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Risk management-insurance-and-the-climate-crisis

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Paul Mahony
Paul Mahony

I have an interest in the world of insurance, which is a far more comprehensive and intricate industry than suggested by domestic insurers’ multi-policy discounts and the like. In fact, commerce and industry in general would not operate without the insurance mechanism to support it. Risk management is a related discipline, consisting of insurance (within its "risk transfer" component) and many other elements. I also have a keen interest in climate change, and have felt for some time that its near-term and longer-term impacts are not fully appreciated by various major participants in the insurance industry. For that reason, I have developed this presentation, which I will soon expand into a more comprehensive discussion paper:

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Risk Management, Insurance and the Climate Crisis Paul Mahony, 1 December 2013 Images: M. Todesco, Cryospheric Processes Laboratory, City College New York City, http://cryocity.org/ and Image: Jhanz (Dreamstime.com
Introduction This is an extended version of a presentation I gave as guest speaker to a group of Monash University students in the subject “Principles of Risk Transfer BFF5031” (Dept of Banking and Finance) on 31st August 2013. I have previously commented on likelihood and consequences in relation to climate change in various articles and presentations. I have used many of the slides in this presentation elsewhere, and have included them again for completeness. The material will soon be used for a more extensive discussion paper. An edited version is used for presentations due to time constraints. Paul Mahony 2013 For more information, please see terrastendo.net. Version 2, 3rd December, 2013: Inclusion of banner on Greenland moulin slide (# 54) Version 3, 5th December, 2013: Inclusion of slide on valuing our natural capital (# 192) Version 4, 11th February, 2013: Additional slide on hail (#129)
Paul Mahony 2013 Some thoughts on climate-related risk management
Some thoughts on climate-related risk management Paul Mahony 2013 “Perhaps the greatest flaw in the climate debate has been our inability, or refusal, to address risk and uncertainty realistically.”
Some thoughts on climate-related risk management “Perhaps the greatest flaw in the climate debate has been our inability, or refusal, to address risk and uncertainty realistically.” Paul Mahony 2013 “Scientists are giving increasingly urgent warnings on the mounting evidence of human-induced warming and the need for rapid carbon emission reductions.”
Some thoughts on climate-related risk management “Perhaps the greatest flaw in the climate debate has been our inability, or refusal, to address risk and uncertainty realistically.” “Scientists are giving increasingly urgent warnings on the mounting evidence of human-induced warming and the need for rapid carbon emission reductions.” Paul Mahony 2013 “Officialdom chooses to ignore these warnings, preferring policy based on ‘political realism’, shorthand for hoping the problem will go away.”
Some thoughts on climate-related risk management “Perhaps the greatest flaw in the climate debate has been our inability, or refusal, to address risk and uncertainty realistically.” “Scientists are giving increasingly urgent warnings on the mounting evidence of human-induced warming and the need for rapid carbon emission reductions.” “Officialdom chooses to ignore these warnings, preferring policy based on ‘political realism’, shorthand for hoping the problem will go away.” Paul Mahony 2013 “Business, supposedly the experts on risk management, should take leadership, but have abrogated any responsibility, given that realistic action will require a fundamental redesign of the economic system, undermining established vested interests.”
Some thoughts on climate-related risk management “Perhaps the greatest flaw in the climate debate has been our inability, or refusal, to address risk and uncertainty realistically.” “Scientists are giving increasingly urgent warnings on the mounting evidence of human-induced warming and the need for rapid carbon emission reductions.” “Officialdom chooses to ignore these warnings, preferring policy based on ‘political realism’, shorthand for hoping the problem will go away.” Paul Mahony 2013 “Business, supposedly the experts on risk management, should take leadership, but have abrogated any responsibility, given that realistic action will require a fundamental redesign of the economic system, undermining established vested interests.” “The result is that nobody is seriously addressing the strategic risks to which we are exposed.”
Some thoughts on climate-related risk management “Perhaps the greatest flaw in the climate debate has been our inability, or refusal, to address risk and uncertainty realistically.” try “Scientists are giving increasingly urgent warnings onal indus the mounting 012warming andas and co rapid carbon emission evidencen Dunlop, 2 a of human-inducedional oil, g the need for I at reductions.” r intern Forme e. xecutiv to ignore these warnings, preferring policy based on e “Officialdom chooses ‘political realism’, shorthand for hoping the problem will go away.” Paul Mahony 2013 “Business, supposedly the experts on risk management, should take leadership, but have abrogated any responsibility, given that realistic action will require a fundamental redesign of the economic system, undermining established vested interests.” “The result is that nobody is seriously addressing the strategic risks to which we are exposed.”
Some thoughts on climate-related risk management “Perhaps the greatest flaw in the climate debate has been our inability, or refusal, to address risk and uncertainty realistically.” try “Scientists are giving increasingly urgent warnings onal indus the mounting 012warming andas and co rapid carbon emission evidencen Dunlop, 2 a of human-inducedional oil, g the need for I at reductions.” r intern Forme e. xecutiv to ignore these warnings, preferring policy based on e “Officialdom chooses ‘political realism’, shorthand for hoping the problem will go away.” Paul Mahony 2013 l lian Coa te of ra he Aust lianshouldtu sti take air of t “Business, supposedly the experts on risk management, In ra Ch cluded he Aust given that realistic action t leadership, but n abrogated any responsibility, Roles i have n and CEO of will require a ciatio fundamental redesign of the economic system, undermining . sso A established vested interests.” rs irecto D ompany C “The result is that nobody is seriously addressing the strategic risks to which we are exposed.”
Paul Mahony 2013 Michael E. Porter and Forest L. Reinhardt, Harvard Business School, 2007 Michael E. Porter and Forest L. Reinhardt, “Grist: A strategic approach to climate”, Harvard Business Review, Oct 2007
Michael E. Porter and Forest L. Reinhardt, Harvard Business School, 2007 Paul Mahony 2013 “Companies that persist in treating climate change solely as a corporate social responsibility issue, rather than a business problem, will risk the greatest consequences.” Michael E. Porter and Forest L. Reinhardt, “Grist: A strategic approach to climate”, Harvard Business Review, Oct 2007
Michael E. Porter and Forest L. Reinhardt, Harvard Business School, 2007 “Companies that persist in treating climate change solely as a corporate social responsibility issue, rather than a business problem, will risk the greatest consequences.” Paul Mahony 2013 “. . . The effects of climate on companies’ operations are now so tangible and certain that the issue is best addressed with the tools of the strategist, not the philanthropist.” Michael E. Porter and Forest L. Reinhardt, “Grist: A strategic approach to climate”, Harvard Business Review, Oct 2007
Paul Mahony 2013 Some quotes
Some quotes Paul Mahony 2013 “This generation has altered the composition of the atmosphere on a global scale through a steady increase in carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels.”
Some quotes “This generation has altered the composition of the atmosphere on a global scale through a steady increase in carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels.” Paul Mahony 2013 President Lyndon Johnson President Lyndon Johnson, 1965 message to Congress, cited in The Science Show, ABC Radio National, 8 January, 2011, “Naomi Oreskes – Merchants of Doubt”. Seal of the President of the United States © Americanspirit | Dreamstime.com
Some quotes “This generation has altered the composition of the atmosphere on a global scale through a steady increase in carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels.” Paul Mahony 2013 President Lyndon Johnson 1965 President Lyndon Johnson, 1965 message to Congress, cited in The Science Show, ABC Radio National, 8 January, 2011, “Naomi Oreskes – Merchants of Doubt”. Seal of the President of the United States © Americanspirit | Dreamstime.com
Paul Mahony 2013 Some more quotes
Some more quotes Paul Mahony 2013 “Not only is it real, it's here, and its effects are giving rise to a frighteningly new global phenomenon: the manmade natural disaster.”
Some more quotes “Not only is it real, it's here, and its effects are giving rise to a frighteningly new global phenomenon: the manmade natural disaster.” Paul Mahony 2013 Barack Obama, 3 April 2006 Barack Obama, 3 April 2006, cited in Spratt, D, “Bridging the gap between science and politics”, Climate Action Summit, 9 April, 2011, http://www.climateactioncentre.org/sites/default/files/1104%20-recent-science.pdf Image: President Barack Obama © Kurniawan1972 | Dreamstime.com
What are we doing to the planet?
Paul Mahony 2013 Some developments in late 2011
Some developments in late 2011 Paul Mahony 2013 Arctic sea ice Nov 2011: Summer sea ice second lowest on record. (2012 set a new low.)
Some developments in late 2011 Arctic sea ice Paul Mahony 2013 Permafrost Nov 2011: Summer sea ice second lowest on record. (2012 set a new low.) Dec 2011: “Astonishing” and unprecedented releases of methane.
Some developments in late 2011 Arctic sea ice Nov 2011: Summer sea ice second lowest on record. (2012 set a new low.) Dec 2011: “Astonishing” and unprecedented releases of methane. Global greenhouse gas emissions Paul Mahony 2013 Permafrost Nov 2011: 2010 highest percentage increase on record.
Some developments in late 2011 Arctic sea ice Nov 2011: Summer sea ice second lowest on record. (2012 set a new low.) Permafrost Dec 2011: “Astonishing” and unprecedented releases of methane. Global greenhouse gas emissions Nov 2011: 2010 highest percentage increase on record. Paul Mahony 2013 International Energy Agency Nov 2011: The world is on the brink of irreversible climate change . . . in five years global warming will hit a point of no return after which it will be impossible to reverse the process.
