More Related Content Similar to The top 10 strategic technology trends for 2019. (20) More from Paulo Ratinecas (20) The top 10 strategic technology trends for 2019.1. © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates. This publication may not be reproduced or distributed in any form
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David Cearley
Distinguished VP & Gartner Fellow
The Top 10 Strategic Technology
Trends for 2019
14 – 18 October 2018 / Orlando, FL
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Intelligent Digital Mesh
Technology Is an Inextricable Part of Our World
3. 2 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates.
“Welcome to the era
of ContinuousNEXT
where your organization
can foster perpetual
innovation, integration
and delivery”
Mike Harris
Technologies Evolve and Interact to Create the Future
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Autonomous Things
By 2021
10% of new vehicles
will have autonomous
driving capability,
compared with less
than 1% in 2017.
1
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A Framework for Assessing Autonomous Things
Types:
Vehicles Drones AppliancesRobotics Agents
Capability Coordination Intelligence
With Varying Levels of:
Applied Across All Environments:
Sea Land Air Digital
1
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Autonomous Things With Varying Levels
Capability Coordination Intelligence
Human-Assisted
Partial Automation
Conditional Automation
High Automation
Full Autonomy
Isolated
Independent
Connected
Collaborative (Swarms)
Dumb and Static
Semismart and Dynamic
Individually Smart
and Dynamic
Collectively Smart With
Dynamic Hive Interaction
1
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1
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Augmented Analytics
Through 2020, the
number of citizen data
scientists will grow
five times faster than
the number of expert
data scientists.
2
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Augmented Analytics
Visual-Based Data
Discovery Platforms
Semantic Layer-
Based Platforms
The Future of Analytics Is ‘Augmented Analytics’
Low
High
Months Days/Hours Instant/Near Real-Time
Time to Advanced Insight
PervasivenessofAI
2
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Automated Data Science to Assist Business Users
Citizen
Data
Scientist
AI Data Preparation:
Algorithms detect schemas, profile, catalog
Determine data lineage, metadata and
recommend enrichment
AI Insight Generation:
Natural language query
Algorithms find relevant patterns
Features and models autoselected
Code is autogenerated
AI Human Assistance:
Natural language narrated insights
Autogenerated visualizations
Results embedded in apps
2
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Finding Unknown Correlations for Crop Yield —
in Seconds
Source: SparkBeyond
2
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Gartner 2018
AI-Driven Development
By 2022
At least 40% of new
application development
projects will have artificial
intelligence co-developers
on their team.
3
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Exploiting AI in the Development Process 3
AI Services*
Vision and
Image
Speech &
Language
Knowledge Empathy
Custom
Models
Conversation
AI Platforms
Amazon Machine
Learning
Microsoft Azure
Machine Learning
Google Cloud
Machine Learning
Engine
IBM Watson
AI Frameworks TensorFlow Torch Theano
Apache
MXNet
Deeplearning4j scikit-learn
AI Infrastructure AWS Lambda
IBM
Cloud Functions
Google Cloud
Platform
Microsoft
Azure AI
*(Specific Vendor Services Vary)
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Technical Knowledge Expertise/Autonomy
Applying AI to the Development Process 3
Virtual
Biz Analyst 2022+
Virtual
Data Scientist 2018+
Virtual
Architect 2023+
Virtual
Software Engineer
2020+Virtual Intern
2018+
Virtual QA Tester
2019+
Virtual Solution
Architect & Developer 2025+?
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Gartner 2018
Digital Twin
24% of Enterprises
Implementing IoT
Projects Are Using
Digital Twins
Asset Data
Operational Data
Context Data
Operational Data
Local Model
Control
Models, Data, Monitor,
Analysis, Simulation
4
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Digital Twins Drive Digital Business Opportunities
Maintenance and reliability*
Business process/Asset optimization
Monetization of data, models
Research and development
New business models
*Maintenance and Reliability Ranked No. 1 and 2
Source: “Survey Analysis: Progressing to a Digital Business Future Through IT/OT Transformation,” (G00292443)
4
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Beyond Digital Twins of Things
Digital Twin of an organization is a dynamic
software model of any organization that relies
on operational and/or other data to understand
its state, respond to changes, improve
operations and add value.
