Notes for the keynote I gave at Third Sector Fundraising Live 2020.

1. 2020 vision: How charities must adapt and evolve in a
competitive landscape
Intro:
 Thanks to all of you for being here in your various spare
rooms and kitchenstoday.
 It’s a pleasure to have the chance to speak to you.
 I’m Rhodri Davies - I’m Head of Policy at CAF
 I also run our in-house think tank Giving Thought, where
we look at big issues and themes affecting philanthropy
and civil society now and in the future.
 Which is what I’m here to talk about today.
 Shouldsay: I said yes to this a while back- so obvs had
had to entirely rip up what I was planningon saying and
start again…ButI’ll do my best!
 Always like to point out that it’s a mug’s game trying to
predict the future
 That’s true at the best of times, but even more so in the
midst of a globalpandemic crisis when we’re seeing
potentiallyhuge changes taking place on a daily basis.

2.  So I’m not going to try to foretell the future.
 What I am going to do is offer some thoughts - based on
the work I’ve been doing over the past few years and on
many conversationsI’ve had with people who know
more than me – about some of the key trends and
themes that we are seeing emerge as we try to work out
what the post-covid future for civil society looks like.
SLIDE 1
 I was asked to think about “how charities must adapt
and evolve in a competitive landscape”.
 I thought I would break it into 3.
Competitive pressures & Macro trends:
o First thing to say is that it is obviouscivil society
orgs are facing multiple pressures right now
o Some specific short –term ones as result of
pandemic (e.g. shortfall in funding as demand
increases)

3. o BUT: also many challengesthat reflect longer-term
trends that were already there.
 SO: orgs will need to adapt& evolve in response (and
perhapsquicker than they thought)
 AND ALSO: may need to challenge some perceived
elements of “progress”
SLIDE 2
 The first thing I wanted to do is to think of the pressure
facing charities in terms of competition
 I’m not talking here aboutcompetition within the
charity sector for donations,grants, contracts etc
(though obvs that is a reality)
 RATHER: I’m talking about the wider sense in which
there will be ‘competition for doing good’ from outside
the traditionalcharity sector
 SO where can we already see that competition is going
to come from?
P2P platforms:

4. o From new technology enablingpeopleto give in very
old-fashionedways via platforms (person to person,
hyper-local etc)
Networked Movements (& campaigning platforms):
o From technologychanging the ways we organise,
allowingpeople to come together in networks without
having to create centralised infrastructure & hierarchies
(again, not new- but tech is enablingit at scale that was
previously impossible).
Mutual Aid Networks:
o Big example of this at the moment is the rise of informal
mutual aid networks.
Private Sector & Corporate “purpose”
o Is competitiongoing to come from the private sector?

5. o Another big thing the current crisis has highlightedis the
trend toward companies claiming a social purpose
o Which may bring them into direct competitionwith
charities
Public Sector (blurred lines)
o Or is it going to come from the public sector?
o Is the current wave of publiclove for the NHS and other
publicservices leads to the lines between charities and
state provision becoming ever more blurred in the
minds of the public?
o Reflected in giving behaviour(CAF research)
SLIDE 3
o So if these are at least some of the ways in which CSOs
face greater competition, what are some of the key
macro trends they reflect?
o The really big picture ones:

6. Localism vs Globalism:
 The pandemicis happeningat a global level, but the
effects are felt locally.
 SO: opinionis dividedon which way this could shift
things: will the solution be seen as devolvingmore
power to a local or community level OR combining it
more at national/international level
Narratives of State, Market & Charity
 Pandemic has sparked a lot of debate aboutwhat we
see as the desirable balanceof state, market and
everything else
 Raises big questionsabout where CSOs and charities fit
in that picture
Collectivism & Mutualism
 One thing the crisis has definitelydone is bring notions
of collectivism and mutualism to the fore.
 The interesting question is how this relates to our
notionsof charity and philanthropy?
Disintermediation & Decentralisation

7.  Removing perceived “middlemen”
 Drivers include:desire to connect directly, lack of
trust in intermediaries, cutting costs/ increasing
efficiency
Networks & Platforms
 In reality, disintermediation often means relying
more on a platform as an intermediary BUT layers
of intermediationcan be removed
 NB: problem is the narrative leads peopleto
believe infrastructure is free (CF: Just Giving
controversy)
 That plays into another trend: rise of commercial
platforms adding giving functionality,not dedicated
charity platforms
Participation, Agency & New Power
 Decentralisation is not just about reducing costs or
making transactions easier
 ALSO: about changing the organisational formswe
use so that power is move evenly distributed and
people are more easily able to participate.

