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Kegley Chapter 3

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Kegley Chapter 3

  1. 1. Chapter 3: Foreign Policy Decision Making<br />
  2. 2. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Transnational Actors<br />Countries<br />International organizations<br />Multinational corporations<br />Nongovernmental organizations<br />Indigenous nationalities<br />Terrorist networks<br />Individuals <br />2<br />
  3. 3. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Foreign Policy Analysis <br />Bureaucracies<br />Decision-making in organizations<br />Psychological characteristics of leaders <br />3<br />
  4. 4. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Most Foreign Policy Analysis Centers on the Executive Branch<br />The head of government is responsible for making policy<br />The country needs to have a single voice abroad<br />Heads of government tend to make foreign policy because they control the executive branch of government<br />4<br />
  5. 5. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Legislatures and Courts in Foreign Policy <br />The “power of the purse”<br />Courts’ jurisdiction generally limited to domestic affairs <br />“Pentagon Papers” 1971<br />5<br />
  6. 6. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />The Rational Action Model <br />A logical attempt to achieve an identifiable goal<br />Calculates costs and benefits<br />What goal does this policy serve?<br />6<br />
  7. 7. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Expected Utility Theory <br />Payoffs and profitability<br />Does not seek optimum solution, but the policy with best ratio of payoff/probability<br />7<br />
  8. 8. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Bureaucracies in Foreign Policies <br />Department of State and Department of Defense <br />CIA and NSA<br />Different bureaucracies have distinct, and often competing, interests. <br />8<br />
  9. 9. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />The Organizational Process Model <br />9<br />Procedures influence decision content<br />Standard operating procedures<br />Efficiency is goal, difficulties when dealing with unique situations<br />
  10. 10. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Small Group Decision Making <br />Groupthink<br />May be caused by need for consensus<br />10<br />
  11. 11. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Individual Decision Making <br />Perception and misperception <br />Motivated and unmotivated bias<br />Bounded rationality <br />11<br />
  12. 12. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Attribution Theory <br />Fundamental Attribution Bias<br />Naïve scientists<br />Pre-existing beliefs<br />Security dilemma <br />12<br />
  13. 13. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Historical Lessons<br />The Lessons of Munich<br />The Lessons of Vietnam<br />Future Lessons of Iraq? <br />13<br />
  14. 14. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Other Theories of Decision-Making<br />Prospect Theory<br />Status quo Bias <br />Motivated Bias <br />Cognitive Dissonance <br />Bolstering <br />Two-level games<br />Satisficing<br />14<br />
  15. 15. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />A “Funnel Vision” of the Influences on International Decision Making<br />15<br />
  16. 16. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Policy Making as Rational Choice<br />Problem recognition and definition<br />Goal selection<br />Identification of alternatives<br />Choice<br />Associated with realist/state as unitary actor<br />1962 Cuban Missile Crisis<br />2003 Iraq War<br />16<br />
  17. 17. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Factors Affecting Leadership Capacity<br />Personality<br />Degree of control over foreign policy<br />Sense of political efficacy<br />Amount of available information<br />Ability to deal with crises<br />“Great person” versus zeitgeist debate <br />17<br />
  18. 18. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Influences on Foreign Policy Choice <br />International <br />Polarity and polarization<br />Geographic position<br />Domestic<br />Military capabilities<br />Economic conditions<br />Type of government<br />18<br />
  19. 19. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Democratic Peace Theory <br />Asserts that democracies are more peaceful than other states.<br />Ironically, could provide a rationale for war, because a war that instills a democracy could reduce the chances of war in the long run. <br />19<br />
  20. 20. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Two Versions <br />The Simple Democratic Peace Model <br />The Dyadic View <br />Structural argument<br />Normative argument <br />Institutional argument<br />20<br />
  21. 21. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Zone of Peace <br />European Union (EU)<br />North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) <br />21<br />
  22. 22. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Interest Groups in Foreign Policy <br />What do they want? <br />Money, protection, policy<br />How do they influence foreign policy? <br />Votes, money, lobbyists<br />To what extent do interest groups drive foreign policy? <br />Very influential in the U.S., varies in other states<br />22<br />
  23. 23. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Public Opinion <br />What does public opinion look like? <br />What effect should public opinion have on policy? <br />What effect does public opinion have on foreign policy?<br />What influences public opinion on foreign policy? <br />23<br />
  24. 24. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />The Media in Foreign Policy <br />The businesses aspect of journalism<br />Efforts to influence media coverage <br />Media power: “the CNN effect” <br />24<br />
  25. 25. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Three Models of Influence <br />Rational action model<br />Bureaucratic politics model<br />Organizational process model<br />25<br />
  26. 26. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />Geographic Influence on Foreign Policy<br />26<br />
  27. 27. Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning<br />How Free is Your Country?<br />27<br />

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