"The fall of digital" as presented at Webuquerque, November 2010. "For the past 15 years, the business, marketing and technology communities have been turned upside down with the mass adoption of the internet. Millions have been made and lost. Companies founded and companies gone broke. Business as usual has been changed forever, but the change isn't over yet. As the realities of the new connected world take hold, the architects of that world (the web developers and digital agencies) may be the ones who pay. How are the trends of today going to affect the professionals that set the ball in motion? That's what we will talk about in The Fall of Digital."

2. 15 years ago
something changed

3. It was new

4. It was going
to change
business

5. It was going to change society

6. It was going to
change the
world

7. Internet

8. It wasn't like anything
that came before it

9. It wasn't like TV

10. It wasn't like Radio

11. It wasn't like Print

12. PR people didn't know what to do with it

13. Advertising people didn't
know what to do with it
http://www.flickr.com/photos/finnurmalmquist/3207097477/

14. IT people &
scientists almost
knew what to do
with it

15. So we had to
have invent new
professionals

16. The great equalizer

17. It would
democratize
everything

18. Small shops and
big shops could
compete equally

19. Location didn't matter anymore

20. It was going to change
everything

21. The industry got hot

22. New digital
firms were born

23. Popping up all over the place

24. ...trying to cut into where
business was currently
spending its money

25. PR Firms
Ad Firms

26. Ad Firm
PR Firm
IT Firm
+ W W W
+ W W W
+ W W W

27. they hired and
acquired to offer the
services to clients

28. With these new capabilities
they pushed it on every
client
http://www.flickr.com/photos/deadhorse/79236362/

29. The Media started talking about how digital
firms are the wave of the future

30. Talk of "Digital"
was everywhere

31. Investors bought
anything with
a .com in it

32. Millions
were made

33. ...then the bubble burst

34. and Millions where lost

36. Everyone realized that the internet
was not magic

37. it wasn't an ATM

38. Everyone knew it
was a big deal
they just weren't
sure how
anymore.

39. So what was it?

40. Depends on who you ask
http://www.flickr.com/photos/pitadel/4951801589/

41. democratize media.

42. Anyone can learn how
to publish online

43. Then the industry
started to mature
http://www.flickr.com/photos/juhansonin/4137915935/

44. We have websites
now what

45. Email marketing
got big

46. it got a lot of hype

47. the snake oil salesmen moved in

48. and then it became a profession

49. SEO got big

50. it got a lot of hype

51. the snake oil salesmen moved in

52. and then it became a profession

53. Affiliate marketing
got big

54. it got a lot of hype

55. the snake oil salesmen moved in

56. and then it became a profession

57. Results and
outcomes

58. Who do you believe?

59. "Its all about other sites"

60. "Its all about links"

61. "its all about what your website does"

62. Who do you believe?

63. In 1950 if you
needed a lawyer
you got a lawyer

64. patents
hrlitigation
trademark protection

65. PPC
DeveloperUX / UI designer
Email
SEO
Social Media

66. All these people cost money

67. Its not you
neighbors 12
year old

68. If you don't have
a multi-million
dollar budget

69. which most companies don't

70. what do you get and what do you leave?

71. and how do you even know the difference

72. Who do you listen to?

73. confusion

75. ?
x

76. For technical people it
was all about mashups,
feeds and ajax

77. For nontechnical people it was community,
sharing and publishing

78. It was the wave of the future

79. It was going
to change
business

80. It was going to change society

81. It was going to
change the
world

83. Didn't we hear
this already?

85. the operating system that runs Farmville
© ® TM

86. the central place for storing your photos of the
party where you got too drunk to stand up
http://www.flickr.com/photos/15938251@N08/2174292717/

87. then got fired for it

89. Its easy to see
how obvious
things we're in
hind site

90. the rise of digital was the same
shiny object syndrome as
everything media channel before it

91. Radio was supposed to destroy print

92. TV was supposed to
render Radio obsolete

93. The internet was
supposed to kill TV

94. It didn't happen

95. It’s not going to happen

96. You had to be a technician
to make radio work

97. then the amateurs showed
up with HAM radios

98. Then the industry matured and professions split
Production Director
Broadcast Engineers
Content Producers
Recording Engineers
Etc... Etc... Etc...

99. TV followed the same path

100. Now you can get your TV
commercials produced for
free by the cable
company

101. ...and anyone
can buy a
camera
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:JVC_Camcorder.jpg

102. The internet did not kill TV

103. People watch 20% more TV now
than they did 20 years ago
(before the internet got popular)
http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/media_entertainment/average-tv-viewing-for-2008-09-tv-season-at-all-time-high/

104. Its the same old story
The internet is one more channel

105. it isn't single purpose
Except...

