Outline of the Aflacontrol Project: Exploring the Scope of Cost Effective Aflatoxin Risk Reduction Strategies in in Maize and Groundnut Value chains to improve market access and health of the poor in Africa

1. Exploring the Scope of Cost-Effective Aflatoxin Risk Reduction Strategies in Maize and Groundnut Value Chains to Improve Market Access and Health of the Poor in Africa Pippa Chenevix Trench, Project manager, IFPRI Clare Narrod, Project lead researcher, IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute International Center for the Improvement of Maize and Wheat International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics University of Pittsburgh Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences ACDI/VOCA/Kenya Maize Development Program Kenya Agricultural Research Institute Institutd’EconomieRurale The Eastern Africa Grain Council

2. Facilitated by IFPRI With funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

3. Motivation for project Economic losses estimated to be large -dearth of systematic studies that empirically estimate economic losses (health, income) for all stakeholders along the value chain economic impact of interventions socio-economic factors affecting adoption Number of biological studies on control options; hasn’t been large scale adoption.

4. Markets/Trade and Aflatoxin Center for Disease Control has estimated that more than 4.5 billion people in developing countries are chronically exposed to aflatoxins in their diets. Market loss occurs when: Food IS monitored for aflatoxin: Buyers pay lower prices for or reject contaminated food (developed nations, local or international trade) Animals become sick from aflatoxin consumption Health loss occurs when: Food IS NOT monitored for aflatoxin: Dangerous levels enter food supply (developing nations) 4

5. Project goal To identify pro-poor cost-effective aflatoxin risk-reduction strategies in order to assess the uptake of these strategies and to suggest interventions that ensure high rates of adoptability along value chains.

6. Study areas Kenya: Nyanza province (west) – transect from Kisii to Homa Bay (high - low elevations) Upper East – transect from Embu to Mbeere (high - low lands) Lower East transect that includes Machakos and Makueni districts.

8. Household level analysis (Income, Gender)

11. Risk assessment

12. Cost benefit/and Cost effectiveness analysisEndpoints of interest: exposure Market access/ income/ poverty reduction 2) Health Disease Prevelance -Obj 2 -Collection of prevelance data along value chains (with and without control measures) in different ecological zones Communication and Advocacy – Obj 5

14. Household level analysis (Income, Gender)

16. Regulations and trade flows Mycotoxins regulations impose costs on the producers that could take the form of both variable and fixed costs. Three types of effects: Volume of trade effect – Already trading could trade less, Missing trade or lost trade effect–Producers/countries could be screened off the export market. The ones to be screened off the export markets would be the ones comparatively less productive Market reallocation effect – Exporters could reallocate their supplies across markets including towards domestic markets.

17. How to estimate health losses: Aflatoxin risk assessment Dose-response / health effects Dose-response effects well characterized for HCC Global burden of aflatoxin-induced HCC already estimated (Liu & Wu 2010) Increasing characterization for stunting (Gong et al. 2002, 2003, 2004; Okoth & Ohimbo 2006) Exposure assessment Secondary data Primary data gathered from this study will be used to assess aflatoxin exposure in Kenya & Mali Aflatoxin levels in food Possible biomarker-related work Best of all: possibly correlating foodborneaflatoxin with HUMAN aflatoxin biomarkers!

19. Household level analysis (Income, Gender)

20. TradeDisease Prevalence -Prevelance of Aflatoxin contamination along value chains in different ecological zones

22. Household level analysis (Income, Gender)

24. Risk assessment

25. Cost benefit/and Cost effectiveness analysisDisease Prevalence -Collection of prevelance data along value chains (with and without control measures) in different ecological zones

26. PERFORM RISK ANALYSIS TO IDENTIFY COST-EFFECTIVE CONTROL STRATEGIES FOR REDUCING AFLATOXIN RISK. How does risk of Aflatoxin contamination relate to environmental or climatic factors, and how does it vary over time and across geographical areas? (Develop predictive risk maps ) Howdoes the prevalence alter as the product moves along the value chain (risk assessment) What are the cost and benefits of different technologies to reduce aflatoxin risk? (cost-benefit analysis) Which Aflatoxin mitigation strategies provide the best value for money, and are most likely to be accepted by farmers, consumers and other actors in terms of costs and effectiveness? (cost-effectiveness analysis)