Paul Mahony 2013 Our warming planet 27
Paul Mahony 2013 Our warming planet http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/videogallery/index.html?media_id=123437001 28
Paul Mahony 2013 Our warming planet http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/videogallery/index.html?media_id=123437001 29
Paul Mahony 2013 Our warming planet http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/videogallery/index.html?media_id=123437001 30
Paul Mahony 2013 Our warming planet NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature Analysis, http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgibin/gistemp/do_nmap.py?year_last=2012&month_last=1&sat=4&sst=1&type=anoms&mean_gen=11&year1=2010&year2=2010&b ase1=1951&base2=1980&radius=1200&pol=reg 31
Paul Mahony 2013 Our warming planet Skeptical Science http://skepticalscience.com/solar-activity-sunspots-global-warming.htm 32
Our warming planet 300 1750 2,000 years Paul Mahony 2013 Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 Source: Adapted from Australian Academy of Science “The Science of Climate Change: 33 Questions and Answers”, Fig. 4.1, p. 10 0
Our warming planet 391 ppm as at Sep 2012 2000 380 300 1750 2,000 years Paul Mahony 2013 Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 Source: Adapted from Australian Academy of Science “The Science of Climate Change: 34 Questions and Answers”, Fig. 4.1, p. 10 0
The Arctic “Big Melt” Paul Mahony 2013 1984 NASA Earth Observatory, http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=79256&src=eorss-iotd 35
The Arctic “Big Melt” Paul Mahony 2013 2012 NASA Earth Observatory, http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=79256&src=eorss-iotd 36
Paul Mahony 2013 The Arctic “Big Melt” National Snow & Ice Data Center, A better year for the cryosphere, http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2013/10/a-better-year-for-the-cryosphere/
Paul Mahony 2013 The Arctic “Big Melt” National Snow & Ice Data Center, A better year for the cryosphere, http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2013/10/a-better-year-for-the-cryosphere/
Paul Mahony 2013 The Arctic “Big Melt” National Snow & Ice Data Center, A better year for the cryosphere, http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2013/10/a-better-year-for-the-cryosphere/
Paul Mahony 2013 The Arctic “Big Melt” National Snow & Ice Data Center, A better year for the cryosphere, http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2013/10/a-better-year-for-the-cryosphere/
Paul Mahony 2013 The Arctic “Big Melt” National Snow & Ice Data Center, A better year for the cryosphere, http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2013/10/a-better-year-for-the-cryosphere/
The Arctic “Big Melt” Paul Mahony 2013 Even with the 2013 increase, the 1981 to 2010 average was 22% higher than this year’s extent. National Snow & Ice Data Center, A better year for the cryosphere, http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2013/10/a-better-year-for-the-cryosphere/
Paul Mahony 2013 The Arctic “Big Melt” – Projected vs Actual Arctic Summer Sea Ice Cited in Romm, J. “An Illustrated Guide to the Science of Global Warming Impacts: How We Know Inaction Is the Gravest Threat Humanity Faces”, Climate Progress, 14 Oct, 2012 http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/10/14/1009121/science-of-global-warming-impacts-guide/. Originally from http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2012/09/models-are-improving-but-can-they-catch-up.html, adapted from http://climatecrocks.com/2011/09/09/graph-of-theday-arctic-ice-melt-how-much-faster-than-predicted/ which in turn based on Stroeve et al. http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2007GL029703.shtml 43
The Arctic “Big Melt” 16.9 Volume (area and thickness) Paul Mahony 2013 3.6 Chart by L. Hamilton, based on Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) data from the Polar Science Center http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/, cited in Romm, J, “Experts Warn Of ‘Near Ice-Free Arctic In Summer’ In A Decade”, 6 September, 2012, The Energy Collective, http://theenergycollective.com/josephromm/110216/death-spiral-watch-experts-warn-near-ice-free-arctic-summer-decade-if-volumetrend 44
Paul Mahony 2013 The Arctic “Big Melt” – Exponential Trending From Brook, B. “Depressing climate-related trends – but who gets it?”, 6 Nov 2011 http://bravenewclimate.com/2011/11/06/depressing-climate-trends/ based on Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS, Zhang and Rothrock, 2003) graphs from the Polar Science Center of the Applied Physics Laboratory at the University of 45 Washington, http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/, reported in http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2011/10/piomas-september-2011-volume-record-lower-still.html
The Arctic “Big Melt” “The extra open water already created by the retreating ice allows bigger waves to be generated by storms, which are sweeping away the surviving ice. It is truly the case that it will be all gone by 2015. The consequences are enormous and represent a huge boost to global warming.” Paul Mahony 2013 Peter Wadhams, professor of ocean physics at Cambridge University David Spratt, “Big call: Cambridge prof. predicts Arctic summer sea ice ‘all gone by 2015’”, 30 Aug 2012, http://www.climatecodered.org/2012/08/big-call-cambridge-prof-predicts-arctic.html 46
What are the implications for the Greenland ice sheet?
The Arctic “Big Melt” Paul Mahony 2013 The danger is that an ice-free state in the Arctic summer will kick the climate system into run-on warming and create an aberrant new climate state many, many degrees hotter. 48
The Arctic “Big Melt” The danger is that an ice-free state in the Arctic summer will kick the climate system into run-on warming and create an aberrant new climate state many, many degrees hotter. Paul Mahony 2013 The Arctic sea-ice is the first domino and it is falling fast. 49
The Arctic “Big Melt” The danger is that an ice-free state in the Arctic summer will kick the climate system into run-on warming and create an aberrant new climate state many, many degrees hotter. The Arctic sea-ice is the first domino and it is falling fast. Those dominoes include the Greenland ice sheet. Paul Mahony 2013 Spratt, D and Lawson, D, “Bubbling our way to the Apocalypse”, Rolling Stone, November 2008, pp. 53-55 50
The Arctic “Big Melt” The danger is that an ice-free state in the Arctic summer will kick the climate system into run-on warming and create an aberrant new climate state many, many degrees hotter. The Arctic sea-ice is the first domino and it is falling fast. Those dominoes include the Greenland ice sheet. Spratt, D and Lawson, D, “Bubbling our way to the Apocalypse”, Rolling Stone, November 2008, pp. 53-55 Paul Mahony 2013 “It is difficult to imagine how the Greenland ice sheet could survive if Arctic sea ice is lost entirely in the warm season.” Hansen, J., “Storms of my granchildren”, p. 164 51
Paul Mahony 2013 Greenland Ice Sheet Scale comparison of Greenland (the largest island) and Australia (the smallest continent) by Joanna Serah, 26 Oct 2011, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Australia-Greenland_Overlay.png 52
Paul Mahony 2013 Greenland Ice Sheet M. Todesco, Cryospheric Processes Laboratory, City College New York City, http://cryocity.org/ 53
Greenland Ice Sheet Paul Mahony 2013 pear ch disap g , w hi t t wo re formin sa more tha c e of t, lake gh ice shee , a distan cascading throu tom land reen e bot ater On the G ns (craters) to th es. The w ase, as n mouli n many c d lubricates the b sibly )i do w an reds, pos .25 miles s (1 hund sheet kilometre s the ice are many warm There moulins melting. t he rther et. ting to fu ns on the ice she sea contribu ctions of f mouli s, o s pr oj e thousand he IPCC’ or i n t ounted f ot acc cess is n This pro . level rise M. Todesco, Cryospheric Processes Laboratory, City College New York City, http://cryocity.org/ 54
Paul Mahony 2013 Greenland Ice Sheet NOAA Climate Services, http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/article/2011/greenland-ice-sheet-getting-darker-2 55
Greenland Ice Sheet Paul Mahony 2013 the anges in e to ch eas is du as its ing ar nowpack non-melt the s in the rystals in rkening ice c Th e da ize of the ds shape an es. rature ris tempe NOAA Climate Services, http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/article/2011/greenland-ice-sheet-getting-darker-2 56
Paul Mahony 2013 Greenland Ice Sheet NOAA Climate Services, http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/article/2011/greenland-ice-sheet-getting-darker-2
Greenland Ice Sheet 58
Paul Mahony 2013 The Arctic “Big Melt” http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/greenland-melt.html "Greenland Melting Breaks Record Four Weeks Before Season's End", ScienceDaily, 15 August, 2012, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/08/120815121318.htm 59
Paul Mahony 2013 The Arctic “Big Melt” http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/greenland-melt.html "Greenland Melting Breaks Record Four Weeks Before Season's End", ScienceDaily, 15 August, 2012, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/08/120815121318.htm 60
The Arctic “Big Melt” Paul Mahony 2013 g at thawin one underg lly t had e shee ad dramatica ad the ic ce h ng h ent of perc e melti e sheet surfa ut 40 ys, th 12 abo just a few da ent of the ic 8, 20 . In perc n July O surface stimated 97 the or near ed and an e rat accele y July 12. b thawed http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/greenland-melt.html "Greenland Melting Breaks Record Four Weeks Before Season's End", ScienceDaily, 15 August, 2012, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/08/120815121318.htm 61
Paul Mahony 2013 The Arctic “Big Melt” g at thawin one underg lly t had e shee ad dramatica ad the ic ce h ng h ent of perc e melti e sheet surfa ut 40 ys, th 12 abo just a few da ent of the ic 8, 20 . In perc n July O surface stimated 97 the or near ed and an e rat way accele y July 12. will fall atellite lting es awed b rall me th elt sinc 's ove year est m st, this e great ugu r - th ity me in A a goliath yea t to co atory, C bor at's e ye sses La ith mor d records. Th "W Proce the ol 79." pheric ryos in 19 above ocity C began ng Cry recordi co Tedesco, ar Prof. M ew York N College http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/greenland-melt.html "Greenland Melting Breaks Record Four Weeks Before Season's End", ScienceDaily, 15 August, 2012, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/08/120815121318.htm 62
