.

                                        “Our rentals business in predominantly a Q3 business. We do not expect to see strong rentals in Q4”.

      II L M                            “The clients generally book, concentrate on summer holiday rental and first 2 months”.
         LM
   INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS
                                                                                                                                                                            6
PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE


                10 10 10
                QUESTIONS           DEVELOPERS   AGENTS
                                                          ILM ■ THR
              QUARTERLY                    MONITOR




          3.1 – WEIGHT OF SALES PER TYPOLOGY - APARTAMENTS
                       Sales activity in the 4th Quarter 2008
                                    y

                The apartment supply is lower for typologies T0 and T4.
                                                                                                                    APARTMENTS
                A significant part of the apartment sales was of typology T2 with 33%,
                                                                                                                   T0       T1       T2          T3        T4
                followed by the T3 which represented 18% of the business activity.
                                                                                          Developers             15.3% 15.1% 33.0% 18.6% 5.4%
                Comparing the opinions of Developers with the Real Estate Agents
                the distribution of the business activity is similar, except for the T0
                                                                                          Real Estate
                typology. This may be justified by different sales and marketing                                   5.5% 11,5% 38.1% 27.4% 2.3%
                                                                                          Agents
                approaches.



                                                                                                             Trend of sales in the 1st Quarter
                                                                                                                   2009 - Apartments
                       Trend of sales in the 1st Quarter 2009 - Apartments


             According to the participants, the trend of the sales activity will be
             similar.
                                                                                                                                                      Similar
                                                                                                                                                      Decrease
                                                                                                                                                      Increase
                                                                                                                                                      I
                                                                                                                                                      Not Applicable




                                                                                             T0         T1         T2       T3       T4
      II L M
         LM
   INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS



                                                                                                                                                                7
PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE


                10 10 10
                QUESTIONS           DEVELOPERS   AGENTS
                                                          ILM ■ THR
              QUARTERLY                    MONITOR




          3.1 - WEIGHT OF SALES PER TYPOLOGY - TOWNHOUSES
                       Sales activity in the 4th Quarter 2008
                                    y

                                                                                                                TOWNHOUSES
             The behaviour is very similar in the opinion of all the participants.

                                                                                                                      TH2      TH3          TH4
             We see that the business generated with Townhouses (TH) of 2
             bedrooms is significant because, despite the average prices being
                                                                                                                     21.3%
                                                                                                                     21 3%    24.5%
                                                                                                                              24 5%       14.0%
                                                                                                                                          14 0%
                                                                                          Total
                                                                                          Ttl
             lower than TH3, the generated volume is very similar between them.

                                                                                          Developers                 22.1%    26.3%       11.7%

                                                                                          Real Estate Agents         20.0%    21.3%       17.5%

                       Trend of sales in the 1st Quarter 2009 - Townhouses

                                                                                                  Trend of the Townhouses sales in the 1st
             “There is less demand for Townhouses when compared with previous
             years”. The trend of the activity level for the Townhouses is likely to be                         Quarter 2009
             similar or to decrease.

             Especially in the case of Townhouses of 4 bedrooms it is more certain
             that there will be even less demand for this product.

             The opinions of the Real Estate Agents and the Developers coincides.                                                     Similar
                                                                                                                                      Decrease
                                                                                                                                      Increase
                                                                                                                                      Not Applicable



                                                                                                  TH2          TH3      TH4
      II L M
         LM
   INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS



                                                                                                                                                  8
PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE


                10 10 10
                QUESTIONS           DEVELOPERS   AGENTS
                                                          ILM ■ THR
              QUARTERLY                    MONITOR




          3.1 - WEIGHT OF SALES PER TYPOLOGY - VILLAS
                       Sales activity in the 4th Quarter 2008
                                    y
                                                                                                                    VILLAS
             Once again the opinions are similar among all the participants.
                                                                                                                    V2        V3      V4           V5
             The typology V2 is of minimal importance. The figures for V3 and V4
                                                                                         Total                     10,5%     33.0%   31.9%        11.3%
             are particularly significant.

                                                                                         Developers                7.0%      31.8%   34.4%        11.3%

                                                                                         Real Estate Agents        0.0%      23.3%   47.5%        16.0%


                       Trend of sales in the 1stt Quarter 2009 - Villas
                                                                                                      Trend of sales in the 1st Quarter 2009
             A higher volume of villa sales is foreseen for a price positioning at the                                - Villas
             high end of the market.

             The trend of villas sales in the near future is positive and there is a
             perception of improvement for V3 and V4.

             Moreover, we can observe that the Real Estate Agents are more
             positive than the Developers for this product in the 1st quarter 2009.                                                    Similar
                                                                                                                                       Decrease
                                                                                                                                       Increase
                                                                                                                                       Not Applicable




      II L M
         LM                                                                                           V2      V3     V4       V5
   INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS



                                                                                                                                                  9
PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE


                10 10 10
                QUESTIONS           DEVELOPERS   AGENTS
                                                          ILM ■ THR
              QUARTERLY                    MONITOR




          3.2 - WEIGHT OF HOLIDAY RENTALS PER TYPOLOGY- APARTMENTS
                       Holiday Rentals activity in the 4th Quarter 2008
                             y                y

                                                                                                                   APARTMENTS
             There is not enough information to evaluate the holiday rentals activity
             for the Real Estate Agents.                                                                        T0         T1           T2       T3        T4

                                                                                          Total
             We can identify that the major part of the demand, at least in this
                            y              jp                 ,                                               10.0%    35.0%           40.7%   11.7%      10%
             season, is positioned in apartments T1 and T2. This is different to
                                                                                          Developers
             sales, which are more active for the T2 and T3.                                                  10.0%    35.0%           45.0%   11.7%      10%

                                                                                          Real Estate
             “The demand of T2 has increased for the golf market”
                                                                                                               N.A.        N.A.        N.A.     N.A.      N.A.
                                                                                          Agents
             “The situation is similar with the transition of 2007 to 2008”

                                                                                                        Trend of holiday rentals in the
                                                                                                        1st Quarter 2009 - Apartments
    Trend of holiday rentals in the 1st Quarter 2009 - Apartments

             The trend is clearly to increase the business activity of holiday rentals
                                                                               rentals,
             which is normal considering that the 1st Quarter of the year usually
             has more activity.
                                                                                                                                               Similar
             The current business forecast does not necessarily mean that the
             movement will be reflected in the occupancy rates for the 1st Quarter.                                                            Decrease
             On the contrary we know that the bookings made by the British
                      contrary,
                                                                                                                                               Increase
             market are for the summer season and are traditionally prepared at
             this time of the year.                                                                                                            Not Applicable




                                                                                                  T0    T1    T2      T3          T4
      II L M
         LM
   INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS



                                                                                                                                                            10
PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE


                10 10 10
                QUESTIONS           DEVELOPERS   AGENTS
                                                          ILM ■ THR
              QUARTERLY                    MONITOR




          3.2 - WEIGHT OF HOLIDAY RENTALS PER TYPOLOGY - VILLAS
                         Holiday Rentals activity In the 4th Quarter 2008
                               y                y

                                                                                                                     VILLAS
             It is interesting to verify that villa holiday rental activity has a higher
             impact on the Real Estates Agents’ income than that of the                            Algarve             V2            V3               V4
             Developers.