It includes a combination of …
Metadata
Situation
Analytics
Models
Event Data
4
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Digital Twins of People and Places + Process and Things 4
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Empowered Edge
Storage, computing
and advanced AI and
analytics capabilities
will expand the
capabilities of edge
devices through 2028
5
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Empowered Edge
Data
Center
Enterprise
Connected
Edge
Device
Edge
Svr. or
Gateway
Remote
Local Edge
Device
Cloud
Connected
Central
Cloud
Cloud
Architected
Central
Cloud
Edge
Cloud
Distributed
Cloud
Edge
Device
Isolated
5
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Intelligence and More at the Edge
Typical
Asset Life
Asset Type
Capabilities
Extending Asset
(Current Focus
vs. Future Addition)
Edge Computers
Mobile
Notebook*
PC
Printers
Scanners
1 to 5 years
Local compute,
storage moving to add
specialized AI chips
and more sensors
Edge I/O
Speakers*
Screens
Cameras
Sensors
Light Bulbs
3 to 10 years
Simple I/O focused
“dumb” devices
moving to add sensors
and local compute and
storage
Complex Embedded
Edge
Automobiles
Tractors, Cranes
Drones
Ships
Locomotives
3 to 20 years
Complex devices with
many existing
computing elements
adding functionality
and creating a local
“network” at the edge
Simple Embedded
Edge
Industrial equipment
Consumer
electronics
Appliances
5 to 20 — consumer
10 to 40 — industrial
Devices with sensors
and actuators moving
to add local compute
and storage and
more advanced
sensors
5
The edge has many parts with different lifecycles creating complex and ongoing
management and integration challenges
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Connecting the Edge With 5G 5
Starts in 2019 and matures in 5 to 6 Years
Faster Speed Lower Latency Greater Density
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Immersive Experience
By 2022
70% of enterprises will
be experimenting with
immersive technologies for
consumer and enterprise
use, and 25% will have
deployed to production
6
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Humans Learn and Adapt to Technology Technology Learns and Adapts to Humans
Human System System Human
Shifting the UI
Flipping the Interaction Model 6
Complexity
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How We Perceive the Virtual World Is Changing
Training & Simulation Sales & DemosMarketing
Design Visualization WorkspaceField Service
6
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How We Interact With the Digital World Is Changing
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Voice
6
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How We Interact With the Digital World Is Changing
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Eye
Tracking
Position
Tracking
Many
more…
Voice
Gesture
Emotion
6
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MultimodalMultichannel
Visual
Auditory
Smell
Heat/
Humidity
Location
Taste
Human Senses
and
Super Human Senses
Touch
And More
People Will Demand
Multiexperience
6
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Virtual, Augmented and Mixed Reality
Perception and interaction with services
Starts with visual and tactile
Content-focused
2024 20292019
The Environment Around You Is the Computer
Conversational Platform
Access and control services
Starts with language
Action-focused
Targeted Solutions — Isolated UX as a Feature
Immersive, Ambient User Experience
Contextual perception and interaction
Multiple sensory channels and device modes
Continuous, stateful across services and environments
Facilitates human and machine collaboration
Invisible, transparent and natural
Mesh Solutions — Fluid UX Across Systems
6
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Blockchain
Blockchain Will
Create $3.1T in
Business Value
by 2030
7
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Optional Characteristics
Smart Contracts
Centralized Management
Controlled Access/Update
Alternative Consensus
Mechanism
The Blockchain Ledger
Shared, Tokenized, Digitized
Decentralized and Distributed
Immutable, Traceable Record
Consensus Mechanisms
What Does Blockchain Offer? 7
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Public BCPre-BC Public, Private, Hybrid, Consortia BC Programmable Economy Based on BC
2009 2012 2016 2020 2022 2025
BC Enabling
BC Phase 2: Inspired
BC Phase 3: Complete
BC Phase 4: Enhanced
BC Phase 1: Testing
Blockchain Exists Across a Spectrum of Capabilities
2018
7
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Example Blockchain Value Propositions
Blockchain
Disruptor
Permissionless
Marketplaces
Efficiency
Play
TradeLens
Shipping
Record
Keeper
e-Health Record
Digital Asset
Market
Digital Gold
7
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Smart Spaces
Smart spaces are physical
or digital environments
populated by humans
and enabled by technology
which are increasingly
connected, intelligent
and autonomous.