Antarctic Warming
Paul Mahony 2013 Antarctic Warming NASA Earth Observatory, Antarctic Warming Trends, 23 Jan 2009, http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=36736 64
Antarctic Warming Paul Mahony 2013 Between November 9–11, 2013, a large iceberg finally separated from the calving front of Antarctica’s Pine Island Glacier . . . Named B-31 by the U.S. National Ice Center, the new iceberg is estimated to be 35 kilometers by 20 kilometers (21 by 12 miles), roughly the size of Singapore. NASA Earth Observatory, Major Iceberg Cracks off Pine Island Glacier, http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=82392 65
Paul Mahony 2013 All Ice Sheets and Glaciers NSIDC, “The Contribution of the Cryosphere to Changes in Sea Level”, http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/sotc/sea_level.html 66
Paul Mahony 2013 All Ice Sheets and Glaciers NSIDC, “The Contribution of the Cryosphere to Changes in Sea Level”, http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/sotc/sea_level.html 67
Global sea level rise Projections to 2100: IPCC: Up to 1 metre (but higher values cannot be excluded) Vermeer and Rahmstorf: nearly 2 metres Hansen: Likely several metres (see next slide) if we continue with “business as usual”, depending on impact of negative (diminishing) feedbacks. Impacts: Experienced through “high sea-level events” . Paul Mahony 2013 A combination of sea-level rise, high tide and storm surge. Increased likelihood with 0.5 of a metre: 100 to 1,000 fold increase Steffen, W, “The Critical Decade: Climate Science, risks and responses”, Climate Commission, Fig. 8, p. 12 http://climatecommission.gov.au/topics/the-critical-decade/ Spratt, D, “NASA climate chief demolishes denialist claims on sea levels”, 26 Oct 2012, http://www.climatecodered.org/2012/10/nasa-climatechief-demolishes-denialist.html and Hansen, J & Sato, M “Update of Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Loss: Exponential?”, 26 Dec 2012
Global sea level rise What about IPCC’s projection of less than 1 metre? Only allows for certain short feedback mechanisms, e.g. changes in: • water vapour • clouds • sea ice Does not allow for slow feedbacks, e.g.: • ice sheet dynamics; • changes in vegetation cover; Paul Mahony 2013 • permafrost melting; and • carbon-cycle feedbacks. Spratt, D and Sutton, P, “Climate Code Red: The case for emergency action”, Scribe, 2008, p. 47
Global sea level rise Tim Flannery, Australian Climate Change Commissioner and former Australian of the Year: IPCC is “painfully conservative” because it Paul Mahony 2013 “works by consensus and includes government representatives from the United States, China and Saudi Arabia, all of whom must assent to every word of every finding”. Spratt, D, “Global Warming – No more business as usual: This is an emergency!”, Environmental Activists’ Conference 2008: Climate Emergency – No More Business as Usual, 10 October, 2008, reproduced in Links International Journal of Socialist Renewal, http://links.org.au/node/683 (Accessed 4 February 2012) 70
Paul Mahony 2013 Permafrost Connor, S, “Vast methane 'plumes' seen in Arctic ocean as sea ice retreats”, The Independent, 13 December, 2011, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/vast-methane-plumes-seen-in-arctic-ocean-as-sea-ice-retreats71 6276278.html (Accessed 4 February 2012)
Permafrost • Dramatic and unprecedented plumes of methane . . . have been seen bubbling to the surface of the Arctic Ocean by scientists undertaking an extensive survey of the region. Paul Mahony 2013 • The scale and volume of the methane release has astonished the head of the Russian research team who has been surveying the seabed of the east Siberian Arctic Shelf off northern Russia for nearly 20 years. • Igor Semiletov of the International Arctic Research Centre at the University of Alaska Fairbanks . . . said that he has never before witnessed the scale and force has never before witnessed the scale and force of the methane being released from beneath the Arctic seabed. Connor, S, “Vast methane 'plumes' seen in Arctic ocean as sea ice retreats”, The Independent, 13 December, 2011, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/vast-methane-plumes-seen-in-arctic-ocean-as-sea-ice-retreats72 6276278.html (Accessed 4 February 2012)
Permafrost Dramatic and unprecedented Paul Mahony 2013 astonished has never before witnessed the scale and force of the methane being released from beneath the Arctic seabed. Connor, S, “Vast methane 'plumes' seen in Arctic ocean as sea ice retreats”, The Independent, 13 December, 2011, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/vast-methane-plumes-seen-in-arctic-ocean-as-sea-ice-retreats73 6276278.html (Accessed 4 February 2012)
Permafrost ionary at 115 st a t t abou ields of . ecks a hane f before ch t n ied ou vered met ot see re wide n rr scale e or mo We ca d disco " a an nk on kilometr i points le - I th were a e astonished ic sca nto th ndred t i s fantas the plume irectly as a hu of went d tion w Some emissions ra Alaska ncent o he sity of c ver and t e - the ormal," ch Centre at the Uni r osphe r than n Arctic Resear atm highoethe International timesemiletov f S Dramatic and unprecedented Paul Mahony 2013 r Dr Igo s nk Fairba has never before witnessed the scale and force of the methane being released from beneath the Arctic seabed. Reuters, “Arctic methane release could cost economy $60 trillion: Study”, 24 July, 2013 Connor, S, “Vast methane 'plumes' seen in Arctic ocean as sea ice retreats”, The Independent, 13 December, 2011, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/vast-methane-plumes-seen-in-arctic-ocean-as-sea-ice-retreats74 6276278.html (Accessed 4 February 2012)
Permafrost s): erland Neth rsity ( iv e u s Un st Erasm der Ea un nd rsity a e from nive than of me idge U r se Camb e relea tonn 0 giga ecade of 5 nario a over a d Sce astonished n Se iberia S b” lio n e-bom 60 tril y$ tim acts b nomic co imp An “e hange te c lion l clima loba 70 tril is $ se g nomy Increa l eco globa of l value Annua Paul Mahony 2013 Dramatic and unprecedented has never before witnessed the scale and force of the methane being released from beneath the Arctic seabed. Reuters, “Arctic methane release could cost economy $60 trillion: Study”, 24 July, 2013 Connor, S, “Vast methane 'plumes' seen in Arctic ocean as sea ice retreats”, The Independent, 13 December, 2011, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/vast-methane-plumes-seen-in-arctic-ocean-as-sea-ice-retreats75 6276278.html (Accessed 4 February 2012)
Some tangible results of changes in the Arctic, Antarctica and elsewhere in the form of extreme weather events
Extreme Weather (Storms) “Further warming of the Greenland ice sheet and of the west and east Antarctic ice sheets may lead to pulses of ice-melt water which will cool adjacent ocean basins.” “The bulk of the continents continue to heat, due to a rise in greenhouse gases, feedbacks from fires, methane release from permafrost and reduction of CO2 intake by warming oceans.” “The resultant ocean-land temperature polarity generates storms, reflected in the title of James Hansen’s book, ‘Storms of my grandchildren’.” Paul Mahony 2013 “Similar conditions developed in November 2010 as north Siberia and Canada warmed to above 4° relative to C 1951-1980 while snow storms occurred in the North Atlantic.” Glikson, A., “As emissions rise, we may be heading for an ice-free planet”, The Conversation, 18 January, 2012, http://theconversation.edu.au/as-emissions-rise-we-may-be-heading-for-an-ice-free-planet-4893 (Accessed 4 February 2012). NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature Analysis, http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi77 bin/gistemp/do_nmap.py?year_last=2012&month_last=1&sat=4&sst=1&type=anoms&mean_gen=11&year1=2010&year2=2010&base 1=1951&base2=1980&radius=1200&pol=reg
Extreme Weather (Storms) Also: Latent heat (more prevalent with more water vapour and provides more energy to fuel storms) Paul Mahony 2013 Warm land mass (and moisture in the atmosphere behind the warm front) and colder oceans elsewhere from melting ice (previous slide) Hansen, J., “Storms of my grandchildren”, Bloomsbury, 2009, pp. 253-257 and Image: Jhanz (Dreamstime.com) 78
The link between extreme weather and global warming – Kevin Trenberth Paul Mahony 2013 I find it systematically tends to get underplayed . . . Because one of the opening statements . . . is “Well you can’t attribute a single event to climate change.” Dr. Kevin Trenberth, former head of the Climate Analysis Section of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, quoted in Romm, J. “Tornadoes, Extreme Weather And Climate Change, Revisited”, Climate Progress, 21 May, 2013 http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/05/21/2040221/tornadoes-extreme-weather-and-climate-change-revisited/ 79
The link between extreme weather and global warming – Kevin Trenberth I find it systematically tends to get underplayed . . . Because one of the opening statements . . . is “Well you can’t attribute a single event to climate change.” Paul Mahony 2013 But there is a systematic influence on all of these weather events now-a-days because of the fact that there is [more] water vapor lurking around in the atmosphere than there used to be say 30 years ago. Dr. Kevin Trenberth, former head of the Climate Analysis Section of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, quoted in Romm, J. “Tornadoes, Extreme Weather And Climate Change, Revisited”, Climate Progress, 21 May, 2013 http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/05/21/2040221/tornadoes-extreme-weather-and-climate-change-revisited/ 80