8.  NB: qn about rise of networked movements- what
is it that appealsabout them? Is it the results they
get, or fact participation ishard-wired into them?
Rationalisation (Centralisation)
 We shouldn’tassume the direction of travel is inevitably
towards decentralisation.
 In fact, the current crisis is amplifying drivers in the
other direction- towards centralisation/rationalisation
 BECAUSE: there is an imperative to ensure that
charitableprovision is co-ordinated and effective
 AND: that leadsto push for centralised control
 HOWEVER: it might be possible to solve that co-
ordinationproblem without centralising, which brings us
on to 2 of the other key macro trends:
Datafication & Automation
Transparency
 If we have better data on charity: where the needs are,
where the money is coming from, where it is going etc,

9. AND it is transparent and open THEN that might enable
better coordinationwithout centralisationor control.
 This highlightsthe finaltrend:
Tech as Solution (and problem)
 The response to covid-19 and the changes we have all
had to make to how we work and live our lives has made
clear how central technology is to all of our lives, and
the ways in which it can be a powerful force for doing
good
 BUT: it also highlightsthe fact that technology is
creating new challenges and unintendedconsequences,
as data about us is captured all the time and algorithms
are used to shape our lives in terms of what we see &
hear, the choices presented to us and the freedoms we
enjoy
 As we move into the future, there will no longer be a
dividingline between “technology issues” and all the
other issues that CSOs work on- allissues will be
affected by technology to some extent.

10. SLIDE
 SO, zooming back in again to focus on charities and
CSOs, what does all this mean in terms of how they may
need to adaptand evolve?
New donor behaviours/expectations:
o Participation
 Are peoplelooking for someone more than
passive relationship/financial transaction?
 Is this part of the appealof networked
movements- that participationis baked into
them?
 Are charities meeting this need?
o Openness
 Important element of participation is
openness and transparency BECAUSE people
feel sense of ownership/agency and want to
be informed/have their say
o Digital First
 Expectation that doing things online/via
platform or app is an option

11. o Choice & Recommendation
 People increasinglywant tailored advice and
recommendationsfor shopping,music, TV etc.
 Why can’t they get that when it comes to
charity?
o Not them but us
 Shift in narratives of need and how we address
it as result of crisis affecting us all/shared
experience
 LEADS TO…
Behaviours
o New Mutualism
o End of organisational loyalty
 Are younger supporters likely to stick with a
single org or brand- set up a DD etc- or are
they more likely to respond to time-limited
campaigns, peer-led fundraising asks etc?
o Philanthro-localism
 As peoplebecome more aware of and
connected with their immediate surroundings,

12. will this sharpen their sense of place and lead
them to think more about giving locally?
o Hyper-empathy & hyper-rationality
 As our abilityto make data-drivendecisions
OTOH, and to create empathetic experiences
through storytelling (inc new tech like VAR)
OTO increases, will the pull between head &
heart when it comes to charity get much
stronger?
SLIDE
What might this mean for adaptationin fundraising?
 New models:
o Crowdfunding & P2P giving
o Supporter-led fundraising
 New channels:
o Commercial platforms
o Voice-operatedinterfaces
o Virtual/Augmentedreality interfaces
 New assets

13. o Participationbeyond volunteering(CF: open source
movement)
o Digital assets?
 New donors
o E.g. Gamers
o Generation of young peoplewith formative
experience of crisis (views on charity, NHS etc)
SLIDE:
What might this mean when it comes to adaptionin how
charities more broadly work?
New ways of working
o (remote teams, distributed orgs etc)
Collaboration, coordination & merger
What does resilience look like?
Foresight
Core costs & trust-based fundraising

14. Purpose-based partnerships with corporates (NB: helping
those seeking purpose to find it?)
New models for working with public sector
Challenging “progress”?
o BUT: this is not just about charities & CSOs having to
respond or adapt to changes.
o Where there are reasons to push back on external
drivers and fight for things we already have, charities
will need to do so.
o In particular we may well need to make a clearer case
about the full value of what charities do:
Value of voluntarism
o Why might addressing an issue through voluntarymeans
be preferable even if the state could do it?
o Agency, social capital etc
Value of gift
o What is the ongoing value of gifts given with no
expectation of return ?

15. Value of infrastructure
o What is the value of infrastructure in enablingus to give
and enablingcharities to work effectively?
o How much infrastructure do we need, and how do we
make sure peopleare willingto pay for it?
o NB: recent Just Giving controversy
Value of offline
o We are currently doing everything onlineby necessity-
as we emerge from the crisis, how much of that should
we retain and where do we need to make a case for the
value of offline interactions?
Value of fundraising:
o What is the value of fundraising?
o Obviouslybringing in money, but what else?
o One thing I would argue is that as fundraisers are the
frontline contact with supporters & the publicfor many
organisations,so they will be a key part of making some
of these other arguments.

16.  They will need to be advocatesas well as income-
generators
 I realise that fundraisers have a lot on their plates
already, as they need to be part psychologist, part
economists, part storyteller, part salesperson etc.
 So many may not thank me for suggesting that you need
to be politicalscientists and futurists too!
 However, I mean this to be an empowering message:
 At a time when the landscapein which charities operate
is shifting in potentially hugeways, if fundraisers engage
with some of the bigger-picture issues they can play an
absolutelyvital role in ensuring that charities adapt and
evolve to whatever the coming years bring; and thus
ensure that civil society remains vibrant and strong into
the future.
THANK YOU.