What are the limits of growth on the Earth? Can we increase our prosperity while saving out planet? Ramez Naam argues that knowledge is our ultimate resource, innovation our ultimate creator of prosperity. With examples across agriculture, energy, water, and more, Naam argues that we have tremendous headroom to grow prosperity, IF we make the right choices in aligning that growth with the best interests of our world as a whole.

1. The Infinite ResourceGrowing Prosperity on a Finite Planet Ramez Naam@ramez

2. It was the best of times, It was the worst of times

3. It was the age of wisdom, It was the age of foolishness, It was the spring of hope, It was the winter of despair, We had everythingbefore us, We had nothingbefore us.

4. Unprecedented Prosperity Unprecedented Opportunity Unprecedented Risk

5. Possible to Prosper Like Never Before With LESS Negative Impact Possible != Assured Important Changes Needed

6. Best of times

7. Population

8. LONGER LIVES

9. LESS POVERTY

10. MORE FOOD PER PERSON

11. FEWER MALNOURISHED

12. More Access to Electricity

13. RISING EDUCATION

14. DROPPING ILLITERACY

15. HIGHER LITERACY

16. HIGHER HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX

17. MORE DEMOCRACY

18. GREATER EQUALITY

19. GREATER EQUALITY

20. Worst of times

21. Welcome to the Anthropocene

29. ACIDIFICATION HITS THE BOTTOM OF THE FOOD CHAIN

30. HIGH ACIDIFICATION WOULD WIPE OUT CORALS

32. Fish Stocks Crashed or Overexploited

33. Depleted Fisheries

34. Fish Tons Per Unit Effort

41. Species Loss

43. Peak Oil: Projections

46. PROSPERITY BUILT ON OVERCONSUMPTION

47. SOME SAY: GROWTH MUST STOP

51. Halting growth has a cost

53. RAISING GLOBAL HEALTH REQUIRES GROWING ENERGY AND ECONOMIES

55. TODAY GLOBAL TRADE $ ARE 10x GLOBAL MILITARY $ US TRADE $ ARE 5x US MILITARY $ CHINA, US, EU, INDIA, CAN ALL GROW SIMULTANEOUSLY

56. IN A ZERO SUM WORLD ONE NATION’S GAIN IS ANOTHER’S LOSS WAR BECOMES MORE PROFITABLE THAN TRADE NATIONS WILL FIGHT OVER SCRAPS  NOT WHAT WE WANT

57. FORTUNATELY…

58. Not new predictions

60. THE POPULATION BOMB “The war to feed humanity is over… Billions will die” MASSIVE FAMINES PREDICTED FOR 1970s

62. THE LIMITS TO GROWTH (1972) MASSIVE ECONOMIC AND POPULATION COLLAPSE PREDICTED FOR 1992

64. THOMAS MALTHUS PREDICTED MASSIVE FAMINE AND DIE-OFF FOR THE 1800s

65. ALL THESE PREDICTIONS WERE WRONG

66. MISSING INGREDIENT

67. INNOVATION

68. GROWTH IN USEFUL KNOWLEDGE

69. KNOWLEDGE: ULTIMATE RESOURCE INFINITELY RE-USABLE GROWS RATHER THAN BEING DEPLETED NON-RIVAL REDUCES NEED FOR OR MULTIPLIES VALUE OF: Energy, Materials, Land, Labor, Time All Physical Resource

70. OUTPUT = INPUTS x KNOWLEDGE MULTIPLIER

71. EXAMPLE : FOOD PRODUCTION FIRST & MOST IMPORTANT ENERGY TECHNOLOGY HISTORY HAS SHOWN: More Food Per Unit Land (via Innovation) Reduced Ecological Footprint Per Person

72. Worldwide Grain Yields Per Hectare

74. EATING OIL?

75. NO: TREND IS 12,000 YEARS OLD

76. SINCE LONG BEFORE FERTILIZER

77. Earliest Scratch Farming 1 ,000,000 m^2 / person Hunter Gatherer Societies~10,000,000 m^2 / person Irrigated Farming: 26,000 m^2 Roman Empire: 13,000 m^2 Late Middle Ages: 8,500 m^2 US Farming in 1900: 6,000 m^2 US Farming in 1960: 2,800 m^2 US Farming in 2000: 1,200 m^2

