How can foresight and Future Thinking Methodologies help on the Design of a successful and future-proof product or service? What are trends, scenarios or Black Swans? This presentation was given at Interaction South America as part of a workshop on applying Future Thinking to Concept Design.
A co-creation with Jane Vita, at Futurice.
3. We create digital services
for people to love.
• Founded in 2000
• 200+ employees from 18 countries
• 8th year in a row profitable growth
• YOY growth 30%
8. FORESIGHT
Foreseeing the Future is the ability to forecast
what will be needed or is going to happen
in the future.
Source: Raymond, 2010, Finpro
9. FORESIGHT IS NOT
- Predict the future
- Direct answers
- Market Research or Business Intelligence
Source: Raymond, 2010, Finpro
10. FORESIGHT IS
- Combine familiar things in new ways
- Makes you question your own “truths”
- Inspire you to look from other angles
- Helps to understand broader concepts
- Helps the development of sustainable business
- Helps find new business opportunities
Source: Raymond, 2010, Finpro
11. FORESIGHT IS
- Analyse the same date differently
- Identify patterns, similarities
- Professional intuition based on experience
- Process today’s world to find tomorrow’s
opportunities
Source: Raymond, 2010, Finpro
12. Martin Raymond, The Future Laboratory
“Working with Futures Thinking is not trying to predict the future, or having
futuristic ideas. Futures Thinking is applying new and emergent cultural
changes, after mapping and projecting these changes in a way that other
people can understand and visualise them.”
13. WHERE ARE THEY?
- Internal Consultants
- Consultants and companies who offer
Future Research, Foresight Services and
Trend Analysis
15. Garlain, 2011
“There’s not a single future, but a whole spectrum of likely futures that
depend on numerous possibilities, depending on decisions…
…The aim is to shape our brains and strategic plans to be more flexible
when facing the inevitability of the future.”
16. Mannermaa, 2004
“The most important thing for Futurologists is presenting as many
alternatives and views as possible, they are the ones who will support the
decisions to be made. ”
23. An iterative process which helps you consider a range of possibilities,
probably and preferable outcomes
ASKING THE
QUESTION
SCANNING
THE WORLD
MAPPING
POSSIBILITIES
ASKING THE
NEXT QUESTION
Source: Futures thinking process by Jamais Cascio
24. Futurologists create expectations about the
people’s and world’s future. Their goal is to support
your efforts on shaping the future.
25. We can make more informed Business and Design
decisions by foreseeing the future
30. Source: Sad Topographies
Simplifies the complex is an easy and digestable way
WORLD’S INFORMATION INSIGHTS AND PLANS
Source: Meristö, Laitinen, 2009
34. INFORMATION
COLLECTION
PESTE
Analysis
INFORMATION
PROCESSING
STRUCTURING
ALTERNATIVES
FUTURES
SELECTING /
EVALUATING
ALTERNATIVE
FUTURES
IDENTIFICATION
OF MARKET
NEEDS
CONCEPT
DEVELOPMENT,
TESTING
AND REFINEMENT
REALIZATION
Technology
Roadmap
Delphi -
Analysis
Future
table
Cross-Impact
Analysis
Time-Series
Analysis
Trend Analysis
Scenario
working
Futures table
Strategy
Working
Alternative
courses of
actions
Business
Potential
estimation of
scenarios
Competition
Analysis
Market
orientated
futures table
Scenario
storylines
SWOT
Market
Potential
Scenario
based theme
specific
identification
Concept
Drafts
Visualization
Visionary
Concepts
Commerciali-
zation
Piloting
Timing of
market
operations
and R&D
Cooperation
& Networks
FORESIGHT CONCEPTS
FUTURES THINKING
Foresight acIvity in the context of innovaIon process (Meristö 2009, as cited in Meristö and LaiInen 2009, 16).
35. UNDERSTANDING
Empathic
Conversations
THINKING GENERATING EXPLAINING FILTERING REALISING OPERATION
Observation
Ethnography
Probes
Future
Scenarios
Trend Analysis
Affinity wall
Personas
Mental
Models
Stage Play
Storyboard
Journey Map
Scenarios
Concepts
Prototypes
Use Cases
Scenario
What If
Service
Blueprint
Requirements
Roadmapping
Commerciali-
zation
Piloting
Timing of
market
operations
and R&D
Cooperation
& Networks
RESEARCH CONCEPTS DESIGN OPERATION
Multidisciplinary
Processing
Weak Signal
exploration
Non-Experts
Co-Design
Games
Drama
Co-Creative
Tools
Trend Cards
What If
Experience
Priorities
Deciding
Priorities
Agile
Development
Systematic
Implementation
SD PROCESS SUPPORTED BY FUTURES RESEARCH
SOURCE: MORITZ 2005, 123; EDITED BY KOSKELO AND NOUSIAINEN BASED ON THEIR RESEARCH, 2012
36. FUTURES THINKING Scenarios
PESTE
Context
Value Map
Personas
Trends
Weak Signals
Context
Value Map
Personas
What if
Roadmap
Storytelling
Play
Prototype
No constrains: Look far and
beyond for alternative and
desired contexts
DEFINE &
SCOPE
PROCESS &
IDEATE
DELIVER &
UTILIZE
DESIGN THINKING
Empathy and concreteness:
People driven systems and
solutions
Source: La Futura
37. UNDERSTANDING THINKING GENERATING EXPLAINING FILTERING REALISING OPERATION
INFORMATION
COLLECTION
INFORMATION
PROCESSING
STRUCTURING
ALTERNATIVES
FUTURES
SELECTING /
EVALUATING
ALTERNATIVE
FUTURES
IDENTIFICATION
OF MARKET
NEEDS
CONCEPT
DEVELOPMENT,
TESTING
AND REFINEMENT
REALIZATION
RESEARCH &
KNOWLEDGE CREATION
INTERPRET & DEVELOP CREATE &
TEST
FUTURES THINKING
SERVICE DESIGN
49. Examples:
Tinder, Facebook, Bimbi, Wearables….
