Purple Perspective: The 2012 Election (January 2012 Edition)

The Purple Perspective:
The 2012 Election
January 2012

Doug Usher, Ph.D.
Managing Director, Purple Insights

815 Slaters Lane Alexandria, VA 22314 | 703.548.7877 | www.purplestrategies.com

What is The Purple Perspective?

Unbiased, data-driven analysis of the political environment
that helps our clients prepare for the future.

Key metrics put in proper historical context to offer real
insight, not just the latest spin from either side.

Updated regularly to provide the latest take on current
political conditions.

Created
by
Purple
Insights.

Please
contact
Doug
Usher
at
doug.usher@purplestrategies.com
or
703-‐548-‐7877
for
more
informaCon.

Overview

Key measures have improved since August, with positive trendlines

At the same time, Obama still lags other Presidential incumbents

Despite recent economic improvements, the sour national mood continues

Key factors to watch in coming months:

Can Obama continue the positive trends?

Economic reports – the economy remains central to this campaign

The speed with which the GOP chooses a nominee

Fundraising numbers for Obama and the GOP
Created
by
Purple
Insights.

Please
contact
Doug
Usher
at
or
703-‐548-‐7877
for
more
informaCon.

By most key metrics, Obama is at a disadvantage compared
to other incumbents, but current trends are mostly positive
Metric Implications for Short term
Incumbent change: impact on
STRUCTURAL
re-election

Growth Rate in GDP +

Growth Rate in Disposable Personal Income n/c

Unemployment Rate ++

Average Monthly Job Creation ++

OPINION
Presidential Job Approval +

Satisfaction with Direction of the Country n/c

Current State of the Economy n/c

Prospective Evaluation of the Economy ++

Personal Financial Situation Compared to Last Year n/c

Expected Financial Situation Next Year +

Consumer Sentiment +

TOTAL +

Created
by
Purple
Insights.

Please
contact
Doug
Usher
at
or
703-‐548-‐7877
for
more
informaCon.

GDP growth for Obama is much slower than for recent
successful incumbents

Growth Rate in GDP
(Third Quarter, Year 3)

Reagan 8.1%

Bush II 6.7%

Clinton 3.4%

Carter 2.9%

Obama 1.8%

Bush I 1.7%
Source:
Bureau
of
Economic
Analysis

Created
by
Purple
Insights.

Please
contact
Doug
Usher
at
or
703-‐548-‐7877
for
more
informaCon.

GDP growth is on a slight upward trend, but remains low

Growth
Rate
in
GDP

20%
Carter

Reagan

Economic
Growth
Rate
(2005
Dollars)

Bush
I

15%

Clinton

Bush
II

Obama

10%

5%

0%

-‐5%

-‐10%

1/2
2/2
3/2
4/2
1/3
2/3
3/3
4/3
1/4
2/4
3/4
4/4

Source:
Bureau
of
Economic
Analysis
Quarter/Year
in
term

Created
by
Purple
Insights.

Please
contact
Doug
Usher
at
or
703-‐548-‐7877
for
more
informaCon.

Whether the third quarter increase in GDP will find its way into
voters’ pockets remains to be seen
% Change in Disposable
Personal Income
(Third Quarter, Year 3)

Reagan 6.1

Bush II 5.7

Clinton 3.0

Carter 2.3

Bush I 0.8

Obama -1.9

Source:
Bureau
of
Economic
Analysis

Created
by
Purple
Insights.

Please
contact
Doug
Usher
at
or
703-‐548-‐7877
for
more
informaCon.

Disposable income has been declining consistently

Carter

Disposable
Personal
Income

13%
Reagan

%
Change
in
Disposable
Personal

Income

Bush
I

Clinton

Bush
II

Obama

8%

(2005
Dollars)

3%

-‐2%

-‐7%

1/2
2/2
3/2
4/2
1/3
2/3
3/3
4/3
1/4
2/4
3/4
4/4

Source:
Bureau
of
Economic
Analysis
Quarter/Year
in
term

Created
by
Purple
Insights.

Please
contact
Doug
Usher
at
or
703-‐548-‐7877
for
more
informaCon.

Unemployment continues to put Obama in a poor position, though
other incumbents have recovered

Unemployment Rate
(December Year 3)

Clinton 5.6%

Bush II 5.7%

Carter 6.0%

Bush I 7.3%

Reagan 8.3%

Obama 8.5%
Source:
Bureau
of
Labor
StaCsCcs

Created
by
Purple
Insights.