29. Household level analysis (Income, Gender)

31. Risk assessment

32. Cost benefit/and Cost effectiveness analysisDisease Prevalence -Collection of prevelance data along value chains (with and without control measures) in different ecological zones

33. Map the maize and groundnut value chain and investigate the knowledge, awareness, and perceptions of aflatoxins by the actors within those value chains as well as their willingness to adopt and pay for aflatoxin testing and control strategies Who are the different value chain actors, and what are their roles and the relationships between them? What knowledge, attitudes and perceptions exist among producers, consumers and other along the value chain about Aflatoxins? What are farmers willing to pay for technologies to reduce aflatoxin risk? And are consumers willing to pay extra for maize that is certified Aflatoxin free?

34. Knowledge, Attitude, Practices & Perceptions (KAPP) studies Questions related to farmers’ and other value chain actors’ : Knowledge and awareness of aflatoxin (e.g., do they know what aflatoxin is, what causes it, how can it be identified) Aflatoxin risk perceptions (e.g., aflatoxin’s impact on human and livestock health; impact of soil, rain, storage on aflatoxin risk) Maize production/processing/consumption practices related to aflatoxin (e.g., what do they do with moldy maize, who consumes it, how can mold be minimized)

35. Willingness to pay (WTP) studies The contingent valuation method will be used to capture farmers’ and other value chain actors’ WTP for aflatoxin control technologies (M. Tiongco, IFPRI) metal silos seed less susceptible to aflatoxin biocontrols drying maize off the ground (tarpaulin) BDM Auctions among farmers will be used to assess the willingness of farmers as consumers to pay a premium for maize that has been certified as Aflatoxin-free (H. De Groote, CIMMYT)

36. 2009 Inception and stakeholder workshop Net-mapping exercise importance of various actors, opportunities for aflatoxin control, etc. Identified study areas Methodological briefs

37. Ongoing work- Economic impacts, KAPP, and WTP Finish risk assessment on health outcomes Surveys almost complete among 2000 households/traders in Kenya Analysis of economic impacts in terms of health consequences, income effects, KAPP, and WTP based on survey data

40. Household level analysis (Income, Gender)

42. Risk assessment

44. Improved regulatory framework

45. Improved Public health awareness and reduced exposure to AflatoxinDisease Prevalence -Collection of prevelance data along value chains (with and without control measures) in different ecological zones

48. Household level analysis (Income, Gender)

50. Risk assessment

52. Improved regulatory framework

53. Improved Public health awareness and reduced exposure to AflatoxinDisease Prevalence -Collection of prevelance data along value chains (with and without control measures) in different ecological zones Communication and Advocacy

55. Ongoing work-Prevalence data collection and risk mapping 2nd year of data on Aflatoxin prevalence Data collection on effectiveness of control measures Mapping prevalence data against environmental and climatic factors

56. Maize event tree

57. Next steps – Risk analysis work Predictive risk maps using 2 years prevalance data Risk assessment using 2 years prevalence data Complete 2000 household and trader surveys Cost-benefit analysis of control options Cost-effectiveness analysis

58. Current Team: IFPRI: Clare Narrod, Devesh Roy, Marites Tiongco, Pippa Chenevix Trench, Rosie Scott, Will Collier, Maribel Elias CIMMYT: Jonathan Hellin, Hugo DeGroote, George Mahuku, Simon Kimenju ICRISAT: Farid Waliyar, Jupiter Ndjeunga (Mali) University of Pittsburgh: Felicia Wu, Yan Liu, PornsriKhlangwiset Uniformed Health Services: Judith Chamberlin, Penny Masuoka ACDI/VOCA: Steve Collins, Stanley Guantai, Sophie Walker KARI: Sila Nzioki, Charles Bett IER: Bamory Diarra, O. Kodio, A Traore (Mali