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Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.
The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions and are ...
Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Recent market performance, trends
20-year traffic and airplane forecast
Prod...
Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.
NOTE: Annual growth rates (%) and cumulative profit ($B)
Cargo
market
recove...
Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Continued
strong
replacement
demand
Market
much more
diverse,
balanced
Growt...
Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.
20-year traffic and airplane forecast
Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Twenty-year traffic and product
forecast
All regions of the world
• 185 airl...
Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Product
strategy
Long-range
business plan
Suppliers and
airline customers
Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Accurate
Conservative
Under-forecasted
single-aisles
Over-forecasted large
a...
Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.
reca
Infrastructure Economic
growth
Market
liberalization
Emerging
markets
F...
Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
198...
Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Trade
GDP level
GDP per capita
Labor force
Network structure
Infrastructure
...
Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.
2014 to 2034
3.1%
World
economy
(GDP)
4.9%
Airline
traffic
(RPK)
4.7%
Cargo
...
Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.
~6% traffic growth
(RPKs)
SOURCE: IATA and BCA Analysis
+180 million
passeng...
Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Market fragmentation drives growth
SOURCE: August OAG
In...
Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.
It’s what passengers want, not bigger airplanes
New direct
routes
Additional...
Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Region Airplanes
Airplane deliveries: 38,050
2015 - 2034
0
5,000
10,000
15,0...
Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Region Airplanes
Airplane deliveries: $5.6 trillion
2015 - 2034
0
500
1,000
...
Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Global fleet will double
Units
38,050
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30...
Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2...
Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.
SOURCE: Ascend & Boeing CMO
12%
65%
11%
8%
3%
6%
70%
13%
9%
2%
Large wide-bo...
Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q...
Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
New freighter deliveries: 920
2015–2034
Airpla...
Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.
2015 to 2034
Freighters
Delivery units
2014
Freighters
1,720
2034
Freighters...
Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Product strategy
Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Superior value, efficient market coverage
737-900ER
200
150
100
500
450
400
...
Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Backlog by value ($B)
Backlog = 5,715 aircraft
Value = $435 billion Model
Si...
Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.
Strong, growing market being driven by expansion
Single-aisle fuelling forec...
Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved.
For more information, please visit our CMO website:
http://www.boeing.com/cmo
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Commercial Aviation Outlook: 2015-2034 by Boeing

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Veröffentlicht am

In this presentation you will find
Recent commercial aviation market performance,
Trends 20-year traffic
Airplane forecast by region, by aircraft type.
Market Forecast drivers
Drivers of Air travel demand
Airline retirements
Fleet composition change
Air cargo market growth
New freighter demand
Boeing product strategy

Veröffentlicht in: Business
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Commercial Aviation Outlook: 2015-2034 by Boeing