                                                                                                                     3.75
                                                                                                                     3 75 %        28.75
                                                                                                                                   28 75 %          62.5
                                                                                                                                                    62 5 %
                                                                                           Total
             The possible reasons for this situation are:
                                                                                                                      7.5 %        11.7 %            10 %
                                                                                           Developers
             • Higher loyalty rate of the clients – there is not enough historical data
               in the case of the recent resorts.                                          Real Estate Agents                      32.5%             62.5%
                                                                                                                       Na
             • More consolidated distribution channels.

             • Larger diversity of product supply.
                                                                                                        Trend of holiday rentals in the 1st
                                                                                                              Quarter 2009 - Villas
                         Trend of holiday rentals in the 1st Quarter 2009 - Villas

             According to the participants, the trend for the level of activity is to be
             maintained.
                                                                                                                                          Similar
                                                                                                                                          Decrease
                                                                                                                                          Increase
                                                                                                                                          I
                                                                                                                                          Not Applicable



                                                                                                   T0    T1     T2     T3     T4
      II L M
         LM
   INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS



                                                                                                                                                      11
PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE


                10 10 10
                QUESTIONS           DEVELOPERS   AGENTS
                                                           ILM ■ THR
              QUARTERLY                    MONITOR




         4 - MARKET INTEREST IN THE REGIONS OF OESTE, LISBOA , ALGARVE AND PORTO IN THE 4th
               Quarter 2008
           th Quarter 2008 and trend for the 1st Quarter 2009
         4


                                                          WEAK INTEREST WITH TREND TO BE SIMILAR OR EVEN TO
                                                          DECREASE.
                                                          DECREASE



                             LISBOA
                                                          STRONG INTEREST WITH TREND TO BE SIMILAR.




                                                          WEAK INTEREST WITH TREND TO BE SIMILAR OR EVEN
                                                          INCREASE.



                              PORTO
                                                          STRONG INTEREST WITH TREND TO INCREASE.
      II L M
         LM
   INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS



                                                                                                         12
PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE


                10 10 10
                QUESTIONS           DEVELOPERS   AGENTS
                                                          ILM ■ THR
              QUARTERLY                    MONITOR




         5.1 – MARKET INTEREST IN THE 4th QUARTER 2008, PER COUNTRY OF ORIGIN: SALES




                                                                                                                                        BENELUX
PORTUGAL                                ENGLAND                       IRELAND         SPAIN         SCANDINAVIA     GERMANY

                                                                                                                                        INTEREST
INTEREST                                WEAK                          WEAK            INTEREST      SIMILAR         SIMILAR
                                                                                                                                        BETWEEN
BETWEEN                                 INTEREST                      INTEREST        BETWEEN       INTEREST WITH   INTEREST
                                                                                                                                        SIMILAR
SIMILAR                                 WITH TREND                    WITH TREND      SIMILAR AND   TREND TO BE     WITH TREND
                                                                                                                                        AND WEAK
AND WEAK                                TO BE SIMILAR                 TO BE SIMILAR   STRONG        SIMILAR.
                                                                                                    SIMILAR         TO BE
                                                                                                                                        WITH TREND
WITH TREND                              OR DECREASE                   OR              WITH TREND                    SIMILAR.
                                                                                                                                        TO BE
TO BE                                                                 DECREASE.       TO BE
                                                                                                                                        SIMILAR.
SIMILAR.                                                                              SIMILAR.

The interest of the market revealed for France and the Eastern Europe countries during the 4th Quarter 2008 varied from weak to similar and its trend for
                                                                                             h

the 1 st Quarter 2009 is to be similar.



The interest of the market revealed by Russia during the 4th Quarter 2008 varied between the weak and the strong and its trend for the 1st Quarter 2009 is
to be similar.


                                            OTHER COUNTRIES AND REGIONS ARE BECOMING INTERESTED IN AQUISITION OF PROPERTIES IN
                                            PORTUGAL:



                                            SAUDIT ARABIA , POLAND, CENTRAL AFRICA, TURKEY,
      II L M
         LM
                                            VENEZUELA, AUSTRALIA, BRAZIL, GUATEMALA.
   INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS


                                                                                                                                                  13
                                                                                                                                                   13
PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE


                10 10 10
                QUESTIONS           DEVELOPERS   AGENTS
                                                          ILM ■ THR
              QUARTERLY                    MONITOR




        5.2 - MARKET INTEREST IN THE 4th QUARTER 2008, PER COUNTRY OF ORIGIN: HOLIDAY RENTALS




                                                                                                                                            BENELUX
PORTUGAL                                ENGLAND                       IRELAND         SPAIN        SCANDINAVIA       GERMANY

                                                                                                                                            SIMILAR OR
INTEREST                                SIMILAR                       SIMILAR         WEAK         SIMILAR           SIMILAR
                                                                                                                                            WEAK
BETWEEN                                 INTEREST OR                   INTEREST        INTEREST     INTEREST WITH     INTEREST
                                                                                                                                            INTEREST
SIMILAR AND                             WEAK WITH                     WITH TREND      WITH TREND   TREND TO BE       WITH TREND
                                                                                                                                            WITH TREND
STRONG WITH                             TREND TO                      TO BE SIMILAR   TO BE        SIMILAR           TO INCREASE
                                                                                                                                            TO BE
TREND TO BE                             DECREASE OR                   OR INCREASE     SIMILAR                        .
                                                                                                                                            SIMILAR.
SIMILAR OR                              BE SIMILAR
DECREASE


The interest of the market shown for the Eastern Europe countries during the 4th Quarter 2008 varied between the similar and the weak and its trend for
the 1st Quarter 2009 is to decrease or to be similar.

The interest of the market shown for France during the 4th Quarter 2008 was weak and its trend for the 1st Quarter 2009 is to be similar.

The interest of the market shown for Russia during the 4th Quarter 2008 was weak and its trend for the 1st Quarter 2009 is to be similar or to increase.




