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Keys to Success for
    Innovative New Mobile Devices
    – Perspectives from immr

    September 2010

    Dr. Phil Hendrix
    Founder and Director, immr and GigaOm Pro Analyst
    www.immr.org
    1 (770) 612-1488
    phil.hendrix@immr.org



1             Permission granted to cite, copy and distribute with attribution - Dr. Phil Hendrix - immr - www.immr.org
Getting the Product Right – at the Right Time – is Challenging
                                       Failure, Losses

            Exuberant       Type 1 Error:
                            Overly Optimistic Projections
                            – Market Doesn’t Materialize


Expected/
Projected     Realistic
 Demand
                                                                                                                                        Missed
                                                                                                                                      Opportunity
              Modest
                                                                        Type 2 Error:
                                                                        Overly Pessimistic View
                                                                        – Market Takes Off

                                       Few                           Slow to                   Sales “Take Off,”
                                       Buy                           Ramp Up                    Viral Demand
                                                           Actual Demand
 2                        Permission granted to cite, copy and distribute with attribution - Dr. Phil Hendrix - immr - www.immr.org
Companies and Customers Add to the Challenges…
    For Companies            Ü Expectations often unrealistically high within client team, among executives
    Introducing New-to-
    Market Products          Ü Considerable speculation, even hype, among industry analysts and observers

                             Ü Significant investments, big bets, and reputation often at stake

                             Ü Launch and results closely watched within the company and in the press

    For Customers of         Ü For “really new” products, understanding, even classifying, difficult
    New-to-Market
    Products                 Ü Information about very new products is often fragmented and conflicting

                             Ü Understanding the features and benefits, comparing options can be onerous

                             Ü Initially, availability may be limited, requiring extra effort to purchase

                             Ü Being an “early adopter” can be risky

                             Ü Customers expect prices to drop over time Ü more costly to buy early




    “Marketing often exaggerates the likely growth for a                            "Unlocking [the potential] is proving more difficult
    technology or service - adoption typically takes longer.”                        than early entrants might have thought."
    John Carey, CITI                                                                 Joe Laszlo, Jupiter Research


                  "Predictions are hard, especially when they are about the future." Yogi Berra

3                              Permission granted to cite, copy and distribute with attribution - Dr. Phil Hendrix - immr - www.immr.org
Mobile Internet Devices – Blending, Converging, Competing
                                                Consumer
                                                Electronics
                                                                             Mp3 players


                                                                                 iPod
                                                            SIP Phones
                                                                                                PNDs
                                                                  Kindle                                                  “The iPhone does all the things
          “Predictions are hard, especially
           when they are about the future.”                                                                               a netbook lets you do.”
          Yogi Berra, n.d.                                       ebook Readers                                            Steve Jobs, 10/22/2008

                                                                                                 iTouch



                                                                                                     UMPCs
                                                    Feature Phones
                                                                                                  Tablet PCs
                                                                         Super Phones

                                                                   iPhone
                                                                                      Smartbooks
                                                                                                                Netbooks
                                              Smart Phones

                                     Cell Phones                                                                         Notebooks
          Wireless                                                                                                                                 Computing

                                              “In the future, all computers will communicate and all communication
                                              devices will compute.” Paul Otellini, Intel, 4/19/2002

Sources: Adapted from In-Stat/Texas Instruments Presentation, Mobile Internet Devices – Market Overview                                      Dr. Phil Hendrix, immr


4                                      Permission granted to cite, copy and distribute with attribution - Dr. Phil Hendrix - immr - www.immr.org
Keys to Success for Innovative New Mobile Devices
• Drive development of                                                                                                                               • Instant on
  apps optimized for device                                                                                                                          • Embedded 3G, Wi-fi
                                     Create
• App store(s) for devices                                                                                                 Enable                    • Affordable 3G
• Make social media part of        Compelling
                                                                                                                          Seamless                   • Flexible pricing
  the DNA                           New User                                                                                                           (subscription, use)
• Create compelling                                                                                                        Mobility                  • Cloud-based services
  advertising/branding
                                   Experiences
                                                                                                                                                       (cross-platform)
• Optimize for one or more                                                                                                                           • Mitigate data
  apps for which device            Create excitement for                                                   Make new products                           restrictions
  uniquely well-suited
                                   new products                                                                indispensable




