1. Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S.
PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT.
Jee-hyun Moon
+822-3774-1640
jeehyun.moon@miraeasset.com
Actions to drive growth coming into focus
2H17 Outlook
Internet/Game/Advertising
2. [Summary] Actions to drive growth coming into focus 3
I. 1H17 review 4
II. 2H17 outlook 7
III. [Internet] Two-track strategy 8
IV. [Game] New titles & M&As 16
V. [Advertising] Environmental factors & inorganic growth 21
VI. Investment strategy & valuation 25
VII. Top picks & other notable stocks 31
[Top picks] NAVER, NCsoft
[Conclusion] Focus on game changers 50
Contents
3. Mirae Asset Daewoo Research3| 2H17 Outlook [Internet/Game/Advertising]
Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
Growth engines such as AI, new game launches, and M&As to boost earnings and shares; Maintain Overweight
[Summary] Actions to drive growth coming into focus
Action!
[Internet] AI [Game] New game launches [Internet/Game/Advertising] M&As
4. Mirae Asset Daewoo Research4| 2H17 Outlook [Internet/Game/Advertising]
Expectations reflected in 1H17
- Game: Expectations for new
titles, IPO of Netmarble Games,
deregulation
- Kakao: Near-term earnings
rebound, spin-off of Kakao Pay,
reorganization of the mobility
services business
• In 1H17, game stocks and Kakao delivered robust share performances among internet/game/advertising plays.
• Game: Expectations for new titles (NCsoft); solid earnings and valuation merits (Com2uS); IPO (Netmarble Games)
• Kakao: Recovery in ad revenue, growth in content revenue (cash cow), and expectations for YoY earnings growth
In 1H17, game stocks and
Kakao delivered robust
share performances
1H17 share performance: NCsoft, Com2uS, and Kakao outperformed peers
Source: Thomson Reuters, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
I. 1H17 review
80
100
120
140
160
5/16 7/16 9/16 11/16 1/17 3/17 5/17
(1/17=100)
NAVER Kakao
NCsoft Com2uS
Cheil Worldwide INNOCEAN Worldwide 2017
5. Mirae Asset Daewoo Research5| 2H17 Outlook [Internet/Game/Advertising]
The ad business represents a key
business model for internet
firms.
- The ad business is a core
business model for internet
firms.
- Tencent has seen performance-
based ad revenue exceed
traditional display ad revenue
since 3Q16.
• For Kakao, ad revenue fell 10% YoY in 2016.
• In 1Q17, however, ad revenue resumed growth, boosting the stock.
• In 2H17, the company plans to roll out new ad products, including Kakao Moment, a performance-based ad
platform boasting superior targeting.
Key shifts in Kakao’s
drivers in 1H17
In 1Q17, shares of Kakao rebounded on ad revenue growth
Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
I. 1H17 review
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17F
(Wbn)(%, YoY)
Ad revenue growth (L) Market value (R)
6. Mirae Asset Daewoo Research6| 2H17 Outlook [Internet/Game/Advertising]
Impact of the Netmarble Games
IPO on game stocks
- Game stocks enjoyed a boost
following confirmation of the
upper bound of Netmarble’s
price range
- Marketing for new titles drew
attention to the game sector.
- Increased M&A activity shined a
spotlight on small/medium-
sized game stocks
• Biggest event of 1Q17: Netmarble Games IPO (KOSPI)
• Netmarble Games’ market cap stands at around W13tr. Globally, there are only six game stocks with market caps
of more than W10tr (Tencent, Activision Blizzard, Nintendo, NetEase, Electronic Arts, and Netmarble Games).
• For most game companies, the number of new title launches has increased YoY this year. Valuation merits are
increasing.
Netmarble Games IPO
Major game stocks have advanced since the beginning of the year; Differentiated share
performance since the Netmarble Games IPO
Note: For Netmarble Games, 100 marks the IPO price
Source: Thomson Reuters, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
I. 1H17 review
80
100
120
140
160
1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17
(1/17=100)
NCSOFT Com2uS
NHN Entertainment DoubleU
Webzen Gamevil
Netmarble Games
7. Mirae Asset Daewoo Research7| 2H17 Outlook [Internet/Game/Advertising]
Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
Major variables and stocks in the internet/game/advertising sectors in 2H17
• Companies will likely make visible efforts to achieve growth in 2H17.
• Internet: AI businesses are likely to take off, leading to an increase in AI device launches. Existing businesses will
continue to seek additional growth drivers.
• Game: New title launches, overseas publishing, and M&A activity should pick up.
• Advertising: Digital will likely gain ground in the ad market; domestic regulatory risks vs. overseas M&A
opportunities.
Actions to drive growth
taking shape
II. 2H17 outlook
2H17
Top picks and other
notable stocks
Internet
• AI service and device launches to pick up
• Internet ad market to exceed the TV ad market
• Content AI-based recommendation services; increase in
exclusive production/distribution
• Top pick: NAVER
• Notable stocks: Kakao, Interpark
Game
• Pickup in new mobile title launches in the domestic
market
• Increase in overseas publishing, particularly in China
• Greater M&A activity and deregulation
• Top pick: NCsoft
• Notable stocks: Netmarble Games,
Com2uS
Advertising
• Digital media to gain ground in the ad market
• Ad agencies: Increase in affiliate billings vs. stricter
regulations on related-party transactions
• Global M&As to increase, backed by ample cash holdings
• Notable stocks: INNOCEAN Worldwide,
Nasmedia, Cheil Worldwide
8. Mirae Asset Daewoo Research8| 2H17 Outlook [Internet/Game/Advertising]
Source: Thomson Reuters, Advertising Yearbook, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
Korea internet index: Seeking growth through AI
• The domestic internet index has displayed three distinct growth stages:
1) 2017-12: The index gained 35%, in line with the expansion of the internet ad market from W1tr to W2tr.