      II L M
         LM
   INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS
                                                                                                                                                      14
PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE


                10 10 10
                QUESTIONS           DEVELOPERS   AGENTS
                                                          ILM ■ THR
              QUARTERLY                    MONITOR




         6 - RANKING OF THE BUYING DECISION FACTORS FOR THE 4th QUARTER 2008


                                                                                            Developers and Real
                                                                                                                                RANKING
                                                             Developers  Real Estate Agents    Estate Agents
    Factors                                               Average Ranking Average Ranking Average     Ranking
    Product price
            p                                                5       7       7         2      6          3
                                                                                                                  1.
                                                                                                                  1 GENERAL MARKET CONFIDENCE
    General market confidence                                                                            1
                                                             7       1       9         1      8
    Currency exchange                                        7       2       7         3      7          2
                                                                                                                  2. CURRENCY EXCHANGE
    Primary value source market                                6      5       5        6       5         7
    Range of residential products on                                                                              3. PRODUCT PRICE
    offer                                                      7      2       4        9       5         6
    Ease of travel to the nearest                                                                                 4. CLIMATE
    international airport
    it     ti   li      t                                      5      9       5        8       5         8
    Ease of travel to the site(s) location                     4      10      5        6       5         9        5. OTHER(S)
    Climate                                                    6      5       6        4       6         4
                                                                                                                  6. RANGE OF RESIDENTIAL PRODUCTS
    Security                                                   5      8       4        9       5         9
    Other(s)                                                   6      4       5        5       6         5           ON OFFER
                                                                                                                  7.
                                                                                                                  7 PRIMARY VALUE SOURCE MARKET
                                                                                                                  8. EASE OF TRAVEL TO THE NEAREST
                                                                                                                     INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
         Other factors mentioned were:
                                                                                                                  9. SECURITY EASE OF TRAVEL TO THE
         - Availability of mortgages at competitive rates                                                            SITE(S) LOCATION
                                                                                                                         ()

         - Property location – i.e. distance from beach, golf, etc




      II L M
         LM
   INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS



                                                                                                                                               15
PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE


                10 10 10
                QUESTIONS           DEVELOPERS   AGENTS
                                                          ILM ■ THR
              QUARTERLY                    MONITOR




         7 - MARKETS THAT REPRESENTED A COMPETITIVE THREAT TO PORTUGAL IN THE 1st
              QUARTER 2009


                                       Traditional markets            Total   Average   Ranking
                                                                                                               RANKING
                      Spain                                            39       3,5
                                                                                35         1
                      France                                           34       2,8        2

                                                                                                  1. SPAIN
                             Emergent markets                         Total   Average   Ranking   2. FRANCE
                      Cyp us
                      Cyprus                                           22       2,2
                                                                                 ,         4
                                                                                                  3. TURKEY
                      Turkey                                           28       3,1        3
                      Greece                                           22       2,4        4
                                                                                                  4. CYPRUS AND GREECE
                      Bulgary                                          14       1,6        8
                                                                                                  5. USA AND CARIBBEAN
                      Malta                                            14       1,8        8
                                                                                                  6.
                                                                                                  6 DUBAI
                                                                                                  7. MOROCCO AND NORTH AFRICA
                               Other markets                          Total   Average   Ranking
                      Morocco and North Africa                         18       2,3        7
                                                                                                  8. BULGARY AND MALTA
                      USA and Caribbean                                21       2,9        5
                      PALOP's                                          11       1,4        9      9. PALOP´S
                      Dubai
                        bi                                             19       2,4        6




      II L M
         LM
   INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS



                                                                                                                            16
PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE


                10 10 10
                QUESTIONS           DEVELOPERS   AGENTS
                                                          ILM ■ THR
              QUARTERLY                    MONITOR




         8.1 - OVERALL LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE IN THE PORTUGUESE RESIDENTIAL TOURISM
             MARKET FOR THE 2nd QUARTER 2009 - SALES
                                                          Level of Confidence in the Portuguese 

                                                                                                                                                    SALES
                                                            Residential Tourism Market ‐ Sales
                                                                        2nd Quarter 2009

                                                                                                                                        LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
                                                                      33%      33%




                                                                                                                                                     66%
                                                             13%
                                                                                      13%
                                                                                                                                                  FROM WEAK
                                                                                               7%
                                                                                                                                                  AVERAGE TO
                                                                                                                                                   AVERAGE
                                                          Lower
                                                                            Average
                                                                                            Higher

                                        It is important to highlight that in the 2nd Quarter 2009, the Real Estate Agents have shown more confidence on the market that the
                                        Developers.

                                        “I think we will continue to see lower volumes of transactions in Q2 although it should show a slight improvement over Q1”

                                        “Good year ahead”

                                        “The clients are there. We need to make them special and create confidence in the products”.

                                        “We have already seen a very strong demand from the local market for our products and we are expecting a number of sales. Due to
                                        current economic crisis we do not expect a good financial year The Q3 and Q4 may look better but Q2 will be poor given feedback and
                                                         crisis,                                        year.                          better,
      II L M                            comments from clients. I think that it is very difficult to preview the next months. Unfortunately, we are depending on a global economy.”
         LM
   INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS


                                        “We are assisting to an increase on the demand of fractionals.“                                                                      17
PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE


                10 10 10
                QUESTIONS           DEVELOPERS   AGENTS
                                                           ILM ■ THR
              QUARTERLY                    MONITOR




          8.2 - OVERALL LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE IN THE PORTUGUESE RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET
              FOR THE 2nd QUARTER 2009 – HOLIDAY RENTALS
                                                                                                                                           HOLIDAY RENTALS
                                                             Level of Confidence in the Portuguese 
                                                                                                                                         LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
                                                          Residential Tourism Market ‐ Holiday Rentals
                                                                           2nd Quarter 2009
                                                                                         37,5%
                                                                       37,5%
                                                                                                                                                   37,5 %
                                                                                                                                               FROM AVERAGE
                                                               12,5%
                                                                                                                                             WEAK TO AVERAGE
                                                                               12,5%

                                                                                                                                             AND 37 5% AVERAGE
                                                                                                                                                 37,5%
                                                                                                  0,0%
                                                                                                                                                  STRONG
                                                            Lower
                                                                            Average
                                                                                                 Higher
                                        The holiday rentals is applicable only to half of the participant entities – 5 Developers and 3 Real Estate Agents.

                                        The Developers estimate a level of confidence higher than that anticipated by the Real Estate Agents.

                                        Qualitative comments:

                                        Developers:

                                        The market conditions may improve in the 2nd Quarter 2009.

                                        Real Estate Agents:
                                        “The rental business is driven by UK holiday clients therefore, considering economic crisis and the valuation of the euro in relation to the
                                                                         y         y                              g
                                        pound, we believe it will be a slow year.”
      II L M
         LM
   INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS



                                                                                                                                                                               18
PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE


                10 10 10
                QUESTIONS           DEVELOPERS   AGENTS
                                                          ILM ■ THR
              QUARTERLY                    MONITOR




