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Innovating Past Global Crisis
Ramez Naam @ramez
RAMEZ NAAM
mez@morethanhuman.org @ramez
Buy at Amazon
NASA
It was the best of times,
It was the worst of times
BEST OF TIMES
INFANT MORTALITY
Egypt 1973: 15%
Egypt 1940s: 25%
US 1900: 25%
Egypt Today: 2%
US Today: 0.7%
Lamia Hassan
LONGER LIVES
Rich Nations
World
Average Years of Life
Wikimedia Commons
Percent of World Living on $1 / Day
PovertyImages
Addicted to Growth
Aivaris Zukis
WORST OF TIMES
Dying Forests
Laitche
Geraldine Garcon Juncas
Dhy
Sam Beebe
NASA
NASA
Kansas University
Innovating Past Global Crisis
Bruno de Giusti
Temperature Change since 1880 (degrees F)
Linfield College
Innovating Past Global Crisis
GlobalWarmingArt.com
GlobalWarmingArt.com
GlobalWarmingArt.com
European PressPhoto Agency
Xinhua
UPI
Andrey Smirnov
Larry W. Smith
Innovating Past Global Crisis
Innovating Past Global Crisis
Innovating Past Global Crisis
Innovating Past Global Crisis
Dictionnaire-Environnement
Footprint
NASA
Addicted to Growth
Aivaris Zukis
Footprint 2
NASA
Innovating Past Global Crisis
LONG HISTORY
OF
OVERCOMING LIMITS
Wayne Osborn
Wikimedia Commons
Star of the Republic Museum
Historical Society
of Canada
Innovating Past Global Crisis
Innovating Past Global Crisis
PHYSICAL RESOURCES ARE VAST
10,000 x
10 Seconds of Sunlight
= 1 Day of Humanity’s Energy Use
1 Hour of Sunlight
= 1 Year of Humanity’s Energy Use
Innovating Past Global Crisis
Innovating Past Global Crisis
Innovating Past Global Crisis
0.3% of Earth’s Land Area Could
Power Humanity in 2030.
Innovating Past Global Crisis
Fresh Water
Innovating Past Global Crisis
Not Resource Limits
Innovation Limits
Innovations Multiply Resource Access
Moore’s Law for Solar PV
AMD
Cost of Solar Power
CROSSOVER: TODAY - 2025
Michael Dawes
Innovating Past Global Crisis
Innovating Past Global Crisis
Innovating Past Global Crisis
Storage
Javier Gil
Storage
Bensonuka
IF WE CAN CRACK ENERGY…
DESALINATION ENERGY
Atlaslin
Innovating Past Global Crisis
Innovating Past Global Crisis
Bern@tUSDA
Bern@tUSDA
Innovations Reduce Resource Use
Multiplier / Reducer: Agriculture
LESS ENERGY PER CALORIE GROWN
Boeing
Not Just Land: Less Oil Use
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1972 2002 2011 2030 (projected)
BarrelsofOilPerPersonPerYear
Barrels of Oil Per Person Per Year
Colfert
Innovating Past Global Crisis
Innovating Past Global Crisis
Innovating Past Global Crisis
Innovating Past Global Crisis
iPhone vs. ENIAC
Michael
O’Donnell
Knowledge is a Replicator
PROBLEM SOLVED?
NO: A RACE
CONSUMPTION
VS
INNOVATION
WINNING THE RACE
R&D
EDUCATION
POVERTY REDUCTION
TECHNOLOGY ACCEPTANCE
FIX THE MARKET
FIX MARKET FAILURES
Terry Luns
Marvin Greene
Cleveland State University
Cleveland State University
Commons
Innovating Past Global Crisis
Brent Durken
Decoupled Growth From Pollution
Rules Not Resources
NASA
NASA
CFC Release (thousands of tons)
Bob Baer
THINGS THE MARKET
CAN MANAGE
(A WIDER VARIETY
THAN TODAY)
EXTERNALITY
THINGS WE CARE ABOUT
THINGS THE MARKET
CAN MANAGE
(THINGS WITH
PRICES, OWNERS, BUYERS, S
ELLERS)
(Improving the Market Algorithm)
Innovating Past Global Crisis
Tax the Bad, Not the Good
(Improve the Tax Algorithm)
Income Tax Carbon Tax
David Suzuki
Pollution
NOT
an inevitable outcome of
Growth
Cleveland State University
Brent Durken
NASA
NASA
Not Limits
Policy
Design of our Economy
Pace of Innovation
What Can We Do?