                                                                              Key                                                               Hit the
                                   Grow the                                                                            Minimize               Sweet Spot
            Cultivate ,
                                   category
                                                                            Drivers                             cannnibalization               on “3P’s”
            Nurture the
            Ecosystem                                                     of Success                                                           • Price
                                                                                                                                               • Performance
                                                                                                                                               • Portability


    • Cross-platform interoperability
      (smartphone – PCs)                                                                                                                     • Precise targeting
                                                                                                                                             • Optimized for use
    • Care for security, privacy                                     Trigger a “virtuous cycle,”                                               cases
    • Bundle key services (photo                                       avoid the vicious cycle                                               • Clear differentiation,
      sharing, etc.)                                                                                                                           positioning
    • Connect to “Connected
      homes,” vehicles                                                                               ý Commodity pricing
    • Promote peripherals,                                                                           ý Feature creep
      ancillary services                                                     Avoid
                                                                                                     ý Overlapping subcategories
    • Create a retail experience                                         Product-centric             ý Confusing end-users
    • Embrace emerging platforms                                             Traps                   ý Under/over-shooting on
      (LBS; AR; etc.)                                                                                  performance
                                                                                                     ý Avoid “buyer remorse”                        Dr. Phil Hendrix, immr

5                                       Permission granted to cite, copy and distribute with attribution - Dr. Phil Hendrix - immr - www.immr.org
immr Research on New Mobile Devices

    Here are links to forthcoming and recent immr research on Mobile Devices:

    v   If we build it, will they come? Consumer Demand and Preferences for Tablets
        in the iPad Era, to be presented at the iPad and Tablet Conference, Oct. 6, 2010,
        San Francisco. http://www.ipadandtablets.com/index.php (for more information,
        contact Dr. Phil Hendrix at immr)

        This presentation summarizes the results of market research examining consumers’ preferences and propensities
        to buy tablets. Using Choice Modeling, we examine a wide range of Tablet features and configurations, showing (i)
        which features are “must haves,”(ii) appeal and demand for various configurations, (iii) price elasticity and other
        important insights. We also discuss the implications for OEMs hoping to capitalize on this phenomenon and
        emulate the iPad’s success.




    v   The M in MIDs Stands for Mobile, immr Thought Leader Survey on Mobile
        Internet Devices, 2008 (study co-sponsored by GigaOm, GSMA and InMobile).
        Download at http://www.immr.org/1/immr_mids_summary.pdf

    v   Consumers’ Perspectives on Mobile Internet Devices, excerpts from Qualitative
        Research. View excerpts at http://www.immr.org/1/MIDs/MIDs.htm

6                               Permission granted to cite, copy and distribute with attribution - Dr. Phil Hendrix - immr - www.immr.org
About immr
Sweet Spot      New-to-Market (NTM)             Œ     We help companies understand and capitalize on the crucial, vexing question –
                Products, Services and                “how can we identify, anticipate, and predict what customers will value and buy?”
                Business Models                       even when they have yet to experience it.

Focus           ICT (Information,               •     We work primarily with companies leveraging new technologies and business
                Communications, and                   models and can (usually) translate products described in arcane, technical terms
                Technology); Healthcare               and jargon into realistic concepts.
                and Insurance

Markets         Consumer and B2B                Ž     We conduct research in consumer as well as B2B markets.

Experience      Our Clients                     •     We work with both market leaders and emerging companies, typically on an on-
                                                      going basis. This allows us to understand their business and contribute more fully.
                Issues We Address               •     While our focus is on innovation and marketing, we often address closely related
                                                      issues (e.g., segmentation, positioning/branding, customer retention, etc.)
                Project Scope                   ‘     Our projects vary in scope from small, exploratory research to large, multiple-phase
                                                      projects that combine qualitative, quantitative, and market trials.