The link between extreme weather and global warming – Kevin Trenberth Paul Mahony 2013 It’s about a 4% extra amount, it invigorates the storms, it provides plenty of moisture for these storms and it’s unfortunate that the public is not associating these with the fact that this is one manifestation of climate change. Dr. Kevin Trenberth, former head of the Climate Analysis Section of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, quoted in Romm, J. “Tornadoes, Extreme Weather And Climate Change, Revisited”, Climate Progress, 21 May, 2013 http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/05/21/2040221/tornadoes-extreme-weather-and-climate-change-revisited/ 81
The link between extreme weather and global warming – Kevin Trenberth It’s about a 4% extra amount, it invigorates the storms, it provides plenty of moisture for these storms and it’s unfortunate that the public is not associating these with the fact that this is one manifestation of climate change. Paul Mahony 2013 And the prospects are that these kinds of things will only get bigger and worse in the future. Dr. Kevin Trenberth, former head of the Climate Analysis Section of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, quoted in Romm, J. “Tornadoes, Extreme Weather And Climate Change, Revisited”, Climate Progress, 21 May, 2013 http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/05/21/2040221/tornadoes-extreme-weather-and-climate-change-revisited/ 82
Paul Mahony 2013 High Sea Surface Temperatures and Floods – Kevin Trenberth (SST = “sea surface temperature”) Dr. Kevin Trenberth, “Framing the way to relate climate extremes to climate change”, Climatic Change, November 2012, Volume 115, Issue 2, pp 283-290, http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-012-0441-5/fulltext.html and http://download.springer.com/static/pdf/618/art%253A10.1007%252Fs10584-012-04415.pdf?auth66=1385578067_f8586f44b3eb6d6600165a7d12d3a6ae&ext=.pdf, cited in Romm, J., “Must-Read Trenberth: How to Relate Climate Extremes to Climatic Change”, Climate Progress, 25 March, 2012, http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/03/25/451347/must-read-trenberth-how-to-relate-climate-extremes-to-climate-change/ 83
Paul Mahony 2013 High Sea Surface Temperatures and Floods – Kevin Trenberth (SST = “sea surface temperature”) Dr. Kevin Trenberth, “Framing the way to relate climate extremes to climate change”, Climatic Change, November 2012, Volume 115, Issue 2, pp 283-290, http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-012-0441-5/fulltext.html and http://download.springer.com/static/pdf/618/art%253A10.1007%252Fs10584-012-04415.pdf?auth66=1385578067_f8586f44b3eb6d6600165a7d12d3a6ae&ext=.pdf, cited in Romm, J., “Must-Read Trenberth: How to Relate Climate Extremes to Climatic Change”, Climate Progress, 25 March, 2012, http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/03/25/451347/must-read-trenberth-how-to-relate-climate-extremes-to-climate-change/ 84
Paul Mahony 2013 Ocean Warming NOAA, “Why did Earth’s surface temperature stop rising in the past decade?”, 8 Nov 2013, http://www.climate.gov/newsfeatures/climate-qa/why-did-earth%E2%80%99s-surface-temperature-stop-rising-past-decade Adapted from Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Kevin E. Trenberth, Erland Källé, “Distinctive climate signals in reanalysis of global ocean heat content”, Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 40, Issue 9, pages 1754–1759, 16 May 2013 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50382/abstract and http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/Trenberth/websitearchive/trenberth.papers-moved/Balmaseda_Trenberth_Kallen_grl_13.pdf 85
Evidence from CSIRO and BOM Paul Mahony 2013 Record and above average rainfall 2 years to Mar ‘12 Source: Bureau of Meteorology 86
Evidence from CSIRO and BOM Paul Mahony 2013 Record and above average rainfall 1 Jan ’97 – 31/12/11 Source: Bureau of Meteorology cited in Climate Commission “Critical Decade: Extreme Weather” 87
Evidence from CSIRO and BOM Paul Mahony 2013 Record hot days Source: CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, cited in Australian Academy of Science, “The Science of Climate Change: Questions and 88 Answers”, Aug 2010, Fig 3.3 http://www.science.org.au/reports/climatechange2010.pdf
Evidence from CSIRO and BOM Paul Mahony 2013 Record cold days Source: CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, cited in Australian Academy of Science, “The Science of Climate Change: Questions and 89 Answers”, Aug 2010, Fig 3.3 http://www.science.org.au/reports/climatechange2010.pdf
Evidence from Climate Commission Paul Mahony 2013 Global average rainfall trends 1900 – 2010 Source: Donat, M.G., et al (2013a). Updated analyses of temperature and precipitation extreme indices since the beginning of the twentieth century: The HadEX2 dataset, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmosphere 118 doi:10.1002/jgrd.50150, cited in Climate 90 Commission" Critical Decade: Extreme Weather”, April 2013
Paul Mahony 2013 Evidence from Climate Commission Source: Donat, M.G., et al (2013a). Updated analyses of temperature and precipitation extreme indices since the beginning of the twentieth century: The HadEX2 dataset, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmosphere 118 doi:10.1002/jgrd.50150, cited in Climate 91 Commission" Critical Decade: Extreme Weather”, April 2013
Extreme Weather Paul Mahony 2013 The jet stream is becoming “wavier,” with steeper troughs and higher ridges. Weather systems are progressing more slowly, raising the chances for longduration extreme events Image: National Weather Service JetStream - Online School for Weather http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/global/jet.htm Jennifer A. Francis, Stephen J. Vavrus, “Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes”, Geophysical Research Letters Volume 39, Issue 6, March 2012, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL051000/abstract cited in Freedman, A., “Arctic Warming is Altering Weather Patterns, Study Shows”, 30 Sep, 2012, http://www.climatecentral.org/news/arctic-warming-is-altering-weather-patterns-studyshows/ 92
Extreme Weather Paul Mahony 2013 ould 0 feet c 0,00 Bay, ing at 3 udson r f ly to H tline ve, a je straight north at wa xas xas] he e [Te from Te ng th ream int duri e jet st po n th At one a ride o hed ave hitc h . Canada Image: From Weatherunderground, cited in Freedman, A., “Arctic Warming is Altering Weather Patterns, Study Shows”, 30 Sep, 2012, http://www.climatecentral.org/news/arctic-warming-is-altering-weather-patterns-study-shows/ Jennifer A. Francis, Stephen J. Vavrus, “Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes”, Geophysical Research Letters Volume 39, Issue 6, March 2012, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL051000/abstract cited in Freedman, A., “Arctic Warming is Altering Weather Patterns, Study Shows”, 30 Sep, 2012, http://www.climatecentral.org/news/arctic-warming-is-altering-weather-patterns-studyshows/ 93
Paul Mahony 2013 Superstorm Sandy October 2012 Greene, C.H., J.A. Francis, and B.C. Monger. 2013. “Superstorm Sandy: A series of unfortunate events?” Oceanography 26(1):8–9, http://dx.doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2013.11 and http://www.tos.org/oceanography/archive/26-1_greene.pdf , cited in “How Arctic Ice Loss Amplified Superstorm Sandy — Oceanography Journal”, Joe Romm, Climate Progress, 15 March, 2013 http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/03/15/1725461/how-arctic-ice-loss-amplified-superstorm-sandy-oceanography-journal/ 94
Superstorm Sandy October 2012 Paul Mahony 2013 f issue o e rch the Ma rctic sea ic rt in eA rs repo mertim nce Northern ns arche sum rese ha sio loss of utgers rs to en air mass inva vere nd R se ea ll a “Corne raphy that the warming - app sify Arctic eric mosph o g e en at int Oceano to greenhous eandering, int frequency of y west m ed the and attribut t stream and increase cane S je urri isphere latitudes, ered H He m t ste iddle one tha City area” m he toward ts like t n York ing eve pulated New block po ensely the d Greene, C.H., J.A. Francis, and B.C. Monger. 2013. “Superstorm Sandy: A series of unfortunate events?” Oceanography 26(1):8–9, http://dx.doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2013.11 and http://www.tos.org/oceanography/archive/26-1_greene.pdf , cited in “How Arctic Ice Loss Amplified Superstorm Sandy — Oceanography Journal”, Joe Romm, Climate Progress, 15 March, 2013 http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/03/15/1725461/how-arctic-ice-loss-amplified-superstorm-sandy-oceanography-journal/ 95
Paul Mahony 2013 Superstorm Sandy October 2012 Greene, C.H., J.A. Francis, and B.C. Monger. 2013. “Superstorm Sandy: A series of unfortunate events?” Oceanography 26(1):8–9, http://dx.doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2013.11 and http://www.tos.org/oceanography/archive/26-1_greene.pdf , cited in “How Arctic Ice Loss Amplified Superstorm Sandy — Oceanography Journal”, Joe Romm, Climate Progress, 15 March, 2013 http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/03/15/1725461/how-arctic-ice-loss-amplified-superstorm-sandy-oceanography-journal/ 96
Paul Mahony 2013 Natural Catastrophes 1980 – 2012 (Munich Re) 97
Paul Mahony 2013 Natural Catastrophes - Australia (2011 Dollars) Insurance Council of Australia, “Catastrophe Events and the Community”, http://www.insurancecouncil.com.au/issuesubmissions/issues/catastrophe-events 98
Change in risk levels (likelihood and consequences)
High and Extreme Risk - Maplecroft Paul Mahony 2013 Maplecroft is a US-based risk consulting firm providing a portfolio of risk analytics, country risk research, mapping and risk calculator technology to multinational corporations, financial institutions, governments and NGOs. Maplecroft: http://maplecroft.com/about/introducing-maplecroft/ 100
High and Extreme Risk - Maplecroft 31% of global economic output will be based in countries facing ‘high’ or ‘extreme’ risks from the impacts of climate change by 2025. That’s a 50% increase on current levels and more than double since Maplecroft began researching the issue in 2008. Paul Mahony 2013 Includes 67 countries whose estimated combined output of $44 trillion will come under increasing threat from the physical impacts of more frequent and extreme climate-related events, such as severe storms, flooding or drought. Extreme risk cities: Dhaka, Bangladesh; Manila, Philippines; Bangkok, Thailand; Yangon, Myanmar; Jakarta, Indonesia; Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam; and Kolkata (Calcutta), India Maplecroft: http://maplecroft.com/about/news/ccvi_2013.html; http://maplecroft.com/portfolio/new-analysis/2013/10/30/31-global-economic-outputforecast-face-high-or-extreme-climate-change-risks-2025-maplecroft-risk-atlas/ Image: Monsoon flooding in Bangkok, October 2011 © Thor Jorgen Udvang | Dreamstime.com 101
