1. An Introduction to “Verge”
A general practice framework for
futures work
Wolfson College, Oxford, UK
10/4/2013
Sponsored by the Association of Professional Futurists

2. Vision Foresight Strategy LLC
Chief executive officer
www.kikilo.biz
Institute for Political Futures
President
To support intelligent and critical discourse
on the futures of governance, citizenship,
and democracy.
To help others make better sense of the
world around them so they can create the
most desirable futures possible.
kaipo@kikilo.biz
@kikilo, @thethirdera
Richard A. K. Lum, PhD

3. AN INTRODUCTION TO VERGE
Six Domains of Human Experience

4. What is Verge?
Originally intended as an alternative taxonomy for environmental
scanning, Verge has evolved through use into a general practice
framework employed by foresight professionals at virtually every stage of
futures research.
http://anticipatingchange.blogspot.com/2013/03/verge‐general‐practice‐framework‐for.html
It is a way to frame and explore changes in the world.

5. Stepping Outside the STEEP Box
Social
Technological
Economic
Environmental
Political

6. Verge1 Domains
Since its creation the Verge
framework has been used with a
variety of organizations, such as:
• Nissan Motor Company
• PepsiCo
• Ford Motor Company
• MTV
• Eurostar
• Singapore Civil Service College
Define: The concepts, ideas, and
paradigms we use to define ourselves
and the world around us
Relate: The social structures and
relationships which define people and
organizations
Connect: The technologies that connect
people, places, and things
Create: The processes and technology
through which we produce goods and
services
Consume: The ways in which we acquire
and use the goods and services that we
create.
Destroy: The ways in which value is
destroyed and the reasons for doing so
1 Futurists in the US know this framework as “Verge”, while practitioners in the UK know it as the “ethnographic futures
framework.”

7. Define speaks to the concepts, ideas, and paradigms we use to define ourselves
and the world around us.
Define
Examples of Changes Found within Define
• The shift from a Newtonian scientific worldview to one
that sees Chaos, Complexity, and Quantum phenomena
• Active, interventionist government policies gaining favor
over laissez faire economic theories
• People expanding their definition of “natural” to include
human‐built structures
Things like:
• Worldview
• Paradigms
• Philosophy
• Archetypes
• Social values and attitudes
• Public policy
• Religion

8. Relate deals with the social structures and relationships which define people and
organizations.
Relate
Examples of Changes Found within Relate
• Networked enterprises eschewing traditional office
work spaces and large full time staff in favor of
collaboration and outsourcing via Web‐based tools
• Age cohort differences in family and child rearing
patterns
• Young physicians opting for salaried employment rather
than private practice
Things like:
• Family and lifestyle groups
• Work life
• Business models
• Social institutions
• Governance structures

9. The Connect domain encompasses the technologies and practices used to connect
people, places, and things.
Connect
Examples of Changes Found within Connect
• Upward trend in individuals using mobile devices to
access information and communicate
• Prevalence of internet‐based social network services
• Emerging community fault lines over proposed mass
transit plans
Things like:
• Information technology
• Transportation and
mobility
• Urban design
• Language
• Media

10. Create is concerned with the technology and processes through which we produce
goods and services.
Create
Examples of Changes Found within Create
• Rising popularity of the DIY ethos
• Extrapolating the uses for advanced 3D printing
• The push for “localization” and local sourcing emerging
across several sectors
Things like:
• Manufacturing
• Biotechnology
• Nanotechnology
• Efficiency
• Work force
• Rule making

11. Consume is about the ways in which we acquire and use the goods and services
we create.
Consume
Examples of Changes Found within Consume
• Business models based on the “sharing economy”
premise
• Community efforts to reduce household water use
• Trends in the amount of disposable income controlled
by youth
Things like:
• Modes of exchange
• Retail practices
• Consumer preferences
• Marketing
• Patterns of consumption

12. The domain of Destroy is about the ways in which we destroy value and the
reasons for doing so.
Destroy
Examples of Changes Found within Destroy
• The falling trend of formally declared wars between
established states
• Potential hazard of engineered nanoparticles on human
health and the broader biological landscape
• “Cyber‐bullying” and the changing social dynamics for
American youth
Things like:
• Violence and killing
• Damage
• Refuse
• Inefficiencies
• Attempts to undermine
rules and norms

