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TopCryptoSupers-May2022.pdf

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TopCryptoSupers-May2022.pdf

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Eighth Top CryptoSupercomputer mining pools, May 2022. 20 top mining pools across Bitcoin and Ethereum have a $19 billion revenue run rate. The center of crypto mining has moved to the US with 38% share, increasingly publicly traded mining companies.

Eighth Top CryptoSupercomputer mining pools, May 2022. 20 top mining pools across Bitcoin and Ethereum have a $19 billion revenue run rate. The center of crypto mining has moved to the US with 38% share, increasingly publicly traded mining companies.

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TopCryptoSupers-May2022.pdf

  1. 1. @OrionX_net May 2022 Stephen Perrenod CryptoSuper 500 – Eighth List Top Cryptocurrency Supercomputers
  2. 2. @OrionX_net ©2022 OrionX.net Digital Money Store of value Safe? Unit of account Supply? Medium of exchange Stable? Money 3.0 is: Money in the Internet “Money has become information. Bitcoin is energy securely encapsulated as information. Electrons to eternal bits.” - @moneyordebt a 500-year advance in accounting with triple-entry ledgers on a timechain Money 3.0
  3. 3. @OrionX_net ©2022 OrionX.net ✦ Cryptocurrencies (at least Bitcoin) represent Money 3.0 – 0.x – shells, beads – 1.0 – gold and silver coins – 2.0 – national fiat currencies – 3.0 – Decentralized digital Money stored in, sent across the Internet – Some might say they are simply digital assets ✦ Most of the current 19,000+ coins will prove to be worthless in the long run, the distribution of market cap falls off very steeply (power law index -1.57 of the ranking) ✦ Surprise: your Bitcoin is not in your hardware wallet or paper wallet. That just holds the keys. OrionX position Money 3.0
  4. 4. @OrionX_net ©2022 OrionX.net ▪ It’s not either/or with blockchain and bitcoin, it’s both ▪ They are each layers in an integrated stack ▪ Blockchain (or timechain) is the triple entry ledger of chained transaction blocks: sender wallet, blockchain, receiver wallet ▪ A consensus algorithm (e.g. Nakamoto) that enforces security and prevents double spending is required: Mining, it also enforces a monetary policy ▪ An incentive is required to cause the algorithm to be computed and transactions added to the chain: Cryptocurrency/Coin ▪ Smart contracts and second layer chains extend the functionality Blockchain or Bitcoin? Gold, Fiat or Bitcoin? Table 1. Advances in monetary technology. Aristotle defined the first four attributes required for money over two millennia ago. We have added Fungibility “one is as good as another” to the table. Bitcoin is private, global money on a decentralized, highly replicated leger. Monetary Technology Advances
  5. 5. @OrionX_net ©2022 OrionX.net CryptoSuper Methodology ✦ We only consider Proof of Work mined coins, since they are the only ones using significant supercomputing power – Non-mined coins usually use Proof of Stake, Pre-mining (“air drop”), or some Byzantine Fault Tolerant algorithm. They either start with mining or an air drop. – The US $ started out as Proof of Work (mining, minting) then switched to Proof of Stake (paper certificates against gold, silver) and now is an “air drop” of sorts, created by banks when new loans are made, or fiscal debt monetization, backed by reserves at the Fed. ✦ The mining protocols and hash rates vary in very large degree between coins – Total Hashrate for Bitcoin is over 200 Exahash/s and other top coins are mostly in the Terahash/s domain, considerably less ✦ Most coins (Bitcoin, Ethereum) require ASICs to be profitably mined, GPU mining still possible with Ethereum for now ✦ We compare mining pools by using the economic value of coins produced per day = number of blocks mined x number of coins per block x price per coin and adding transaction fee revenue ✦ We tabulate 20 pools producing over $200 million annual economic value in Bitcoin, Ethereum. No other coins have pools that qualify.
