Condo and apartment market conditions on major West Coast markets

1. For: Multifamily Trends 2009 June 16, 2009 SULLIVAN GROUP REAL ESTATE ADVISORS Peter Dennehy, Sr. Vice President (858) 523-1443 x118 [email_address] Multifamily Housing Market Outlook: Developer’s Guide to Surviving the Downturn, Thriving on the Recovery

2. The Current Situation Where Are We Now?

3. GDP Growth is Declining ‘ 90-’91 Recession ‘ 81-’82 Recession ‘ 01 Recession 12/07-? Recession 1Q 2009 = -5.7% 2009* using 1 st qtr. data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, released May 29, 2009; Sullivan Group

4. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Non-Farm Employment, in Thousands); Sullivan Group May 2009 -345,000 Jobs U.S. Lost Over 6 Million Jobs Since Jan. 2008

5. So Unemployment is Increasing 81-82 Recession 90-91 Recession 2001 Recession 2009* – May Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Sullivan Group 12/07-? Recession Avg. 1980 to 2008 = 6.1% May 2009 = 9.4%

6. All Western Metros Posting Negative Employment Annual Change in Employment by Metro Area Apr ’08 vs Apr ’09 and 2009 Forecast Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Marcus & Millichap; Sullivan Group

7. 90-91 Recession 2001 Recession 12/07-? Recession 81-82 Recession 2009* as of June 11 Source: Freddie Mac; Sullivan Group June 2009* = 5.59% 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgages are Historically Low

8. U.S. Consumer Confidence is Low, But Improving 2Q09* = 54.9 *2nd Qtr 2009 as of May Source: The Conference Board, released May 26, 2009; Sullivan Group 3-Year rough patch

9. Note: 2009 as of April Source: Census Bureau, released May 28, 2009; Sullivan Group 2005 = 1,283,000 Peak 2008 = 485,000 2009*= 352,000 New Home Sales Continue to Fall: Lowest in Two Generations Stole demand from future

10. Western New Home Sales 78% Off Pace in 2005 New Home Sales, Median Price, and Average Price Western United States, 2000 - April 2009 2009 annualized using data through April. Source: National Association of Realtors; Sullivan Group

11. Existing Condo Sales 43% Off Peak in 2005 Prices at 2001 Level Existing Condo/Co-op Sales and Median Price Western United States 2009 annualized using data through April. Source: National Association of Realtors; Sullivan Group

12. Big Pullback in Multifamily Construction to Lowest Level in Three Decades Multifamily Building Permits NSA, Ths. (5+ units per building) United States 2009 annualized using data through April Source: US Census Bureau; Sullivan Group Historical Average = 355

13. U.S. Home Prices Declining Prices at 2003 Level Tracks changes I the value of the residential real estate market in 20 metropolitan regions across the US, collecting data on single-family home resales, capturing re-sold sale prices to form sale pairs. The Composite of 10 has a longer history than the Composite of 20 and includes: Boston, Chicago, Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, San Diego, San Francisco, Washington DC Source: S&P/Case-Shiller released May 26, 2009; Sullivan Group S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Selected Metropolitan Areas (Resales)

14. Existing Condo Sales 56% Off Peak in 2005 Price Declines are More Recent Phenomenon Existing Condo/Co-op Sales and Median Price United States, 2000-April 2009 2009 annualized using data through April. Source: National Association of Realtors; Sullivan Group

15. Apartment Market Showing Increased Vacancy and Flat Rent (Overall) Effective Rent and Vacancy Rate United States, 2000-2009 2009 annualized using data through April. Source: Marcus & Millichap; Sullivan Group

16. Rent and Vacancy Trends Vary at Metro Level Forecasted Apartment Vacancy Rate 2009 Source: Marcus & Millichap; Sullivan Group National Avg. 7.7%

17. Rent and Vacancy Trends Vary at Metro Level Forecasted Apartment Asking Rent Percent Change 2008 vs. 2009 Source: Marcus & Millichap; Sullivan Group

18. Significant Slowdown in Multifamily Activity in Most Western Metro Areas Annual Change in Multifamily Permits Issued YTD April 2009 versus YTD April 2008 Source: NAHB; U.S. Census Bureau; Sullivan Group

19. Looking Forward

20. There is a New Wave Behind Boomers Source: Claritas, National Center for Health Statistics; Sullivan Group Generation Born 2008 2007 % of Nation 2007 Population Eisenhowers Before 1946 62+ 17% 51M Baby Boomers 1946 – 1964 43 – 62 27% 78M Gen X 1965 – 1980 27 – 43 18% 52M Gen Y (Echo/Millenials) 1981 – 1999 8 – 27 27% 80M Gen Z 2000 and after 0 – 8 10% 30M

21. If Gen Y Acts Like Previous Generations, Rental and High Density Are Good Bets Source: Claritas, Inc.; National Center for Health Statistics; Sullivan Group

22. Rental Housing Propensity by Age Renters Dominate Under 35 Years Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006; Sullivan Group

23. 7.0% ARM interest Rates in 2000 Mar 2009=67.3% There are over 1 million homeowners more today than long-term trends would indicate 3.4% ARM interest Rates in 2004 2009* as of March Source: Census Bureau; Sullivan Group

24. Demographics are positive but, due to affordability, current and future growth will be dominated by renters Source: U.S. Census Bureau: American Community Survey; Sullivan Group Rental demand expanding after Decade of Decline

25. Demographic Shifts Over The Next 10 Years Favor Multi-Family Development Source: U.S. Census Bureau; RCLCO Apartments and Condos: Single and Roommate Rentals; Entry-Level and First Move-Up Condos Apartments and Condos: Move-Down/Downsizing And Lifestyle Product Senior Living Projected Total Population Growth Rate by Age 2008-2018

26. For: Multifamily Trends 2009 June 16, 2009 SULLIVAN GROUP REAL ESTATE ADVISORS Peter Dennehy, Sr. Vice President (858) 523-1443 x118 [email_address] Multifamily Housing Market Outlook: Developer’s Guide to Surviving the Downturn, Thriving on the Recovery