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The City of Resilience

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Advanced Brainstorm Carrefour (ABC): The Science of the City
Naples, March 2016

Presentation by Oto Hudec

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The City of Resilience

  1. 1. City of Resilience Oto Hudec, TUKE, Faculty of Economics, Košice, Slovakia Sometimes I feel like I don't have a partner Sometimes I feel like my only friend It's the city I live in, the City of Angels Lonely as I am, together we cry Red Hot Chili Peppers – Under the Bridge
  2. 2. Content • Resilience people and cities • Global shocks  local resilience, • Typology of risks/threats • Economic resilience, resilience capacity • Resilience, adaptive systems and related terms • Cities of resilience, adaptive planning
  3. 3. Intro: People, cities and resilience • People: Resilience is about lasting, about making it through crises, inner strength and strong physical constitution, • Cities -they too need to last, to respond to crises and adapt in a way that may cause them to change and grow differently; • Cities require an inner strength in people (agility, spirit, ...), as well as a strong physical infrastructure and built environment. * • Resilience of cities is related to its people resilience, although.... In Pompei, year 62, possibly resilient people were at a wrong place. • Cities of fear - decisions based on short-term, even panicked responses; threats seen everywhere • Cities of hope - long term planning, consensus around cooperation and partnership, threats as opportunities * Peter Newman, Timothy Beatley, and Heather Boyer. Resilient cities : responding to peak oil and climate change. 2009
  4. 4. Before the global time • Mt Peleé, St. Pierre, Martinique, 1902. • City officials wanted to keep voters in the city for an election that was to be held on May 11. Based on newspaper articles, many people in the countryside flocked to St. Pierre thinking that it was the safest place to be. The population ballooned to about 28,000, nearly all of which would perish in the cataclysmic eruption of May 8. • Cause: Nature • Local disaster • Result: Today the city is in decay
  5. 5. Tsunami Phi Phi Island, Thailand 2004 • December 26, 2004 tsunami struck the island from two sides, more than 4,000 victims. • Cause: nature, seismic waves, • Local disaster, • Global humanitarian aid. • Today: evacuation plan, risk management, etc. (adaptive capacity strenghtened )
  6. 6. But.. Global threats and local effects • Financial crisis 2007: cost 10-25 trillions 1012 USD • Cause: man-humans - global spread • Today, higher regulation of the financial sector, monitoring, preventive measures, warning systems, etc. • If there is resilience and vulnerability, must be also economic resilience and economic vulnerability Unemployment rate Slovakia Far from the NYSE and Lehman Brothers
  7. 7. Resilience capacity* *Developed by Kathryn A. Foster, the University of California, Berkeley.
  8. 8. Economic resilience * Pendall, R., Foster, K. A. and Cowell, M. (2010) Resilience and Regions: Building Understanding of the Metaphor. Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society Product or employment • Regional growth in output and population or rates of unemployment, poverty or labour force participation can be considered at least partly equilibrium phenomena.* • Economic resilience is the ability to anticipate, prepare for, respond to, and recover from a disturbance. • The resistance of a system to disturbances and the speed of return to its pre-shock state (equilibrium)
  9. 9. -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 Resilience capacity Economic vulnerability Slovakia West of the country: higher resilience capacity and at the same time higher relative change in the unemployment – vulnerability to global economic shocks closer to the European economic core and export oriented (Volkswagen, KIA , Peugeot, IBM, DHL, Hewlett Packard, Samsung, etc.) Hudec, O., Reggiani, A., Šiserová, M.: Resilience Capacity and Vulnerability: The Case of Slovakia, submitted to Region.
  10. 10. Economic vulnerability: unemployment rate Unemployment rate Slovakia Unemployment rate Bratislava and Slovakia
  11. 11. The same with Adaptation to Climate Change Global shocks  local resilience • Climate change adaptation - an incentive for a real change in a way to sustainability? • Uncertainty in speed and scale of impact, • Causal linkages between global effects and everyday life are not visible, • Socio-ecological systems – to puzzle out climate change and to adapt is a critical challenge of our time, and will drastically modify the way our societies function. • Global risks and their typology:
  12. 12. Likehood and impact of global threats World Economic Forum 2014
  13. 13. Interconnections between the risks World Economic forum, 2014
