What are the limits of growth on the Earth? Can we increase our prosperity while saving out planet? Ramez Naam argues that knowledge is our ultimate resource, innovation our ultimate creator of prosperity. With examples across agriculture, energy, water, and more, Naam argues that we have tremendous headroom to grow prosperity, IF we make the right choices in aligning that growth with the best interests of our world as a whole.
2. It was the best of times, It was the worst of times
3. It was the age of wisdom, It was the age of foolishness, It was the spring of hope, It was the winter of despair, We had everythingbefore us, We had nothingbefore us.
69. KNOWLEDGE: ULTIMATE RESOURCE INFINITELY RE-USABLE GROWS RATHER THAN BEING DEPLETED NON-RIVAL REDUCES NEED FOR OR MULTIPLIES VALUE OF: Energy, Materials, Land, Labor, Time All Physical Resource
71. EXAMPLE : FOOD PRODUCTION FIRST & MOST IMPORTANT ENERGY TECHNOLOGY HISTORY HAS SHOWN: More Food Per Unit Land (via Innovation) Reduced Ecological Footprint Per Person
77. Earliest Scratch Farming 1 ,000,000 m^2 / person Hunter Gatherer Societies~10,000,000 m^2 / person Irrigated Farming: 26,000 m^2 Roman Empire: 13,000 m^2 Late Middle Ages: 8,500 m^2 US Farming in 1900: 6,000 m^2 US Farming in 1960: 2,800 m^2 US Farming in 2000: 1,200 m^2
115. PHOTOSYNTHETIC LIMIT OF FOOD IS VAST 1200 m^2 / person on earth with best farming today 31 m^2 / person at 13% efficiency(with an American diet) 6 m^2 / person at 13% efficiency(with a vegetarian diet)
116. RETURNING LAND TO NATURE Increased Yields = Less Land Per Person Population Will Peak at < 10 Billion Opportunity: Return Millions of km^2 to Forest
120. INCREDIBLE GROWTH IS POSSIBLE Natural Resources are Huge: Energy Water Food Limits Materials Innovation Can Tap Into Them with Less and Less Impact on the World
123. MARKET ECONOMICS The “Software” That Runs Our Society Incredibly Successful Has Outcompeted All Other Systems Aligns Individual Incentives with Overall Desires Rewards Innovation A Darwinian Ecosystem For New Ideas But One Key Bug…
125. EXTERNALITY THINGS WE CARE ABOUT THINGS THE MARKET CAN MANAGE(THINGS WITH PRICES, OWNERS, BUYERS, SELLERS)
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130. EXTERNALITY THINGS WE CARE ABOUT THINGS THE MARKET CAN MANAGE(A WIDER VARIETY THAN TODAY) THINGS THE MARKET CAN MANAGE(THINGS WITH PRICES, OWNERS, BUYERS, SELLERS)
132. A CARBON TAX Creates Incentives for: Conservation & Efficiency Alternative Energy Use and R&D Sequestration of Carbon from Atmosphere
133. WHAT WOULD IT COST? ENOUGH TO HIT A TIPPING POINT Cheaper to Pull Carbon From the Air than the Ground Cheaper to Build Solar than Coal Immediately Cheap Enough We Could Remedy Externalities
134. WHAT WOULD IT COST? $50 - $100 / Ton of CO2e = $.50 - $1.00 / gallon of gasoline $.05 - $.10 / kilowatt hour of coal electricity Phased in Over 10 Years
152. For More Like This, Click Below:Follow @Ramez on TwitterVisit unbridledspeculation.comContact mez@morethanhuman.org
Hinweis der Redaktion
Charles Dickens – A Tale of Two Cities
Plankton are near the bottom of the food chain.Corals are responsible for 50% of ocean biodiversity.
Reefs are responsible for about half of ocean biodiversity.
Plenty of fish in the sea.
Fish catch has stopped rising.
Average American uses 1600 cubic meters of water per year.A cube 40’ on a side.
Aral Sea spans Uzbekistan and Kazakstan: 1989-2003
Aral Sea, 2009. Source: National Geographic
Olagalla Aquifer
Endangered species. As a computer scientist I see this as a loss of information with no backup.
Extinction rate – log scale.
Consider that today’s Trade-To-Defense Spending Ratio is about 5 in the US, and more than 10 worldwide. There is far more to be gained by cooperating with others than by trying to take things from them.
World-wide grain yield, in tons per hectare, from 1960 through 2010. Graph drawn from data obtained from http://www.earth-policy.org/datacenter/pdf/book_wote_crops.pdf and ultimately from U.S. Department of Agriculture, Production, Supply and Distribution , electronic database, at www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline, updated 12 August 2010.
Labor Price of Light in work hours per 1,000 Lumen Hours
http://solarenergyfactsblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/solar-energy-to-power-world.jpgLooks accurate at about 20%.
Cyanobacteria (blue green algae) for fuels. 3.5 B years old. Genetic modification to produce variants that produce ethanol, oil, or even hydrogen gas.Source:http://www.ecofriendlymag.com/sustainable-transporation-and-alternative-fuel/the-big-boys-of-industry-move-into-next-generation-algae-fuels/
Proposed Algae Biofuel facility in Arizona. Doesn’t compete with food crops. Can use very brackish water not suitable for irrigation. Sucks CO2 out of the atmosphere.
DARPA: Beginning production of biofuel from algae in 2013. Projected price of under $5 / gallon. Part of the goal is to be able to grow fuel in forward areas.
Fresh water is an energy problem. We use a tiny tiny fraction of all water on the planet. Saltwater + energy, can be fresh water.Desalination = 0.77 kwh per cubic meter.Americans use 1600 cubic meters per capita per year.For 9 B people, would be 11 Trillion Kw Hours3 KilaMega9 Giga12 Tera15 Peta= 1.1 * 10^16 watt hoursSun delivers 350,000,000 * 10^12 = 3.5 * 10^20Current Energy Usage = 150,000 Twhours / year = 1.5 x 10^17
What about food?
So what about food? Can we further increase food production? C3 Crops: Wheat, rice, potatoes, barley.C4 Crops: maize, sugar cane, millet, and sorghumCurrent photosynthetic efficiency of C3 and C4 plants. Source: 10.1146/annurev-arplant-042809-112206
Theoretical max efficiency is 13%. Per James Bolton and David Hall. Must stress that we don’t know how to biologically design a system that reaches this efficiency. But that is what a perfect biotech could achieve with photosynthesis.Current photosynthetic efficiency of C3 and C4 plants. Source: 10.1146/annurev-arplant-042809-112206THE MAXIMUM EFFICIENCY OF PHOTOSYNTHESIS, JAMES R. BOLTON’? and DAVID O. HALL, Photochemistry und Photobiology Vol. 53, No. 4. pp. 545-548, 1991
GM Salmon from a company called Aquabounty, have genes inserted from a “pout fish”, grow about 50% faster than normal Salmon, fewer calories consumed vs. calories delivered. Could be our first genetically modified food animal.
Reefs are responsible for about half of ocean biodiversity.