Please
contact
Doug
Usher
at
or
703-‐548-‐7877
for
more
informaCon.

The unemployment rate is on a short-term trend that is similar to
Reagan’s
Unemployment
Rate

11%
Carter

Reagan

Bush
I

10%

Clinton

Unemployment
Rate

Bush
II

9%
Obama

8%

7%

6%

5%

4%

1/3
2/3
3/3
4/3
5/3
6/3
7/3
8/3
9/3
10/3
11/3
12/3
1/4
2/4
3/4
4/4
5/4
6/4
7/4
8/4
9/4
10/4
11/4

Source:
Bureau
of
Labor
StaCsCcs
Month/Year
in
term

Created
by
Purple
Insights.

Please
contact
Doug
Usher
at
or
703-‐548-‐7877
for
more
informaCon.

Job creation since the 2010 midterms is steady, though not
remarkable

Average Monthly
Job Creation
(Midterm Elections through December Year 3)
(In Thousands)

Reagan 237

Clinton 203

Carter 194

Obama 135

Bush II -4

Bush I -76
Source:
Bureau
of
Labor
StaCsCcs

Created
by
Purple
Insights.

Please
contact
Doug
Usher
at
or
703-‐548-‐7877
for
more
informaCon.

Improved monthly reports could help buoy Obama

1200

Monthly
Job
CreaIon

Carter

1000
Reagan

Bush
I

Clinton

800

Bush
II

Jobs
Created
(In
Thousands)

Obama

600

400

200

0

-‐200

-‐400

-‐600

1/3
2/3
3/3
4/3
5/3
6/3
7/3
8/3
9/3
10/3
11/3
12/3
1/4
2/4
3/4
4/4
5/4
6/4
7/4
8/4
9/4
10/4
11/4

Source:
Bureau
of
Labor
StaCsCcs
Month/Year
in
term

Created
by
Purple
Insights.

Please
contact
Doug
Usher
at
or
703-‐548-‐7877
for
more
informaCon.

Obama’s job approval is at the low end for all incumbents at this
point in his term

Do you approve or disapprove of the
way _____ is handling his job as
president?
% Saying Approve
(January Year 4)

Bush II 56%

Carter 55%

Reagan 53%

Clinton 47%

Obama 46%

Bush I 45%
Source:
Gallup

Created
by
Purple
Insights.

Please
contact
Doug
Usher
at
or
703-‐548-‐7877
for
more
informaCon.

50% appears to be a key demarcation line, and Obama
remains below it but has a positive trend
Do you approve or disapprove of the way _____ is handling his job
as president?

90%

Job
Approval

80%

70%

%
Approving

60%

50%

40%

30%
Carter

Reagan

20%
Bush
I

Clinton

10%
Bush
II

Obama

0%

1/3
2/3
3/3
4/3
5/3
6/3
7/3
8/3
9/3
10/3
11/3
12/3
1/4
2/4
3/4
4/4
5/4
6/4
7/4
8/4
9/4
10/4
11/4

Source:
Gallup
Month/Year
in
term

Created
by
Purple
Insights.

Please
contact
Doug
Usher
at
or
703-‐548-‐7877
for
more
informaCon.

Satisfaction with the country’s direction is extremely low

In
general,
are
you
saCsﬁed
or
dissaCsﬁed
with

the
way
things
are
going
in
the
United
States

at
this
Cme?
% Saying Satisfied
(November Year 3)

Bush II 44%

Bush I 32%

Clinton 30%

Obama 12%

Reagan --

Source:
Gallup

Created
by
Purple
Insights.

Please
contact
Doug
Usher
at
or
703-‐548-‐7877
for
more
informaCon.

There has been slight improvement in overall satisfaction in the
past few months
In
general,
are
you
saCsfied
or
dissaCsfied
with
the
way
things
are
going
in
the

United
States
at
this
Cme?

60%
SaIsfacIon
with
Way
Things
Are
Going
in
the
US

50%

%
Saying
SaIsfied

40%

30%

20%

Bush
I

10%
Clinton

Bush
II

Obama

0%

1/3
2/3
3/3
4/3
5/3
6/3
7/3
8/3
9/3
10/3
11/3
12/3
1/4
2/4
3/4
4/4
5/4
6/4
7/4
8/4
9/4
10/4
11/4

Source:
Gallup
Month/Year
in
term

Created
by
Purple
Insights.