Methodologies Qualitative                       ’     Although qualitative research is by nature subjective, clients find our approach,
                                                      style, and results highly effective. While we do traditional focus grous (typcially
                                                      mini-groups), in most of our projects we conduct highly revealing, in-depth,
                                                      individual (IDI) interviews.
                Quantitative                    “     We employ a combination of rigorous quantitative research tools developed for and
                                                      uniquely well-suited to new-to-market and new-to-customer products, services, and
                                                      business models
Delivery        Collaborative,                  ”     We work closely with clients to (i) leverage their capabilities, (ii) adapt as new
                client-focused                        learning, issues, and imperatives emerge; and (iii) help them succeed.

Value-add       Perspectives, Insights,         •     As researchers with a “consultant’s perspective,” we believe that understanding and
                and Recommendations                   anticipating prospective buyers’ behavior are key to successful innovation. In
                                                      addition to the research findings, we add significant value by contributing insights,
                                                      ideas, and recommendations and facilitating dialogue with client teams.


7                              Permission granted to cite, copy and distribute with attribution - Dr. Phil Hendrix - immr - www.immr.org
We Help Clients Verify and Capitalize on Market Opportunities

                                                                   Uncover
                                                                  Customer
                                                                   Needs,
                                                                 Competitive
                                                                Vulnerabilities
                                                   What market opportunities exist?




       Verify Market
                          What                                     Data                                          Which              Size Market
                          adjustments                                                                            market             Opportunity,
       Assumptions,
         Validate
                          are needed                             Insights                                  opportunities             Prioritize
                          to achieve                                                                         should we
        Execution,
                          success?                              Experience                                     pursue?
                                                                                                                                       Target
          ROMI†                                                                                                                     Segment(s)


                                                               What is the winning
                                                           product/marketing strategy?

                                                                    Determine
                                                                      Optimal
                                                                     Features,
                                                                      Pricing,
†Return-on-Marketing Investment
                                                                    Positioning


8                                 Permission granted to cite, copy and distribute with attribution - Dr. Phil Hendrix - immr - www.immr.org
Dr. Phil Hendrix – Bio
                            Dr. Phil Hendrix is the founder and director of immr, a research and consulting firm focused on “very
                            new” product and market opportunities, and an analyst with GigaOm Pro. He specializes in helping
                            organizations identify, verify, and capitalize on opportunities for products that are new-to-customers
                            and very often new-to-market. Dr. Hendrix has developed perspectives and research-based tools to
                            uncover customers’ unmet needs, reveal hurdles slowing adoption, trigger interest and accelerate
                            purchase, and determine features and pricing to maximize market penetration. He has extensive
                            experience adapting and applying research approaches, both qualitative and quantitative, to amplify
    Dr. Phil Hendrix        weak market signals and help clients innovate successfully.
    Director, immr          Phil has led significant engagements with numerous startups (such as Company.com) and multiple
    www.immr.org            business units of Fortune 100 clients in telecommunications (AT&T, Verizon, Sprint, Sony Ericsson,
    +1 (770) 612-1488       and others), financial services (American Express), transportation (UPS), insurance (Allstate, United
    phil.hendrix@immr.org   Healthcare), healthcare (Meridian Health, US Oncology), and others. He has worked closely with
                            senior management and client project teams on issues ranging from “traditional marketing”
                            (segmentation, positioning, branding) to innovation, user experience, and customer retention. Over the
                            course of his career, Phil has helped clients conceive and successfully launch dozens of new
                            products, businesses, and brands. He has extensive experience in B2C and B2B (SMB) markets. He
                            is also a frequent speaker at industry and academic conferences.

                            Phil brings a unique combination of academic rigor, strategic perspective, and hands-on experience to
                            his work. Before founding immr, Phil was a partner with DiamondCluster (strategy and technology
                            consultancy), founder and head of IMS (Integrated Measurement Systems), and a principal with
                            Mercer Management Consulting. He has held faculty and research positions at Emory University and
                            the University of Michigan, where he taught courses in research design and analysis, buyer behavior,
                            and marketing strategy, and the Survey Research Center at U. of Michigan. After receiving his PhD
                            in marketing from the University of Michigan, Dr. Hendrix completed post-doctoral studies in applied
                            statistics and mathematical psychology.

                            Overview and excerpts from Phil’s recent publications are available at Slideshare
                            (www.slideshare/pehendrix), with additional information available at www.immr.org and GigaOm Pro.