  6. 6. @OrionX_net ©2022 OrionX.net Supercomputing for decentralized monetary network Cryptocurrency Mining is Green Supercomputing ✦ Method: We estimate the annual economic value of mined crypto, only Proof of Work coins ✦ Bitcoin market cap over $570 billion (late May, 19+ million BTC at $30,000+) ✦ Bitcoin daily production = $27 million (miners also receive $0.3 million in fees) – money supply inflation under 1.8%, was cut in half in May, 2020 – 24 hours x 6 blocks per hour x 6.25 coins x $30,000 ✦ Annual production run rate, Bitcoin, almost $10 billion ✦ Ethereum #2 by market cap at $250 billion, daily production currently nearly equal to Bitcoin, roughly $25 million of new ETH per day ✦ Top Mining Pools produce revenue of $19 billion annually across top 2 mined coins, including new coins and transaction fees. Very little revenue from next few proof of work coins at current prices. ✦ Bitcoin mining is not dirty relative to global use of energy; also, Bitcoin, unlike most electricity outputs is not consumption, it is production that creates permanent value (mostly rising). ✦ In a 4/25/22 press release the Bitcoin Mining Council estimated that 58% of the Bitcoin mining industry electricity inputs are from sustainable sources, based on a survey of 44 miners representing 50% of all Bitcoin hashrate. They report 0.16% of global energy and only 0.08% of CO2 emissions (0.03 billion tons out of 35 billion tons).
  7. 7. @OrionX_net ©2022 OrionX.net Great Chinese Mining Shutdown ✦ The US is now the largest provider of Bitcoin mining power with a 38% share as of January 2022, following the Great Chinese Mining Shutdown of mid-2021. ✦ Rumors came out in late May 2021 about a Chinese crypto mining shutdown. This time it was serious. The ban rolled out province by province in the key mining provinces of Inner Mongolia, XinJiang, and Sichuan. The big blow came on June 19. ✦ Global hashrate has now exceeded prior high, miners in China sold or relocated many of their mining rigs. Some mining has restarted, presumably unregulated, such that China is #2 provider with 21% share, followed by Kazakhstan with 13% and Canada 6%. Russia has dropped in share. ✦ These four countries provide over ¾ of all Bitcoin mining hash rate. ✦ This data comes from the Centre for Alternative Finance, U. Cambridge, based on monitoring four of the largest Bitcoin pools. ✦ Why ban mining? 1. limit capital flight 2. control electricity usage 3. better impose regulation and taxes if the ban is relaxed in the future 4. make space for the central bank digital Yuan e-CNY <—- the real reason
  8. 8. @OrionX_net ©2022 OrionX.net ✦ A number of publicly traded Bitcoin mining companies have listed shares, these have market caps at or above ~ $400 million ✦ Most are HQ’d in the US and Canada ✦ Data from company web sites and Yahoo Finance, 5/19/22 ✦ If these and some additional Bitcoin mining public companies can implement their plans, by early 2023 they could have close to 20% of global hash rate among them Publicly traded Bitcoin Mining Companies ✦ Company Trading Symbol Market Cap $Billion EPS Price $ Hash Rate plans in Exahashes /sec Bitcoin Held Core Scientific CORZ 1.26 -2.56 3.88 16.2 now, 31 by year end 8497 Northern Data AG NDTAF 0.85 -7.66 33.5 Euros Data center and cloud provider n/a Marathon Digital MARA 1.10 -0.36 10.35 23 by early 2023 n/a Riot Blockchain RIOT 0.91 -0.09 7.13 12.8 by early 2023 5783 Hut8 Mining HUT 0.43 -0.42 2.49 2.54 now 6115 Iris Energy Ltd. IREN 0.37 -18.07 4.90 10 by early 2023 n/a Bitfarms BITF 0.38 0.13 1.87 2.7 now 5243 Table 2. Some top publicly traded Bitcoin mining companies, some of these companies have other business lines, most are pure plays. In general, these are new businesses with significant venture capital invested and large capital expenses devoted to ramping up hashrate with new mining rigs, so although they may have good operating margins on mining most are not profitable. Many of these are also keeping much of the Bitcoin they mine in their treasuries. Data from Yahoo Finance on 5/19/22 and company websites.
  9. 9. @OrionX_net Top Proof of Work Coins Mining Rigs Largest Pool Operators Summary Tables