  14. 14. Increasing complexity • Complexity.. Black swans, Butterfly effects: the wave of small butterfly wings somewhere on one side of the globe can cause drastic impact somewhere (Edward Lorenz, MIT, 1963) • Geographical space is one of the playgrounds for complex dynamics ... dynamic phenomena have one feature in common: the low predictability of uncertain interrelated events occurring at different interconnected spatio-temporal scale levels and often originating from different disciplinary backgrounds.* • But local reactions: nature and society attempts to self-organise in a chaotic world and there is a tendency towards a state of balance (equilibria). • Also, cities, social-ecological systems are getting more complex. • M. Batty: to understand cities, we must view them not simply as places in space but as systems of networks and flows. ** * Reggiani, A., Nijkamp, eds. P. Complexity and Spatial Networks: In Search of Simplicity, Springer, 2009 ** Batty, M. The new science of cities, Cambridge, The MIT Press, 2013
  15. 15. How to think about future? Not everything is a black swan and not always there is a second serve possibility slow-moving risks and disturbances and rapid, extreme events
  16. 16. The Resilience Inference Measurement (RIM) Model (Dept. of Environmental Sciences Louisiana State University) and many other models. Exposure. Vulnerability, Adaptability, mitigation to damages – several possibilities for measures.
  17. 17. Different approaches to resilience * Hassler U., Kohler N. (2014) Resilience in the built environment, Building Research & Information, 42:2, 119-129 Resilience was an implicit part of traditional construction knowledge - oversizing of components and spaces, redundancy and reparability were forms of tacit construction knowledge (Schön, 1983). Different context of resilience: individual, physical system – material, ecological system, social systems, economic system, disaster risk management,... Multidisciplinarity: built environment as social-ecological system, includes manmade building and infrastructure stocks that constitute the physical, natural, economic, social and cultural capital.*
  18. 18. The Three Main Definitions of Resilience across various disciplines Definition/Type Interpretation Main Fields of Use 1 Resilience as ‘bounce back’ from shocks System returns, ‘rebounds’, to preshock state or path: emphasizes speed and extent of recovery. So-called ‘engineering resilience’, found in physical sciences, some versions of ecology; similar to ‘selfrestoring equilibrium dynamics’ in mainstream economics? 2 Resilience as ‘ability to absorb’ shocks Emphasises stability of system structure, function and identity in the face of shocks“.. the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and reorganize while undergoing change so as to still retain essentially the same function, structure, identity and feedbacks. So-called ‘extended ecological resilience’, found in ecology and social ecology; similar to multiple equilibrium economics? Too strong shock can change economic structures, no return to preshock state or path - pushed to a new equilibrium state or path: the effect of the shock is permanent - there is a memory of the shock and hysteresis may occurre. 3 Resilience as ‘positive adaptability’ in anticipation of, or in response to, shocks Capacity of a system to maintain core performances despite shocks by adapting its structure, functions and organization. Idea of ‘bounce forward’ instead of bounce back, adaptive resilience. Found in psychological sciences (individuals) and organisational theory; capacity to undergo successful change in structures, functions and behaviour; measures to minimise the impact of any future reoccurrence of a shock. can be linked with evolutionary economics? CAS: complex adaptive systems theory - modularity and redundancy Martin, R., Sunley, P: On the notion of regional economic resilience: conceptualization and explanation, J Econ Geogr, 2014.
  19. 19. 4 basic possible reactions Y – regional product or employment Hosp. pokles (a) Hosp. pokles (b) Hosp. pokles (c) Hosp. pokles (d) Produktnebozamestnanosť Martin, R., Sunley, P: On the notion of regional economic resilience: conceptualization and explanation, J Econ Geogr, 2014.
  20. 20. Positive adaptability - robustness and economics • Modularity - a system structure which component subsystems or elements are only partially or weakly connected or linked... if one subsystem or element is affected by a shock, the effect remains relatively contained and its diffusion throughout the whole system is minimised. • Although one module of a system may lack resilience, the system as whole display robustness in the face of shocks. • Robustness is higher if the failure of one module can be compensated by others - redundancy : there are identical or similar components or subsystems (modules) which can replace each other when one fails. • Hard to translate it to social-economic systems, but an attention to issues such as structural diversity, relational networks, related variety, supply chains, food security, etc. • And there is a question of self-organising and/or design of systems. How to balance the perfect system design with self-organising dynamics?
