1. The 2017-2018 Annual Trends and Outlook Report (ATOR)
An Overview
Fleur Wouterse and Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse
International Food Policy Research Institute

2. Objectives
 the 2017–2018 ATOR takes an in-depth look at social protection in rural
Africa:
 summarizes the available evidence on successful implementation of SPPs;
 helps fill knowledge gaps related to enhancing the role of social protection in
reducing vulnerability and increasing resilience of rural households (the Malabo
Declaration, the African Union’s Agenda 2063).
 highlights policy implications to guide the design and roll-out of national social
protection programs for rural Africa.
 the 2017–2018 ATOR reviews progress on CAADP indicators outlined in the
CAADP Results Framework 2015–2025 and the CAADP implementation
process (Plenary Session VI)

3. Realization and commitment growing …
 Widespread realization of the need for and the potential benefits of
social protection;
 Four pathways linking social protection and agricultural development and, more
broadly, economic growth. SPPs:
o protect household assets in case of shocks;
o create individual, household, and community assets;
o help households cope with risk and enable households to use their existing
resources more effectively;
o reduce inequality;
 Caveats
o create disincentive effects;
o overly costly;

4. Realization and commitment growing …
 Widespread realization of the need for and the potential benefits of social protection;
 Continent-wide: the 2014 Malabo Declaration, African leaders committed to end
hunger on the continent by 2025 – integrate social protection with measures to
increase agricultural productivity (CAADP);
 Country level efforts:
o Initiatives in multiple domains – food assistance, cash transfers, pension
schemes, school feeding, …
o institutionalize systems of assistance;
1995-2003 2003-2008 2008-2012
Annual Average per capita level (in 2005 USD) 12.9 28.9 49.3
Share in total government expenditure (%) 5.2 6.4 12.5
Government Expenditure on Social Protection in Africa– levels and shares

5. Social protection works …
 Impacts (chapters 4-8):
 smooth consumption/protect assets, reduce food insecurity (increase nutrient
availability);
 can generate economy-wide (local through to national) productivity and income
growth through multiplier effects;
 disincentive effects do not appear significant (labor supply, private transfers, local
prices)
 Synergies with agriculture (chapters 2-3):
 SP programs enhance human capital and risk-management capacity; increase
productivity; move from subsistence to resilient livelihoods.

6. Appropriate design and robust evaluation vital …
 Design (chapters 8-11)
 Targeting:
o difficult – the poor are heterogenous (characteristics, location, context)
o categorical targeting, geographic targeting, proxy means tests, self-selection,
community-based targeting (CBT);
o benefits the poor, though effectiveness varies
 Other key aspects
o the choice of payment modality, and graduation;
 Evaluation and learning
 what works is not always clear – document progress;
 evaluate, learn, improve – experimentation can be valuable;

7. Scale-up and Sustainability major challenges …
 Scale-up
 Large programs are uncommon (except SA, Ethiopia);
 Scale-up necessary to enlarge benefits, cater for demand;
 Sustainability (Chapter 8)
 Effectiveness – costs and long–term impact varies with program type (Livelihood,
Cash Transfer, and Graduation Approaches);
 Funding – switch from external to domestic funding;
 A sustainable multi-objective social protection program requires:
 an effective institutional architecture that can mobilize resources and expertise,
design an equitable and efficient targeting system, efficient coordination among
stakeholders, and ;
 continuous quantitative and qualitative empirical assessment to generate
evidence for learning and to improve the design of subsequent phases;

8. Thank you