High and Extreme Risk - Maplecroft 31% of global economic output will be based in countries facing ‘high’ or ‘extreme’ risks from the impacts of climate change by 2025. le ulnerab levels v That’s a 50% increase on current eavily in since Maplecroft and g h vestinmore than double in began researching the issue in 2008. brands al ft. . . glob “. ts . . . “ nment at Maplecro markewhose estimated combined output of $44 trillion will thcountriesad of Enviro Includes 67 grow e H Paul Mahony 2013 come mes Aincreasing threat from the physical impacts of more frequent and under llan, Ja extreme climate-related events, such as severe storms, flooding or drought. Extreme risk cities: Dhaka, Bangladesh; Manila, Philippines; Bangkok, Thailand; Yangon, Myanmar; Jakarta, Indonesia; Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam; and Kolkata (Calcutta), India Maplecroft: http://maplecroft.com/about/news/ccvi_2013.html; http://maplecroft.com/portfolio/new-analysis/2013/10/30/31-global-economic-outputforecast-face-high-or-extreme-climate-change-risks-2025-maplecroft-risk-atlas/ Image: Monsoon flooding in Bangkok, October 2011 © Thor Jorgen Udvang | Dreamstime.com 102
High and Extreme Risk - Maplecroft Extreme risk countries include: Nigeria, Cambodia, Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, China, India, Pakistan and Vietnam. Paul Mahony 2013 High risk countries include: Indonesia, Thailand, Kenya and China. Maplecroft: http://maplecroft.com/about/news/ccvi_2013.html; http://maplecroft.com/portfolio/new-analysis/2013/10/30/31-globaleconomic-output-forecast-face-high-or-extreme-climate-change-risks-2025-maplecroft-risk-atlas/ Image: Monsoon flooding in Bangkok, October 2011 © Thor Jorgen Udvang | Dreamstime.com 103
High and Extreme Risk - Maplecroft Extreme risk countries include: Nigeria, Cambodia, Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, China, India, Pakistan and ] Vietnam. cluding [in Paul Mahony 2013 a, ver Delt oshan . . . Ri e Pearl and F and th uancountries include: the g g en High u, Dong risk d, are amon Indonesia, Shenzh “ ho Thailand, Kenya and China. Guangz ring heartlan ities of u c anufact ft. hina’s m ed . . .” Maplecro C os ost exp m Maplecroft: http://maplecroft.com/about/news/ccvi_2013.html; http://maplecroft.com/portfolio/new-analysis/2013/10/30/31-globaleconomic-output-forecast-face-high-or-extreme-climate-change-risks-2025-maplecroft-risk-atlas/ Image: Monsoon flooding in Bangkok, October 2011 © Thor Jorgen Udvang | Dreamstime.com 104
High and Extreme Risk - Maplecroft Extreme risk countries include: Nigeria, Cambodia, Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, China, India, Pakistan and Vietnam. Chinese k’ Paul Mahony 2013 ris g y ‘high ies usin man o an nce of s ncern to comp ra include: e appea ticular co High risk countriesWater Indonesia, “T h r g base. China. a n Thailand, s is of p a manufacturi Kenya and citie as country plecroft. t he Ma ss . . .” stre Maplecroft: http://maplecroft.com/about/news/ccvi_2013.html; http://maplecroft.com/portfolio/new-analysis/2013/10/30/31-globaleconomic-output-forecast-face-high-or-extreme-climate-change-risks-2025-maplecroft-risk-atlas/ Image: Monsoon flooding in Bangkok, October 2011 © Thor Jorgen Udvang | Dreamstime.com 105
High and Extreme Risk Extreme risk countries include: Nigeria, ] 07 [IPCC Cambodia,ve 20 i Philippines, Indonesia, rvatChina, India, Pakistane Thailand, might b and conse iers n Vietnam.glac alaya E lly ientifica m sc . . . the “ H OF TH ELTING t the Hi ha XT ONE-SI rt said t repo N THE M KS tury. O en C RE risk countries include: Indonesia, y mid-c ATION HighLIES gone b NOW PA Red: L Thailand, L S o ’S POPU D SEASONAKenya andaChina.de lim te C EARTH ERS AN or “C CI , co-auth pratt OF GLA David S ATER.” ncy action” FOR W r emerge Paul Mahony 2013 the case fo Maplecroft: http://maplecroft.com/about/news/ccvi_2013.html; http://maplecroft.com/portfolio/new-analysis/2013/10/30/31-globaleconomic-output-forecast-face-high-or-extreme-climate-change-risks-2025-maplecroft-risk-atlas/ Image: Monsoon flooding in Bangkok, October 2011 © Thor Jorgen Udvang | Dreamstime.com “Global Warming – No more business as usual: This is an emergency!”, Environmental Activists’ Conference ’08: Climate Emergency – No More Business as Usual, 10 October, 2008, reproduced in Links International Journal of Socialist Renewal, http://links.org.au/node/683 Image: Earth and moon © Cornelius20 | Dreamstime.com 106
High and Extreme Risk Extreme risk countries include: Nigeria, Cambodia, Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, China, India, Pakistan and n Vietnam. n lives i tio la he popu rovides ft tp to cial mel avid Spratt, per cen gla hina, 23 ions, where risk countries .” D High e “In C sou and include: Indonesia, reg erKenya rc rgency action” t rn Thailand, ason wa ase for eme China. e weste th se pal dry e Red: the c ci the prin C od Paul Mahony 2013 a te hor “Clim co-aut Maplecroft: http://maplecroft.com/about/news/ccvi_2013.html; http://maplecroft.com/portfolio/new-analysis/2013/10/30/31-globaleconomic-output-forecast-face-high-or-extreme-climate-change-risks-2025-maplecroft-risk-atlas/ Image: Monsoon flooding in Bangkok, October 2011 © Thor Jorgen Udvang | Dreamstime.com “Global Warming – No more business as usual: This is an emergency!”, Environmental Activists’ Conference ’08: Climate Emergency – No More Business as Usual, 10 October, 2008, reproduced in Links International Journal of Socialist Renewal, http://links.org.au/node/683 Image: Earth and moon © Cornelius20 | Dreamstime.com 107
High and Extreme Risk Extreme risk countries include: Nigeria, Cambodia, Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, China, India, Pakistance and layan i Vietnam. the Hima f o ut the loss of BING, b s M lication AND MIND-NU p in “The im High a mcountries include: Indonesia, risk ention BAL O tes t are GL ee ely raThailand, Kenya and China. sh ar lamity r for ch a ca the case d: su Code Re ” a te ia. Austral , co-author “Clim Paul Mahony 2013 a tt avid Spr D tion” ency ac emerg Maplecroft: http://maplecroft.com/about/news/ccvi_2013.html; http://maplecroft.com/portfolio/new-analysis/2013/10/30/31-globaleconomic-output-forecast-face-high-or-extreme-climate-change-risks-2025-maplecroft-risk-atlas/ Image: Monsoon flooding in Bangkok, October 2011 © Thor Jorgen Udvang | Dreamstime.com “Global Warming – No more business as usual: This is an emergency!”, Environmental Activists’ Conference ’08: Climate Emergency – No More Business as Usual, 10 October, 2008, reproduced in Links International Journal of Socialist Renewal, http://links.org.au/node/683 Image: Earth and moon © Cornelius20 | Dreamstime.com 108
Some changes in likelihood or consequences from climate change Description Impact European heatwaves 2003 (35,000+ deaths, losses of €13 billion)1 6 fold Australia’s record-breaking temperatures 5 fold of 2012/132 2 - 7 fold Increased building damage from 25% increase in wind speed (40-50k to 50-60k)4 Paul Mahony 2013 Increased frequency of Katrina-strength (or greater) hurricanes for every 1oC rise in temperature3 650% 50 cm rise in sea level = increase in Typically several frequency of extreme inundation events.5 hundred - 1,000 fold 109 Ref: 1. Dr Myles Allen, Oxford University; 2. Sophie Lewis & David Karoly, Melbourne University; 3. Aslak Grinsted et al, University of Copenhagen (in PNAS); 4. Insurance Australia Group from ANU/IGCC report; 5. Australian Climate Commission “The Critical Decade: Extreme Weather”
Some changes in likelihood or consequences from climate change Description Impact European heatwaves 2003 (35,000+ deaths, losses of €13 billion): 6 fold.1 Australia’s record-breaking temperatures of 2012/13: 5 fold.2 Increased frequency of Katrina-strength (or greater) hurricanes for every 1oC rise in temperature: 2 - 7 fold.3 Paul Mahony 2013 Increased building damage from 25% increase in wind speed (40-50k to 50-60k)4 50 cm rise in sea level = increase in frequency of extreme inundation events.5 110 Ref: 1. Dr Myles Allen, Oxford University; 2. Sophie Lewis & David Karoly, Melbourne University; 3. Aslak Grinsted et al, University of Copenhagen (in PNAS); 4. Insurance Australia Group from ANU/IGCC report; 5. Australian Climate Commission “The Critical Decade: Extreme Weather”
Some changes in likelihood or consequences from climate change Description Impact European heatwaves 2003 (35,000+ deaths, losses of €13 billion)1 Australia’s record-breaking temperatures of 2012/132 Increased frequency of Katrina-strength (or greater) hurricanes for every 1oC rise in temperature3 Paul Mahony 2013 Increased building damage from 25% increase in wind speed (40-50k to 50-60k)4 50 cm rise in sea level = increase in frequency of extreme inundation events.5 Ref: Australian Climate Commission “The Critical Decade: Extreme Weather”, p. 51 111
Some changes in likelihood or consequences from climate change Description Impact European heatwaves 2003 (35,000+ deaths, losses of €13 billion)1 Australia’s record-breaking temperatures of 2012/132 Increased frequency of Katrina-strength (or greater) hurricanes for every 1oC rise in temperature3 Paul Mahony 2013 Increased building damage from 25% increase in wind speed (40-50k to 50-60k)4 50 cm rise in sea level = increase in frequency of extreme inundation events.5 Ref: Australian Climate Commission “The Critical Decade: Extreme Weather”, p. 51 112
Some changes in likelihood or consequences from climate change Description Impact European heatwaves 2003 (35,000+ deaths, losses of €13 billion)1 Australia’s record-breaking temperatures of 2012/132 Increased frequency of Katrina-strength (or greater) hurricanes for every 1oC rise in temperature3 Paul Mahony 2013 Increased building damage from 25% increase in wind speed (40-50k to 50-60k)4 50 cm rise in sea level = increase in frequency of extreme inundation events.5 Ref: Australian Climate Commission “The Critical Decade: Extreme Weather”, p. 51 113
