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COASTAL GEOLOGIC HAZARDS AND SEA-LEVEL RISE: CLIMATE CHANGE IN RHODE ISLAND Shoreline Change SAMP Stakeholders Meeting 4 April 2013 Jon C. Boothroyd1,2and Bryan A. Oakley3 (1) Rhode Island Geological Survey(2) Department of Geosciences, University of Rhode Island, Kingston RI 02881 (3) Environmental Earth Science Department, Eastern Connecticut State University, Willimantic, CT 06226

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Summary for Rhode Island:• Glacial Geology, Past and Present, the Underlying Key to Understanding Processes and Products• Storms the Most Important Driver in Coastal Change Sea-Level Rise a Secondary Effect• Shoreface Sediment Transport Not Well Understood at Present• Future Major Storms Combined With Sea-Level Rise a Very Large Problem• Accelerated Sea-Level Rise Resulting in Inundation also a Very Large Potential Problem• RICRMC Planning for a 3-5 foot Rise by 2100 and a 1.5 foot Rise by 2050

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S New England, E New York, Continental Shelf at LGM ~ 26,000 yBP You are here RI Map Generated By: BA Oakley and JC Boothroyd

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Eustatic Sea-Level Rise + Isostatic Rebound Isostatic Rebound at LaurentideBlock Island Ice Sheet? Laurentide 2m.100yr-1 Ice Sheet? RI Relative 2m.100yr-1 Sea Level Antarctic Ice Sheet? Eustatic 2-5m.100yr-1 Sea Level ExplanationOakley and Boothroyd, July 2012

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Geomorphology of Southeastern New England

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Narragansett Pier, RI Seawall – Tropical Storm Irene 2011Storms are the Driver Anonymous via N Vinhateiro, 28 aug 2011

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Frontal Erosion - Browning Cottages BA Oakley

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Superstorm Sandy - Browning Cottages 30 Oct 2012 http://fema.maps.arcgis.com/home/webmap/viewer.html?webmap=

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Superstorm Sandy - Browning Cottages 31 Oct 2012

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Frontal Erosion 1939-2012 -Browning Cottages, Moonstone Beach, RI House 2012moved to Upland 1951

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Shoreface – Inner Shelf Deposition Block Island Sound Offshore Movement of Sand

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Sandy Geologic Summary:• Sandy a Tropical – Extratropical Hybrid• Significant Wave Height 31 feet at Inner Shelf Buoy; Max Recorded Wave Height 47 feet• RI Received a Glancing Blow ; But Public Misconception by Some Believe it a 100 Year Event• Greatest Geologic Change and Infrastructure Damage Since Hurricane Carol, 1954• Washover Fan Deposition an Underestimated Problem• Shoreline Change Special Area Management Plan Needed to Better Prepare for Next Event – Already Started

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Superstorm Sandy – Tropical-Extratropical Hybrid 29 October 2012 Newport Tide Gauge SET UP PREDICTED http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ STORM SURGE data_menu.shtml?stn=8452660%20Newport,%20RI&type=Tide+Data

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How High Maximum Water Level was the 9.46 Feet, 2.88 meters Above MHHW Water ? Boothroyd and Carol Water Level Hehre 2008 Why above MHHW? Sandy Water Level Water 4.25 Feet, 1.30 meters Levels Above MHHWNewport, RI MHHW = 3.85 ft, 1.173 m Adapted from: www.ngs.noaa.gov/newsy s-cgi- MLLW = 0.0 ft, 0.0 m bin/ngs_opsd.prl?PID=LW 0493&EPOCH=1983-2001

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Frequency? Next Month or Next Year Superstorm Sandy Oct 2012Tropical StormIrene Aug 2011 Hurricane Bob Aug 1991 Adapted from NOAA; USACE 1988; Hehre 2007

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Measuring Shore Transects with:“2 Sticks and A String” or, the Modified Emery Method -22cm Eric Woodward 12 Oct 2012

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Cha-Ez Profile - Charlestown Barrier - Post Sandy Washover Fan Deposition S McCandless 30 Oct 2012

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PostSandy Pre-Sandy FEMA Dune Erosion Protocol

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Charlestown Beach – Blizzard 1978 – No Berm JC Boothroyd

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PostSandy Blizzard 1978

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Elevation Washover Fan Deposition Difference – USACE Post Sandy and 2011 USGS LiDAR DEMs Charlestown Barrier Foredune Removal Cha-Ez ProfileDRAFT FIGURE –PRELIMINARY RESULTS

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Pre-Sandy – Quonochontaug Barrier Conservation Land Washover Fan Deposition Bousquet and Son – Aerial Views

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Post-Sandy –Quonochontaug Barrier Conservation LandWashover Fan Deposition Bousquet and Son – Aerial Views

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A General Coastal Barrier Model for Rhode Island Very Transgressive

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Napatree Barrier – Westerly, RI Little Narragansett Bay Watch Hill Hehre and Boothroyd, 2007

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Napatree Barrier – Shoreline Change Map 2004 – Sound Side 1939 – Sound Side -71.6m 1939 – 2004 – Ocean Side Ocean Side Hehre and Boothroyd, 2007

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Washover Fan Deposition Misquamicut Barrier - Westerly Atlantic AveWashover Fan RI DOT 30 Oct 2012

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Charlestown Beach, RI – Hurricane Bob 1991Washover Fan Deposition Removal is a Bad Idea ……. Barriers Naturally Retreat Aug 1991 Landward and Upward JC Boothroyd

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Deposition and DamageMisquamicut Headland - Westerly Washover Fan Andrea MSQ - And Hotel Profile RI DOT 30 Oct 2012

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Misquamicut Andrea Hotel Shoreline “Protection” Structure – Late 1950s to Early 1960s 1957 FordProvidence Journal?

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Andrea Hotel - Misquamicut Headland - WesterlyThe Managed Retreat Begins Frieda Squires, Providence Journal 10 mar 2013

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The Fate of Washover Fans – Misquamicut State Beach And Hopefully, the Exercise of Scott RasmussenScientific Rationale for Replenishment 15 Feb 2013

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A Very Brief Look at Climate Change and theFuture Shore Zone of Rhode Island

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Co2now.org 394.37 www.350.orghttp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/co2_data_mlo.html

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HEIGHT NOW Adapted from: http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?stnid=8452660%20Newport,%20RI Boothroyd 2012

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6.1 ft 185 cm VR Max4.5 ft VR A1F1 137 cm VR B1 100 cm Height above NOW1.4 ft 41 2050

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Ninigret – Green Hill Lagoons2003 – 2004 Orthophoto Today

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Ninigret – Green Hill Lagoons 2100 Inundation – 5 ft200 ft Barrier Migration Projected

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Ninigret – Green Hill Lagoons 2100 Inundation – 5 ft+ 1938 Hurricane Surge Event Projected

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South Kingstown, RI – Town Beach An Eroding Glacial Bluff Shore BA Oakley

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South Kingstown, RI – Town Beach An Eroding Glacial Bluff Shore Boardwalk Pilings RI DOT 30 Oct 2012

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Headland Erosion – Glacial Stratified Bluff 28m

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Matunuck Headland, S Kingstown Shoreline Change 1951 - 2012Projected Change 2012 - 2050 2050 2012 1951

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End of Presentation