  21. 21. Environment – sustainability – resilience • Holling (1973) - the first definition: that is a measure of the persistence of systems and of their ability to absorb change and disturbance and still maintain the same relationships between populations or state variables (Holling, Resilience and Stability of Ecological Systems, 1973). • Theoretical challenge of urban resilience to develop a multidisciplinary theory that integrates a variety of urban dimensions such as social, economic, cultural, environmental, spatial and physical infrastructure, into a unified conceptual framework for understanding the resilience of cities and how they should move towards a more resilient state. • SHIFT OF CONCEPTS Local Environment protection Sustainability Resilience static systemic, linear or circular processes of growth dynamic - adaptation added, networks, self-renewal and survival, to prepare for the un-projectable, the impossible-to-imagine
  22. 22. Resilience concept, sustainability and planning • SHIFT: Sustainability can be made, but resilience happens ... and than we need to trust the system we created to maintain its elements and functions. • RESILIENCE MEANS PLANNING THE FUTURE IN UNCERTAINTY • Planning and uncertainty – not a best friends. • Strategic concept of resilience: approaches from short-term (re-)action to long-term strategy, from sectorial or individual competition to collaboration* • Resilient systems are defined in contrast to vulnerable systems where, in the wake of exposure to external stresses, places and/or systems suffer irreparable and irreversible damage. * Stumpp E-M: New in town? On resilience and ‘‘Resilient Cities’’. Cities 32 (2013) 164–166
  23. 23. Adaptive capacity Schröter et al. (2004).
  24. 24. Resilient city planning framework Y. Jabareen: Planning the resilient city: Concepts and strategies for coping with climate change and environmental risk Cities 31 (2013) 220–229
  25. 25. Governance capacities • We do have a lack in institutions for flexible collaboration across scales (regions, cities, neighbourhoods, infrastructure stocks). • Land, strategic, crisis management and planning – different worlds, goverments and self-government, sectors and territories, • Identification and control of inter-scalar processes. • Operational system: clear directions for institutions influencing adaptive capacity and resilience allowing to coping with uncertainty and surprise. • The concept of resilience as a chance to address the long-term evolution of the built environment and to combine different approaches to planning, design, operation, management, value and governance
  26. 26. Resilient city – City of resilience • Resilient cities have built-in systems - built to adapt to change - a diversity of transport and land-use systems, multiple sources of renewable power.* • Basic question for resilience: reaction to future (external) shock – what happens to city under extreme stress. • No „laboratories“ could exist to test the reactions, only previous examples e.g in hazards (New Orleans, Phi Phi Island, Fukushima,...) • divided city scenario - Detroit, Liverpool – resilient example,.. • resilient city scenario as necessity – CAS: modularity, redundancy - eco- friendly, alternative forms of fuel, green, walkable centres, polycentric, distributed – small scale systems, place-based. • „Europe needs self-confident, resilient and sustainable regions and cities.“** * Gehl J. et al., New City Life (Copenhagen: Danish Architectural Press, 2006). ** Opinion of the European economic and social Committee, European Parliament, 2009.
  27. 27. • From 2 million to 700 thousand population • From Fordism to post-fordism • (modern ) times they are changin' Detroit
  28. 28. o Rockefeller Foundation: o Stresses: high unemployment; an overtaxed or inefficient public transportation system; endemic violence; chronic food and water shortages. o How -by addressing both the shocks and the stresses, City government, robust resilience strategy, access to solutions, networking public, private, NGO and other resilient cities o Extensive research has shown that resilient cities demonstrate seven qualities: • Reflectiveness • Resourcefulness • Robustness • Redundancy • Flexibility • Inclusiveness • Integration
  29. 29. Conclusions, overlaps, many questions • Multidisciplinarity as a challenge to analyse and operationalise, • RESILIENCE as redundancy, modularity, diversity in agents (components) or connections, • Urban planning – a change to adaptive strategic planning, • Human Social System - close to comunity, organisation, social capital, endogeneous concepts, LED, • Resources, physical built in system – close to smart cities, • COST of resilience: Resilience and robustness are abstract, very costly public goods, • Trade-off between well designed and self-organisation, • Thank you for your attention, please answer the questions

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