1. The Decline of Power:
A complex problem of
multiple scales
Luis CASASUS
Polytechnic University of
Madrid,Spain
Rielo Institute for Integral
Development
Monday November 4th2013
United Nations, New York

2. Thesis:
We show how Decline of Power can be
explained or at least illustrated by the
interplay between Influence and Power
leading to the appearance of new actors in
the various scales of decision-making and
power-holding.
.
A simple nonlinear model is proposed to
analyze this process from the viewpoint of
complexity.

3. Outline of the Presentation
1. What is power?
2. Decline of Power according to
Moisés Naím and other authors.
3. An interpretation and a
quantitative model.
4. Conclusions.

4. 1. What is power?
*Power is an important and elusive concept.
Difficult conceptualization and measurement.
*Alvin Toffler: violence, wealth and
knowledge.
*Keith Dowding: outcome and social power.
*Hard power and soft power.
*Who is the power holder? Individual, group,
political party,…

5. 1. What is power?
Power is the ability to act or the ability to
get someone to do something you want done.
Power is the ability to direct or prevent the
current of future actions of other groups or
individuals.
Influence is the ability to affect the
behaviors of others in a particular direction.
Power
is the potential or capacity to
influence.

6. Outline of the Presentation
1. What is power?
2. Decline of Power according to
Moisés Naím and other authors.
3. An interpretation and a
quantitative model.
4. Conclusions.

7. 2. Decline of Power according to
Moisés Naím and other authors.
According to Naím, Power operates through
four channels:
Muscle + Code + Pitch + Reward
Coertion Moral Obligation Persuasion

8. 2. Decline of Power according to
Moisés Naím and other authors.
According to Naím, Power operates through
four channels:
Muscle + Code + Pitch + Reward
And three revolutions seek to reduce the
barriers that protect those channels:
More + Mobility + Mentality

10. Outline of the Presentation
1. What is power?
2. Decline of Power according to
Moisés Naím and other authors.
3. An interpretation and a
quantitative model.
4. Conclusions.

11. 3. An interpretation and a
quantitative model.
Probably, the main contribution of Naím is his
clever analysis of the effects of the three
revolutions. And possibly the main work is left
to do: How do we positively manage More +
Mobility + Mentality?
Complexity of the individual is awesome and a
reliable model of person is necessary to bring
about a better understanding of Mentality
revolution, including spiritual, educational and
family factors. This is one of the goals of
RIID.

12. 3. An interpretation and a
quantitative model.
-Quantitative modelsMany different approaches:
Phase Plane
Probability Theory
Theory of Games
Network Analysis
Graph Theory…

13. 3. An interpretation and a quantitative model.
The Social Phase Plane (Wang & Jiang, 2013)
represents the comprehensive national power
model with time delays.
Social development region, Social turbulence
region and Social collapse Region can be seen.
Development

14. 3. An interpretation and a
quantitative model.
Note that the three revolutions
More + Mobility + Mentality
represent properties of micro-agents and
this naturally leads to a multiscale approach:
Properties of micro-agents
Properties of groups

15. 3. An interpretation and a
quantitative model.
We now derive a family of models taking
into account the evolution of both
Influence and Power.
Each point (x,y) of
the plane represents a
micro-agent. Power of
a group is represented
as a “hill” on the
plane. Thus we follow
a multiscale approach.

16. 3. An interpretation and a
quantitative model.
These models are: reactive-diffusive,
nonlinear, and time-dependent.
Diffusion
Reaction +
Diffusion

17. 3. An interpretation and a
quantitative model.

18. 3. An interpretation and a
quantitative model.

19. 3. An interpretation and a
quantitative model.

20. 3. An interpretation and a
quantitative model.
*The effect of barriers is represented
in the coefficients a, b, c,d and e and
possibly in their dependence of time.
*The effect of influence is mainly
repressive.
*This model does not distinguish
between the four channels of Power.
*Has the total power a constant value?
*How it disappears?

21. 3. An interpretation and a
quantitative model.
Dependence of initial conditions.
Dependence of boundary conditions.
Dr. Colasanti’s question: The Decline of
Power: a Symptom of a Growing Disease or
a Sign of Transformation?...
A (necessarily) modest and prudent
answer:

22. 3. An interpretation and a
quantitative model.
It really depends on the
coefficients!
And coefficients in turn depend on
our model of Person and a suitable
concept for Power.

23. 3. An interpretation and a
quantitative model.
Some simulations
1/4
The big fish eats the small fish…at least for now

24. 3. An interpretation and a
quantitative model.
Some simulations
2/4
1.4
1
1.4
0.9
1.2
1.2
0.8
1
1
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0
0
50
50
0
50
40
40
40
30
30
30
20
20
20
10
10
10
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
0
0
10
20
30
40
Two gangs share the cake…a third one is not allowed
50

25. 3. An interpretation and a
quantitative model.
Some simulations
5
3/4
4
4.5
3.5
4
3
3.5
3
2.5
2.5
2
2
1.5
1.5
1
1
0.5
0.5
0
50
0
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
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35
40
45
50
0
0
5
10
15
Few people with great power …
and many people with some power
20
25
30
35
40
45
50

26. 3. An interpretation and a
quantitative model.
Some simulations
4/4
4
6
3.5
5
3
2.5
4
2
3
50
2
1.5
40
60
1
30
1
20
10
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0
45
50
40
0.5
20
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Three “clusters” of Power interacting
40
45
0
50

27. Outline of the Presentation
1. What is power?
2. Decline of Power according to
Moisés Naím and other authors.
3. An interpretation and a
quantitative model.
4. Conclusions.

28. 4. Conclusions
Naím’s book is full of illustrative examples
suggesting the plausibility of his arguments
regarding a possible End of Power.
One of the fascinating issues is the subtle
interdependence of the changing (emerging,
disappearing,…) subjects of Power at
different scales of size and time. This has
been partly reflected in our simple model.

29. Thank you! luis.casasus@upm.es