Presentation of our group's research carried out for the course "Basics of climate change: The science background and implications on technology & business" at Aalto University.

1. CLIMATE CHANGE AND
ECONOMIC
GROWTH
Arttu, Atte, Ekaterina, Régis

2. ECONOMIC
GROWTH
Increase in a country's
productive capacity, measured
by comparing annual gross
domestic product (GDP).
Main causes of economic
growth:
● Increase in capital stock
● Technology advances
● Quality of life
improvements

3. https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdg8

4. The Stern Report, executive summary

5. http://ourfiniteworld.com/2012/10/25/an-economic-theory-
of-limited-oil-supply/comment-page-2/
ECONOMIC GROWTH RATES

6. More consumption
● More used resources
● More pollution
● Direct effect on ecological systems
Current economic growth does not take costs of environment into
account
● Actual growth would be less
● Redefining Progress: Genuine Progress Indicator GPI
ECONOMIC GROWTH AT THE
EXPENSE OF THE CLIMATE

7. ● Population growth vs. living standards
● We want more
● Debt
The U.S. from 1970 – today:
● GDP per capita: +70%
● GPI: +13%
WHY DO WE NEED
ECONOMIC GROWTH?

8. Is economic growth
SUSTAINABLE?

9. A research published in 1972
by Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows,
Jørgen Randers, and William W. Behrens III
(MIT)
for the think tank Club of Rome
with computer simulation program World3
about the consequences of exponential
economic and population growth with finite
resource supplies
LIMITS TO
GROWTH

10. World3 model based on System Dynamics
= the method for analysis of the dynamic behavior
of interconnected complex systems
● various set of parameters (either totals
or averages output per capita)
● feedbacks (+) and (-)
● delays in the signals and respond
● sub-systems
● non-linear relations
● variables:
○ global population
○ crude birth & death rates
○ services, food & industrial output
per capita
○ non-renewable resources
○ pollution (all kind of)
SYSTEM
DYNAMICS

11. in doubling the resources but keeping same usage rate doesn’t double the resource
life but just extend it insignificantly (in this scenario just about on average 130 years)
DOUBLE KNOWN
AVAILABILITY

12. TECHNOLOGY & LIMITS

13. “...Our attempts to use even the most optimistic
estimates of the benefits of technology in the model
did not prevent the ultimate decline of population
and industry, and in fact did not in any case
postpone the collapse beyond the year 2100.”
“We have shown that in the world model the
application of technology to apparent problems of
resource depletion or pollution or food shortage has
no impact on the essential problem, which is
exponential growth in a finite and
complex system...
Limits to Growth 1972
NO “SILVER BULLET”

14. WE ARE HERE TODAY

15. WORLD3 ON
CO2
CONCENTRATION

16. Is the answer
DECOUPLING?

17. This means CO2
emissions fade out and other energy
sources take over
THE CURRENT PLAN

18. Global GHG abatement curve beyond business-as-usual - 2030
TECHNOLOGY

19. BEHAVIOR

20. ● Taxation (carbon tax)
● Legislation
● Subsidies
● Direct investment
● Education
● Internal and international deals
● International action
GOVERNMENTAL SUPPORT TO
LOW CARBON SOLUTIONS,
BEHAVIOR AND INNOVATION

21. NO,
WAIT

22. G8 and OECD material consumption versus GDP

23. Relative changes in total resource use (MF and DMC)
and GDP-PPP-2005 between 1990 and 2008
http://www.pnas.org/content/112/20/6271.full

24. PATHWAYS TO
SUSTAINABILITY

25. DEFINE
PROSPERITY!

26. https://www.equalitytrust.org.uk/spirit-level
REDEFINING PROSPERITY 1:
GROWTH AT
THE BOTTOM

27. REDEFINING PROSPERITY 2:
VALUES
● materialistic values
are as damaging to
the environment as
to people
● status competition
creates “race to the
bottom”

28. REDEFINING PROSPERITY 2:
VALUES ● Resilient Communities
● Cooperatives
● Grassroots Finance
● City Policies
● Community Currencies
● Community Renewable Energy
● Rethinking Home
● Work in the New Economy
http://www.theselc.org/programs

29. REDEFINING PROSPERITY 3:
RELATIVE
WEALTH
https://www.equalitytrust.org.uk

30. THE END
IS NEAR

31. KIITOS