         9 - MARKETING MEASURES THAT ENTITIES ARE CONSIDERING TO IMPLEMENT ON THE 1st
         QUARTER 2009

             “Increase our presence in new markets and keep investing in marketing and communication. We are increasing the investment in direct marketing
             (database)”
             “We are keeping our marketing budget for the Q2. We will focus on promotion of the website to target broader potential client base with a focus on
             European countries. Translation of website in other languages and promotion through agents in other countries. We are investing on local promotion as
             19% of clients are generated locally and develop promotions targeted to Developers”.
             “Continued promotion in top of the range magazines to focus on top end market”.
             “Training staff to ensure they are fully able to deal with the issues, concerns of buyers and vendors alike”.
             “Reinforcing the internet marketing hard sales training agents network and private shows to potential clients ”
              Reinforcing              marketing,           training,                                              clients.
             “Our Marketing costs have been reduced in Portugal but have been similar to the UK with advertising on Sunday Times, Telegraph and relevant web
             sites. We are opening new offices and participate in exhibitions.”
             “Our objective is to create loyalty with customer. Increase the focus on the luxury lifestyle buyers adapting our marketing to the demand. We are focusing
             more on events and less focus on printed material more into web marketing, increasing the quality of the information available on the web site.”
             “We are minimizing marketing expenses and sale operation costs. We are redefining sales & marketing strategy and re-evaluating product range and
             price payment terms conditions.. We will follow up and evaluate closely development of market conditions in Portugal, UK and Ireland.”
             “We are concentrating our Marketing efforts on the Portuguese market as we have seen an increase in demand from the local market. We are
             establishing partnerships with local agent to promote developments. We are investing in internet advertising in Portugal, outdoor advertising and install on
             site sales office
             “We are implementing marketing actions in Ireland and the UK will be more focused on personal contact with the client and networking to boost consumer
             confidence and gain trust through building a client relationship and bringing the clients to Portugal on inspection trips. We are establishing partnerships
             with the Russian market with local agents.“




      II L M
         LM
   INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS



                                                                                                                                                                  19
PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE


                10 10 10
                QUESTIONS           DEVELOPERS    AGENTS
                                                            ILM ■ THR
              QUARTERLY                    MONITOR




          10. FINAL CONCLUSIONS ILM ■ THR

                                                 There are no doubts that the world economic crisis affected the national real estate market and strongly hit the confidence, firstly of the Real
                                                 Estate Agents and followed by the Developers.
                                                 The entities consulted in the scope of the present analysis pointed out a recovery of the confidence on the 4th Quarter 2009, being
                                                 perceptible a significant increase on the following Quarter (April to June), mostly conducted by the Real Estate Agents as a result of the
                                                 direct contact they maintain with the demand.
                                                 Regarding the level of activity, if in the perspective of the Real Estate Agents there has been a decrease on the sales volume, in the
                                                 perspective of the Developers this has been similar and there has been identified a slight descendent on the prices, as a more visible
                                                 consequence of the economic crisis.
                                                 The analysis of the volume of sales per mix of supply enables to highlight that the more demanded typologies of apartments and
                                                 townhouses were 2 and 3 bedrooms and it is foreseen that this situation is going to be similar. In the case of villas, the situation is slightly
                                                 different,
                                                 different being predominant the interest of the typologies V3 and V4 which tends to increase Moreover it is important to point out that
                                                                                                                     V4,                  increase.
                                                 regarding the demand for villas, the real estate agents are more optimistic that the developers.
                                                 Generally we can conclude that the interest of the market is more sensible to the economic instability in the national regions where the
     THE 2ND                                     tourist real estate is more developed - Algarve and Oeste. According to the consulted entities, these regions registered a weak interest of
                                                 the demand with trend to maintain or increase in the Algarve and maintain or decrease in the Oeste.
O 2º TRIMESTRE
QUARTER 2009
                                                 In the regions of Lisboa and Porto the interest of the market tends to be remain strong.
                                                          g                                                                            g
MAY 2009 DEVEA
 DE PRESENT
                                                 Analyzing the demand by countries of origin, the demand of countries such as Portugal, Spain, Germany, Scandinavia and Benelux tend to
 APRESENTAR
     SLIGHT                                      maintain the interest on the national residential tourism market. Opposite to the demand of the markets in England and Ireland that present
                                                 a weak interest with trend to decrease, as consequence of the strong impacts that reached the economies of those countries. It is important
 UMA LIGEIRA
IMPROVEMENT
                                                 to emphasize that this difference will be more sensed in the national market in relation to the markets of England and Ireland, in face of the
   MELHORIA
      WHEN                                       strong dependence of Portugal to this two countries as great incoming markets of residential tourism.
COMPARANDO                                       It is curious to verify the growing interest of demand by emergent markets such as Saudi Arabia, Poland, Central Africa, Turkey, Venezuela,
  COMPARED
                                                 Australia, Brazil and Guatemala.
 WITH THE1º ST
   COM O 1
                                                 In the basis of changes on the demand of residential tourism may be, besides the economic constraints, factors related with the competitive
  TRIMESTRE
QUARTER 2009                                     supply of emergent countries such as Turkey, Cyprus or Greece, which are countries considered by the developers and real estate agents
                                                 consulted on this analysis as true competitive threats to Portugal.
                                                 In a period of market stability factors such as the climate the security occupy the first positions in a ranking of the buying decision factors
                                                                        stability,                   climate,
      II L M                                     of a tourist residential unit. However, on the period of analysis, those factors are drastically surpassed by factors such as the general
         LM                                      market confidence, currency exchange and product price.
   INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS



                                                                                                                                                                                          20
                                                                                                                                                                                               20
ILM, celebrating its 10th anniversary of consolidated development, was founded in 1999 by Andrew Coutts with the
                      objective to render a service of strategic consultancy in tourism, hospitality and leisure for the national market. In
                      these 10 years of experience, ILM has grown organically and has evolved to the point of currently occupying a leading
                      position in tourism consultancy. Oriented by the market and by innovation, ILM’s mission is to actively contribute to
                      the sustained development of the national hotel and tourism sectors, being the only independent consultancy
                      company specialized in the development and implementation of residential tourism projects.

                      Through ILM, several important structural projects were developed in Portugal, such as the Identification and
                      Business Planning of the 10 Strategic Tourism Products defined in the PENT ‐ National Strategic Plan for Tourism NSPT,
                                      g                 g                                                         g                        ,
                      and landmark projects for Portugal as a quality tourism destination, namely Praia Del Rey Marriott Resort, Hilton
                      Vilamoura, Conrad Quinta do Lago or Corte Velho by Six Senses.

                      The development of the PENT project, in partnership with THR, gave rise to the establishment of the official strategic
                      partnership with ILM THR Advisors in 2006 THR was founded in 1985 by Eulogio Bordas its current President
                                          ILM‐THR               2006.                                         Bordas,            President.
                      Starting its activity in Spain, THR renders its services all over the world, being referenced in EMEA as the major
                      company of its category and so being permanently sought by companies and governments of various countries as
                      well as by international institutions such as the European Union (EU) and the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO).