Some changes in likelihood or consequences from climate change Description Impact Increase in frequency of extreme European heatwaves 2003 (35,000+ inundation event several hundred billion)1 deaths, losses of €13 to 1,000 times. Australia’s record-breaking temperatures of 2012/132 Increased frequency of Katrina-strength (or greater) hurricanes for every 1oC rise in temperature3 Paul Mahony 2013 Increased building damage from 25% increase in wind speed (40-50k to 50-60k)4 50 cm rise in sea level = increase in frequency of extreme inundation events.5 Ref: Australian Climate Commission “The Critical Decade: Extreme Weather”, p. 51 114
Some changes in likelihood or consequences from climate change Description Impact Increase in frequency of extreme European heatwaves 2003 (35,000+ inundation event several hundred billion)1 deaths, losses of €13 to 1,000 times. Australia’s record-breaking temperatures Sydney2= 1,000 times. of 2012/13 Increased frequency of Katrina-strength (or greater) hurricanes for every 1oC rise in temperature3 Paul Mahony 2013 Increased building damage from 25% increase in wind speed (40-50k to 50-60k)4 50 cm rise in sea level = increase in frequency of extreme inundation events.5 Ref: Australian Climate Commission “The Critical Decade: Extreme Weather”, p. 51 115
Some changes in likelihood or consequences from climate change Description Impact Increase in frequency of extreme European heatwaves 2003 (35,000+ inundation event several hundred billion)1 deaths, losses of €13 to 1,000 times. Australia’s record-breaking temperatures Sydney2= 1,000 times. of 2012/13 Increased100 year event will occur almost monthly. A 1 in frequency of Katrina-strength (or greater) hurricanes for every 1oC rise in temperature3 Paul Mahony 2013 Increased building damage from 25% increase in wind speed (40-50k to 50-60k)4 50 cm rise in sea level = increase in frequency of extreme inundation events.5 Ref: Australian Climate Commission “The Critical Decade: Extreme Weather”, p. 51 116
Some changes in likelihood or consequences from climate change Description Impact European heatwaves 2003 (> 35,000 deaths, losses of €13 billion)1 6 fold Australia’s record-smashing “angry summer” of 2012/13 (123 records) 2 - 7 fold Increased building damage from 25% increase in wind speed (40-50k to 50-60k)4 Paul Mahony 2013 Increased frequency of Katrina-strength (or greater) hurricanes for every 1oC rise in temperature3 650% 50 cm rise in sea level = increase in Typically several frequency of extreme inundation events.5 hundred - 1,000 fold 117
Some changes in likelihood or consequences from climate change Description Impact European heatwaves 2003 (> 35,000 deaths, losses of €13 billion)1 6 fold Australia’s record-smashing “angry summer” of 2012/13 (123 records) Increased frequency of Katrina-strength 2 - 7 fold “Statistically, (or greater) hurricanes for every 1oC rise there is a 1 in 500 chance that we are talking about in temperature3 natural variation causing all these Increased building damage from records.” 650% new 25% Australian Climate increase in wind speed (40-50k to 50-60k)4 Commissioner Prof Will Paul Mahony 2013 Steffen, The Age 4 Mar 2013, “Climate 50 cm rise in sea level = increase in key factor in extremeseveral Typically weather, change a frequency of extreme inundation events.5 hundred - 1,000 experts say” fold 118
Paul Mahony 2013 The Angry Summer 119
Some changes in likelihood or consequences from climate change Impact Increased frequency of Category 4 and 5 Atlantic hurricanes by 21001 Double Increased frequency of extreme weather events2 10 fold Probability that 2010 Moscow heat wave (11,000 deaths) caused by climate change3 80% Increased frequency of abnormally wet or dry summer weather in southeastern USA4 Paul Mahony 2013 Description Double Ref: 1. Climate change, MSNBC, “Study: stronger hurricanes loom. Fewer expected but bigger storms to bring more damage”, commenting on Knutson et al (2010), 21 February 2010: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35506750/ns/us_news-environment/ and Knutuson, et al “Tropical cyclones and climate change”, Nature Geosciences, 3, 157 - 163 (2010): http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v3/n3/abs/ngeo779.html; 2. Tullus, Paul, “Global Warming: An exclusive look at James Hansen’s Scary New Math”, Time Science & Space, 10 May 2012 http://science.time.com/2012/05/10/global-warming-an-exclusive-look-at-james-hansens-scary-new-math/; 3. Tullus, Paul, ibid.; 4. Romm, J., Climate Progress, 28 Oct 2010, http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2010/10/28/206947/global-warming-extreme-wet-dry-summer-weather-in- 120 southeast-droughts-and-deluges/
Some changes in likelihood or consequences from climate change Description Impact Increased frequency of Category 4 and 5 Atlantic hurricanes by 2100: Double.1 Increased frequency of extreme weather events: 10 fold.2 Probability that 2010 Moscow heat wave (11,000 deaths) caused by climate change: 80%.3 Paul Mahony 2013 Increased frequency of abnormally wet or dry summer weather in SE USA4 Ref: 1. Climate change, MSNBC, “Study: stronger hurricanes loom. Fewer expected but bigger storms to bring more damage”, commenting on Knutson et al (2010), 21 February 2010: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35506750/ns/us_news-environment/ and Knutuson, et al “Tropical cyclones and climate change”, Nature Geosciences, 3, 157 - 163 (2010): http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v3/n3/abs/ngeo779.html; 2. Tullus, Paul, “Global Warming: An exclusive look at James Hansen’s Scary New Math”, Time Science & Space, 10 May 2012 http://science.time.com/2012/05/10/global-warming-an-exclusive-look-at-james-hansens-scary-new-math/; 3. Tullus, Paul, ibid.; 4. Romm, J., Climate Progress, 28 Oct 2010, http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2010/10/28/206947/global-warming-extreme-wet-dry-summer-weather-in- 121 southeast-droughts-and-deluges/
Some changes in likelihood or consequences from climate change Paul Mahony 2013 Melbourne, Australia, 26 Jan – 1 Feb 2009. 3 consecutive days above 43oC. 980 deaths = 62% above average for that period. Victorian Government Department of Human Service, 2009, “January 2009 Heatwave in Victoria: an Assessment of Health Impacts”, http://docs.health.vic.gov.au/docs/doc/F7EEA4050981101ACA257AD80074AE8B/%24FILE/heat_health_impact_rpt_Vic2009.pdf 122
Some changes in likelihood or consequences from climate change Melbourne, Australia, 26 Jan – 1 Feb 2009. 3 consecutive days above 43oC. 980 deaths = 62% above average for that period. Deaths in Melbourne 26 Jan - 1 Feb 2009 1200 1000 800 980 600 400 606 200 Paul Mahony 2013 0 Standard Climate change impact Victorian Government Department of Human Service, 2009, “January 2009 Heatwave in Victoria: an Assessment of Health Impacts”, http://docs.health.vic.gov.au/docs/doc/F7EEA4050981101ACA257AD80074AE8B/%24FILE/heat_health_impact_rpt_Vic2009.pdf 123
Some changes in likelihood or consequences from climate change Paul Mahony 2013 650% increase in building damage from 25% increase in peak gust speed from 40 - 50 to 50 - 60 knots. Ref: Insurance Australia Group, cited in Smith, M.H., “Assessing Climate Change Risk and Opportunities for Investors: Property and Construction Sector”, p.7 124
Some changes in likelihood or consequences from climate change 650% increase in building damage from 25% increase in peak gust speed from 40 - 50 to 50 - 60 knots. % Increase in building damage versus peak gust speed Paul Mahony 2013 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 650 100 40 - 50 knots 50 - 60 knots Ref: Insurance Australia Group, cited in Smith, M.H., “Assessing Climate Change Risk and Opportunities for Investors: Property and Construction Sector”, p.7 125
Some changes in likelihood or consequences from climate change Another example: “Yarra bursts banks as floods hit Melbourne”, The Age, 14 Jan 2011 The total precipitable water in the atmosphere in Melbourne on 13 Jan was 65.0 mm, 20% above the previous record of 54.5 mm Paul Mahony 2013 Karoly, Prof. David, School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, “The recent extreme weather in eastern Australia: A sign of climate change or the response to La Niña?”, 23rd April, 2011 at Firbank Grammar, Brighton 126
Paul Mahony 2013 Some changes in likelihood or consequences from climate change Ref: ANU/IGCC, “Assessing Climate Change Risks and Opportunities for Investors: Property and Construction” Australian Climate Commission, Apr 2013, “The Critical Decade: Extreme Weather”, p. 56 127
More comments on likelihood or consequences from climate change Paul Mahony 2013 Modelling estimates 20% increase in hail storm frequency by 2050 for Sydney region. Australia’s costliest storm: Hail damage, Sydney, 14 April, 1999. In one hour, damage of $4.3 billion (2011 dollars). ANU/IGCC, “Assessing Climate Change Risks and Opportunities for Investors: Property and Construction” Australian Climate Commission, Apr 2013, “The Critical Decade: Extreme Weather”, p. 56; Image: Car hit by Hail © Robert Ruggiero | Dreamstime.com 128
More comments on likelihood or consequences from climate change IAG Insurance Australia: We could see a doubling of Paul Mahony 2013 hailstorms with hailstones greater than 10 centimetres in diameter in the greater Sydney region over the next 50 years. Submission to 2013 Senate inquiry into preparedness for extreme weather events Hannam, P. “Costs soar for reinsurers”, Sydney Morning Herald, 18 Feb, 2013, http://www.smh.com.au/business/costs-soar-for-reinsurers20130217-2el7q.html 129
More comments on likelihood or consequences from climate change “The climate dice are now loaded to a degree that the perceptive person (old enough to remember the climate of 1951-1980) should be able to recognize the existence of climate change.” Paul Mahony 2013 Dr James Hansen, cited in Freedman, A. “NASA scientist Hansen warns “climate dice” already loaded for more extreme weather”, Washington Post, 17 Nov 2011 130
Some benefits of meaningful action
