Zhenling Cui, College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University Presented at the ReSAKSS-Asia conference “Agriculture and Rural Transformation in Asia: Past Experiences and Future Opportunities”. An international conference jointly organized by ReSAKSS-Asia, IFPRI, TDRI, and TVSEP project of Leibniz Universit Hannover with support from USAID and Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) at the Dusit Thani Hotel, Bangkok, Thailand December 12–14, 2017.

1. College of Resources and Environmental Sciences,
China Agricultural University, Beijing 100094, China
E-mail: cuizl@cau.edu.cn
Pursuing Sustainable Productivity with
Millions of Smallholder Farmers
Zhenling Cui, etc.
Agriculture and Rural Transformation in Asia: Past Experiences and Future
Opportunities

2. Outline
 Background and challenge
 National campaign with produce more grains
with less environmental impacts
 Future research with sustainable productivity

3. It took several hundred years to realize the
dream of food sel-sufficiency in China
(Data from the Statistic Bureau of China
Demand was estimated by using average grain demand of 400 kg/capita/year)
Year
Graindemandandproduction(Mtons)
Population(M)
580
600
620
640
214
305
407
505 431
531
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1961 1969 1977 1985 1993 2001 2009 2017 2025
Grain(millionton)
Year
Grain demand
Grain production
Population
600 MT in 2013Population
Chinese agriculture has a big role to play in feeding the 1.4 billion people.

4. 83rd
IFA Annual Conference
Unfortunately, we used too much aricultural inputs, e.g. fertilizer
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
Estern Europe and Centrl Asia
North America
Western Europe
China
(Adopted from IFA)
N
P
K
101-fold
40-fold
700-fold

5. Low nutrient use efficiency (NUE) ---Low PFP
Partial factor productivity: PFPN = kg harvest product per kg N applied
year
y = -0.9308x + 1892.1
R
2
= 0.8502
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Fertilizerapplicationrate(kg/ha)
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
PFPN(kggrain/kgN)
N application rate
PFPN
As a result, N use efficiency is decreasing with years.

6. CH 4
C, N
C, N
- -
C, N
C, N
CO 2
, N 2
C, N
C, N
N
CH 4
, CO 2
, NH 3
,
N 2
O, NO x
NO 3
N 2
O
Crop & animal production
Human consumption
OutputInput
Agriculture:
A rather
leaky system
Emission
leaching

7. Environmental costs were very high!
(Science 2009, 1014-1015)
Eutrophication
1980s: 13.2 kg N/ha
2000s: 21.1 kg N/ha
60% of increase
Air pollution
-0.5
Soil acidification
pH 4.2
pH 6.1

8. Outline
 Background and challenge
 National campaign with produce more grains
with less environmental impacts
Q1, Can we reduce fertilizer use without yield losses in China?
Q2, Can we produce more grains with less environmental costs?
Q3, Can millions of smallholder farms adopt our management?
 Future research with sustainable productivity

9. Overuse and misuse N fertilization
(2003)

10. 2009: Cut down N fertilizer by 30-50% reduces N loss
into environment without reducing crop yield!
Can we reduce fertilizer use without yield losses in China?

11. Integrated N management in
China
 + Yield: 6.1-6.7%
 - N rate: 17.8-18.7%
 - Efficiency: 27.8-31.8%
 - Nr losses: 21.1-26.3%
 - GHG emission: 11.2-21.2%
n = 50,459, during 2001-2015
Maize Rice Wheat

12. Opt.+45 kg N ha-1
Opt. N
Heilongjiang province

13. Doubling maize yield without increasing N application rate.
1. Designing cropping system
to adopt local ecological
conditions, to make use of
solar radiation and periods
with favorable temperatures to
the maximum possible extent,
and thereby increase crop
productivity.
2. Establishing an in-season root
zone nutrient management
strategy for high-yielding
cropping system.
(Chen et al., 2011, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA. )
2011 Solution for maize
Can we produce more grains with less environmental costs?

14. >30%
>50%
>40%
80% ISSM
Projected demand
2014 Success in 3 main crops
(Chen et al.,Nature, 2014)
2014 Producing more grain with less environmental costs in intensive agriculture

15. Campaign
collaborators
(1,152)
Extension staff
(65,420)
Provincial ag-bureau
County/township
ag-technicians
Agbusiness personnel
(138,530)
Product stewardship
Regional marketing
Local dealers, sales-reps
Scientists
Grad-students
Smallholder
farmers
(20.9 million)
452 counties
Lead farmers
Farmer co-ops
……
0.8 million ha
A schematic illustration of the multi-tiered multilateral campaign
aimed at reaching out to smallholder farmers with ISSM-based
management practices for high yield high efficiency and low pollution
Can millions of stallholder farms adopt our management in whole China?

16. Farm-based Double High Technology (DHT)
Innovation and Transfer by Science & Technology
Backyard (STB)
Live in the villages
Work with farmers in 4-zero models
zero-distance, zero-time lag, zero-charge
and zero-personnel selection
Doing experiment
Farmer school
How do we do this large-scale demonstration?