Please
contact
Doug
Usher
at
or
703-‐548-‐7877
for
more
informaCon.

Few offer positive evaluations of the economy

How
would
you
rate
economic
condiCons
in

this
country
today
-‐-‐
as
excellent,
good,
only

% Saying
fair,
or
poor?

Excellent or Good
(January Year 4)

Bush II 40%

Clinton 29%

Bush I 12%

Obama 11%

Reagan --

Source:
Gallup

Created
by
Purple
Insights.

Please
contact
Doug
Usher
at
or
703-‐548-‐7877
for
more
informaCon.

Recent winning incumbents have seen substantial upswings in
election years
How
would
you
rate
economic
condiCons
in
this
country
today
-‐-‐
as
excellent,

good,
only
fair,
or
poor?

50%
Current
State
of
the
Economy

45%

Bush
I

40%
Clinton

%
Saying
Excellent/Good

Bush
II

35%
Obama

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

1/3
2/3
3/3
4/3
5/3
6/3
7/3
8/3
9/3
10/3
11/3
12/3
1/4
2/4
3/4
4/4
5/4
6/4
7/4
8/4
9/4
10/4
11/4

Source:
Gallup
Month/Year
in
term

Created
by
Purple
Insights.

Please
contact
Doug
Usher
at
or
703-‐548-‐7877
for
more
informaCon.

Just a quarter see an improving economy, though Obama is
positioned alongside other successful incumbents

Do
you
think
the
naConal
economy
is
geng

% Saying Better
be]er,
staying
the
same,
or
geng
worse?
(December Year 3)

Reagan 46%

Bush II 35%

Obama 27%

Clinton 16%

Bush I 5%
Source:
American
Research
Group

*Pre-‐May
2011
quesCon
wording:
For
each
item
I
name,
please
tell
me
if
it’s
geng
BETTER,
geng
WORSE,
or
staying
about
the
same.
How
about
[ITEM]?
Is
that

geng
MUCH
be]er/worse
or
SOMEWHAT
be]er/worse?
The
naConal
economy.
(Washington
Post)

Created
by
Purple
Insights.

Please
contact
Doug
Usher
at
or
703-‐548-‐7877
for
more
informaCon.

There has been a recent, sharp increase in positive belief about
the economy
Do
you
think
the
naConal
economy
is
geng
be]er,
staying
the
same,
or

geng
worse?

60%

ProspecIve
Economic
EvaluaIon

Reagan

Bush
I

50%
Clinton

Bush
II

%
Saying
GeQng
BeSer

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

1/3
2/3
3/3
4/3
5/3
6/3
7/3
8/3
9/3
10/3
11/3
12/3
1/4
2/4
3/4
4/4
5/4
6/4
7/4
8/4
9/4
10/4
11/4

Month/Year
in
term

Source:
American
Research
Group

*Pre-‐May
2011
quesCon
wording:
For
each
item
I
name,
please
tell
me
if
it’s
geng
BETTER,
geng
WORSE,
or
staying
about
the
same.
How
about
[ITEM]?
Is
that

geng
MUCH
be]er/worse
or
SOMEWHAT
be]er/worse?
The
naConal
economy.
(Washington
Post)

Created
by
Purple
Insights.

Please
contact
Doug
Usher
at
or
703-‐548-‐7877
for
more
informaCon.

Retrospective evaluations of personal finances are at lows for
an incumbent
Would
you
say
that
you
(and
your
family
living

there)
are
be]er
off
or
worse
off
financially

than
you
were
a
year
ago?
% Saying Better
(June Year 3*)

Bush II 47%

Reagan 42%

Clinton 40%

Bush I 30%

Obama 28%

Source:
Thomson
Reuters
and
The
University
of
Michigan
poll

*January
Year
4
data
are
displayed
for
previous
presidents;
June
Year
3
data
is
the
most
recently
available
for
Obama.

Created
by
Purple
Insights.

Please
contact
Doug
Usher
at
or
703-‐548-‐7877
for
more
informaCon.

At the same time, the trend is positive for Obama
Would
you
say
that
you
(and
your
family
living
there)
are
be]er
off
or
worse
off

financially
than
you
were
a
year
ago?