9                               Permission granted to cite, copy and distribute with attribution - Dr. Phil Hendrix - immr - www.immr.org
Experience
                                      Selected Clients with Whom We’ve Worked




                                             Products, Services and Issues Examined

               General                      Network/Operators                             Devices/OEMs                               Services/Apps
     §   Market Segmentation            § Bundling                                § Smart phones                             § Innovation and new
     §   Market sizing                  § Plans and pricing                       § MIDs (Mobile Internet                      product development
     §   Competitive Positioning        § Wi-fi/Hot spots                           Devices)                                 § Mobile Apps (wide range)
     §   Branding                       § Customer Service/                       § Channel strategy                         § MVoIP (Mobile VoIP)
     §   Product configuration            Self-Service                            § Promotional strategy                     § Location-based Services
                                        § Customer Retention                                                                 § Unified Messaging
                                        § Web Interface                                                                      § Speech Recognition
                                          (functionality/usability)


10                                 Permission granted to cite, copy and distribute with attribution - Dr. Phil Hendrix - immr - www.immr.org
Recent Publications
       Excerpts available at www.slideshare.net/pehendrix                                      Copies available at http://pro.gigaom.com/




11                             Permission granted to cite, copy and distribute with attribution - Dr. Phil Hendrix - immr - www.immr.org

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Keys To Success For New Mobile Devices, Dr. Phil Hendrix, immr, Sept. 2010