2) 2013-16: The index advanced 70%, with the pickup in mobile revenue pushing up the value of the internet ad
market to W3tr.
3) 2017 and beyond: Internet ad revenue has caught up with TV ad revenue. Companies are looking for new
growth opportunities via AI.
Current stage: Looking
for growth through AI
III. [Internet] Two-track strategy
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
100
200
300
400
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18F
(Wtr)(P)
Korean internet ad market (R)
Korean internet sector index (L)
Korean TV ad market (R)
Mobile ad-led growth
Application
of AI
Internet ads: W1tr → W2tr
Global
financial
crisis
9. Mirae Asset Daewoo Research9| 2H17 Outlook [Internet/Game/Advertising]
Note: As of 1Q17 (YoY)
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
NAVER’s AI business to drive cloud business growth
Global IT firms, which are expanding their AI businesses, are
enjoying rapid growth in cloud revenue
Source: Company materials, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
• AI businesses and devices are taking off at home and abroad.
• Global IT firms, which have recently been expanding their AI businesses, are delivering rapid growth in cloud
services revenue.
• NAVER unveiled its AI platform Clova in March, and announced its plans to expand its global B2B cloud business
in April.
• AI platforms serve as interfaces. Cloud services should generate actual revenue.
New business
opportunities:
AI + services
III. [Internet] Two-track strategy
43%
35%
11% 10%
19%
31%
Amazon IBM Microsoft Amazon IBM Microsoft
Cloud revenue growth Cloud revenue share
Clova Papago Smart devices
10. Mirae Asset Daewoo Research10| 2H17 Outlook [Internet/Game/Advertising]
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
Kakao tackles daily tasks: Increased integration of AI
Kakao’s AI business: Kakao Talk to be transformed
into a platform
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
• “Bots are the new apps,” said Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella at a 2016 conference .
• With users currently reliant on a plethora of apps, bots can improve convenience by responding to voice
commands.
• Total time spent (TTS) on messaging apps is on the rise. Messaging apps have broadened their scope to include
features aimed at making daily tasks easier.
• If chatbots evolve into one-stop service platforms via AI, they can provide real concierge services.
New business
opportunities:
AI + services
III. [Internet] Two-track strategy
Assistant Bot
Plus Friend Bot
11. Mirae Asset Daewoo Research11| 2H17 Outlook [Internet/Game/Advertising]
Notes: NAVER/LINE’s voice recognition speaker WAVE and display device FACE; NAVER Labs’ M1 robot; Kakao’s AI device launch in 3Q17
Source: Company materials, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
Launch of AI-based hardware by internet firms to increase full swing in 2H17
• Internet firms’ medium- to long-term goal for their AI investments is the expansion of influence in the platform
space.
• Internet firms are now turning their eyes to unclaimed areas—living rooms and cars.
• To make forays into living rooms, they are developing voice recognition speakers. Voice recognition and robotics
will likely pave the way for entries into the automotive market by internet firms.
• As drivers tend to consume audio content heavily while they are driving, voice recognition technology should be
useful. Robotic hardware and autonomous technology will also likely be widely utilized.
New business
opportunities:
AI + hardware
III. [Internet] Two-track strategy
12. Mirae Asset Daewoo Research12| 2H17 Outlook [Internet/Game/Advertising]
Notes: Based on consolidated data; business platform revenue includes search ad revenue; IT
platform revenue includes payments, IT services, and cloud revenue
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
NAVER shopping search ads payments: Virtuous cycle
NAVER’s shopping business boosts revenue growth of
business and IT platforms
Source: Company materials, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
• Internet firms need to make further progress in the monetization of mobile traffic.
• For NAVER, the shopping business supports the company’s other businesses, including search ads (business
platform) and payments (IT platform).
• Launched in November 2016, the shopping search ad business will likely boost revenue across all business units
in 2017.
• NAVER’s Shopping Window has created a virtuous cycle across the ecosystem by providing a wide range of
solutions to sellers.
Additional growth of
existing businesses:
Shopping to provide
catalysts
III. [Internet] Two-track strategy
0
20
40
60
80
400
450
500
550
600
1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 3Q17F
(Wbn)(Wbn)
Business platform revenue (L)
IT platform revenue (R)
NAVER
Shopping
Product
registration
NAVER
Shopping
search ads
Ad registration
NAVER
Pay
Point
accumulation
to users
Sales
commissions
based on
shopping
mall visits
Search
ad
revenue
Fees based
on ad
registration
and clicks
User accumulates points
based on ad clicksPoints can be used on
subsequent purchases
Payment fees and purchase
data collection
+ bid
13. Mirae Asset Daewoo Research13| 2H17 Outlook [Internet/Game/Advertising]
Notes: Under consolidated K-IFRS; Loen Entertainment’s revenue is recognized as music content
revenue (consolidated since 2Q16))
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
Kakao benefiting from launches of more sophisticated games;
KakaoPage transactions grew 60% YoY in 1Q
Kakao’s content business: Maintaining robust growth and
continuing to serve as a cash cow
Source: Company materials, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
• Kakao’s content business is maintaining steady growth, and remains the company’s cash cow.
• Loen Entertainment’s earnings have been consolidated since 2Q16; MelOn has been enjoying net growth in paid
subscribers in 2017, thanks in part to the linkage of Kakao Talk and MelOn accounts.
• Game revenue is anticipated to rebound following the launches of more sophisticated games, including Penta
Storm in 2Q and Onmyoji in 3Q.
• KakaoPage is enjoying double-digit transaction growth YoY, as well as higher traffic than NAVER Webtoon.