17. A. 优化技术措施相对传统
技术措施增产幅度
B. 采用优化技术农户比例（绿色）
和未采用优化技术措施农户比例（
浅色）
不当品种
播种量过大
不适宜的密度
播期过早
过早使用
使用过多或者过少
过早使用
耕作过浅
不当品种
过早收获
民技 到位率农 术
18%
53%
建立前 建立后
Wheat variety
Maize variety
Maize sowing density
Wheat sowing date
and amount
Maize sowing date
Maize harvest date
Wheat N rate
Maize N rate
Wheat top-dressing
Wheat deep plow
A. Contribution to Yield B. Adopting rate Increase in adopting rate
by 90,000householders
Contribution, adopting rate and increase in adopting rate of ten key technologies
2016 Success in 4 villages

18. ISSM on-farm trails
 + Yield: 18.3-21.8%
 - N rate: 8.5-15.6%
 + Efficiency: 26.0-33.1%
 - Nr losses: 22.9-34.9%
 - GHG emission: 18.6-29.1%
n = 13,123, during 2001-2015
Maize Rice Wheat
2017 Success in China
Demonstration
Land: 37.7 million ha
Production: +32 million tons
N use: -1.2 million tons
N losses: -0.3 million tons
GHG emission: -15 million tons
Income: +12.3 billion $
Nature, 2017, accepted.

19. Designed fertilizer Farmers'’ practice
Anqing station,
Heilongjiang （ 05.8.28 ）
Saving N by 38% ， Yield increase by

20. N surplus, N recovery efficiency and GHG emission in
China’s major croplands from 1978 to 2014.
Jiao et al., unpublished data

21. Outline
 Background and challenge
 National campaign with produce more grains
with less environmental impacts
 Future research with sustainable productivity

22. Transformation of agriculture in China
From solely high productivity to 4 Wins
• High crop yield
• High resource use efficiency
• high farmer’s income
• low environmental pollutions
The challenges ahead:

23. Management

24. Nutrient management for vegetable and fruit
Data Source: Survey by MoA, China
Fruit
Vegetables
Grain production
Chemicalfertilizeruse(kgha-1
)
Groundwater
N in 100cm 384 1267 651
Crop demand 280 329 121
N accumulation as nitrate in 0-100cm soil layer(kg/ha)
in cereal, vegetable and fruit production systems in China
100cm
Large amount of nitrate accumulated in soil

25. Smallholder farmer vs Large-scale farmer

26. Policies, i.e. Action plan for Zero Growth in Fertilizer
Use by 2020

27. Scenario analysis of Action plan for Zero
Growth in Fertilizer Use by 2020
National target of zero-increse
40% N use efficiency
80% manure use rate ， N,P,K
reduces 10 、 3 、 2million tons
75% of crop straw return
6178
5766
53835658
5431
6178
5094
4489
5168
3789
Reduce application rate by 30%
in vegetable and fruit trees
10000tons
(WF Zhang, PC)

28. Improved managements can make significant
contribution for food security and sustainable
development.
We need greater understanding of interactions
among soil, crop, and environment, including
processes governing the relationships among
agricultural inputs, soil quality, climate, and crop
productivity.
Summary

29. Acknowledgements
-- Ph D students in my group, collaborators in National ISSM Network in China
-- MoA, MoST and NSFC
Thanks
for coming and listening!

30. Varieties
NH
3
volatilizationrespondrate(%)
0
20
40
60
80
(n=18)
(n=143) (n=108)(n=10)
Maize
old new old new
Wheat
Nleachingrespondrate(%)
0
20
40
60
80
(n=80)
(n=36)
(n=66)
(n=28)
Maize Wheat
old old new
Varieties
new
2
0
2
4
6
8
(n=152)
old
(n=138)
(n=33)
Maize Wheat
(n=23)
new old new
Varieties
-9% -21% -64% -69% -33% -39%
N2O emission N leaching NH3 volatilization
Breeding vs Nr losses

31. Why did farmers apply so much N fertilizer in China?
 Most extension staff and farmers believed “more
fertilizer and higher grain yields”
About 67% of farmers add excessive N fertilizer for high grain yields;
About 45% of farmers add excessive N fertilizer for soil fertility.
Small-scale farming with high variation, and poor
infrastructure in the extension service
around 30% of fertilization information from the fertilizer dealer,
30% from their neighbors, 30% from experience
only <10% from extension services
High off-farm incomes and relatively low retail prices
of N fertilizers (with government subsidies for
production and transportation).

32. National campaign (2006-2015)
DesignedISSM-based management practices
Interview local experts and Lead farmers
Area-applicablerecommendations
Crop ecophysiology
(crop canopy and solar radiation use, dry
matter accumulation, nutrient demand)
Soil biogeochemistry
(nutrient availability, losses,
soil fertility, fertilizer inputs)
ResearchNetworks (1,152)
Implement through on-farm trials
Central government
Governmentalpersonnel (65,420)
Province
County
(Policy, campaign and projects)
Company's headquarters
Agribusinesspersonnel (174,530)
Sale man
retail dealers
(Supply and market support)
Smallholder farmers (20.9 millionfarmers)
(Lead farmers, Farmer co-operatives, etc)
6.1 Million ha30.8 Million ha 0.8 Million ha

33. (Maize, n = 2.89 millions)
Nutrient rate
205 kg N ha-1
75 kg P2O5 ha-1
46 kg K2O ha-1
Grain yield
7.24 Mg ha-1
Estimated nutrient balance
20.8 kg P2O5 ha-1
6.3 kg K2O ha-1
74 kg N ha-1
70% straw
return