  • 1. Keys to Success for Innovative New Mobile Devices – Perspectives from immr September 2010 Dr. Phil Hendrix Founder and Director, immr and GigaOm Pro Analyst www.immr.org 1 (770) 612-1488 phil.hendrix@immr.org 1 Permission granted to cite, copy and distribute with attribution - Dr. Phil Hendrix - immr - www.immr.org
  • 2. Getting the Product Right – at the Right Time – is Challenging Failure, Losses Exuberant Type 1 Error: Overly Optimistic Projections – Market Doesn’t Materialize Expected/ Projected Realistic Demand Missed Opportunity Modest Type 2 Error: Overly Pessimistic View – Market Takes Off Few Slow to Sales “Take Off,” Buy Ramp Up Viral Demand Actual Demand 2 Permission granted to cite, copy and distribute with attribution - Dr. Phil Hendrix - immr - www.immr.org
  • 3. Companies and Customers Add to the Challenges… For Companies Ü Expectations often unrealistically high within client team, among executives Introducing New-to- Market Products Ü Considerable speculation, even hype, among industry analysts and observers Ü Significant investments, big bets, and reputation often at stake Ü Launch and results closely watched within the company and in the press For Customers of Ü For “really new” products, understanding, even classifying, difficult New-to-Market Products Ü Information about very new products is often fragmented and conflicting Ü Understanding the features and benefits, comparing options can be onerous Ü Initially, availability may be limited, requiring extra effort to purchase Ü Being an “early adopter” can be risky Ü Customers expect prices to drop over time Ü more costly to buy early “Marketing often exaggerates the likely growth for a "Unlocking [the potential] is proving more difficult technology or service - adoption typically takes longer.” than early entrants might have thought." John Carey, CITI Joe Laszlo, Jupiter Research "Predictions are hard, especially when they are about the future." Yogi Berra 3 Permission granted to cite, copy and distribute with attribution - Dr. Phil Hendrix - immr - www.immr.org
  • 4. Mobile Internet Devices – Blending, Converging, Competing Consumer Electronics Mp3 players iPod SIP Phones PNDs Kindle “The iPhone does all the things “Predictions are hard, especially when they are about the future.” a netbook lets you do.” Yogi Berra, n.d. ebook Readers Steve Jobs, 10/22/2008 iTouch UMPCs Feature Phones Tablet PCs Super Phones iPhone Smartbooks Netbooks Smart Phones Cell Phones Notebooks Wireless Computing “In the future, all computers will communicate and all communication devices will compute.” Paul Otellini, Intel, 4/19/2002 Sources: Adapted from In-Stat/Texas Instruments Presentation, Mobile Internet Devices – Market Overview Dr. Phil Hendrix, immr 4 Permission granted to cite, copy and distribute with attribution - Dr. Phil Hendrix - immr - www.immr.org
  • 5. Keys to Success for Innovative New Mobile Devices • Drive development of • Instant on apps optimized for device • Embedded 3G, Wi-fi Create • App store(s) for devices Enable • Affordable 3G • Make social media part of Compelling Seamless • Flexible pricing the DNA New User (subscription, use) • Create compelling Mobility • Cloud-based services advertising/branding Experiences (cross-platform) • Optimize for one or more • Mitigate data apps for which device Create excitement for Make new products restrictions uniquely well-suited new products indispensable Key Hit the Grow the Minimize Sweet Spot Cultivate , category Drivers cannnibalization on “3P’s” Nurture the Ecosystem of Success • Price • Performance • Portability • Cross-platform interoperability (smartphone – PCs) • Precise targeting • Optimized for use • Care for security, privacy Trigger a “virtuous cycle,” cases • Bundle key services (photo avoid the vicious cycle • Clear differentiation, sharing, etc.) positioning • Connect to “Connected homes,” vehicles ý Commodity pricing • Promote peripherals, ý Feature creep ancillary services Avoid ý Overlapping subcategories • Create a retail experience Product-centric ý Confusing end-users • Embrace emerging platforms Traps ý Under/over-shooting on (LBS; AR; etc.) performance ý Avoid “buyer remorse” Dr. Phil Hendrix, immr 5 Permission granted to cite, copy and distribute with attribution - Dr. Phil Hendrix - immr - www.immr.org
  • 6. immr Research on New Mobile Devices Here are links to forthcoming and recent immr research on Mobile Devices: v If we build it, will they come? Consumer Demand and Preferences for Tablets in the iPad Era, to be presented at the iPad and Tablet Conference, Oct. 6, 2010, San Francisco. http://www.ipadandtablets.com/index.php (for more information, contact Dr. Phil Hendrix at immr) This presentation summarizes the results of market research examining consumers’ preferences and propensities to buy tablets. Using Choice Modeling, we examine a wide range of Tablet features and configurations, showing (i) which features are “must haves,”(ii) appeal and demand for various configurations, (iii) price elasticity and other important insights. We also discuss the implications for OEMs hoping to capitalize on this phenomenon and emulate the iPad’s success. v The M in MIDs Stands for Mobile, immr Thought Leader Survey on Mobile Internet Devices, 2008 (study co-sponsored by GigaOm, GSMA and InMobile). Download at http://www.immr.org/1/immr_mids_summary.pdf v Consumers’ Perspectives on Mobile Internet Devices, excerpts from Qualitative Research. View excerpts at http://www.immr.org/1/MIDs/MIDs.htm 6 Permission granted to cite, copy and distribute with attribution - Dr. Phil Hendrix - immr - www.immr.org