Additional growth of
existing businesses:
Digital content
III. [Internet] Two-track strategy
0
10
20
30
40
0
40
80
120
160
1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 3Q17F
(Wbn)(Wbn)
Game content revenue (L)
Music content revenue (L)
Other content revenue (R)
14. Mirae Asset Daewoo Research14| 2H17 Outlook [Internet/Game/Advertising]
Note: Concept map for Kakao’s interactive content recommendation system RUBICS
Source: Company materials, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
AI and recommendation services/targeting are boosting revenue by pushing up content consumption; Display ad revenue could
increase for free content
• Internet firms are seeking to bolster the growth momentum of existing businesses via AI technology.
• For example, mobile content services are adopting personalized recommendation services.
• By applying targeting technologies to mobile services, internet firms aim to boost per-user content consumption.
• After applying AI, per-user consumption of mobile news content increased by 20% for Daum and over 30% for
NAVER.
Additional growth of
existing businesses:
AI and targeting
III. [Internet] Two-track strategy
Individual
user
Individual
user
Individual
user
Individual
user
mtop
news1
Individual
user
Individual
user
Individual
user
Individual
user
mtop
news2
mtop
news3
mtop
news1
User
interest not
reflected
User
interest not
reflected
User
interest not
reflected
User
interest not
reflected
User interest
reflected in
news
content
15. Mirae Asset Daewoo Research15| 2H17 Outlook [Internet/Game/Advertising]
Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
Risks: Concerns over cost increases due to investment
expansion
Opportunities: Margin growth driven by monetization of
additional business models and new businesses
Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
• Opportunities: Potential upside to margins via additional monetization of mobile business models; AI to support
new businesses and drive the growth of existing businesses
• Risks: Concerns over increasing AI investment costs; slow pace of monetization of new businesses
• Internet firms’ capex stands at just 10-20% of revenue.
• Internet firms are pursuing sustainable, secular growth by simultaneously pursuing further growth of existing
businesses and the expansion of new businesses.
Opportunities vs. risks
III. [Internet] Two-track strategy
• Potential upside to margins via
monetization of mobile business models
• AI to support new businesses as well as
growth of existing businesses
• Concerns over increasing AI investment
expenses
• Monetization of new businesses should
be approached from a long-term
perspective
16. Mirae Asset Daewoo Research16| 2H17 Outlook [Internet/Game/Advertising]
Notes: Combined market cap is based on the market caps of NCsoft, Com2uS, NHN Entertainment, Webzen, DoubleU Games, and Neowiz Games as of mid-May of each year. For Netmarble Games,
estimated valuations during 2014-16 were included. Combined revenue includes revenue from PC online, mobile, console, PC CD, arcade, and internet café games.
Source: KOCCA, Thomson Reuters, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
Game industry is undergoing restructuring, spurred by increasingly elaborate mobile titles and a wave of M&A deals
• The domestic game industry’s market cap trend can be divided into three growth stages:
1) 2000s: Rapid growth of online games; diversification and increasing sophistication of PC online games
2) 2012-15: Growth driven by mobile casual games; the rise of games based on messaging apps/social
networking services (SNS)
• 3) 2016 and beyond: Increasingly ambitious mobile games and industry restructuring; the introduction of
MMORPGs; increasing M&A activity among global players
Long-term trends:
Increasingly large-scale
games and industry
restructuring
IV. [Game] New titles & M&As
0
10
20
30
40
0
4
8
12
16
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18F
(Wtr)(Wtr) Korean game market revenue (L)
Total market cap of Korea's major game stocks (R)
Double-digit growth in online games
Mobile casual game-driven growth
Mobile game market
expansion and
restructuring
17. Mirae Asset Daewoo Research17| 2H17 Outlook [Internet/Game/Advertising]
Note: ARPPU = average revenue per paying user)
Source: KOCCA, App Annie, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
Major domestic game firms’ new titles scheduled for launch
after May 2017
RPGs and MMORPGs to drive competition among new mobile
titles
Source: Company materials, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
• New mobile title launches are projected to pick up in 2017, mainly driven by MMORPGs.
• Expectations for new titles (i.e., new sources of revenue) serve as the strongest momentum driver for game
stocks.
• Best-case scenario: Generation of new revenue without cannibalization of existing game revenue
• For this scenario to actually materialize, game companies need to pursue genre and market diversification and
strategically set user targets.
1) Increasing new title
launches
IV. [Game] New titles & M&As
Company Games
Netmarble
Games
Night of War, Stone Age Mobile, Destiny 6,
Epic Saga, Monster Age, ArchMoon, Soul King,
GLiNDA, Seven Knights (MMORPG), Phantom
Gate, 4Ones Poker, Blade & Soul (MMORPG),
Tera Mobile, The King of Fighters: All Star, Teria
Saga, First Born, G. I. Joe, Trendy Town
NCsoft
Lineage M (mobile),
Aion Legions (mobile), a new game developed
by a US subsidiary,
Lineage Red Knights (mobile) overseas,
Lineage Eternal (PC), Blade & Soul Mobile,
Lineage II Mobile
Com2uS
Majestia,
Project S, Ace Fishing VR, Birdie Crush,
Danceville,
Skylanders Mobile, Heroes War 2,
Summoners War (MMORPG)
18. Mirae Asset Daewoo Research18| 2H17 Outlook [Internet/Game/Advertising]
Note: 2017 data are our forecasts
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
Domestic game companies’ export and import trendsM&A and investment trends in the global game industry
Note: 2016 and 2017 data are our estimates
Source: KOCCA, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
• We are likely to see an increase in M&A deals in the global game industry.
• In 2011, mobile games sharply gained popularity with the rapid penetration of smartphones, and major game
companies’ acquisitions of mobile game studios picked up significantly.
• The most significant M&A deal in 2015 was Activision Blizzard’s acquisition of mobile game developer King Digital.