                                          Praça Duque de Saldanha, Edifício Atrium Saldanha 10º J • 1050-094 Lisboa • Portugal
   II L M
      LM                                   Tel.: (+351) 213 145 481 • Fax: (+351) 213 145 482 • e-mail: acastro@ilm-portugal.com
INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS


                                                                                                                                               21
                                                                          www.ilm-portugal.com
II L M
                                                            LM
                                                      INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS




                     Praça Duque de Saldanha, Edifício Atrium Saldanha 10º J • 1050-094 Lisboa • Portugal

                        Tel.: (+351) 213 145 481 • Fax: (+351) 213 145 482 • e-mail: acastro@ilm-portugal.com

                                                     www.ilm-portugal.com




   II L M
      LM
INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS


                                                                                                                22

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Results Residential Tourism Survey 10 10 10 Feb 2009

  • 1. PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE 10 10 10 QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS ILM ■ THR QUARTERLY MONITOR QUARTER BAROMETER ANALYSIS OF THE PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET CONFIDENCE 4th QUARTER 2008 vs 1st QUARTER 2009 II L M LM INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS II L M LM INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS 1 Lisbon, 26 February 2009
  • 2. TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction 3 1 - Residential Tourism Market Confidence 4 2.1 - Level of business activity - Sales 5 2.2 - Level of business activity – Holiday Rentals 6 3.1 Weight f S l 3 1 - W i ht of Sales per t typology – A t l Apartments,Townhouses and Vill tT h d Villas 7 3.2 - Weight of Holiday Rentals per tipology – Apartaments and Villas 10 4 - Market Interest in the regions of Oeste, Lisboa , Algarve and Porto in the 4th Quarter 2008 12 5.1 - Market Interest in the 4th Quarter 2008, per Country of Origin: Sales 13 5.2 - Market Interest in the 4th Quarter 2008, per Country of Origin: Holiday Rentals 14 6 - Ranking of the buying decision factors for the 4th Quarter 2008 15 7 - Markets that represented a competitive threat to Portugal in the 1st Quarter 2009 16 8.1 - Overall level of confidence in the Portuguese residential tourism market for the 2nd Quarter 2009 – Sales 17 8.2 8 2 - Overall level of confidence in the Portuguese residential tourism market for the 2nd Quarter 2009 – Holiday Rentals 18 9 - Marketing measures that entities are considering to implement on the 1st Quarter 2009 19 10 – Final conclusions ILM ■ THR 20 II L M LM INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS
  • 3. PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE 10 10 10 QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS ILM ■ THR QUARTERLY MONITOR INTRODUCTION Developed by ILM ■ THR, the 10-10-10 Residential Tourism Survey consists of a quarterly barometer analysis, the objective of which is to evaluate the market’s level of confidence, performance and trends of the tourist real estate sector in Portugal. This analysis is one of the three initiatives launched by ILM ■ THR during 2008, under the umbrella brand of “Portugal Residential Tourism Market Intelligence”, which have a common objective – to provide market information, and collecting detailed and updated information on the Residential Tourism. For the development of the present analysis, a questionnaire comprising10 questions was submitted to the following Developers and Real Estate Agents - leaders in the national market: 8 Developers: Norte Golfe Promoções Turísticas e Imobiliárias, S.A. - Porto Bom Sucesso - Óbidos Empreendimentos Turísticos, S.A. - Óbidos ORIZON CAMPOREAL S.A. - Óbidos MSF - TUR.IM, SGPS, S.A. - Lisboa Newlyn Portugal - Algarve Pestana Imobiliária - Algarve Vale do Lobo, Resort Turístico de Luxo, S. A. - Algarve g Grupo Oceânico – Oeste e Algarve 8 Real Estate Agents: Abacus Savills - Lisboa Atlantic Estates - Algarve, Lisboa e Costa de Prata Garvetur - Sociedade de Mediação Imobiliária S.A. - Algarve ç g IRG International Reality Group - Lisboa John D Griffiths - Algarve Prunty's Overseas Properties S.A. - Lisboa Sadlers Mediação Imobiliária - Knight Frank - Algarve Winkworth - Algarve II L M LM INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS 3
  • 4. PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE 10 10 10 QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS ILM ■ THR QUARTERLY MONITOR 1 - RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET CONFIDENCE CONFIDENCE 1st Quarter 2009 vs 4th Quarter 2008 Residential Tourism Market Confidence 1st Quarter 2009 vs 4th Quarter 2008 80% 40% LOW TO AVERAGE 27% 13% 13% 7% Low Average Average Average Low High high Comparing the 1st quarter 2009 with 4th quarter 2008, 13% of the participants in the analysis have classified the market confidence as low, 40% average low and 27% average. It is important to highlight that in the perspective of the Developers, the market confidence appears slightly higher when compared with that of the Real Estate Agents. Qualitative comments: Developers: “Potential clients are insecure and not ready for investment decisions”. “Media reports and continued bank problems have totally scared people off in investing -- even for those who have the money”. II L M LM Real Estate Agents: “Currently we do not see any difference in perceptions in Q1 when compared with Q4 2008 which was quite depressed”. INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS 4 “We hope that by the Q4 2009 the confidence will return to the market”. “We predict a market bottom around March - April at which time it will regain strength”.
  • 5. PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE 10 10 10 QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS ILM ■ THR QUARTERLY MONITOR 2.1 - LEVEL OF BUSINESS ACTIVITY - SALES SALES 3rd Quarter 2008 vs 4th Quarter 2008 Level of Business Activity - Sales 3rd Quarter 2008 vs 4th Quarter 2008 69% 69% SIMILAR 31% 0% Lower Similar Higher In the opinion of the Developers the level of Business Activity on Sales has been similar in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2008 whereas the Developers, Real Estate Agents consider that the level has been lower for the same period. Considering the analysis per Region, the participating entities consider that the level of business activity diminished in the Algarve, and maintained levels in the areas of Lisbon, Porto and Oeste. Developers: “Investorsquot; are looking for bargain buys, but we are not prepared to discount to the levels they are looking for.”. Real Estate Agents: “Strong deterioration in market conditions from October to end December”. “The quantity does not express the drop in turnover. We felt a big drop in sales price from Q3 to Q4 2008”. “We have sold the same number of properties as in Q3 2008 but at lower prices”. We prices II L M LM INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS 5