The benefits of meaningful action Paul Mahony 2013 Mean benefit to cost ratio of proactive climate change adaptation measures estimated at 60:1 for Construction and Property sector. Parry, M. et al “Assessing the costs of adaptation to climate change: A review of UNFCCC and other recent estimates”, Imperial College, Grantham Institute for Climate Change, UK, cited in ANU/IGCC “Assessing Climate Change Risks and Opportunities for Investors: Property and Construction Sector”, p. 10 132
The benefits of meaningful action Paul Mahony 2013 “When it comes to climate change we have the option to choose our desired combination of mitigation, adaptation, and suffering . . . climate change consequences from carbon emissions are already costing our society hundreds of billions of dollars every year. Research by the German Institute for Economic Research and Watkiss et al. 2005 have concluded that choosing mitigation above adaption would save us tens of trillions of dollars.” Skeptical Science, “Exxon-Mobil CEO Downplays the Global Warming Threat“, 13th July, 2012, http://www.skepticalscience.com/exxonmobi-ceo-denies-climate-threat.html citing German Institute for Economic Research and Watkiss et al. 2005 133
Implications for certain industries
Some Impacts by Industry – Property & Construction $159 billion worth of Australian buildings vulnerable to sea level rise, incl. 8,000 commercial, 6,000 industrial and 274,000 residential. Modelling indicates Category 5 cyclone striking Cairns = $8 billion in property damage and business interruption. Paul Mahony 2013 Australian Industry Group-Housing Industry Association’s Performance of Construction index at 35.6 in Mar 2012 due to rain delays from spring 2010 to 2012, adding to construction costs. (A figure below 50 = contraction.) Jan 2007 bushfires reduced Victoria’s power supply by one-third, cutting electricity to 200,000 homes and commercial properties. ANU/IGCC, “Assessing Climate Change Risks and Opportunities for Investors: Property and Construction” 135
Some Impacts by Industry – Mining Cyclone Yasi and flood in 2011 shut down 85% of Qld coal mines, costing $2.5 billion. Open coal mine fire at Hazelwood power station in Victoria from bushfire in 2006. 2 km long and weeks to control. Paul Mahony 2013 Heat stress long recognised as an issues for the mining industry. No. 1 weather-related cause of death in the US and responsible for more than 35,000 deaths in Europe in heatwave of 2003. Extreme rain and flooding can cause tailing dams to fail, with resultant legal liabilities. ANU/IGCC, “Assessing Climate Change Risks and Opportunities for Investors: Mining and Minerals Processing”; Image: mining helmet with lamp vector illustration © Miguel angel Salinas salinas | Dreamstime.com 136
Some Impacts by Industry – Oil & Gas Storm surge from Hurricane Katrina closed oil production in Gulf of Mexico for six months, cutting annual US oil production by 20%. Up to 50% of Australia’s refineries are on the coast not far above sea level. Gorgon LNG project off WA severely impacted by cyclones and other weather events, contributing to construction cost blow-outs of US$15 billion. Paul Mahony 2013 Coal seam gas industry will require 7,600 gigalitres of groundwater over next two decades = one-third of annual flow from Murray-Darling river system. ANU/IGCC, “Assessing Climate Change Risks and Opportunities for Investors: Oil and Gas”; Image: Oil and gas industry - refinery at 137 twilight - factory – petroche © Tomas1111 | Dreamstime.com
Some Impacts by Industry – Oil & Gas Storm surge from Hurricane Katrina closed oil production in Gulf of Mexico for six months, cutting annual US oil production by 20%. Up to 50% of Australia’s refineries are on the coast not far above sea level. Gorgon LNG project off WA severely impacted by cyclones and other weather events, contributing to construction cost blow-outs of US$15 billion. Paul Mahony 2013 Coal seam gas industry will require 7,600 gigalitres of groundwater over next two decades = one-third of annual flow from Murray-Darling river system. There’s more than a little irony in all this. ANU/IGCC, “Assessing Climate Change Risks and Opportunities for Investors: Oil and Gas”; Image: Oil and gas industry - refinery at 138 twilight - factory – petroche © Tomas1111 | Dreamstime.com
Some Impacts by Industry – Utilities Increased risk of shutdowns at coal, natural gas and nuclear power plants due to decreased water availability affecting cooling at thermoelectric power plants. Paul Mahony 2013 Higher risks to energy infrastructure along coasts due to sea level rise, increasing intensity of storms, higher storm surge and flooding. Power lines, transformers and electricity distribution systems face increasing risks of damage from hurricanes, storms and wildfires that are growing more frequent and intense. April Saylor, US Dept of Energy, “Climate Change: Effects on Our Energy”, 11 July 2013, http://energy.gov/articles/climate-change-effectsour-energy#all 139 Note: Some map locations are approximate.
Can we rely on planning regulators?
Can we rely on planning regulators? “There is a growing recognition of how inadequate current regulatory frameworks are to protect company assets and operations from more intense extreme weather events” “State governments and local councils . . . Differ considerably in their approach to climate change risk for new and existing construction and property projects.” “Even after the Black Saturday bushfires, there is no consistent approach to bushfire risk reduction in building codes across Australia.” Paul Mahony 2013 “Australia lacks a cohesive national coastal planning framework.” ANU/Investor Group on Climate Change, “Assessing Climate Change Risks and Opportunities for Investors: Property and Construction” Australian Climate Commission, Apr 2013, “The Critical Decade: Extreme Weather”, p. 10 Also http://www.igcc.org.au/about Image: Dog Rescue © 1000words | Dreamstime.com 141
Can we rely on planning regulators? “There is a growing recognition of how inadequate current regulatory frameworks are to protect company assets and operations from more intense extreme weather events” e, a hang e imate C on C l ing on th e p uss “State stor Grou local councils . . . Differ e governments andestors foc stments. Th y Inv and inv nv e ission b considerablyealtheir approach tof climate change risk New Z in ncial value o i er comm ort and rom rep stralianfor new and e fina construction und propertyent F u h existing tal funds and has on t tion of A to a estm e collabor t climate changprojects.” stors, with thers in the inv e s. ional inv rillion, and o t tha estment stitut impac on inv $1 t sents in ximately after the Blackte changebushfires, there is no pre group re nt of appro “Even pact of clima Saturday me the im ted in consistent approach to bushfire risk reduction in manage eres building codes across Australia.” unity int comm Paul Mahony 2013 “Australia lacks a cohesive national coastal planning framework.” ANU/Investor Group on Climate Change, “Assessing Climate Change Risks and Opportunities for Investors: Property and Construction” Australian Climate Commission, Apr 2013, “The Critical Decade: Extreme Weather”, p. 10 Also http://www.igcc.org.au/about; Image: Dog Rescue © 1000words | Dreamstime.com 142
Can we rely on planning regulators? “We shouldn't regard this [Brisbane January 2011 flood] as freakish,” said Professor Ed Blakely, who ran the recovery of New Orleans after hurricane Katrina and was involved in New York's after 9/11. “We should assume they are going to occur because of climate change. They are becoming increasingly frequent and far more devastating.” Paul Mahony 2013 He warned it was also time to examine the need for Queenslanders to ''retreat from the coast'' to escape rising sea levels. ''I warned people in Brisbane before hurricane Katrina that this could happen. I had all the CSIRO data that showed a flood that looked very much like the flood that happened. They scoffed.'' Karen Kissane, “Disaster expert urges a retreat from the coast”, The Age, 15 January 2011: http://www.theage.com.au/national/disasterexpert-urges-a-retreat-from-the-coast-20110114-19rcg.html; Image: Dog Rescue © 1000words | Dreamstime.com 143
Can we rely on planning regulators? Paul Mahony 2013 “Waterfront communities from Southbank to the Mornington Peninsula face a damage bill of more than $1 billion from severe storms and rising sea levels over the next 90 years, according to a confidential climate change report.” Cameron Houston, “Climate Change Bill of $1b for suburbs”, The Age, 21 Oct 2012 http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/climate-change-bill-of-1bfor-suburbs-20121020-27yli.html; Image: Dog Rescue © 1000words | Dreamstime.com 144
Can we rely on planning regulators? “Waterfront communities from Southbank to the Mornington Peninsula face a damage bill of more than $1 billion from severe storms and rising sea levels over the next 90 years, according to a confidential climate change report.” Paul Mahony 2013 90 years or sooner? Remember actual Arctic sea ice loss vs projected, and the impact on Greenland. 145 Cameron Houston, “Climate Change Bill of $1b for suburbs”, The Age, 21 Oct 2012 http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/climate-change-bill-of-1bfor-suburbs-20121020-27yli.html; Image: Dog Rescue © 1000words | Dreamstime.com
Can we rely on planning regulators? The Age newspaper reported that the Victorian state government would “wind back rules making new property developments in seaside towns plan for sea-level rises caused by climate change, arguing they have hampered rural growth.” “The changes [would] require 20 centimetres of sea-level rise by 2040 to be considered in new urban development in coastal towns such as Lakes Entrance, Port Lonsdale and Port Fairy.” Paul Mahony 2013 Regulators and their insurers need to consider the legal liability risk. Tom Arup, “State eases sea level regulations”, The Age, 6 June 2012, http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/state-eases-sea-level-regulations20120605-1zu9i.html; Image: Dog Rescue © 1000words | Dreamstime.com 146
Some insurance industry participants are unconvinced of increased likelihood and frequency of extreme events, but members of the former Australian Climate Commission and others have a different view.