60%
Financial
SituaIon
Compared
to
Last
Year

%
Saying
BeSer
than
Last
Year

50%

40%

30%

20%

Reagan

Bush
I

10%

Clinton

Bush
II

Obama

0%

1/1
3/1
5/1
7/1
9/1
11/1
1/2
3/2
5/2
7/2
9/2
11/2
1/3
3/3
5/3
7/3
9/3
11/3
1/4
3/4
5/4
7/4
9/4
11/4

Month/Year
in
term

Source:
Thomson
Reuters
and
The
University
of
Michigan

Created
by
Purple
Insights.

Please
contact
Doug
Usher
at
or
703-‐548-‐7877
for
more
informaCon.

There is little optimism about potential economic improvement

A
year
from
now,
do
you
expect
the
financial
situaCon

in
your
household
to
be
be]er
than
it
is
today,
the

same
as
it
is
today,
or
worse
than
it
is
today?
% Saying Better
(December Year 3)

Clinton 37%

Bush II 37%

Reagan 35%

Bush I 31%

Obama 23%

Source:
American
Research
Group

*Pre-‐2011
quesCon
wording:
Now
looking
ahead-‐-‐do
you
think
that
a
year
from
now
you
(and
your
family
living
there)
will
be
be]er
off
financially,

or
worse
off,
or
just
about
the
same
as
now?
(Thomson
Reuters
and
The
University
of
Michigan)

Created
by
Purple
Insights.

Please
contact
Doug
Usher
at
or
703-‐548-‐7877
for
more
informaCon.

Yet this measure is also improving
A
year
from
now,
do
you
expect
the
financial
situaCon
in
your
household
to
be
be]er
than

it
is
today,
the
same
as
it
is
today,
or
worse
than
it
is
today?

60%
Financial
SituaIon
Next
Year

50%

%
Saying
BeSer
Next
Year

40%

30%

20%

Reagan

Bush
I

10%
Clinton

Bush
II

Obama

0%

1/3
2/3
3/3
4/3
5/3
6/3
7/3
8/3
9/3
10/3
11/3
12/3
1/4
2/4
3/4
4/4
5/4
6/4
7/4
8/4
9/4
10/4
11/4

Source:
American
Research
Group

Month/Year
in
term

*Pre-‐2011
quesCon
wording:
Now
looking
ahead-‐-‐do
you
think
that
a
year
from
now
you
(and
your
family
living
there)
will
be
be]er
off
financially,

or
worse
off,
or
just
about
the
same
as
now?
(Thomson
Reuters
and
The
University
of
Michigan)

Created
by
Purple
Insights.

Please
contact
Doug
Usher
at
or
703-‐548-‐7877
for
more
informaCon.

Incumbents who won re-election enjoyed consumer confidence
much higher than Obama
The
Consumer
SenCment
Index
is
comprised
of

various
measures
of
Americans’
feelings
of

personal
ﬁnancial
security
and
views
of
the
Index Score
economy.
(December Year 3)

Reagan 94.2

Bush II 92.6

Clinton 91.0

Obama 69.9

Bush I 68.2

Source:
Thomson
Reuters
and
The
University
of
Michigan

Created
by
Purple
Insights.

Please
contact
Doug
Usher
at
or
703-‐548-‐7877
for
more
informaCon.

Obama will need to maintain the current trend to bring him
close to other successful incumbents
Consumer
SenIment

Da y

El ecCon
r

100

Dec embe
Consumer
SenIment
Index
Score

80

60

40

Reagan

Bush
I

20

Clinton

Bush
II

Obama

0

1/3
2/3
3/3
4/3
5/3
6/3
7/3
8/3
9/3
10/3
11/3
12/3
1/4
2/4
3/4
4/4
5/4
6/4
7/4
8/4
9/4
10/4
11/4

Source:
Thomson
Reuters
and
The
University
of
Michigan

Month/Year
in
term

Created
by
Purple
Insights.

Please
contact
Doug
Usher
at
or
703-‐548-‐7877
for
more
informaCon.

Overview

Key measures have improved since August, with positive trendlines

At the same time, Obama still lags other Presidential incumbents

Despite recent economic improvements, the sour national mood continues

Key factors to watch in coming months:

Can
Obama
conCnue
the
posiCve
trends?

Economic
reports
–
the
economy
remains
central
to
this
campaign

The
speed
with
which
the
GOP
chooses
a
nominee

Fundraising
numbers
for
Obama
and
the
GOP

Created
by
Purple
Insights.

Please
contact
Doug
Usher
at
or
703-‐548-‐7877
for
more
informaCon.

Purple Perspective: The 2012 Election (January 2012 Edition)

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