1. Communicate
2. Participate
3. Innovate
4. Keep Hope
Not Exhausted, Multiplies Other
Resources
RAMEZ NAAM
mez@morethanhuman.org @ramez
Buy at Amazon

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Innovating Past Global Crisis

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. Image source: NASA
  2. Lamia Hassan: http://avoicefromcairo.wordpress.com/
  3. Wikimedia commons
  4. Image: povertyimages.com
  5. AivarisZukishttp://www.flickr.com/photos/stunna1/5710694970/in/photostream/So, some say, we must give up our energy-intense, resource-intense way of living..We must give up the idea of economic growth, stabilize our economies, maybe even shrink them.--- We’ve been warned that growth was about to destroy us before. In 1968, Paul Ehrlich warned us that population growth was about to doom billions to starvation.goway.com/blog/2010/04/06/shanghai-exposed/
  6. Two thirds of the planet was once covered in forest.Laitche: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Forest_Osaka_Japan.jpg
  7. Only half of that forest area now remains. The rest destroyed primarily to grow and graze food.Image: Geraldine Garcon Juncas
  8. Image: DHYAverage American uses 1600 cubic meters of water per year.A cube 40’ on a side.
  9. Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons, Sam Beebe, http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Crop_circles_along_the_Columbia,_Washington,_USA.jpg70% OF WORLDWIDE WATER USE FOR AGRICULTURE
  10. Image: NASAAral Sea spans Uzbekistan and Kazakstan: 1989-2003Image: Wikimedia Commons
  11. Image: NASAAral Sea, 2009. Source: National Geographic
  12. Ogallala Aquifer.Provides water for farming across 8 states in the high plains. Fossil water, filled for more than 10,000 yearsSince 1960, we’ve used up HALF of the water in this aquifer. In areas of Texas, the flow from pumps is now a quarter of what it was. By 2050, at current rates, this resource that took more than 10,000 years to fill up will be gone.Image source: Kansas University: http://www.kgs.ku.edu/Publications/Bulletins/162/03_strat.html
  13. Image: Bruno de Giusti: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Moofushi_Kandu_fish.jpgPlenty of fish in the sea.
  14. Image source: Linfield College. http://www.linfield.edu/
  15. Bear GlacierSource: Globalwarmingart.com
  16. Pederson GlacierGlobalwarming art
  17. Pederson GlacierSource: globalwarmingart.com
  18. Photo: European Pressphoto AgencyEuropean heat wave of 2003. Potato farmer in Russia.In August of 2003, Europe was hit with the hottest summer on record since at least 1540. More than 70,000 people died. France lost 20% of its wheat harvest. Fires destroyed 10% of the forests of Portugal. Melting glaciers brought on avalanches and flash floods in Switzerland. Ukraine lost a whopping 75% of its wheat harvest.2003 European Heat Wave, Wikipedia, accessed 8/16/11, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_European_heat_waveEUROPEAN HEAT WAVE OF 2003. HOTTEST SUMMER SINCE 1540. 70,000 DEATHS. 10% OF PORTUGAL’S FORESTS DESTROYED BY FIRE. 75% OF UKRAINE WHEAT CROP LOST.
  19. Image: xinhuarChina drought – farmer in Yunnan province. Two “hundred year” droughts in two years.CHINA 2009 AND 2010: TWO ‘WORST IN 100 YEARS’ DROUGHTS IN 2 YEARS. 20 M PEOPLE AFFECTED. WELLS ACTIVE FOR 500 YEARS RUNNING DRY.
  20. Image: UPIFlooding in Pakistan. Twice the area of Texas was under water. UNPRECEDENTED PAKISTANI FLOODS. FLOODED AREA LARGER THAN FRANCE OR GERMANY.
  21. Photo:  Andrey SmirnovRussian heat wave of 2010. 55EUROPEAN HEAT WAVE OF 2010, CENTERED ON RUSSIA. 55,000 DEATHS. 11,000 DEATHS IN MOSCOW ALONE. RUSSIAN WHEAT CROP DECIMATED.,000 people killed. 11,000 people in Moscow alone.