8
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Smart Spaces Maturity Model
Open
Connected
Coordinated
Intelligent
Ecosystem
Phase 4
Intelligent
Environments
8
Open Externally
Connected
Coordinated
Semi-Intelligent
Organization
Phase 3
Coordinated
Systems
Open Internally
Connected
Integrated
Not Intelligent
Department
Phase 2
Connected
Systems
Closed
Not Connected
Not Coordinated
Not Intelligent
Team
Phase 1
Isolated
Systems
Openness:
Connectedness:
Coordination:
Intelligence:
Scope:
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Smart Spaces — The Connected Factory and
Digital Supply Chains
Vertical and Horizontal Integration Are Needed
Process Granularity
Performance
Partner
Partner
Partner
Partner
Partner
Partner
Partner
Partner
Partner
External IoT
Production
Plan Source Deliver Service
8
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Smart Spaces — Smart Cities 8
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Hype Cycle for Privacy, 2018
Digital Ethics and Privacy
By 2021
organizations that bought
compliance risk and are
caught lacking in privacy
protection will pay 100%
more in compliance cost
than best-practice-adhering
competitors.
9
39. 38 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates.
GPS
Cell Tracking
Licence Plate
Readers
IP Address
Facial Recognition
Building Security
Search engines
Social Networks
Super Cookies
Smart Speaker
email
(Section 702)
Facial Recognition
Voice Recognition
DNA
Iris
Fingerprint
Billions of Endpoints Are Collecting Information
Activity
Heartrate
Respiration
Sleep
Blood Pressure
Blood Sugar
Driving Habits
Where You Are What You ThinkWho You Are What You Do
9
40. The Evolving
Patchwork of
Privacy Laws
Comprehensive Data Protection Law Enacted
Pending Bill or Initiative to Enact Law
No Initiatives or No InformationDavid Banisar
January 2018
9
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Move From Compliance-Driven to Ethics-Driven to
Discern ‘Right’ From ‘Wrong’ and to Create Value
Values: Ultimately, there is only one
question left: What do I believe myself is
the right thing to do? “It may be possible,
it may be allowed, but do we want it?”
Difference: Is digital ethics part of our
value proposition? Can we make a
difference?
Risk: Is there reputation risk, or are we
harming others?
Compliance: Are we breaking any rules?
Hierarchy of Intent
Internally
driven
(achievement)
Externally
driven
(avoidance) Mind compliance
Mitigate risk
Make a difference
Follow your values
9
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Quantum Computing
By 2023
20% of organizations
will be budgeting for
quantum computing
projects compared
to less than 1% today.
10
43. 42 © 2018 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. and its affiliates.
What Is Quantum Computing?
Quantum computing is a type of
nonclassical computing that is based
on the quantum state of subatomic
particles. The state of the particles
represents information, expressed
in single elements known as qubits.
Key terms:
Qubits
Superposition
Entanglement
Decoherence
10
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Quantum Computing — Key Use Cases
Postquantum
Cryptography
1
Optimization
Problems
2
Material
Science
3
Chemistry
4
Personalized
Medicine
5
Biomimetics
Key
Applications*
*In order of complexity
10
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Qubit Timeline Estimates
2000+
1000
50
LogicalQubits
2018 2023 2028 2038
Transient
Quantum
Supremacy
Quantum Advantage
Meaningful Work
QML Impact
to AI
Greater Business
Use Cases
500
Postquantum
Cryptography
Financial Services
Begins to Leverage QC
RSA/EC
Not Used for PKI
Crypto-Agility
Becomes Important
Decoherence
Errors
All Historical
RSA Encryption
Can Be Cracked?
300
100M+
MillionsofPhysicalQubits
Note: Dates are speculative
10
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Intelligent Digital Mesh
Augmented Analytics Empowered Edge
Autonomous Things Digital Twin
AI-Driven Development Immersive Experience
Blockchain
Smart Spaces
Quantum Computing
Privacy and Ethics