  • 7. About immr Sweet Spot New-to-Market (NTM) Œ We help companies understand and capitalize on the crucial, vexing question – Products, Services and “how can we identify, anticipate, and predict what customers will value and buy?” Business Models even when they have yet to experience it. Focus ICT (Information, • We work primarily with companies leveraging new technologies and business Communications, and models and can (usually) translate products described in arcane, technical terms Technology); Healthcare and jargon into realistic concepts. and Insurance Markets Consumer and B2B Ž We conduct research in consumer as well as B2B markets. Experience Our Clients • We work with both market leaders and emerging companies, typically on an on- going basis. This allows us to understand their business and contribute more fully. Issues We Address • While our focus is on innovation and marketing, we often address closely related issues (e.g., segmentation, positioning/branding, customer retention, etc.) Project Scope ‘ Our projects vary in scope from small, exploratory research to large, multiple-phase projects that combine qualitative, quantitative, and market trials. Methodologies Qualitative ’ Although qualitative research is by nature subjective, clients find our approach, style, and results highly effective. While we do traditional focus grous (typcially mini-groups), in most of our projects we conduct highly revealing, in-depth, individual (IDI) interviews. Quantitative “ We employ a combination of rigorous quantitative research tools developed for and uniquely well-suited to new-to-market and new-to-customer products, services, and business models Delivery Collaborative, ” We work closely with clients to (i) leverage their capabilities, (ii) adapt as new client-focused learning, issues, and imperatives emerge; and (iii) help them succeed. Value-add Perspectives, Insights, • As researchers with a “consultant’s perspective,” we believe that understanding and and Recommendations anticipating prospective buyers’ behavior are key to successful innovation. In addition to the research findings, we add significant value by contributing insights, ideas, and recommendations and facilitating dialogue with client teams. 7 Permission granted to cite, copy and distribute with attribution - Dr. Phil Hendrix - immr - www.immr.org
  • 8. We Help Clients Verify and Capitalize on Market Opportunities Uncover Customer Needs, Competitive Vulnerabilities What market opportunities exist? Verify Market What Data Which Size Market adjustments market Opportunity, Assumptions, Validate are needed Insights opportunities Prioritize to achieve should we Execution, success? Experience pursue? Target ROMI† Segment(s) What is the winning product/marketing strategy? Determine Optimal Features, Pricing, †Return-on-Marketing Investment Positioning 8 Permission granted to cite, copy and distribute with attribution - Dr. Phil Hendrix - immr - www.immr.org
  • 9. Dr. Phil Hendrix – Bio Dr. Phil Hendrix is the founder and director of immr, a research and consulting firm focused on “very new” product and market opportunities, and an analyst with GigaOm Pro. He specializes in helping organizations identify, verify, and capitalize on opportunities for products that are new-to-customers and very often new-to-market. Dr. Hendrix has developed perspectives and research-based tools to uncover customers’ unmet needs, reveal hurdles slowing adoption, trigger interest and accelerate purchase, and determine features and pricing to maximize market penetration. He has extensive experience adapting and applying research approaches, both qualitative and quantitative, to amplify Dr. Phil Hendrix weak market signals and help clients innovate successfully. Director, immr Phil has led significant engagements with numerous startups (such as Company.com) and multiple www.immr.org business units of Fortune 100 clients in telecommunications (AT&T, Verizon, Sprint, Sony Ericsson, +1 (770) 612-1488 and others), financial services (American Express), transportation (UPS), insurance (Allstate, United phil.hendrix@immr.org Healthcare), healthcare (Meridian Health, US Oncology), and others. He has worked closely with senior management and client project teams on issues ranging from “traditional marketing” (segmentation, positioning, branding) to innovation, user experience, and customer retention. Over the course of his career, Phil has helped clients conceive and successfully launch dozens of new products, businesses, and brands. He has extensive experience in B2C and B2B (SMB) markets. He is also a frequent speaker at industry and academic conferences. Phil brings a unique combination of academic rigor, strategic perspective, and hands-on experience to his work. Before founding immr, Phil was a partner with DiamondCluster (strategy and technology consultancy), founder and head of IMS (Integrated Measurement Systems), and a principal with Mercer Management Consulting. He has held faculty and research positions at Emory University and the University of Michigan, where he taught courses in research design and analysis, buyer behavior, and marketing strategy, and the Survey Research Center at U. of Michigan. After receiving his PhD in marketing from the University of Michigan, Dr. Hendrix completed post-doctoral studies in applied statistics and mathematical psychology. Overview and excerpts from Phil’s recent publications are available at Slideshare (www.slideshare/pehendrix), with additional information available at www.immr.org and GigaOm Pro. 9 Permission granted to cite, copy and distribute with attribution - Dr. Phil Hendrix - immr - www.immr.org
  • 10. Experience Selected Clients with Whom We’ve Worked Products, Services and Issues Examined General Network/Operators Devices/OEMs Services/Apps § Market Segmentation § Bundling § Smart phones § Innovation and new § Market sizing § Plans and pricing § MIDs (Mobile Internet product development § Competitive Positioning § Wi-fi/Hot spots Devices) § Mobile Apps (wide range) § Branding § Customer Service/ § Channel strategy § MVoIP (Mobile VoIP) § Product configuration Self-Service § Promotional strategy § Location-based Services § Customer Retention § Unified Messaging § Web Interface § Speech Recognition (functionality/usability) 10 Permission granted to cite, copy and distribute with attribution - Dr. Phil Hendrix - immr - www.immr.org
  • 11. Recent Publications Excerpts available at www.slideshare.net/pehendrix Copies available at http://pro.gigaom.com/ 11 Permission granted to cite, copy and distribute with attribution - Dr. Phil Hendrix - immr - www.immr.org