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Choices on the road ahead

Choices on the road ahead

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The mobility disruption around the corner will largely initiated by three technology advances, but the knock-on impacts will be shaped by economic and social choices, as much as technology.

The mobility disruption around the corner will largely initiated by three technology advances, but the knock-on impacts will be shaped by economic and social choices, as much as technology.

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Choices on the road ahead

  1. 1. 00 XXX 2014 Choices on the road ahead Kevin McCullagh Eröffnung des Bereichs MOVE, Telekom Design Gallery 18 September 2017
  2. 2. The car had some foreseen consequences
  3. 3. 4 US Horse Population Million equines 1850 1870 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 2000 5 3 2222 24 19 14 8 8 25 Horses gave way to cars
  4. 4. 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 90% 100% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Householdsowningcars US Buerau Census data 30% 20% 10% 1908 Model T enters production 1926 Route 66 established 1975 First McDonalds drive thru 1937 Golden gate bridge opens 1952 First walk/don’t walk signal in NY Knock-on effects took decades to unfold
  5. 5. The car had many unforeseen consequences
  6. 6. Out of town shopping ‘It was easy to predict mass car ownership, but hard to predict Walmart.’ Carl Sagan
  7. 7. Amount of urban space dedicated to car parks
  8. 8. New leisure pursuits
  9. 9. The road trip
  10. 10. New industries
  11. 11. 1. General Motors 6. Chrysler 2. Exxon Mobil 7. Armour 3. U.S. Steel 8. Gulf Oil 4. General Electric 9. Mobil 5. Esmark 10. DuPont America’s biggest companies in 1955 GM Exhibition assembly line 1955Fortune 500 Revenue
  12. 12. America’s biggest companies in 2017 Apple HQ, Cupertino, CA 1. Apple Inc. 2. Alphabet Inc. 3. Microsoft 8. Johnson Johnson 4. Amazon.com 9. J. P. Morgan Chase 5. Berkshire Hathaway 10. Wells Fargo Market value 6. Facebook 7. Exxon Mobil Fortune 500
  13. 13. 3 waves 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 MaaS Mobility as a service 1 AV Autonomous vehicles 3 EV Electric vehicles 2
  14. 14. Source: 2km1km 5km 10km 15km+ Costandconvenience (Price / Comfort / Flexibility / Speed) Bus Scooter Tram Taxi Minicab Walk Luxury chauffeur Metro Bike Typical urban journey length Private car Dynamic minibus Uses data to determine routes and offer point to point pick-ups and drop-offs, e.g. Bridj Mobility services Hailable mini cab Mini cab that can be hailed with an app, e.g. Uber Action zone Motorbike Multi- modal payment Taxi hailing apps Parking services Multi- modal planner Navigation P2P car sharing Car owners rent their cars directly to other consumers, e.g. RelayRides Free- floating car sharing Cars are collected from and returned to, any parking space within a pre-defined area, e.g. DriveNow Shared Scooter Shared bike Micro car sharing For smaller (typically 3-5) pre-determined groups of users, e.g. Audi Unite Point-to-point car sharing Back-to-base car sharing e-bike Bicycle with integrated electrical motor for propulsion, e.g. GoCycle Mobility as a Service
  15. 15. Richer mobility service ecosystem New diverse mobility modes Multi-modal mobility app Seamless payments 2003 London congestion charging begins 2004 ZipCar launches 1980s High occupancy vehicle lanes in the USA 1982 Athens Ring Odd/Even system 2014 London congestion nears pre-charging levels 2020 Paris to ban diesel cars 2010 London’s bike scheme launched 2034 Hamburg to ban cars from centre 2030 Helsinki target to eliminates private-car ownership 2025 Madrid aim to ban all diesel cars 2019 Oslo to ban all cars from city centre 2040 DfT expects 25% increase in traffic since 2015 UK and France to ban diesel and petrol car production Squeeze on car use Higher parking costs Congestion charging Lower speed limits Traffic-calming measures Stricter emission laws No-car developments Limited car zones More car deterrents and alternatives
  16. 16. Peak car? UK car sales 1.75m 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 1.85m 1.95m 2.05m 2.15m 2.25m 2.35m 2.45m 2.55m 2.65m SMMT (2015)
  17. 17. But cars have never been so popular (with drivers) UK car sales 1.75m 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 1.85m 1.95m 2.05m 2.15m 2.25m 2.35m 2.45m 2.55m 2.65m SMMT (2015)
  18. 18. But cars have never been so popular (with drivers) UK car sales 1.75m 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 1.85m 1.95m 2.05m 2.15m 2.25m 2.35m 2.45m 2.55m 2.65m +57%Forecasted rise in global car sales by 2030 Euromonitor, 2015 SMMT (2015)
  19. 19. Source: Slide subtitle max 2 lines, lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit Title 1 lineOvernight charging and valeting