  10. 10. @OrionX_net ©2022 OrionX.net ✦ These 6 coins produce around $20 billion of annual economic value (AEV) (down from $42 billion in November, 2021) ✦ Bitcoin and Ethereum are basically tied at $9 to $10 billion per year ✦ Only BTC and ETH have pools of over $200 million a year (20 such pools) Top Six Proof-of- Work Coins ✦ Coin Algorithm Block Time Block Subsidy Price $ Hash Rate Units Bitcoin (BTC) SHA256 10 min. 6.25 30,016 235 Exa Ethereum (ETH) Ethash 15 sec. 2 2054 1.09 Peta Dogecoin (Doge) Scrypt 1 min. 10,000 0.086 429 Tera Litecoin (LTC) Scrypt 2.5 min. 12.5 69.6 521 Tera Bitcoin Cash (BCH) SHA 256 10 min. 6.25 192.4 723 Peta Ethereum Classic (ETC) ETChash 14 sec. 3.2 20.6 22.68 Tera Table 3. The first and second column give the coin name and its cryptographic hash algorithm. The next two columns give the nominal block time and the block subsidy received by a miner each block. The fifth Column gives the recent price for the coin, and the last two columns provide the hash rate and the units for the hash rate. Only Bitcoin is in the Exahashes/sec range, Bitcoin Cash has only 0.3% as much hash rate. Almost all the economic value is in Bitcoin and Ethereum, they are the only ones with pools mining at over $200 million annual run rate.
  11. 11. @OrionX_net ©2022 OrionX.net ✦ These are nine of the fastest Bitcoin mining rigs on the market, from three vendors. ✦ The table shows hashrate, electricity required, and operating profit at 5 cents per kilowatt-hour ✦ Some of these rigs are announced for future availability. Top Mining Rigs ✦ Table 4. The first and second column give the manufacturer and model name for a number of the latest mining rigs. The third, fourth, and fifth columns give suggested unit pricing, the hashrate for Bitcoin’s SHA256 hashing algorithm in Terahashes/second, and the electricity draw in Watts. The operating profitability is estimated for 5 cents per kWH electricity. The operator must cover capital costs and other operating costs as well before deriving a profit. Some of these rigs will not ship until later this year.
  12. 12. @OrionX_net ©2022 OrionX.net ✦ Top 10 Bitcoin Mining Pools and Top 10 Ethereum Mining Pools ✦ We also list the host country ✦ These top 20 pools are responsible for over 90% of the value creation ✦ US now has 4, Germany, Japan, and China 1 each and the rest are global Largest Pool Operators ✦ Pool Country Bitcoin ($M) Ethereum ($M) Total $M Ethermine Global 0 2,714 2,714 F2pool Global 1,307 1,346 2,652 Poolin US 1,102 920 2,022 Foundry USA US 1,889 0 1,889 Antpool China 1,386 256 1,642 Binance US 1,140 168 1,308 Hiveon Global 0 1,018 1,018 ViaBTC Germany 997 0 997 Slushpool Global 589 0 589 Btcdotcom Global 563 0 563 2Miners Global 0 531 531 flexpool.io Global 0 514 514 Nanopool Global 0 259 259 SBI crypto Japan 247 0 247 MiningPoolHub Global 0 229 229 Luxor US 216 0 216 Top 20 9,436 7,955 17,391 All Mining 9,708 9,411 19,119 Table 5. The top 20 Bitcoin and Ethereum pools, across 16 operators. The cutoff is $200 million annual production. Collectively they produce $17.4 billion out of total of $19.1 billion for both coins.
  13. 13. @OrionX_net ©2021 OrionX.net Top pools, Bitcoin, Ethereum
  14. 14. @OrionX_net ©2022 OrionX.net Top Bitcoin Mining Pools: Share of blocks won by pool, over three months prior to and including 5/19/22. 13,155 blocks added to chain. Top 6 pools account for 80% of the blocks won and added to the blockchain.
  15. 15. @OrionX_net ©2022 OrionX.net Top Ethereum Mining Pools: Share of 575,033 blocks by pool. Data covers 3 months prior to 5/19/22 from BTC.com Top 3 pools account for 54% of won blocks
  16. 16. @OrionX_net May 2022 Stephen Perrenod OrionX.net/research Thank you!
  17. 17. @OrionX_net ©2021 OrionX.net References ✦ Overall: coinmarketcap.com, coinwarz.com, cryptoslate.com ✦ BTC: btc.com, blockchain.com ✦ ETH: btc.com, etherscan.io ✦ Others: miningpoolstats.stream ✦ Cryptocurrency topics: orionx.net/blog ✦ Top Cryptocurrency Supercomputers November 2021, https://www.slideshare.net/perrenod/top-cryptosupers-seventh-edition ✦ Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index: https://ccaf.io/cbeci/index ✦ Bitcoin Mining Council: endthefud.org, https://youtu.be/uotDxbKJmlo ✦ Mining rigs: asicminervalue.com

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