ProductCamp Austin 10 What you can see coming can sometimes hurt you, but you have time to prepare for it. Most often it's what you *can't* see that will smack you solidly upside the head and upset your business or non-profit. There are lots of reasons for not seeing risk, including cognitive bias - we all ignore data that doesn't fit our world-view, it's part of our built-in human pattern recognition circuitry. I'll introduce a few simple scenario planning concepts and process steps as antidotes to cognitive bias, blind spots, and other impediments to exploring the future and proper risk mitigation. Session Category: Product Strategy Target Audience: PM for Entrepreneurs Session Format: Presentation

1. Here’s a scenario for you –
Effectively address risk by using scenarios
Paul Teich
Tech Industry Analyst

3. @PCAustin
#PCATX
@paulrteich
www.linkedin.com/in/paulteich
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4. Scenarios: future market context
Scenarios are a self-consistent set of stories about
plausible futures - they highlight future uncertainty
Scenarios are not
Scenarios are not
strategy
predictions
They create
Do not expect
context for
that any single
strategy
scenario will be
“correct” or Metaphor: flying
“the” future aircraft designs
through various
Can’t assign
wind tunnel
probabilities
configurations
40+ years of Scenario Planning best practices

5. Uncertainty and scenarios frame strategy
Scenarios are a consistent
framework to encourage
constructive dialog
They “open the aperture” for
stakeholders to consider
alternatives they would
otherwise dismiss without
thinking critically about them
How will you differentiate
ourselves in each scenario?

6. Uncertainty defines scenarios
What is it we want to
know about our future?
Bound our scope and
market windows
Do the homework
Look for uncertainty

7. What is uncertain about a future?
Structuring future scenarios and
acknowledging risk
Pick pairs of uncertainties
Play with them
Settle on uncertainties that best
illustrate potential risk and
potential reward
Write a set of scenarios that talk to
how the uncertainties might
resolve themselves

8. Scenario planning process
Core Team Larger Group
Create planning question Brainstorming #1 “Beliefs”
(scope) and prompts for… “I believe…”
Diverge
Topical investigations and Brainstorming #2 “Assertions”
create prompts for… “We believe…”
Converge
Scenario structure and high- Brainstorming #3 “Dynamics”
level dynamics Review/critique structure and
brainstorm scenario dynamics
Draft scenarios Consistency and completeness
checking
Strategic planning simulations, publication, etc.

9. Scenario deliverables
Differentiating structure based on
Structure
critical uncertainties and events
Scenario A description of our market or industry
Descriptions in each alternate future
Platform Describe “dominant design” features
Descriptions in each future
Events that determine which scenario
Guideposts features are evolving

10. Client scenario map 2002
Uncertainties
Scenarios Privacy, Security, Software Performance Drivers 3G Internet
and Ownership
Flat-Lined No interoperable
standards emerge;
No killer apps were written or user interface ease-of-use
point solutions exist
for every service. breakthroughs made.
Islands of Utility
x86 Nirvana New PC software performance drivers have emerged. The telecom industry
Because the drivers are not yet evident and beyond our ability to and ISPs fail to deliver
predict accurately, we assume the following: The consumer driver is wide-area high-speed
related to integration with entertainment and other home systems –
data services.
by 2006 it unifies and simplifies consumer control over life at home
and enhances the consumer entertainment experience by providing
easy means to find and retrieve content wherever it resides (on the PC,
An interoperable in consumer electronics devices, over the Web, etc.). The commercial
PSO solution driver is related to collaboration – by 2005 it increases team
achieves productivity within organizations and across the extended enterprise.
ARMy of significant market No killer apps were written or user interface ease-of-use The telecom industry
Darkness penetration. breakthroughs made for the PC. Incremental user interface succeeds in creating
breakthroughs occurred in mobile Internet usage, creating greater both infrastructure and
utility for much of the market. Web services provide a software demand for 3G Internet
applications framework independent of handheld architecture or OS.
services, pushing the
Collaboration is an enterprise killer app, as in x86 Nirvana, but it
applies to mobile devices and is not a PC utility driver. By 2005 mobile
focus of computing to
collaboration increases team productivity within organizations and an anytime, anywhere
across the extended enterprise. model.

11. Client scenario map 2002
Uncertainties
Scenarios Privacy, Security, Software Performance Drivers 3G Internet
and Ownership
Flat-Lined No interoperable
standards emerge;
No killer apps were written or user interface ease-of-use
Apple created the content
point solutions exist
store and app ecosystem
for every service. breakthroughs made.
Islands of Utility
x86 Nirvana One 4yr scenario became The telecom industry
generally
New PC software performance drivers have emerged.
Because the drivers are not yet evident and beyond our ability to
and ISPs fail to deliver
true 8 years later… high-speed
predict accurately, we assume the following: The consumer driver is
wide-area
related to integration with entertainment and other home systems –
data services.
this is as close to a “win” as it gets!
by 2006 it unifies and simplifies consumer control over life at home
and enhances the consumer entertainment experience by providing
easy means to find and retrieve content wherever it resides (on the PC,
An interoperable in consumer electronics devices, over the Web, etc.). The commercial
PSO solution driver is related to collaboration – by 2005 it increases team
achieves productivity within organizations and across the extended enterprise.
significant market No killer apps were written or user interface ease-of-use The telecom industry
ARMy of penetration. breakthroughs made for the PC. Incremental user interface succeeds in creating
Darkness breakthroughs occurred in mobile Internet usage, creating greater both infrastructure and
utility for much of the market. Web services provide a software demand for 3G Internet
applications framework independent of handheld architecture or OS.
services, pushing the
Collaboration is an enterprise killer app, as in x86 Nirvana, but it
applies to mobile devices and is not a PC utility driver. By 2005 mobile
focus of computing to
collaboration increases team productivity within organizations and an anytime, anywhere
across the extended enterprise. model.

12. Client scenario map 2009
Kinda missed services…
Locality
Local Hosted
End-to-End Apps Thundercloud
User Experience
(New Apps) (New Apps)
Non-PC
PC-Based Today Hosted Client
Windows and (New Apps) (Good Enough)
Mac Enterprise
Created this as bridge to next…

13. Server scenario map 2009
Kinda missed services…
Scalability
Specific Applications General Purpose
Hosted Cloud Experience
Application Focus
Client
Experience
Hardware+ Hyper-Scale
(Today)
Business

14. Discussion
Thanks!