  • 6. PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE 10 10 10 QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS ILM ■ THR QUARTERLY MONITOR 2.2 - LEVEL OF BUSINESS ACTIVITY – HOLIDAY RENTALS 3rd Quarter 2008 vs 4th Quarter 2008 HOLIDAY RENTALS Level of Business Activity – Holiday Rentals 3rd Quarter 2008 vs 4th Quarter 2008 50% LOWER 50% 50% 50% SIMILAR 0% Lower Similar Higher The holiday rentals is only applicable to 8 of the survey participants and 50% of them consider that the level of business activity was similar and the remainder that the it was similar. In the opinion of the Developers, the level of business activity for holiday rentals was similar, whereas the Real Estate Agents consider that there are indications of a decline in this area. Analysing the data by Region enables us o conclude that in the Algarve and in Lisbon the level of business activity decreased. “The Q3 is the high season and the Q4 is low season”. “Our rentals business in predominantly a Q3 business. We do not expect to see strong rentals in Q4”. II L M “The clients generally book, concentrate on summer holiday rental and first 2 months”. LM INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS 6
  • 7. PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE 10 10 10 QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS ILM ■ THR QUARTERLY MONITOR 3.1 – WEIGHT OF SALES PER TYPOLOGY - APARTAMENTS Sales activity in the 4th Quarter 2008 y The apartment supply is lower for typologies T0 and T4. APARTMENTS A significant part of the apartment sales was of typology T2 with 33%, T0 T1 T2 T3 T4 followed by the T3 which represented 18% of the business activity. Developers 15.3% 15.1% 33.0% 18.6% 5.4% Comparing the opinions of Developers with the Real Estate Agents the distribution of the business activity is similar, except for the T0 Real Estate typology. This may be justified by different sales and marketing 5.5% 11,5% 38.1% 27.4% 2.3% Agents approaches. Trend of sales in the 1st Quarter 2009 - Apartments Trend of sales in the 1st Quarter 2009 - Apartments According to the participants, the trend of the sales activity will be similar. Similar Decrease Increase I Not Applicable T0 T1 T2 T3 T4 II L M LM INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS 7
  • 8. PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE 10 10 10 QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS ILM ■ THR QUARTERLY MONITOR 3.1 - WEIGHT OF SALES PER TYPOLOGY - TOWNHOUSES Sales activity in the 4th Quarter 2008 y TOWNHOUSES The behaviour is very similar in the opinion of all the participants. TH2 TH3 TH4 We see that the business generated with Townhouses (TH) of 2 bedrooms is significant because, despite the average prices being 21.3% 21 3% 24.5% 24 5% 14.0% 14 0% Total Ttl lower than TH3, the generated volume is very similar between them. Developers 22.1% 26.3% 11.7% Real Estate Agents 20.0% 21.3% 17.5% Trend of sales in the 1st Quarter 2009 - Townhouses Trend of the Townhouses sales in the 1st “There is less demand for Townhouses when compared with previous years”. The trend of the activity level for the Townhouses is likely to be Quarter 2009 similar or to decrease. Especially in the case of Townhouses of 4 bedrooms it is more certain that there will be even less demand for this product. The opinions of the Real Estate Agents and the Developers coincides. Similar Decrease Increase Not Applicable TH2 TH3 TH4 II L M LM INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS 8
  • 9. PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE 10 10 10 QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS ILM ■ THR QUARTERLY MONITOR 3.1 - WEIGHT OF SALES PER TYPOLOGY - VILLAS Sales activity in the 4th Quarter 2008 y VILLAS Once again the opinions are similar among all the participants. V2 V3 V4 V5 The typology V2 is of minimal importance. The figures for V3 and V4 Total 10,5% 33.0% 31.9% 11.3% are particularly significant. Developers 7.0% 31.8% 34.4% 11.3% Real Estate Agents 0.0% 23.3% 47.5% 16.0% Trend of sales in the 1stt Quarter 2009 - Villas Trend of sales in the 1st Quarter 2009 A higher volume of villa sales is foreseen for a price positioning at the - Villas high end of the market. The trend of villas sales in the near future is positive and there is a perception of improvement for V3 and V4. Moreover, we can observe that the Real Estate Agents are more positive than the Developers for this product in the 1st quarter 2009. Similar Decrease Increase Not Applicable II L M LM V2 V3 V4 V5 INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS 9
  • 10. PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE 10 10 10 QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS ILM ■ THR QUARTERLY MONITOR 3.2 - WEIGHT OF HOLIDAY RENTALS PER TYPOLOGY- APARTMENTS Holiday Rentals activity in the 4th Quarter 2008 y y APARTMENTS There is not enough information to evaluate the holiday rentals activity for the Real Estate Agents. T0 T1 T2 T3 T4 Total We can identify that the major part of the demand, at least in this y jp , 10.0% 35.0% 40.7% 11.7% 10% season, is positioned in apartments T1 and T2. This is different to Developers sales, which are more active for the T2 and T3. 10.0% 35.0% 45.0% 11.7% 10% Real Estate “The demand of T2 has increased for the golf market” N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. Agents “The situation is similar with the transition of 2007 to 2008” Trend of holiday rentals in the 1st Quarter 2009 - Apartments Trend of holiday rentals in the 1st Quarter 2009 - Apartments The trend is clearly to increase the business activity of holiday rentals rentals, which is normal considering that the 1st Quarter of the year usually has more activity. Similar The current business forecast does not necessarily mean that the movement will be reflected in the occupancy rates for the 1st Quarter. Decrease On the contrary we know that the bookings made by the British contrary, Increase market are for the summer season and are traditionally prepared at this time of the year. Not Applicable T0 T1 T2 T3 T4 II L M LM INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS 10
  • 11. PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE 10 10 10 QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS ILM ■ THR QUARTERLY MONITOR 3.2 - WEIGHT OF HOLIDAY RENTALS PER TYPOLOGY - VILLAS Holiday Rentals activity In the 4th Quarter 2008 y y VILLAS It is interesting to verify that villa holiday rental activity has a higher impact on the Real Estates Agents’ income than that of the Algarve V2 V3 V4 Developers. 3.75 3 75 % 28.75 28 75 % 62.5 62 5 % Total The possible reasons for this situation are: 7.5 % 11.7 % 10 % Developers • Higher loyalty rate of the clients – there is not enough historical data in the case of the recent resorts. Real Estate Agents 32.5% 62.5% Na • More consolidated distribution channels. • Larger diversity of product supply. Trend of holiday rentals in the 1st Quarter 2009 - Villas Trend of holiday rentals in the 1st Quarter 2009 - Villas According to the participants, the trend for the level of activity is to be maintained. Similar Decrease Increase I Not Applicable T0 T1 T2 T3 T4 II L M LM INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS 11
  • 12. PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE 10 10 10 QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS ILM ■ THR QUARTERLY MONITOR 4 - MARKET INTEREST IN THE REGIONS OF OESTE, LISBOA , ALGARVE AND PORTO IN THE 4th Quarter 2008 th Quarter 2008 and trend for the 1st Quarter 2009 4 WEAK INTEREST WITH TREND TO BE SIMILAR OR EVEN TO DECREASE. DECREASE LISBOA STRONG INTEREST WITH TREND TO BE SIMILAR. WEAK INTEREST WITH TREND TO BE SIMILAR OR EVEN INCREASE. PORTO STRONG INTEREST WITH TREND TO INCREASE. II L M LM INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS 12