• M&A activity will likely pick up going forward as the scales of individual titles grow more ambitious, the
development studio system proliferates, and global game companies pursue revenue growth.
2) M&A activity to pick
up
IV. [Game] New titles & M&As
200
300
400
500
600
0
20
40
60
80
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17F
(no.)(US$bn)
Total value (L)
No. of deals (R)
0
120
240
360
480
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17F
(US$mn)(US$mn)
Exports (L)
Imports (R)
19. Mirae Asset Daewoo Research19| 2H17 Outlook [Internet/Game/Advertising]
Note: Our 2017 estimate includes expected capital inflow from the IPO of Netmarble Games,
NCsoft’s sale of NC Tower 2, and Com2uS’s annual free cash flow expansion
Source: Company data, Korea Ratings, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
Smaller companies are differentiating themselves with
advanced technologies, including AR and VR
Leading players are accumulating cash
Note: Includes yet-to-be-released titles
Source: Company materials, media reports, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
• Major domestic and overseas game companies are currently accumulating cash, which could be used for M&As.
• Smaller companies are differentiating themselves by focusing on new releases and entries into augmented
reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR).
• Amid the ongoing restructuring of the game market, leading game companies will likely receive premiums.
• With M&A activity picking up, small/mid-sized game companies boasting robust competitiveness and/or solid
intellectual property should attract attention. We anticipate the game sector to undergo a broad-based re-rating.
2) M&A activity to pick
up
IV. [Game] New titles & M&As
Company VR and AR game titles
Com2uS Ace Fishing VR
JoyCity Gunship Battle 2 VR
Mgame Scions of Fate VR
Dragonfly Special Force VR, Ddobot VR
Hanbit Soft Hellgate: London VR
Epic Games Robo Recall
Bluehole Valkyrie Blade
5minLab Snake VR, Welder VR, Toy Clash
Skonec
Entertainment
Mortal Blitz VR for PS0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F
(Wtr)
Netmarble Games
NCsoft
Com2uS
20. Mirae Asset Daewoo Research20| 2H17 Outlook [Internet/Game/Advertising]
Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
Risks: Higher share price volatility and cost increases
Opportunities: Revenue growth from success of new titles and
potential improvement in Chinese business
Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
• Opportunities: Potential success of new titles; the possibility of deregulation; and improvement in the Chinese
business
• Risks: Share price volatility related to uncertainties over new games’ prospects and market competition;
structural growth in expenses related to the development of mobile games
• Game companies have recently been utilizing a variety of pre-launch marketing tools to increase the likelihood of
success for new titles.
• Mobile game user base is expanding on the inflow of PC online game users (thanks to increasing sophistication
and genre diversification).
Opportunities vs. risks
IV. [Game] New titles & M&As
• Success of new games could accelerate
revenue growth
• Potential deregulation and improvement
in the Chinese business environment
• Uncertainty over the prospects of new
titles could lead to higher share price
volatility
• Structural increase in expenses related
to mobile game business
21. Mirae Asset Daewoo Research21| 2H17 Outlook [Internet/Game/Advertising]
Source: Company data , Thomson Reuters, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
Advertising firms’ overseas gross profit growth slowing in 2017; M&A wave will resume amid growing focus on global brand marketing
• Korean advertising firms’ market cap trend can be divided into three phases:
• 1) Early/mid-2000s: Dominance of single-entity business structure; dependence on the domestic market and
affiliates
• 2) 2008-13: Expansion into overseas markets amid the global financial crisis and limited upside to domestic
advertising market growth
• 3) 2014 and beyond: Shift toward an M&A-driven, group-based business structure; development of digital media
capabilities holds the key
Growing importance of
digital media platforms
and M&As
V. [Advertising] Environmental factors & inorganic growth
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18F
(Wtr)(Wbn)
Ad universe - gross profit from overseas sales (L)
Ad universe - market cap (R)
Domestic-oriented
Expansion of overseas networks,
start of overseas M&As
Increasing digital importance,
continued overseas M&As
22. Mirae Asset Daewoo Research22| 2H17 Outlook [Internet/Game/Advertising]
Source: Adweek, company materials, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
Nasmedia: Beneficiary of intensifying competition
Cheil Worldwide and INNOCEAN endeavoring to expand
affiliate business
Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
• Ad firms must proactively and flexibly respond to changes in both advertisers and the media environment.
• Advertisers: Cheil Worldwide and INNOCEAN Worldwide have been endeavoring to expand orders from affiliates
mainly in North America. This year, they have been focusing on expanding affiliate billings, rather than
diversifying their advertiser bases.
• Media: Nasmedia, an media rep, has expanded into the search ad market, through the acquisition of N Search
Marketing.
1) Environmental factors:
Advertiser-driven shifts
and media platforms
V. [Advertising] Environmental factors & inorganic growth
Cheil Worldwide
US subsidiary TBG
recently appointed
Cathy Butler (formerly of
DigitasLBi/Publicis,
the agency of Samsung
global) as CEO.
Cheil Worldwide
US subsidiary TBG
recently appointed
Cathy Butler (formerly of
DigitasLBi/Publicis,
the agency of Samsung
global) as CEO.
Set to expand orders from affiliates, mainly
in North America
Set to expand orders from affiliates, mainly
in North America
INNOCEAN
With Kia’s contract
with a US ad agency
slated to expire in 2018,
the firm will likely acquire
a company that can carry
out Kia’s US ad business.
INNOCEAN
With Kia’s contract
with a US ad agency
slated to expire in 2018,
the firm will likely acquire
a company that can carry
out Kia’s US ad business. 58%
20%
7%
15%
2017F revenue
breakdown
Online display ads
Online search ads
IPTV ads
Digital outdoor ads
23. Mirae Asset Daewoo Research23| 2H17 Outlook [Internet/Game/Advertising]
Note: 2017F data are based on our estimates.