  20. 20. EVs
  21. 21. EV adoption forecasts Predictions and targets of EV penetration across global markets Share of car sales Share of cars on the roads 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 BNEF BNEF Carbon Tracker CEE Adam Whitmore 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Morgan Stanley Frost Sullivan Qian Zhang Tony Seba
  22. 22. 43% of UK homes don’t have access to off-street parking National grid
  23. 23. More public charging stations, pronto! 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 2520 20 15 10 5 0 Projected global car sales (millions) DIESEL ELECTRIC 11 12 13 14 15 16 1720 16 12 8 4 0 Public EV charging stations (thousands) US GER UK Source: UBS Source: The Economist, 15 September 2017
  24. 24. AVs
  25. 25. AV adoption forecasts Predictions and targets of AV penetration across global markets 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Canalys McKinsey UoTA IoEEE Amica Research Thatcham Thatcham Oliver Wyman BCG IMechE100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Tony Seba KPMG Fehr Peers Share of car sales Share of cars on the roads
  26. 26. Some foreseen consequences
  27. 27. Less accidents
  28. 28. Source: Slide subtitle max 2 lines, lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit Title 1 line Imagesource:www.motortrend.com Productivity gains
  29. 29. Less than 30 mins 30-59 min 50-59 min 90 min and greater Work from home 60% 50% 40% Commuters Commute times 30% 20% 10% 0% Philadelphia Mayor’s Office of Transportation Utilities, 2013 Impact on commute times? Average distribution commute times in New York, Washington DC, Philadelphia, Boston and Baltimore
  30. 30. Greater access to mobility Imagesource:VicHealth
  31. 31. Greater social inclusion
  32. 32. Robo taxis reach parity with public transport Robotics Trends, 2016 Current Uber LA subway Driverless taxi $1.50/mile $0.50/mile ‘When there’s no other dude in the car, the cost of Uber becomes cheaper than owning a vehicle’ Travis Kalanick Ex Uber CEO $1.25/mile
  33. 33. Less foreseen consequences
  34. 34. Greater vehicle diversity
  35. 35. Meeting cars
  36. 36. Sleeper cars
  37. 37. Source: Slide subtitle max 2 lines, lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit Title 1 lineCharger cars
  38. 38. Charger cars
  39. 39. Shoe shine New jobs and businesses
  40. 40. Source: Slide subtitle max 2 lines, lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit Title 1 line Imagesource:www.wired.com Night freight
  41. 41. Source: Slide subtitle max 2 lines, lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit Title 1 lineUrban logistics
  42. 42. Sociology before technology
  43. 43. Slide 48Section Title 1 lineHistory or future?
  44. 44. Slide 49Section Title 1 lineTechnology is only one driver of the future
  45. 45. Feminisation The rise and social impact of women
  46. 46. Technology ≠ Destiny
  47. 47. We shape technology and technology shapes us
  48. 48. Tallin experiment City gave its 430,000 residents free access to public transport in an attempt to get cars off the road, decrease congestion and make the city more accessible to low-income residents. +1.2%increase in demand for the service overall
  49. 49. New taxes
  50. 50. C20th choices
  51. 51. We join the dots @kevinmccull www.plan.london
  52. 52. Rise of affordable electric cars The first wave of truly affordable EVs is already upon us Imagesource:axt.org.uk
  53. 53. Commuters like their private bubble Even if commuting by car takes longer, people would stick it out in traffic. Some prefer this alone time, in comfort, to listen to music or just to reflect. Imagesource:axt.org.uk
  54. 54. Core message ‘Banishing the car from urban areas is becoming a common trend in many European cities.’ Jack Stewart, BBC Future news, February 2014
  55. 55. What happens when things go wrong?
  56. 56. Zero UI - A move towards effortless interactions with cars
  57. 57. Mixed economy
  58. 58. Source: Slide subtitle max 2 lines, lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit Title 1 line Imagesource:www.motortrend.com Productivity gains
  59. 59. Source: Slide subtitle max 2 lines, lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit Title 1 line Imagesource:www.wired.com Xx
  60. 60. Source: Slide subtitle max 2 lines, lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit Title 1 line Imagesource:www.partcatalog.com Productivity gains
  61. 61. PeterCampbell,October16,2016
  62. 62. We help companies work out what to do next with their products ...and why
  63. 63. Slide 68Section Title 1 lineWe’re now on the road to autonomous vehicles Imagesource:auto10.com
  64. 64. Less congestion, more speed

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