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Big data and freemium

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Big data and freemium

  1. 1. Big Data Analytics For Freemium Startups Rags Srinivasan @ragsPinching Pennies from Consumers: Iterative PathCharging For The Extras Math Marketer Copyright © 2012 Rags Srinivasan
  2. 2. Freemium Businesses are Based on HopeFree Marketing Users to WoM Marketing Customers Users sign-up Users fall in love Users tell their friendsbecause it is free and upgrade and followers Math Marketer Copyright © 2012 Rags Srinivasan
  3. 3. Lack of Predictability Poses BusinessChallenges How many will How much to invest? upgrade? Effect of WoM What is the valuation? marketing? Math Marketer Copyright © 2012 Rags Srinivasan
  4. 4. Current Aggregate Data are Not Enough When a user signs up what is the likelihood she will upgrade? Fixed cost: $250,000/yr Revenue per customer: $0.25/yr Total Users: 3MM Total Customers: 100,000Knowing 2-3% of your current user base are paying customers does not help Math Marketer Copyright © 2012 Rags Srinivasan
  5. 5. What if You Can Improve Your KnowledgeAbout Your User Base? Know your Know if a change in Know if a user will customer mix marketing mix will never upgrade help What is the information worth to you? Math Marketer Copyright © 2012 Rags Srinivasan
  6. 6. Your Users are Creating Enough Data – CanYou Put that to Work?Clickstream Stimulus - What is the Response expected lifetime value of this user?Interactions Should you keep her or show the door? Math Marketer Copyright © 2012 Rags Srinivasan
  7. 7. Probabilistic Marketing Can Help Before your eyes glaze over – let us start with a standard pack of cards Bayesian Statistics and Logistic Regression Math Marketer Copyright © 2012 Rags Srinivasan
  8. 8. Let us Start With Simple Probabilities of Drawing a Card I draw a card at random and ask you the probability it is a JackProbability of drawing a Jack: = 4/52 = 1/13 Math Marketer Copyright © 2012 Rags Srinivasan
  9. 9. Suppose You Can Ask Me A Few IndirectQuestions Now we are in the realm of conditional probabilities introduced by Bayes Math Marketer Copyright © 2012 Rags Srinivasan
  10. 10. You ask – Is it a red card? If I answer yes If I answer no Probability it is a Probability it is a Jack is 2/26 =1/13 Jack is 2/26 =1/13 Not all questions are useful, but … Math Marketer Copyright © 2012 Rags Srinivasan
  11. 11. You Ask – Is It a Picture Card? If I answer yes If I answer no Probability it is a Probability it is a Jack is 4/12=1/3 Jack is 0 Some questions are immensely useful in increasing your knowledge – from 1/13 to 1/3 Math Marketer Copyright © 2012 Rags Srinivasan
  12. 12. Your Users and Prospects Can Be ModeledJust Like a Deck of Cards Not quite But using Logistic Models and Bayesian Regressions Math Marketer Copyright © 2012 Rags Srinivasan
  13. 13. How Likely is that a Freeloader will Upgradewithin 1 Year? What is the Information Worth to you? Do- Yes Apostles Gooders WoM Marketing (See here for details) Freeloader Customers No s No Pays Premium Yes Math Marketer Copyright © 2012 Rags Srinivasan
  14. 14. Ask me how Math Marketer Copyright © 2012 Rags Srinivasan

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