106. you watchtv

107. you listento the radio

108. you readprint

109. watch, listen, read, publish, build
and socialize online

110. More complexity
means more areas
of specialization

111. We are on the same track
it will just take longer to
settle down

112. Web 2.0 was just as obvious

113. How do companies
pick a service
provider?

114. Interview many sources
Research their options
Compare their options
√
√
√

115. NO.

116. sure... some do

117. most don’t

118. Most businesses in
this country are
small businesses

119. AND THEY ARE BUSY

120. - Don't know who to ask
- Don't know who to believe
- Can't tell the difference
Interview many sources
Research their options
Compare their options
√
√
√

121. ...so they ask a friend

122. They “activate” their social network

123. its how humans are

124. the social web
didn't invent this

125. any entrepreneur
that operated
before the
internet can tell
you that

126. Its not what you know its who you know

127. Do You Friends Know?

128. "Fred did my website
and its CRUD based,
totally ReSTful and
degrades gracefully"

129. "Oh yea, I need a cruddy
degrading website"

130. So Fred
gets
called.

131. What if Fred is
a neighbors 12
year old?

132. What if Fred sucks?

133. How can the
client tell?

134. What if...

135. Doesn't have good network - asocial

136. Doesn't get a response from their network

137. Doesn't get a response from their network
Bad experiences

138. Doesn't get a response from their network
Bad experiences
Just don't know

139. Doesn't get a response from their network
Bad experiences
Just don't know
The guy that did their website
is a veterinary assistant now

140. Doesn't get a good vibe from their
recommended service provider

141. They just don't jive

143. Now what do they do?

145. They see a banner ad
Display
Punch the Monkey
Win an MP3 Player

146. They follow an affiliate link

147. They see a TV
commercial

148. They attend a webinar

149. They rely on the branding
they have been exposed to

150. They do what they have always done
Rely on Traditional Channels

151. Digital is a traditional channel

152. So did the social web destroy
the traditional web?

153. Did web 2.0 make
web 1.0 obsolete?

154. No.

156. You will lose half your audience.

157. The social web
is just another
channel

158. its getting a lot of hype

159. the snake oil salesmen have moved in

160. A new profession is being born

161. Another cog in the marketing wheel

162. Integration

165. Increased sales and
won awards

167. April 1, 1982

168. Most people have no idea the
social part ever happened -
they just saw the TV
commercial

169. The latest "Super Social Media Success"
came from a traditional agency

170. So where are companies
looking for Digital and
Social Media help?

171. PR Firms
Direct Marketing
Firms
PR Firms

172. So what does it all mean?

173. No one owns the space.

174. You don’t need to "Know" web development

175. We don’t need to “Know” web code to sell online

176. You don’t need to “Know” technology to promote a business

177. So what about all
the digital folks
that got us here?

178. Have we made a world
where the world doesn't need us?

179. For most organizations
technical expertise takes a
back seat to strategy
http://www.flickr.com/photos/fredspoonphotos/2659621760/

180. and a strong strategy can come from anywhere

181. Our disciplines are even cannibalizing
themselves

182. 5 years ago PPC and
SEO was the hot topic

183. PPC + SE0 = Traffic

185. We send out tweets
to our friends to
find what we want
instead of using a
search engine

186. Or do we?

187. We trust the
recommendations
of friends 75
25Yes
No

188. 2 years ago
75
25Yes
No
Now
55
45Yes
No

189. Whats a friend anymore?

190. A twitter follower?

191. A Facebook friend?

192. Friend doesn't mean what it used to.

193. Of course, our trust isn't
just down from our
friends - its down on
everything

194. So what doest that mean?

195. Where do we go for information?

196. How do organizations spread their message
and engage with audiences?

197. ?

198. There is no one clear answer

199. Thats the point

200. It comes down to strategy

201. It comes down to your market

202. Sometimes its the web

203. Sometimes it isn't

204. Path of Least Resistance

205. If its TV, then they will use TV

206. If its Print, the'll use print

207. If its PPC, SEO, Social, Consumer Generated or
direct - they will do that

208. And if they do
enough of it, they
will just hire the
people with the
expertise to do it

209. But they won't be called "digital"

210. Digital will be absorbed
into other disciplines

211. Social Media expert will cease to be
a phrase and a job title will take its
place

212. Our innovations will become
a list of best practices

213. Execution &
creativityTechnical
knowhow

214. The promise of the
internet was to share
and democratize
knowledge

215. Our trade knowledge
is no exception
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216. But we are not going anywhere

217. http://www.flickr.com/photos/juhansonin/4137915935/
Our industry is
maturing and we are
figuring it all out

218. The hot thing of today...

219. will be the
traditional,
boring “plain
jane” job title
of tomorrow

220. The hierarchy of
web folks will
become
established and
the pecking
order will be set

221. But that doesn't
mean that we will
all be devalued

222. This setup give us the
ability to have stars

223. The internet didn't get rid of the media
gatekeepers like it was supposed to

224. It just created new ones

225. and created niches
for stars to rise

226. we have more gatekeepers, each with a little less
power over the masses, but a great deal over
their niches

227. So what do we do

228. We participate

229. Engage with organizations that are furthering
our industry

230. Engage with other organizations that are not in
our industry, to see how we can help them

231. Study the cycles that have come before
to find ways to integrate, understand
and innovate in our turf

232. Shape the future of our craft

233. Realize that we are all part of a bigger picture
and work to find the best places for our strengths

234. Create specialties &
work to increase our
strengths instead of
waisting time trying to
be a jack of all trades

235. Become leaders for the field that is now ours

236. We are the ambassadors and creators of the
most complex and exciting channel in the history
of man kind.

237. We realize it is just one channel out of many,
but we’ll take the lead of it and own it

238. its our baby

239. Create the future we
want before someone
else does it for us