Retail Sales| United States| October 2020

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paul young cpa, cga

Here is a look at October 2020 retail sales for the United States

Economy & Finance

USA RETAIL SECTOR
Paul Young CPA CGA
November 16, 2020

PAUL YOUNG - BIO
• CPA, CGA
• Academia (PF1, FA4 and MS2)
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Supply Chain Management
Contact information:
Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com

AGENDA
• Retail Sector / July 2020 – United States
• Restructuring of Retail
• Commercial Property / Amazon
• Consumer Spending / USA
• Analytics / Retail
• Supply Chain / Analytics
• RPA / Retail

USA RETAIL
SALES /
OCTOBER 2020
Source -
https://economics.bmo.com/en
/publications/detail/9cdd276c-
ff0a-4a33-9dbf-7c7a2ef14e39/

USA RETAIL SALES – OCTOBER 2020
Source - https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html

RETAIL SECTOR / RESTRUCTURING
• The retail sector will be forced into restructuring due to following
• High debt levels – Leasing and other obligations
• Restructuring of debt
• Expansion of eCommerce
• Restructuring of their business model
The running list of 2020 retail bankruptcies
The pandemic has ushered in a wave of bankruptcies as retailers struggle to pay rent, vendors and other
expenses. - https://www.retaildive.com/news/the-running-list-of-2020-retail-bankruptcies/571159/
More that 3,600 companies have filed for bankruptcy protection in the USA -
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/08/major-companies-filing-for-bankruptcy-due-to-coronavirus.html
USA Retail - https://www.buxtonco.com/blog/the-top-15-u.s.-retail-markets and COVID19 -
https://www.icsc.com/coronavirus/resources-for-the-retail-and-real-estate-industry-on-covid-19

COMMERCIAL
PROPERTIES /
AMAZON
Source -
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/n
ews/amazon-taking-over-
empty-jc-penney-stores-
means-the-end-of-the-mall-
former-retail-ceo-
155616339.html

CONSUMER SPENDING/USA
Source - https://www.conference-board.org/research/us-forecast

TECHNOLOGY
• Augment Reality - https://techiesindiainc.com/role-of-augmented-reality-in-retail-2020/
• Risk / Audit Analytics - https://www.ey.com/en_fi/consulting/how-to-use-real-time-data-to-mine-better-
insights
• Group consolidated F/S - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G9Fi04K9oe0
• Dashboards vs Reports - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gHBsVDmAdOY

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Blog – Retail Sales – United States – April 2021 1. Retail sales falls short - https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-today-news-51620986619?tesla=y 2. High inflation - https://think.ing.com/articles/us-inflation-to-the-moon 3. Pricing of Carbon - https://voxeu.org/article/pricing-carbon-within-and-border-europe 4. eCommerce continues to rise - https://unctad.org/news/global-e-commerce-jumps-267-trillion-covid-19-boosts-online-sales 5. Supply chain - https://www.ey.com/en_ch/supply-chain/how-can-todays-supply-chain-disruption-cut-costs-and-improve-control 6. Reshoring of consumer goods - https://manufacturingglobal.com/lean-manufacturing/reshoring-initiative-and-walmart-launch-effort-help-suppliers-reshore 7. Online/Grocery - https://www.grocerydive.com/news/supermarkets-are-in-for-the-fight-of-their-lives/599435/ 8. Delivery - https://www.wapt.com/article/rossen-reports-food-delivery-robots-in-action/36356003 9. Kroger / Drones - https://www.retailwire.com/discussion/kroger-takes-flight-with-drone-delivery-test/ 10. Trends - https://insideretail.com.au/sponsored-content/the-new-trend-in-retail-is-hyper-efficiency-202105

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1. USA retail sales decline in May 2021 - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-15/u-s-retail-sales-decline-after-two-solid-months-of-gains 2. Producer Price Index - https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/15/retail-sales-producer-price-index-may-2021.html 3. Retail stores - https://www.cbinsights.com/research/retail-apocalypse-timeline-infographic/ 4. Reshoring - https://ca.news.yahoo.com/report-reshoring-could-drive-443-132700577.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAFu0vqTC2y1TQZSq1Zlt7veH97-S66ePRcL68kCt9r-V_PGNsK7VT7H4tDaUmiMNF4eBMsaVGSc-ATHQYdnEiYYs39D_rXWf3x44Fd4_LUeOB5Mtt2qBLXYGIxskIR3XTRRCv-_P0osj2A2EcLiO6rOp9lXXhCzQY05XgAG1jtPw 5. Freight Bottlenecks - http://www.scdigest.com/ontarget/21-06-02_top_us_freight_bottlenecks.php?cid=18741 6. Cybercrime - https://www.fleetowner.com/technology 7. Supply chain - https://www.pwc.com/us/en/library/covid-19/supply-chain.html 8. Climate change - https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/06/14/sec-requests-disclosure-on-climate-change-risk-weighs-new-requirements.html 9. eCommerce - https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/shopify-and-google-take-on-amazon-in-retail-battle-2021-06-13 10. Threats - https://www.fortinet.com/solutions/industries/retail/major-threats-to-the-retail-industry

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Bottom Line: Though losing momentum amid fading support from tax cuts, consumer fundamentals remain supportive, suggesting households will pick up the pace in coming months and drive the expansion forward. After storming back in March, U.S. retail sales disappointed in April, falling 0.2% after a slight upward revision to the prior jump (now 1.7%). Autos reversed sharply, though gas-station receipts surged on higher fuel costs. Sales of electronic products and clothing fell, though mostly due to lower prices. One bright spot: restaurant outings continued to trend higher, a reflection of elevated confidence. The control measure that feeds into PCE (and GDP) was flat after a slight upward revision the prior month (now 1.1%). The report is disappointing but far from a disaster. Real PCE was likely flat in April after leaping 0.7% in March. This implies a modest downside risk to our call for a decent rebound in consumer spending growth to 2.6% in Q2 from 1.2% in Q1. However, a pullback in outsized gains in inventories and net exports will likely slow GDP growth to 1.5% from 3.2%. Source – BMO Economics

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Summary: Homebuilders are walking a fine line when it comes to new projects as high mortgage rates curb demand. New residential construction, including single-family homes and multifamily, dropped 11.3% month over month in August to 1.283 million units on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to Census Bureau data released Tuesday. That's down 14.8% compared with a year ago and well below the 1.44 million units economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected. But authorized residential permits — an indicator of potential future activity — rose 6.9% to 1.543 million permits in August from July. That was still down 2.7% from last August. Single-family permits, though, were up 2% from July to 949,000. Multifamily permits came in at 535,000. The data reflects two opposing forces builders are trying to balance: the ongoing need for new construction to fill in limited inventory and elevated mortgage rates that are hurting their biggest customer right now, the first-time homebuyer. "High mortgage rates are clearly taking a toll on builder confidence and consumer demand, as a growing number of buyers are electing to defer a home purchase until long-term rates move lower," Robert Dietz, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders, said Monday in a press release after builder confidence dropped for the second straight month. Source: https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/homebuilders-face-a-tough-balancing-act-on-new-construction-amid-high-mortgage-rates-130744368.html

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