  22. Larry W. Smith / EPA http://photoblog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/09/05/7618690-dramatic-images-of-wildfire-near-austin-texasTexas wildfires. Hottest summer in US in history. Drying summer in Texas in history. TEXAS WILDFIRES – DRIEST 9 MONTHS IN RECORDED HISTORY. WHEAT CROP DOWN BY >60%
  23. Credit: dictionnaire-environnementhttp://216654.aceboard.fr/216654-2230-5368-0-Permafrost.htmTUNDRA AND PERMAFROST MELTING IN ALASKA, CANADA, SIBERIA.
  24. NASASummed across all of our consumption, We’re using resources faster than Nature can replenish them. We’re using one and a half Earth’s worth of natural resources. ----And if everyone on this planet lived like an American, we’d be using 5 planets worth of natural resources. We don’t have five Planet Earths.
  25. AivarisZukishttp://www.flickr.com/photos/stunna1/5710694970/in/photostream/So, some say, we must give up our energy-intense, resource-intense way of living..We must give up the idea of economic growth, stabilize our economies, maybe even shrink them.--- We’ve been warned that growth was about to destroy us before. In 1968, Paul Ehrlich warned us that population growth was about to doom billions to starvation.goway.com/blog/2010/04/06/shanghai-exposed/
  26. And if everyone on this planet lived like an American, we’d be using 5 planets worth of natural resources. We don’t have five Planet Earths. ----So, some say, we must give up our energy-intense, resource-intense way of living..We must give up the idea of economic growth, stabilize our economies, maybe even shrink them.
  27. Photo credit: Wayne Osborn http://thewhalediaries.blogspot.com/
  28. Source: Wikimedia Commons
  29. Star of the Republic Museum: http://www.txindependence.org/sources.php?action=view&id=266&type=subject&title=Lighting&&typeId=16&ru=c291cmNlcy5waHA/YWN0aW9uPWJ5VHlwZSZ0eXBlPXN1YmplY3QmdHlwZUlkPTE2
  30. Historical Society of CanadaGesner created kerosene.No evidence that he really cared about the whales.Motivated by profit. High price for clean lighting.But that motivation led him to create this substitute.
  31. Image source: ???
  32. http://solarenergyfactsblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/solar-energy-to-power-world.jpgLooks accurate at about 20%.
  33. Fresh water is an energy problem. We use a tiny tiny fraction of all water on the planet. Saltwater + energy, can be fresh water.Desalination = 0.77 kwh per cubic meter.Americans use 1600 cubic meters per capita per year.For 9 B people, would be 11 Trillion Kw Hours3 KilaMega9 Giga12 Tera15 Peta= 1.1 * 10^16 watt hoursSun delivers 350,000,000 * 10^12 = 3.5 * 10^20Current Energy Usage = 150,000 Twhours / year = 1.5 x 10^17
  34. Image Source: AMDIn 1954, solar cells cost $1,000 per Watt of power. Today, these cells, manufactured like microchips, cost around $2 per Watt. ----If we keep innovating, in 10 years, solar will be cheaper than coal. In 20 years, it could be half the price, providing us clean, abundant, cheap energy to power our future.
  35. Javier Gil
  36. Wheat: Bern@thttp://www.flickr.com/photos/93252788@N00Corn: USDA
  37. Wheat: Bern@thttp://www.flickr.com/photos/93252788@N00Corn: USDA
  38. We’ve don’t it with agriculture.We’ve gone from needing 6,000 acres to feed one person, to using less than half an acre per person today. Innovation has reduced the need for land.
  39. NightThree
  40. Air travel uses only 1/3 as much fuel per passenger mile as it did in the 1960s.Image credit: Boeing
  41. Colfert: http://www.panoramio.com/photo/2106602
  42. Photo: Michael O’DonnelWe’ve done it with computers.At the efficiency of the 1940s, an iPhone would have to be larger than the city of Chicago, and draw more power than the entire state of California. ----We’ve even done it with oil and water. The average american now uses a third less of each than in 1970, even as the size of our economy has doubled.That’s not enough, not yet. But it’s a start. Images: Wikimedia
  43. One more trait makes knowledge unique among resources. Ideas are viral. They replicate. They spread to other people without loss to the original holder.----And so the solar technology developed in the US has spread to these women in the tiny village of Tinginaput, in India. They’ve been trained by their government to install and repair solar cells in their village, and in others nearby.