78. LAND REQUIRED TO FEED A HUMAN HAS SHRUNK BY 10,000x

79. LABOR PRICE OF LIGHTWORK HOURS PER 1,000 LUMEN HOURS

80. LIGHT / UNIT ENERGY: UP 500x IN 150 YEARS

81. WE USE LESS OIL PER PERSON THAN 1970

83. LESS WATER PER CAPITA THAN 1970

84. WE EMIT LESS CO2 / CAPITA THAN 1980

86. POPULATION WILL PLATEU & DECLINE

88. CO2 PER $ OF GDP IS SHRINKINGCHINA IS CATCHING UP USING WESTERN TECHNOLOGY

89. KNOWLEDGE CAN AND DOES REPLACE PHYSICAL RESOURCES

90. What are the limits?

94. 14 SECONDS OF INSOLATION

95. = 1 DAY OF HUMANITY’S ENERGY USE

96. 88 MINUTES OF INSOLATION

97. = 1 YEAR OF HUMANITY’S ENERGY USE

98. 0.3% of Earth’s Land Area Could Power Humanity in 2030 at 14% efficiency. 1/100th the Area Used for Agriculture Today

100. SOLAR MOORE’S LAW: -7% $$/WATT EACH YEAR

101. Algae Based Biofuels

104. DARPA: $5 / GALLON BIO-KEROSINE IN 2013

106. Fresh Water

110. FARM PRODUCTIVITY : LARGE VARIANCE

111. US YIELDS REPRESENT 2X UPSIDEUS-STYLE FARMING COULD DOUBLE TOTAL WORLD FOOD

113. MOVE RICE & OTHER C3 CROPS  C4 PHOTOSYNTHESIS ~30% YIELD INCREASES

114. 13%

115. PHOTOSYNTHETIC LIMIT OF FOOD IS VAST 1200 m^2 / person on earth with best farming today 31 m^2 / person at 13% efficiency(with an American diet) 6 m^2 / person at 13% efficiency(with a vegetarian diet)

116. RETURNING LAND TO NATURE Increased Yields = Less Land Per Person Population Will Peak at < 10 Billion Opportunity: Return Millions of km^2 to Forest

117. Fish Farming vs. Fish Hunting

120. INCREDIBLE GROWTH IS POSSIBLE Natural Resources are Huge: Energy Water Food Limits Materials Innovation Can Tap Into Them with Less and Less Impact on the World

121. POSSIBLE != CERTAIN

122. CHALLENGE: A BUG IN OUR SOFTWARE

123. MARKET ECONOMICS The “Software” That Runs Our Society Incredibly Successful Has Outcompeted All Other Systems Aligns Individual Incentives with Overall Desires Rewards Innovation A Darwinian Ecosystem For New Ideas But One Key Bug…

124. EXTERNALITIES

125. EXTERNALITY THINGS WE CARE ABOUT THINGS THE MARKET CAN MANAGE(THINGS WITH PRICES, OWNERS, BUYERS, SELLERS)

130. EXTERNALITY THINGS WE CARE ABOUT THINGS THE MARKET CAN MANAGE(A WIDER VARIETY THAN TODAY) THINGS THE MARKET CAN MANAGE(THINGS WITH PRICES, OWNERS, BUYERS, SELLERS)

131. $$$

132. A CARBON TAX Creates Incentives for: Conservation & Efficiency Alternative Energy Use and R&D Sequestration of Carbon from Atmosphere

133. WHAT WOULD IT COST? ENOUGH TO HIT A TIPPING POINT Cheaper to Pull Carbon From the Air than the Ground Cheaper to Build Solar than Coal Immediately Cheap Enough We Could Remedy Externalities

134. WHAT WOULD IT COST? $50 - $100 / Ton of CO2e = $.50 - $1.00 / gallon of gasoline $.05 - $.10 / kilowatt hour of coal electricity Phased in Over 10 Years

135. WE’VE FIXED GLOBAL COMMONS BEFORE

136. WE’VE FIXED GLOBAL COMMONS BEFORE

137. REQUIRES COOPERATION & DISCIPLINE

138. WE CAN DO IT AGAIN

139. WE MUST FIX OUR SYSTEM

140. WE MUST END EXTERNALITIES

141. IF WE FAIL TO ACT

145. MAKE THE RIGHT CHOICES

146. GROWTH CAN CONTINUE

147. BEYOND OUR WILDEST DREAMS

149. OUR GREATEST RESOURCE

151. Ramez Naam@ramez

152. For More Like This, Click Below:Follow @Ramez on TwitterVisit unbridledspeculation.comContact mez@morethanhuman.org