- Your peers laugh at what you told
- “Never going to happen”
- People never heard about it,
- As more people speak more about it
more people get engaged
Weak Signals
Source: Hiltunen, 2010
50.
51. - A rare and unexpected event with huge
social implications
- Can be made by Nature (tsunamis)
- Can be made by Humans (scientific
discoveries)
Black Swans
Source: Xtreme events, 2011
52. Can be the possible destiny of something new or
different that might have a big impact over culture,
society or a specific market.
Raymond, 2009
Trend
53. A weak signal, behaviour change that becomes
more regular, and changes people, products and
ideas overtime.
Trend
54. Trends can be compulsive, addictive and sometimes
surprisingly viral when you least expected.
Trend
58. MEGA TREND
Broad and Profound
Comprehensive and
extend to all regions
of the world
Affects all actors:
- Companies
- Individuals
- Governments
Takes many years to
become perceived
60. MICRO
CULTURAL CHANGE
Changes in values and
attitudes of people
BEHAVIORAL CHANGE
Changes in practices,
patterns and models
SIGNALS
First Manifestations
GLOBAL CHANGE
Changes across the
globe
MACRO MEGA
OVER TIME
Source: Based on Anu K. Nousiainen research
61. Trend cards help you to visualise trends. There is a
big variety of models and canvases. The best one is
the one you and your stakeholders feel comfortable
with. They are a great summary for the subjects in a
trend report.
Trend cards
64. TREND6
Consumers
become Creators
Customers are becoming the designers.
They will sell customized products to their friends and community.
Consumers will care more about what they can do or create.
Futurice Oy, 2015
65. Customers are becoming the
designers and the best design
will be perceived as the one
which will give the customer
the power of creation.
Consumers will not only buy
from you but also sell the
customized products to their
friends and community.
Consumers will care less about
what they have or buy and
more about what they can do
or create..
• 85% of the 2014 Best Global
Brands have used crowdsourcing
in the last 10 years. (eYeka)
• The Best Global Brands are three
times more likely to use
crowdsourcing platforms than
websites and social media for their
crowdsourcing efforts. (eYeka)
• There is a strong commercial case
for personalization - those who
are doing it report 14% uplift in
sales. (e-consultancy)
!
!
Privacy is a big thing when
you create customers
profile. Retailers need to
treat it very seriously.
Creepiness – avoid
services that jus add extra
work to customer, but
rather gives an amazing
and seamless experience.
Find the right blend
between customer
creation and professional
expertise.
Always needs to be part of
the brand strategy.
New ways and channels to
communicate with
customers.
Know from customers
what they want and how
much they are involved
with your brand.
Ideas about new services
and also how to get the old
ones improved.
Create a controlled
environment in which
creation happens
(ikeahackers, Bugatti, etc.)
Trend intro Facts about the trend Challenges Opportunities
Consumers become Creators
Trend 6
Futurice Oy, 2015
72. Source: Sad Topographies
Scenarios are a good source of information to support
Business and Design decisions for regarding the Future
IDEA
1
Possible Future
Scenario
2
Possible Future
Scenario
3
Possible Future
Scenario
Today
Inspired by Alstyne, 2010, Hiltunen 2010, Meristö & LaiInen 2009
73. Source: Sad Topographies
Scenarios are guesses about the future, some more
likely to happen than others
Inspired by Alstyne, 2010, Hiltunen 2010, Meristö & LaiInen 2009
74. Scenarios are not predictions
Scenarios can just be compared and not judged. There’s no better
or worst, but more or less probable.
Inspired by Alstyne, 2010, Hiltunen 2010, Meristö & LaiInen 2009
75. Scenarios
Stories that can be analysed and
synthesised, built in a sequential order
based on possible futures.
PROBABLE . POSSIBLE . PLAUSIBLE .
DESIRED . REALISTIC . INSPIRING
76. Source: Sad Topographies
To apply a scenario to your case, you need to contextualise
it and analyse it from different prespectives
BUSINESS
DESIGN TECH
78. Instructions
1. Form groups
2. Choose 1 or more trend Cards
3. Identify 3 Consumer Needs
4. Ideate
5. Create a poster
6. Create a Customer Journey
7. Write your elevator pitch
8. Present Ideas
79. SEGMENTS
Private Companies
& Businesses
Government &
Politics
Economy &
Monetization
Media &
Entertainment
Science &
Technology
Arts & Culture Commerce Health &
Well-Being
Travel &
Transports
Education
82. Define your consumer needs
Identify at least 3 consumer needs that relate to your area.
This needs should to be addressed by your concept.
83. BASIC NEEDS
Which deep consumer needs & desires does this trend address?
What new consumer needs, wants and expectations are created by
the changes identified above? Where and how does this trend satisfy
them?
Who are other businesses applying this trend? Which (new) customer
groups could you apply
this trend to?
What would you have to
change?
Why is this trend emerging now? What’s changing? How and where could you apply this trend to your business?
Long-Term, Widespread, Macro
SHIFTS
Recent, Short-Term, Technologies
TRIGGERS
CONSUMER TREND CANVAS
DRIVERS OF CHANGE
TREND :
INNOVATION POTENTIAL
EMERGING COMSUMER EXPECTATIONS INSPIRATION WHO?
BUSINESS
IDEA
Source: trendwatching.com | CONSUMER TREND CANVAS