  44. Image:terryluns
  45. Marvin Greene: http://csudigitalhumanities.org/exhibits/items/show/1909
  46. Businesses polluted the river, because they had no incentive not to. In fact, it was cheaper for them to dump waste and oil into the river then it was for them to deal with disposing it properly. In other words, the river was a commons. And it was being hit with the tragedy of the commons – the overuse or destruction of a resource that everyone shares, an that no one owns. Those businesses are able to privatize gains, while socializing the losses. They reap the profits of selling products made in a dirty way, and they make the rest of the community – and those down stream – pay for the damage. And that’s a classic market failure. The market actually encourages businesses to exploit the commons. Because if they don’t, a competitor will, and will gain an advantage over them.Cleveland State University: Cleveland Press, “Oil Slick on the Cuyahoga,” Teaching & Learning Cleveland , accessed March 6, 2012, http://csudigitalhumanities.org/
  47. Cleveland State UniversityIn this case, the results were spectacular. A train passing on a bridge over the river threw a spar down into the oil, and the river caught fire. This wasn’t even the first time the river had caught fire. It was the 13th. But this time, it caught national attention. And the following year, Richard Nixon signed legislation creating the EPA. Over the next 4 years Congress would pass the Clean Air Act and the Clean Water act, that restricted the ability of people to pollute.
  48. Just as we’ve innovated in technology, we’ve innovated in the rules that govern us. The year after the Cuyahoga River fire, the EPA was created. In the next 3 years, the Clean Air Act and the Clean Water Act were both passed.Today, the river is cleaner, even while Cleveland is far richer than it was in 1969. There’s no trade off between economic growth and environment, IF we put the right incentives in place to protect those commons.The man who signed the EPA, clean air act, and clean water acts into law, by the way, was a Republican – Richard Nixon.Brent Durken: http://brentdurken.com/tag/cuyagoga-river/
  49. NASA Goddard http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/world_avoided.html
  50. NASA Goddard http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/world_avoided.htmlReagan: Wikimedia commons
  51. Image: Bob Baer: http://www.pbase.com/bob_baer/image/115760976/original
  52. Image: Environmental Defense Fund. http://blogs.edf.org/energyexchange/files/2012/01/polluted-sunset1.jpgMost important pollutants today are CO2 and other greenhouse gases.If we pick up the best practice of putting a price on pollution, we can limit it. Either via cap and trade OR a carbon tax. Either of those puts a price on greenhouse gas pollution..But there’s a further innovation in economics that we should employ as well. And that’s to make a carbon price Revenue Neutral. Which is to say, to return all the money collected back to the taxpayers.
  53. http://www.davidsuzuki.org/issues/climate-change/science/climate-solutions/carbon-tax-or-cap-and-trade/The point is to tip the scales. If green energy is cheaper than fossil fuels, people will switch. That funds R&D in clean energy, which helps reduce the price further.Now, does this work?
  54. Cleveland State UniversityIn this case, the results were spectacular. A train passing on a bridge over the river threw a spar down into the oil, and the river caught fire. This wasn’t even the first time the river had caught fire. It was the 13th. But this time, it caught national attention. And the following year, Richard Nixon signed legislation creating the EPA. Over the next 4 years Congress would pass the Clean Air Act and the Clean Water act, that restricted the ability of people to pollute.
  55. Just as we’ve innovated in technology, we’ve innovated in the rules that govern us. The year after the Cuyahoga River fire, the EPA was created. In the next 3 years, the Clean Air Act and the Clean Water Act were both passed.Today, the river is cleaner, even while Cleveland is far richer than it was in 1969. There’s no trade off between economic growth and environment, IF we put the right incentives in place to protect those commons.The man who signed the EPA, clean air act, and clean water acts into law, by the way, was a Republican – Richard Nixon.Brent Durken: http://brentdurken.com/tag/cuyagoga-river/
  56. NASA Goddard http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/world_avoided.html
  57. NASA Goddard http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/world_avoided.htmlReagan: Wikimedia commons
  58. Most important resource we have is new ideas. It’s our ability to innovate.If we continue to innovate both in technology and in how we manage our resources, then we can have our cake and eat it to. There is no limit to the wealth and well being we can aspire to, on a healthy, living planet, if we make the right choices.