13. APPLICATIONS
Using the Verge lens to explore and interpret the world

14. Scanning
The Verge framework is used as an
alternative to the classic STEEP
categories for research.
To Organize a Scanning Effort
Used in its original application the
Verge domains are used to organize an
environmental scanning research
effort, using the domains as research
areas, within which researchers hunt
for weak signals.
To Categorize Scanning Hits
Similarly, the Verge domains can be
used to “bucket” the results of
scanning and research, regardless of
the organization of the research effort.
Verge domains used to organize an environmental scanning effort

15. Forecasting
Verge is often used in various ways
during forecasting exercises. Two
methods include emerging issues
analysis and interaction analysis.
Trend and Emerging Issues Analysis
Often related to a scanning effort, the
Verge framework has been used to
direct efforts to identify and forecast
potential emerging issues.
Interaction Analysis
Verge interaction analysis involves
forecasting the impact of changes in
one domain as they cascade across
other domains. This method can be
used to generate entire scenarios.
RelateConnect
ConsumeDestroy
Basic heuristic for Verge interaction analysis, incorporating a
version of layered analysis

16. Analysis
Using the Verge domains to structure
the exploration of implications of
trends, emerging issues, scenarios, and
other forecasts.
Implications Wheels
Practitioners often use a version of the
Futures Wheel to explore the
implications of an emerging issue or
scenario (rather than using it to build
parts of a scenario or forecast).
Critique Forecasts
Interaction analysis can also be used to
reconsider an existing scenario or
forecast by exploring logical cross‐
domain impacts that might alter the
basic forecast trajectory.
Demand for
3D design
courses
FedEx
printing
platform
DIY/Makers
edged out
of market
Consumer/
maker
digital
divide
Lots of new
waste
Shopping at
FedEx not
Wal‐Mart
ICT more
important
than ever
People sell
digital
designs
Cheap to
order more
stuff
Define
Relate
Connect
Create
Consume
Destroy
A factory in
every
community
3D printing
at FedEx
Kinkos
Seen as
critical for
econ dev
Basic implications wheel framed by the Verge domains

17. The general practice framework can often be used in conjunction with other established
futures methods and concepts. Below, using Verge with a simple layered analysis of change in
society.
Combining Frameworks
Surface Layer
Systems Layer
Worldview Layer
Define Relate Connect Create Consume Destroy
By combining the general practice framework with a framework like layered analysis (which identifies the different rates of
change that occur at different “layers” of society), we add additional structure that improves our analysis of the many,
subtle interrelationships both driving and responding to change.

18. Combining Frameworks
First Horizon Second Horizon Third Horizon
Define
Relate
Connect
Create
Consume
Destroy
Combining Verge with the Three Horizons2.
2 Andrew Curry and Anthony Hodgson. “Seeing in Multiple Horizons: Connecting Futures to Strategy.” Journal of Futures Studies. August 2008.

19. EXAMPLE: GOVERNANCE
Applying the framework to the futures of governance

20. First Horizon Second Horizon Third Horizon
Define Newtonian physics, popular
sovereignty
Systems, complexity science,
networks
?
Relate Representative government Online social networks machinarchy
Connect Mass media Internet, social media, mobile
devices
Internet of things
Create F2F deliberation, bureaucratic
administration; voting
Crowdsourcing, civic hacking,
co‐production
Machines, algorithms,
automation
Consume Go to government, use what
is provided
Websites, mobile apps Ambient persistent
governance
Destroy Political marginalization (lack
of suffrage)
Party polarization, special
interest groups, voter apathy
Democracy, human agency,
rampant sabotage
Sample
Combining Verge with the Three Horizons to explore the futures of governance.
managers3 entrepreneurs visionaries
3 Categories from Bill Sharpe, via Wendy Schultz, PhD

21. Mahalo.
(thank you)
Richard Lum, PhD
Chief executive officer
kaipo@kikilo.biz