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
INNOCEAN plans to forge an M&A deal in 2HGlobal ad industry M&A trend
Source: Company materials, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
• Ad firms view M&As as a way to drive top-line growth.
• Ad agencies create synergies through M&As in the following ways:
1) Existing clients could forge additional deals in recognition of the acquired company’s capabilities.
2) If acquired companies are allowed to operate independently, ad agencies can increase their account coverage while
avoiding conflicts between clients that operate in the same industry.
3) Market regions and business areas can be further diversified.
2) Inorganic growth:
M&As
V. [Advertising] Environmental factors & inorganic growth
M&AM&A
Internalization of
overseas media
capabilities
Internalization of
overseas media
capabilities
Expansion of non-affiliate
orders
Expansion of non-affiliate
orders
Global business expansionGlobal business expansion
0
250
500
750
1,000
0
10
20
30
40
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17F
(No.)(US$bn)
Value (L)
No. of deals (R)
24. Mirae Asset Daewoo Research24| 2H17 Outlook [Internet/Game/Advertising]
Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
Risks: Restrictions on related-party transactions
could be strengthened
Opportunities: Increased marketing spend and growing
demand for global brand marketing
Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
• Opportunities: Ad agencies should see increased business if clients aggressively expand marketing spend amid
intensifying competition.
• Risks: Ad agencies could be hit hard by the new administration’s potential tightening of regulations on related-party
transactions (amid the recent uptrend in the contribution of affiliate billings to total revenue).
• Meanwhile, overseas transactions are not subject to regulations on related-party transactions.
• There are opportunities for inorganic growth driven by acquisitions of overseas companies and firms with strong
digital media capabilities.
Opportunities vs. risks
V. [Advertising] Environmental factors & inorganic growth
• Companies in the IT, game, internet bank, and
auto industries will likely expand marketing
spend amid intensifying market competition
• Growing need for global brand marketing to
boost overseas sales
• Ad agencies are now more dependent on
affiliate billings
• The new administration could toughen
restrictions on related-party transactions
25. Mirae Asset Daewoo Research25| 2H17 Outlook [Internet/Game/Advertising]
Source: Thomson Reuters, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
Shares reflect AI commercialization expectationsExpectations for additional monetization of mobile businesses
Source: Thomson Reuters, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
• Three potential upside catalysts for shares of internet companies:
1) Contributions of new mobile businesses: The successful monetization of mobile profit models backed by
strong user traffic should lead to a rise in EV.
2) Commercialization of AI-related businesses: Amazon’s launch of the Echo smart speaker and Alexa triggered a
broad-based P/E re-rating of internet companies.
3) Global business expansion: Given the limited growth potential of the domestic market, global market
expansion should give additional momentum to Korean internet shares.
[Internet]
Investment strategy
VI. Investment strategy & valuation
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1/14 7/14 1/15 7/15 1/16 7/16 1/17
(x)(W'000)
NAVER price (L)
NAVER P/E (R)
Launched
Shopping
Window
Launched
shopping
search ads
Launched
NAVER
Pay
Launched
SNOW,
V Live
LINE
IPO
Snap IPO
(SNOW
spotlighted)
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1/14 7/14 1/15 7/15 1/16 7/16 1/17
(x)(US$)
Amazon price (L)
Amazon P/E (R)
Launched
Echo,
Alexa
Launched
Echo Dot
Launched
2 types of
Prime
plans
Launched
Prime
Video
globally
Opened
1st offline
bookstore
27. Mirae Asset Daewoo Research27| 2H17 Outlook [Internet/Game/Advertising]
Source: NAVER Data Lab, Thompson Reuters, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
P/E re-rating on fundamental improvementExample of re-rating on expectations for new game launches
Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
• Investment strategy for game stocks:
1) Short term: Focus on event-driven momentum (e.g., new game launches). For game stocks, expectations for
key events tend to move shares ahead of actual earnings growth.
2) Medium term: Focus on growth potential (in revenue terms). Qualitative aspects of revenue growth are also
noteworthy.
3) Long term: Focus on potential re-ratings backed by fundamental improvement (e.g., PC online game
companies’ expansion into mobile games).
[Game]
Investment strategy
VI. Investment strategy & valuation
200
240
280
320
360
400
0
20
40
60
80
100
5/16 7/16 9/16 11/16 1/17 3/17 5/17
(W'000)(Max=100)
"Lineage M" search index (L)
"Lineage Red Knights" search index (L)
"Lineage 2: Revolution" search index (L)
NCsoft stock price (R)
0
40
80
120
160
0
10
20
30
40
50
01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17
(x)(US$bn)
Activision Blizzard market cap (L)
Activision Blizzard P/E (R)
2015:
Acquired
mobile game
developer
29. Mirae Asset Daewoo Research29| 2H17 Outlook [Internet/Game/Advertising]
Global valuation trends
- Shares of Chinese and
Japanese ad agencies display
relatively high P/Es, backed by
strong growth of the Chinese
ad market and economic
recovery and solid demand in
Japan.
- Full-service ad agencies WPP
and Publicis are trading at
relatively low P/Es due to low
growth.
• For advertising stocks, growth potential (in revenue terms) is the primary investment focus. As such, investors are
advised to focus on the growth gaps among different regions and platforms.
1) Ad market growth varies from region to region: Asia > US > Europe
2) Firms with greater exposure to digital media platforms should deliver strong top- and bottom-line growth.
• At the moment, exposure to digital media platforms is considered a more important variable than regional
factors.