  • 13. PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE 10 10 10 QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS ILM ■ THR QUARTERLY MONITOR 5.1 – MARKET INTEREST IN THE 4th QUARTER 2008, PER COUNTRY OF ORIGIN: SALES BENELUX PORTUGAL ENGLAND IRELAND SPAIN SCANDINAVIA GERMANY INTEREST INTEREST WEAK WEAK INTEREST SIMILAR SIMILAR BETWEEN BETWEEN INTEREST INTEREST BETWEEN INTEREST WITH INTEREST SIMILAR SIMILAR WITH TREND WITH TREND SIMILAR AND TREND TO BE WITH TREND AND WEAK AND WEAK TO BE SIMILAR TO BE SIMILAR STRONG SIMILAR. SIMILAR TO BE WITH TREND WITH TREND OR DECREASE OR WITH TREND SIMILAR. TO BE TO BE DECREASE. TO BE SIMILAR. SIMILAR. SIMILAR. The interest of the market revealed for France and the Eastern Europe countries during the 4th Quarter 2008 varied from weak to similar and its trend for h the 1 st Quarter 2009 is to be similar. The interest of the market revealed by Russia during the 4th Quarter 2008 varied between the weak and the strong and its trend for the 1st Quarter 2009 is to be similar. OTHER COUNTRIES AND REGIONS ARE BECOMING INTERESTED IN AQUISITION OF PROPERTIES IN PORTUGAL: SAUDIT ARABIA , POLAND, CENTRAL AFRICA, TURKEY, II L M LM VENEZUELA, AUSTRALIA, BRAZIL, GUATEMALA. INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS 13 13
  • 14. PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE 10 10 10 QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS ILM ■ THR QUARTERLY MONITOR 5.2 - MARKET INTEREST IN THE 4th QUARTER 2008, PER COUNTRY OF ORIGIN: HOLIDAY RENTALS BENELUX PORTUGAL ENGLAND IRELAND SPAIN SCANDINAVIA GERMANY SIMILAR OR INTEREST SIMILAR SIMILAR WEAK SIMILAR SIMILAR WEAK BETWEEN INTEREST OR INTEREST INTEREST INTEREST WITH INTEREST INTEREST SIMILAR AND WEAK WITH WITH TREND WITH TREND TREND TO BE WITH TREND WITH TREND STRONG WITH TREND TO TO BE SIMILAR TO BE SIMILAR TO INCREASE TO BE TREND TO BE DECREASE OR OR INCREASE SIMILAR . SIMILAR. SIMILAR OR BE SIMILAR DECREASE The interest of the market shown for the Eastern Europe countries during the 4th Quarter 2008 varied between the similar and the weak and its trend for the 1st Quarter 2009 is to decrease or to be similar. The interest of the market shown for France during the 4th Quarter 2008 was weak and its trend for the 1st Quarter 2009 is to be similar. The interest of the market shown for Russia during the 4th Quarter 2008 was weak and its trend for the 1st Quarter 2009 is to be similar or to increase. II L M LM INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS 14
  • 15. PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE 10 10 10 QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS ILM ■ THR QUARTERLY MONITOR 6 - RANKING OF THE BUYING DECISION FACTORS FOR THE 4th QUARTER 2008 Developers and Real RANKING Developers Real Estate Agents Estate Agents Factors Average Ranking Average Ranking Average Ranking Product price p 5 7 7 2 6 3 1. 1 GENERAL MARKET CONFIDENCE General market confidence 1 7 1 9 1 8 Currency exchange 7 2 7 3 7 2 2. CURRENCY EXCHANGE Primary value source market 6 5 5 6 5 7 Range of residential products on 3. PRODUCT PRICE offer 7 2 4 9 5 6 Ease of travel to the nearest 4. CLIMATE international airport it ti li t 5 9 5 8 5 8 Ease of travel to the site(s) location 4 10 5 6 5 9 5. OTHER(S) Climate 6 5 6 4 6 4 6. RANGE OF RESIDENTIAL PRODUCTS Security 5 8 4 9 5 9 Other(s) 6 4 5 5 6 5 ON OFFER 7. 7 PRIMARY VALUE SOURCE MARKET 8. EASE OF TRAVEL TO THE NEAREST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT Other factors mentioned were: 9. SECURITY EASE OF TRAVEL TO THE - Availability of mortgages at competitive rates SITE(S) LOCATION () - Property location – i.e. distance from beach, golf, etc II L M LM INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS 15
  • 16. PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE 10 10 10 QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS ILM ■ THR QUARTERLY MONITOR 7 - MARKETS THAT REPRESENTED A COMPETITIVE THREAT TO PORTUGAL IN THE 1st QUARTER 2009 Traditional markets Total Average Ranking RANKING Spain 39 3,5 35 1 France 34 2,8 2 1. SPAIN Emergent markets Total Average Ranking 2. FRANCE Cyp us Cyprus 22 2,2 , 4 3. TURKEY Turkey 28 3,1 3 Greece 22 2,4 4 4. CYPRUS AND GREECE Bulgary 14 1,6 8 5. USA AND CARIBBEAN Malta 14 1,8 8 6. 6 DUBAI 7. MOROCCO AND NORTH AFRICA Other markets Total Average Ranking Morocco and North Africa 18 2,3 7 8. BULGARY AND MALTA USA and Caribbean 21 2,9 5 PALOP's 11 1,4 9 9. PALOP´S Dubai bi 19 2,4 6 II L M LM INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS 16
  • 17. PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE 10 10 10 QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS ILM ■ THR QUARTERLY MONITOR 8.1 - OVERALL LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE IN THE PORTUGUESE RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET FOR THE 2nd QUARTER 2009 - SALES Level of Confidence in the Portuguese  SALES Residential Tourism Market ‐ Sales 2nd Quarter 2009 LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE 33% 33% 66% 13% 13% FROM WEAK 7% AVERAGE TO AVERAGE Lower Average Higher It is important to highlight that in the 2nd Quarter 2009, the Real Estate Agents have shown more confidence on the market that the Developers. “I think we will continue to see lower volumes of transactions in Q2 although it should show a slight improvement over Q1” “Good year ahead” “The clients are there. We need to make them special and create confidence in the products”. “We have already seen a very strong demand from the local market for our products and we are expecting a number of sales. Due to current economic crisis we do not expect a good financial year The Q3 and Q4 may look better but Q2 will be poor given feedback and crisis, year. better, II L M comments from clients. I think that it is very difficult to preview the next months. Unfortunately, we are depending on a global economy.” LM INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS “We are assisting to an increase on the demand of fractionals.“ 17
  • 18. PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE 10 10 10 QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS ILM ■ THR QUARTERLY MONITOR 8.2 - OVERALL LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE IN THE PORTUGUESE RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET FOR THE 2nd QUARTER 2009 – HOLIDAY RENTALS HOLIDAY RENTALS Level of Confidence in the Portuguese  LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE Residential Tourism Market ‐ Holiday Rentals 2nd Quarter 2009 37,5% 37,5% 37,5 % FROM AVERAGE 12,5% WEAK TO AVERAGE 12,5% AND 37 5% AVERAGE 37,5% 0,0% STRONG Lower Average Higher The holiday rentals is applicable only to half of the participant entities – 5 Developers and 3 Real Estate Agents. The Developers estimate a level of confidence higher than that anticipated by the Real Estate Agents. Qualitative comments: Developers: The market conditions may improve in the 2nd Quarter 2009. Real Estate Agents: “The rental business is driven by UK holiday clients therefore, considering economic crisis and the valuation of the euro in relation to the y y g pound, we believe it will be a slow year.” II L M LM INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS 18