  1. 1. Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved. The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions and are to be used for general information purposes only. These statements do not constitute an offer, promise, warranty or guarantee of performance. Boeing Commercial Airplanes July 2014 July 2014 Current Market Outlook 2015 Randy Tinseth Vice President, Marketing June 2015 Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved. . The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions are to be used for general information purposes only. These statements do not constitute an offer, promise, warranty or guarantee of performance.
  2. 2. Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved. Recent market performance, trends 20-year traffic and airplane forecast Product strategy Agenda
  3. 3. Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved. NOTE: Annual growth rates (%) and cumulative profit ($B) Cargo market recovering nicely Passenger market resilient, growing Global economic growth rate below average Airlines managing better than ever before Since 2010
  4. 4. Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved. Continued strong replacement demand Market much more diverse, balanced Growth driven by emerging economies, LCCs New airplanes, capabilities opening new markets
  5. 5. Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved. 20-year traffic and airplane forecast
  6. 6. Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved. Twenty-year traffic and product forecast All regions of the world • 185 airlines / groups • 63 traffic flows All jets 30 seats and above • No turbo props • No business jets Freighters Scheduled and nonscheduled flying
  7. 7. Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved. Product strategy Long-range business plan Suppliers and airline customers
  8. 8. Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved. Accurate Conservative Under-forecasted single-aisles Over-forecasted large and regional jets Fleet consists of all jet aircraft with at least 90 seats SOURCES: CMO 1995, CMO 2005, ASCEND 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 2005 - 2014 0 4,000 8,000 12,000 16,000 20,000 1995 - 2014 Medium-term Long-term 1995 CMO Forecast 2005 CMO Forecast Actual Actual
  9. 9. Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved. reca Infrastructure Economic growth Market liberalization Emerging markets Fuel price Airline strategies & business models Airplane capabilities Environment High speed rail Current Market Outlook 2015-2034
  10. 10. Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved. 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Resilient, growing market expected to continue 5% long-term growth rate RPKs = Revenue Passenger Kilometers SOURCE: ICAO scheduled traffic RPKs(trillions) Above trend since 2010
  11. 11. Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved. Trade GDP level GDP per capita Labor force Network structure Infrastructure Business model Regulatory environment Macroeconomics Value of service Demand
  12. 12. Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved. 2014 to 2034 3.1% World economy (GDP) 4.9% Airline traffic (RPK) 4.7% Cargo traffic (RTK) Number of airline passengers 4.0%
  13. 13. Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved. ~6% traffic growth (RPKs) SOURCE: IATA and BCA Analysis +180 million passengers +900 more airplanes (passenger)
  14. 14. Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved. 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Market fragmentation drives growth SOURCE: August OAG Index 1994=1.00 Frequency Growth Nonstop Markets Average Airplane Size Air Travel Growth World
  15. 15. Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved. It’s what passengers want, not bigger airplanes New direct routes Additional frequencies Larger airplane size on existing routes 78% 8% 14%
  16. 16. Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved. Region Airplanes Airplane deliveries: 38,050 2015 - 2034 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 Regional jets 7% Single- aisle 70% Small wide-body 13% Large wide-body 1% Medium wide-body 9% 2,490 26,730 4,770 540 3,520 New airplane deliveries by region 2015 - 2034 38% 19% 8% 8% 3% 3% 21% 38,050 Asia 14,330 North America 7,890 Europe 7,310 Middle East 3,180 Latin America 3,020 Africa 1,170 C.I.S. 1,150 World Total 38,050
  17. 17. Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved. Region Airplanes Airplane deliveries: $5.6 trillion 2015 - 2034 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 Regional jets 2% Single- aisle 50% Small wide-body 22% Large wide-body 4% Medium wide-body 22% $100B $2,770B $1,250B $230B $1,220B New airplane values by region 2015 - 2034 39% 19% 13% 6% 3% 3% 17% $5.6T Asia $2,200B North America $940B Europe $1,050B Middle East $730B Latin America $350B Africa $160B C.I.S. $140B World Total $5,570B
  18. 18. Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved. Global fleet will double Units 38,050 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 2014 2034 5,510 Retained fleet 16,090 Replacement 42% 21,960 Growth 58% 43,560 21,600
  19. 19. Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Widebody Single-aisle Western jets retired with >90 seats, excluding hull losses SOURCE: Flight Global Ascend
  20. 20. Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved. SOURCE: Ascend & Boeing CMO 12% 65% 11% 8% 3% 6% 70% 13% 9% 2% Large wide-body Medium wide-body Single-aisle Regional jet Small wide-body 2014 21,600 airplanes 2034 43,560 airplanes
  21. 21. Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved. -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 Air cargo market Year-over-year RTK growth SOURCE: IATA Carrier Tracker (industry international scheduled freight) and A4A US domestic cargo traffic
  22. 22. Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 New freighter deliveries: 920 2015–2034 Airplaneunits Market value: $290 billion 2015–2034 Marketvalue Medium 40-80 tonnes 30% Medium 40-80 tonnes 21% $60B Standard <45 tonnes Large >80 tonnes 79% $230B Standard <45 tonnes Large >80 tonnes 70% 0 50 100 150 200 250 270 650 $0B0
  23. 23. Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved. 2015 to 2034 Freighters Delivery units 2014 Freighters 1,720 2034 Freighters 2,930 Share of fleet 2,340 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1,020 650 400 270 Large production >80 tonnes Wide-body conversions 40-120 tonnes Medium wide-body production 40-80 tonnes Standard-body conversions <45 tonnes
  24. 24. Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved. Product strategy
  25. 25. Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved. Superior value, efficient market coverage 737-900ER 200 150 100 500 450 400 350 300 250 Seats 200 150 100 500 450 400 350 300 250 Seats 737-700 737-800 747-8 787-9 777-200ER 777-300ER 787-8 767-300ER 737 MAX 9 737 MAX 8 737 MAX 7 787-9 747-8 787-8 787-10 Current Boeing Future Boeing 777-8X 777-9X 737 MAX 200
  26. 26. Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved. Backlog by value ($B) Backlog = 5,715 aircraft Value = $435 billion Model Single- Aisle 45% Twin- Aisle 54% 747 737 767 787 777 Large 1% Region L. America & Africa Asia Pacific Leasing, Gov't & BBJ North America ME, Central & S. Asia China, East & SE Asia Europe & Russia
  27. 27. Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved. Strong, growing market being driven by expansion Single-aisle fuelling forecast Boeing product strategy is right for today and the future Things to remember
  28. 28. Copyright © 2015 Boeing. All rights reserved. For more information, please visit our CMO website: http://www.boeing.com/cmo

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