[Advertising]
Investment strategy
Major global advertising agencies’ 12-month forward P/E trends: Asia > US > Europe
Source: Thomson Reuters, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
VI. Investment strategy & valuation
10
14
18
22
26
30
1/17 2/17 3/17 4/17 5/17
(x) Cheil Worldwide INNOCEAN Worldwide Nasmedia
WPP (UK) Omnicom (US) Publicis (France)
Dentsu (Japan) BlueFocus (China) Avg.
31. Mirae Asset Daewoo Research31| 2H17 Outlook [Internet/Game/Advertising]
Stocks to watchTop picks are NAVER and NCsoft
Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
• Our top picks in internet/game/advertising for 2H17 are NAVER and NCsoft.
• NAVER: The AI business is likely to generate new revenue opportunities, while the shopping segment serves as a
key catalyst for growth across the company.
• NCsoft: Momentum is building for the new mobile title Lineage M. If the PC online game-focused company is able
to become a leader in mobile games as well, the stock could be re-rated higher.
• In our view, the biggest investment merit of both companies is the fact that new revenue opportunities (multiple
expansion) are emerging alongside solid existing businesses (EPS).
Our top picks in
internet/game/advertising:
NAVER and NCsoft
VII. Top picks & stocks to watch
Sector Company Rating Investment points
Internet
Kakao Buy
Content recovery; revenue
from new businesses
Interpark
Trading
Buy
Improving margins; strong
performance of tour business
Game
Netmarble
Games
Buy
Overseas launch of Lineage II:
Revolution; M&A
Com2uS
Trading
Buy
High overseas exposure;
attractive valuation
Ad
INNOCEAN
Worldwide
Buy
US business gaining traction;
M&As
Nasmedia Buy
Strength in digital media;
benefits from advertiser
competition
Cheil
Worldwide
Trading
Buy
Cost controls support steady
profits; affiliate billings
• Maintain Buy and
TP of W1,160,000
• New opportunities
- AI business
- Cloud revenue on
the horizon
• Growth of existing
businesses
- Shopping is key
catalyst of growth
- Progress in mobile
offerings
• Maintain Buy and
TP of W1,160,000
• New opportunities
- AI business
- Cloud revenue on
the horizon
• Growth of existing
businesses
- Shopping is key
catalyst of growth
- Progress in mobile
offerings
• Maintain Buy and
TP of W500,000
• New title
momentum
- Launch of Lineage
M (mobile)
- Lineage Eternal (PC)
under development
• Consolidation
- Mobile games are
growing more
advanced
- M&A activities
• Maintain Buy and
TP of W500,000
• New title
momentum
- Launch of Lineage
M (mobile)
- Lineage Eternal (PC)
under development
• Consolidation
- Mobile games are
growing more
advanced
- M&A activities
Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research
32. Mirae Asset Daewoo Research32| 2H17 Outlook [Internet/Game/Advertising]
(Maintain)
Target Price (12M, W)
Share Price (5/18/17, W)
1,279
EPS Growth (17F, %)
Market EPS Growth (17F, %)
P/E (17F, x)
Market P/E (17F, x)
KOSPI
Market Cap (Wbn) FY (Dec.) 12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17F 12/18F 12/19F
Shares Outstanding (mn) Revenue (Wbn) 2,758 3,254 4,023 4,715 5,467 6,240
Free Float (%) OP (Wbn) 758 830 1,102 1,274 1,548 1,812
Foreign Ownership (%) OP margin (%) 27.5 25.5 27.4 27.0 28.3 29.0
Beta (12M) NP (Wbn) 454 519 749 891 1,073 1,249
52-Week Low EPS (W) 13,787 15,737 22,732 27,025 32,556 37,905
52-Week High ROE (%) 27.8 26.5 26.2 22.1 21.6 20.5
(%) 1M 6M 12M P/E (x) 51.6 41.8 34.1 30.5 25.3 21.7
Absolute 5.9 6.9 18.1 P/B (x) 8.7 6.8 5.2 4.7 4.0 3.4
Relative -0.5 -7.7 1.0 Div.Yield (%) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2
Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests
Source: NAVER, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates
36.4
Buy
1,160,000
824,000
Expected Return 41%
OP (17F, Wbn) 1,274
Consensus OP (17F, Wbn)
18.9
61.4
0.61
687,000
900,000
30.5
9.8
2,286.82
27,161
33
76.6
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
16.5 16.9 17.1 17.5
NAVER
KOSPI
AI and shopping business to drive growth
Top pick
Investment points
• New businesses: AI platform Clova, translation app Papago, and releases of smart devices are likely to help
drive cloud revenue.
• Existing businesses: Shopping segment serves as a key catalyst for growth across the company, particularly in
search ads and payment.
• Global businesses: Content (Webtoon), camera (SNOW), and video (V Live) services/apps are expected to go
global.
Risk factors
• Worries over increasing investments and the slow adoption of new business models
• Slowing growth and relatively low margins at consolidated subsidiary LINE
NAVER (035420 KS)
34. Mirae Asset Daewoo Research34| 2H17 Outlook [Internet/Game/Advertising]
(Maintain)
Target Price (12M, W)
Share Price (5/18/17, W)
461
EPS Growth (17F, %)
Market EPS Growth (17F, %)
P/E (17F, x)
Market P/E (17F, x)
KOSPI
Market Cap (Wbn) FY (Dec.) 12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17F 12/18F 12/19F
Shares Outstanding (mn) Revenue (Wbn) 839 838 984 1,580 1,784 1,857
Free Float (%) OP (Wbn) 278 237 329 516 666 711
Foreign Ownership (%) OP margin (%) 33.1 28.3 33.4 32.7 37.3 38.3
Beta (12M) NP (Wbn) 230 165 272 390 504 539
52-Week Low EPS (W) 10,486 7,542 12,416 17,800 23,005 24,559
52-Week High ROE (%) 18.4 10.6 14.9 19.1 21.1 19.2
(%) 1M 6M 12M P/E (x) 17.4 28.2 19.9 21.0 16.3 15.2
Absolute 4.3 47.2 56.5 P/B (x) 2.7 2.6 2.7 3.5 3.0 2.6
Relative -2.0 27.1 33.9 Div.Yield (%) 1.9 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.6
Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests
Source: NCSOFT, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates
36.4
Buy
500,000
374,000
Expected Return 34%
OP (17F, Wbn) 516
Consensus OP (17F, Wbn)
43.4
37.3
0.84
218,000
378,500
21.0
9.8
2,286.82
8,201
22
84.8
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
16.5 16.9 17.1 17.5
NCSOFT
KOSPI
Going mobile with Lineage
Top pick
Investment points
• New title momentum: NCsoft is set to launch its new mobile MMORPG Lineage M, which marries the strengths
of the PC version with the convenience of mobile games.