  • 19. PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE 10 10 10 QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS ILM ■ THR QUARTERLY MONITOR 9 - MARKETING MEASURES THAT ENTITIES ARE CONSIDERING TO IMPLEMENT ON THE 1st QUARTER 2009 “Increase our presence in new markets and keep investing in marketing and communication. We are increasing the investment in direct marketing (database)” “We are keeping our marketing budget for the Q2. We will focus on promotion of the website to target broader potential client base with a focus on European countries. Translation of website in other languages and promotion through agents in other countries. We are investing on local promotion as 19% of clients are generated locally and develop promotions targeted to Developers”. “Continued promotion in top of the range magazines to focus on top end market”. “Training staff to ensure they are fully able to deal with the issues, concerns of buyers and vendors alike”. “Reinforcing the internet marketing hard sales training agents network and private shows to potential clients ” Reinforcing marketing, training, clients. “Our Marketing costs have been reduced in Portugal but have been similar to the UK with advertising on Sunday Times, Telegraph and relevant web sites. We are opening new offices and participate in exhibitions.” “Our objective is to create loyalty with customer. Increase the focus on the luxury lifestyle buyers adapting our marketing to the demand. We are focusing more on events and less focus on printed material more into web marketing, increasing the quality of the information available on the web site.” “We are minimizing marketing expenses and sale operation costs. We are redefining sales & marketing strategy and re-evaluating product range and price payment terms conditions.. We will follow up and evaluate closely development of market conditions in Portugal, UK and Ireland.” “We are concentrating our Marketing efforts on the Portuguese market as we have seen an increase in demand from the local market. We are establishing partnerships with local agent to promote developments. We are investing in internet advertising in Portugal, outdoor advertising and install on site sales office “We are implementing marketing actions in Ireland and the UK will be more focused on personal contact with the client and networking to boost consumer confidence and gain trust through building a client relationship and bringing the clients to Portugal on inspection trips. We are establishing partnerships with the Russian market with local agents.“ II L M LM INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS 19
  • 20. PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE 10 10 10 QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS ILM ■ THR QUARTERLY MONITOR 10. FINAL CONCLUSIONS ILM ■ THR There are no doubts that the world economic crisis affected the national real estate market and strongly hit the confidence, firstly of the Real Estate Agents and followed by the Developers. The entities consulted in the scope of the present analysis pointed out a recovery of the confidence on the 4th Quarter 2009, being perceptible a significant increase on the following Quarter (April to June), mostly conducted by the Real Estate Agents as a result of the direct contact they maintain with the demand. Regarding the level of activity, if in the perspective of the Real Estate Agents there has been a decrease on the sales volume, in the perspective of the Developers this has been similar and there has been identified a slight descendent on the prices, as a more visible consequence of the economic crisis. The analysis of the volume of sales per mix of supply enables to highlight that the more demanded typologies of apartments and townhouses were 2 and 3 bedrooms and it is foreseen that this situation is going to be similar. In the case of villas, the situation is slightly different, different being predominant the interest of the typologies V3 and V4 which tends to increase Moreover it is important to point out that V4, increase. regarding the demand for villas, the real estate agents are more optimistic that the developers. Generally we can conclude that the interest of the market is more sensible to the economic instability in the national regions where the THE 2ND tourist real estate is more developed - Algarve and Oeste. According to the consulted entities, these regions registered a weak interest of the demand with trend to maintain or increase in the Algarve and maintain or decrease in the Oeste. O 2º TRIMESTRE QUARTER 2009 In the regions of Lisboa and Porto the interest of the market tends to be remain strong. g g MAY 2009 DEVEA DE PRESENT Analyzing the demand by countries of origin, the demand of countries such as Portugal, Spain, Germany, Scandinavia and Benelux tend to APRESENTAR SLIGHT maintain the interest on the national residential tourism market. Opposite to the demand of the markets in England and Ireland that present a weak interest with trend to decrease, as consequence of the strong impacts that reached the economies of those countries. It is important UMA LIGEIRA IMPROVEMENT to emphasize that this difference will be more sensed in the national market in relation to the markets of England and Ireland, in face of the MELHORIA WHEN strong dependence of Portugal to this two countries as great incoming markets of residential tourism. COMPARANDO It is curious to verify the growing interest of demand by emergent markets such as Saudi Arabia, Poland, Central Africa, Turkey, Venezuela, COMPARED Australia, Brazil and Guatemala. WITH THE1º ST COM O 1 In the basis of changes on the demand of residential tourism may be, besides the economic constraints, factors related with the competitive TRIMESTRE QUARTER 2009 supply of emergent countries such as Turkey, Cyprus or Greece, which are countries considered by the developers and real estate agents consulted on this analysis as true competitive threats to Portugal. In a period of market stability factors such as the climate the security occupy the first positions in a ranking of the buying decision factors stability, climate, II L M of a tourist residential unit. However, on the period of analysis, those factors are drastically surpassed by factors such as the general LM market confidence, currency exchange and product price. INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS 20 20
  • 21. ILM, celebrating its 10th anniversary of consolidated development, was founded in 1999 by Andrew Coutts with the objective to render a service of strategic consultancy in tourism, hospitality and leisure for the national market. In these 10 years of experience, ILM has grown organically and has evolved to the point of currently occupying a leading position in tourism consultancy. Oriented by the market and by innovation, ILM’s mission is to actively contribute to the sustained development of the national hotel and tourism sectors, being the only independent consultancy company specialized in the development and implementation of residential tourism projects. Through ILM, several important structural projects were developed in Portugal, such as the Identification and Business Planning of the 10 Strategic Tourism Products defined in the PENT ‐ National Strategic Plan for Tourism NSPT, g g g , and landmark projects for Portugal as a quality tourism destination, namely Praia Del Rey Marriott Resort, Hilton Vilamoura, Conrad Quinta do Lago or Corte Velho by Six Senses. The development of the PENT project, in partnership with THR, gave rise to the establishment of the official strategic partnership with ILM THR Advisors in 2006 THR was founded in 1985 by Eulogio Bordas its current President ILM‐THR 2006. Bordas, President. Starting its activity in Spain, THR renders its services all over the world, being referenced in EMEA as the major company of its category and so being permanently sought by companies and governments of various countries as well as by international institutions such as the European Union (EU) and the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). Praça Duque de Saldanha, Edifício Atrium Saldanha 10º J • 1050-094 Lisboa • Portugal II L M LM Tel.: (+351) 213 145 481 • Fax: (+351) 213 145 482 • e-mail: acastro@ilm-portugal.com INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS 21 www.ilm-portugal.com
  • 22. II L M LM INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS Praça Duque de Saldanha, Edifício Atrium Saldanha 10º J • 1050-094 Lisboa • Portugal Tel.: (+351) 213 145 481 • Fax: (+351) 213 145 482 • e-mail: acastro@ilm-portugal.com www.ilm-portugal.com II L M LM INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS 22