• Margin support: Revenue from long-running PC games and royalties help prop up profit margins.
• Enhanced fundamentals: A successful transition from PC to mobile could trigger a re-rating.
Risk factors
• Volatility around the schedule of new title releases and uncertainties surrounding their prospects for success
• Structural cost increase related to the mobile game business
NCsoft (036570 KS)
38. Mirae Asset Daewoo Research38| 2H17 Outlook [Internet/Game/Advertising]
Focus on earnings recovery and robust tour division
Investment points
• Improvement in profitability: Lee Sang-kyu’s return to the CEO post and the removal of one-off expenses seen
in 2016 should support profitability improvement.
• Robust tour division: Market conditions look favorable for the tour division thanks to long holidays in May and
October of this year; the division plans to focus on higher-margin overseas package tours.
• Concierge commerce services: Adoption of the chatbot service TalkJipsa (in 2Q16) is likely to lead to
improvement in service quality and purchase volume.
Risk factors
• Competitors’ expansion into tour and ticket sales businesses
• Low profitability in the shopping and book divisions
• Security risks, as evidenced by last year’s customer data leak
Interpark (108790 KQ)
(Maintain)
Target Price (12M, W)
Share Price (5/18/17, W)
26
EPS Growth (17F, %)
Market EPS Growth (17F, %)
P/E (17F, x)
Market P/E (17F, x)
KOSDAQ
Market Cap (Wbn) FY (Dec.) 12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17F 12/18F 12/19F
Shares Outstanding (mn) Revenue (Wbn) 407 402 466 510 530 546
Free Float (%) OP (Wbn) 17 23 9 29 26 29
Foreign Ownership (%) OP margin (%) 4.2 5.7 1.9 5.7 4.9 5.3
Beta (12M) NP (Wbn) 11 17 2 18 16 18
52-Week Low EPS (W) 335 516 71 548 491 548
52-Week High ROE (%) 8.5 10.5 1.4 10.5 8.7 9.1
(%) 1M 6M 12M P/E (x) 68.6 44.3 144.3 24.4 27.2 24.4
Absolute 23.6 17.1 -30.5 P/B (x) 4.8 4.4 2.0 2.5 2.3 2.1
Relative 23.0 13.8 -25.5 Div.Yield (%) 0.4 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7
Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests
Source: Interpark, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates
14.1
1.07
8,100
19,550
24.4
9.8
638.12
441
33
30.7
36.4
Trading Buy
15,000
13,350
Expected Return 12%
OP (17F, Wbn) 29
Consensus OP (17F, Wbn)
675.7
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
16.5 16.9 17.1 17.5
Interpark
KOSDAQ
42. Mirae Asset Daewoo Research42| 2H17 Outlook [Internet/Game/Advertising]
Solid overseas revenue and new title momentum
Investment points
• Overseas revenue: Overseas revenue contribution reached 86% in 2016, driven by the solid global
performance of Summoners War.
• Expectations for new title releases: Genre diversification of Com2uS’s mobile game portfolio will continue in
2H17; an MMORPG version of Summoners War and a mobile version of Skylanders are slated for release in
2018.
• Valuation merits: The tock is undervalued, trading at a P/E of 9x (vs. global peer average of 22x).
Risk factors
• Overreliance on a single game, Summoners War
• Volatility around new title releases and uncertainties surrounding commercial potential
• Possible cost hikes with the increase in game development projects and shift toward large-scale games (e.g.,
MMORPGs)
Com2uS (078340 KQ)
(Maintain)
Target Price (12M, W)
Share Price (5/18/17, W)
206
EPS Growth (17F, %)
Market EPS Growth (17F, %)
P/E (17F, x)
Market P/E (17F, x)
KOSDAQ
Market Cap (Wbn) FY (Dec.) 12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17F 12/18F 12/19F
Shares Outstanding (mn) Revenue (Wbn) 235 434 513 565 625 682
Free Float (%) OP (Wbn) 101 166 192 212 234 255
Foreign Ownership (%) OP margin (%) 43.0 38.2 37.4 37.5 37.4 37.4
Beta (12M) NP (Wbn) 79 126 152 166 183 199
52-Week Low EPS (W) 6,981 9,779 11,796 12,880 14,259 15,471
52-Week High ROE (%) 49.8 35.0 26.5 23.4 21.2 19.1
(%) 1M 6M 12M P/E (x) 17.3 12.1 7.4 9.0 8.2 7.5
Absolute -2.3 36.7 -13.1 P/B (x) 6.4 3.0 1.7 1.9 1.5 1.3
Relative -2.8 32.9 -6.9 Div.Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.2
Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests
Source: Com2uS, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates
24.4
0.92
78,500
141,200
9.0
9.8
638.12
1,499
13
72.6
36.4
Trading Buy
135,000
116,500
Expected Return 16%
OP (17F, Wbn) 212
Consensus OP (17F, Wbn)
9.2
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
16.5 16.9 17.1 17.5
Com2uS
KOSDAQ
44. Mirae Asset Daewoo Research44| 2H17 Outlook [Internet/Game/Advertising]
(Maintain)
Target Price (12M, W)
Share Price (5/18/17, W)
111
EPS Growth (17F, %)
Market EPS Growth (17F, %)
P/E (17F, x)
Market P/E (17F, x)
KOSPI
Market Cap (Wbn) FY (Dec.) 12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17F 12/18F 12/19F
Shares Outstanding (mn) Revenue (Wbn) 745 988 1,052 1,136 1,226 1,300
Free Float (%) OP (Wbn) 83 93 99 106 115 122
Foreign Ownership (%) OP margin (%) 11.1 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.4 9.4
Beta (12M) NP (Wbn) 82 70 65 62 67 71
52-Week Low EPS (W) 4,551 3,696 3,267 3,091 3,336 3,525
52-Week High ROE (%) 21.5 13.7 10.4 9.1 9.2 9.1
(%) 1M 6M 12M P/E (x) - 18.9 17.5 22.1 20.5 19.4
Absolute 7.4 6.0 -20.6 P/B (x) - 2.3 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.7
Relative 0.9 -8.4 -32.0 Div.Yield (%) - 1.3 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.4
Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests
Source: INNOCEAN Worldwide, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates
36.4
Buy
90,000
68,400
Expected Return 32%
OP (17F, Wbn) 106
Consensus OP (17F, Wbn)
-5.4
17.6
0.95
56,200
88,800
22.1
9.8
2,286.82
1,368
20
56.5
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
16.5 16.9 17.1 17.5
INNOCEAN
Worldwide
KOSPI
New car marketing and M&A momentum
Investment points
• Revenue growth in 2H17: Earnings momentum is likely to accelerate in 2H17 with the releases of major new
car models by group affiliates.
• High business volume driven by group affiliates over the medium/long term: We highlight HMC’s plan to roll
out six models under its Genesis brand by 2020 and the bright outlook for global marketing demand.
• M&A plans: Deals are expected in North America ahead of the early-2018 expiry of Kia’s contract with a local
creative agency.
Risk factors
• Concerns over tighter regulations on chaebols and related-party transactions under the new administration
• Possible earnings slowdowns and uncertainties facing group affiliates (e.g., HMC and Kia)
• High reliance on group affiliates
INNOCEAN Worldwide (214320 KS)
50. Mirae Asset Daewoo Research50| 2H17 Outlook [Internet/Game/Advertising]
[Conclusion] Focus on game changers
Game
[Increasing sophistication of mobile titles
& revival of IP]
Internet
[AI & shopping to act as catalysts]
Advertising
[Demand for global brand marketing]
52. Mirae Asset Daewoo Research52| 2H17 Outlook [Internet/Game/Advertising]
APPENDIX 1
Equity Ratings Distribution
Buy Trading Buy Hold Sell
72.86% 15.58% 11.56% 0.00%
* Based on recommendations in the last 12-months (as of March 31, 2017)
Disclosures
As of the publication date, Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. and/or its affiliates do not have any special interest with the subject company and do not own 1% or more of the subject
company's shares outstanding.
Stock Ratings Industry Ratings
Buy : Relative performance of 20% or greater Overweight : Fundamentals are favorable or improving
Trading Buy: Relative performance of 10% or greater, but with volatility Neutral : Fundamentals are steady without any material changes
Hold : Relative performance of -10% and 10% Underweight: Fundamentals are unfavorable or worsening
Sell : Relative performance of -10%
Ratings and Target Price History (Share price (─), Target price (▬), Not covered (■), Buy (▲), Trading Buy (■), Hold (●), Sell (◆))
* Our investment rating is a guide to the relative return of the stock versus the market over the next 12 months.
* Although it is not part of the official ratings at Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd., we may call a trading opportunity in case there is a technical or short-term material development.
* The target price was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on the analyst’s estimate of future earnings.
* The achievement of the target price may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic conditions.
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
May 15 May 16 May 17
(W) NAVER
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
May 15 May 16 May 17
(W) Com2uS
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
May 15 May 16 May 17
(W) NCSOFT
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
May 15 May 16 May 17
(W) Kakao
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
May 15 May 16 May 17
(W) Nasmedia
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
May 15 May 16 May 17
(W) INNOCEAN Worldwide
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
May 15 May 16 May 17
(W) Cheil Worldwide
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
May 15 May 16 May 17
(W) Interpark
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
May 15 May 16 May 17
(W) Netmarble Games Corporation
53. Mirae Asset Daewoo Research53| 2H17 Outlook [Internet/Game/Advertising]
Analyst Certification
The research analysts who prepared this report (the “Analysts”) are registered with the Korea Financial Investment Association and are subject to Korean securities regulations. They are
neither registered as research analysts in any other jurisdiction nor subject to the laws and regulations thereof. Opinions expressed in this publication about the subject securities and
companies accurately reflect the personal views of the Analysts primarily responsible for this report. Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. (“Mirae Asset Daewoo”) policy prohibits its Analysts
and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the Analyst’s area of coverage, and the Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or advisory board
member of the subject companies. Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject companies in the past
12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report. No part of the compensation of the Analysts was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the
specific recommendations or views contained in this report but, like all employees of Mirae Asset Daewoo, the Analysts receive compensation that is determined by overall firm
profitability, which includes revenues from, among other business units, the institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading and private client division. At the time of
publication of this report, the Analysts do not know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or Mirae Asset Daewoo except as otherwise stated
herein.
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APPENDIX 1
54. Mirae Asset Daewoo Research54| 2H17 Outlook [Internet/Game/Advertising]
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