What are insurers saying? QBE Chair, Belinda Hutchinson, 19 April, 2011 Paul Mahony 2013 Climate change has nothing to do with the recent string of natural disasters that have cost insurance companies more than $3.6 billion. “QBE blames La Nina for disasters”, Gareth Hutchens, Sydney Morning Herald, 20/04/11, http://www.smh.com.au/business/qbe-blames148 la-nina-for-disasters-20110419-1dng1.html
What are insurers saying? QBE Chair, Belinda Hutchinson, 19 April, 2011 Climate change has nothing to do with the recent string of natural disasters that have cost insurance companies more than $3.6 billion. Paul Mahony 2013 "The catastrophe events that have taken place this year, the floods in Queensland, the fires, have nothing to do with climate change. They are part of Australia's really long history of floods, fires, droughts.” “QBE blames La Nina for disasters”, Gareth Hutchens, Sydney Morning Herald, 20/04/11, http://www.smh.com.au/business/qbe-blames149 la-nina-for-disasters-20110419-1dng1.html
What are insurers saying? Insurance Council of Australia, January 2013 “. . . the scale and extent of extreme weather events in Australia . . . are not increasing and are not unprecedented.” Paul Mahony 2013 “Australia has a long record of fire, floods, storms and cyclones.” Argues that we should focus on exposure and vulnerability, rather than hazard (frequency and intensity) Insurance Council of Australia, Submission to Senate Standing Committee on Environment and Communications: Recent trends in and preparedness for extreme weather events, dated 14 Jan 2012 but seems to be 14 Jan 2013 150
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What are insurers saying? Insurance Council of Australia, Jan 2013 Paul Mahony 2013 Insurance losses due to extreme weather events over last 40yrs (Source: Risk Frontiers Analysis of ICA Data) Insurance Council of Australia, Submission to Senate Standing Committee on Environment and Communications: Recent trends in and preparedness for extreme weather events, dated 14 Jan 2012 but seems to be 14 Jan 2013 156
What are insurers saying? Insurance Council of Australia, Jan 2013 Paul Mahony 2013 Insurance losses due to extreme weather events over last 40yrs Nomalised (Source: Risk Frontiers Analysis of ICA Data) Normalised for changes: in the number of dwellings in a location; the average size and value of dwellings; building age; and Building Code improvements. Insurance Council of Australia, Submission to Senate Standing Committee on Environment and Communications: Recent trends in and 157 preparedness for extreme weather events
What are insurers saying? Insurance Council of Australia, Jan 2013 Insurance losses due to extreme weather events over last 40yrs Nomalised (Source: Risk Frontiers Analysis of ICA Data) nce Paul Mahony 2013 e t experi s , can pa ck lid on is va ate feedba ati ) ormalis (a) clim ending; and (b his n t view of: Even if l tr upon in ading to onentia d le p be relie sing ex entially au ot nisms c pping points p mecha i hange t c s? climate change p rupt ste ab Normalised for changes: in the number of dwellings in a location; the average size and value of dwellings; building age; and Building Code improvements. Insurance Council of Australia, Submission to Senate Standing Committee on Environment and Communications: Recent trends in and 158 preparedness for extreme weather events
What are insurers saying? Insurance Council of Australia, Jan 2013 The increasing cost of insured losses over time is explained predominantly by growth in the number of insured buildings exposed and the nature of those buildings, rather than increased frequency or intensity of extreme events. [Munich Re has a different view in relation to storm events. See subsequent slides.] Paul Mahony 2013 Argues that the insurance mechanism must be maintained as a price signal to encourage adaptive behaviour. [Compare with Munich Re.] Insurance Council of Australia, Submission to Senate Standing Committee on Environment and Communications: Recent trends in and 159 preparedness for extreme weather events
What are insurers saying? Insurance Council of Australia in relation to Climate Commission’s “The Critical Decade: Extreme Weather” Report (Insurance News, 15 April, 2013) Paul Mahony 2013 • ICA has shown “polite interest” only. • Insurers look just one or two years ahead. • Link between climate change and extreme weather needs to be established with “full certainty”. • The data is insufficient at this point for insurers to act on it. • No insurer covers gradual change in sea level or other anticipated impacts of global warming. Insurance News, “Climate change: a catalyst for extreme weather”, 15 April 2013 160
What are insurers saying? Insurance Council of Australia in relation to Climate Commission’s “The Critical Decade: Extreme Weather” Report (Insurance News, 15 April, 2013) ahead? • ICA has shown “polite interest” ears or two y only. e • Insurers k just on or two years ahead. look just one oo Why lbetween climate change and extreme weather needs • Link Paul Mahony 2013 to be established with “full certainty”. • The data is insufficient at this point for insurers to act on it. • No insurer covers gradual change in sea level or other anticipated impacts of global warming. Insurance News, “Climate change: a catalyst for extreme weather”, 15 April 2013 161
What are insurers saying? Insurance Council of Australia in relation to Climate Commission’s “The Critical Decade: Extreme Weather” Report (Insurance News, 15 April, 2013) ahead? • ICA has shown “polite interest” ears or two y only. e • Insurers k just on or two years ahead. look just one oo Why lbetween climate change and extreme weather needs • Link to be established with “full certainty”. • The data is insufficient at this point for insurers !to act on it. now ning level or other • No insurer covers gradual changee sea e happ in r anticipated impacts ts global warming. venof a the e Paul Mahony 2013 sides, Be Insurance News, “Climate change: a catalyst for extreme weather”, 15 April 2013 162
What are insurers saying? Paul Mahony 2013 Insurance Council of Australia in relation to Climate Commission’s “The Critical Decade: Extreme on s based Weather” Report (Insurance News, 15usines 2013) April, ab n tainty” i r r “full ce fo e n shown “polite interest” only. hhaseed • ICA Wh y t s? •probabilitilook just one or two years ahead. Insurers e • Link between climate change and extreme weather needs to be established with “full certainty”. • The data is insufficient at this point for insurers to act on it. • No insurer covers gradual change in sea level or other anticipated impacts of global warming. Insurance News, “Climate change: a catalyst for extreme weather”, 15 April 2013 163
What are insurers saying? Paul Mahony 2013 Insurance Council of Australia in relation to Climate Commission’s “The Critical Decade: Extreme or other Weather” Report (Insurance News, 15 April,level sea 2013) in change al . s gradu er r cov“polite interest”arming w only. re •oICA ihas shown s of global no nsu t S d impac one or two years ahead. te • Insurers look just anticipa e, • Link between climate change and extremetorm damag weather needs s , flood, to be established withe, bucertainty”. er”! “full shfire g orm sur at Angry Summ s • The datat is tinsufficiente “ this point for insurers to act on it. t abou r th Wha insurer membegradual change in sea level or other • Noetc? Re covers hail, anticipated impacts of global warming. Insurance News, “Climate change: a catalyst for extreme weather”, 15 April 2013 164
What are insurers and others saying? Paul Mahony 2013 Insurance Council of Australia in relation to Climateier with earl t onsisten Commission’s “The Critical Decade: Extremeat reflects a ec onses ar rspective th Weather” system resp Report (Insurance News, 15 April, 2013) a nonpe s rance conomy , wherea su le In tem ica arth sys nal polit the E ern tio intICAahas shownding ofinterest” d. • ar understan “polite require only. is line tanding or two years ahead. • Insurers ers just one look ear und lin • Link between climate change and extreme weather needs to be established with “full certainty”. • The data is insufficient at this point for insurers to act on it. • No insurer covers gradual change in sea level or other anticipated impacts of global warming. Insurance News, “Climate change: a catalyst for extreme weather”, 15 April 2013 Liam Phelan, Macquarie University, “The relationship between anthropogenic climate change and the insurance system: Imperatives, options and reflections on theory”, 4 Aug 2010 (PhD Thesis) 165
What are insurers and others saying? Paul Mahony 2013 Insurance Council of Australia in relation to Climateier with earl t onsisten Commission’s “The Critical Decade: Extremeat reflects a ec onses ar rspective th Weather” system resp Report (Insurance News, 15 April, 2013) a nonpe s rance conomy , wherea su le In tem ica arth sys nal polit the E ern tio intICAahas shownding ofinterest” d. • ar understan “polite require only. is line tanding or two years ahead. • Insurers ers just one look e ear und insuranc e lin • Link between climate change e basis of th weatherial risk and extreme nanc needs th rminescertainty”.spread fi n to be establishedde “full pool and change u withy to t Climate • The data. ishinsufficient at babipoint .for insurers to act on it. this lities e capaci m, i.e t ro syste insurer covers wn p change in sea level or other • No basis of kno gradual the onanticipated impacts of global warming. Insurance News, “Climate change: a catalyst for extreme weather”, 15 April 2013 Liam Phelan, Macquarie University, “The relationship between anthropogenic climate change and the insurance system: Imperatives, options and reflections on theory”, 4 Aug 2010 (PhD Thesis) 166
Paul Mahony 2013 What are insurers and others saying? Insurance Council of Australia in relation to Climateier with earl t onsisten Commission’s “The Critical Decade: Extremeat reflects a ec onses ar rspective th Weather” system resp Report (Insurance News, 15 April, 2013) a nonpe s rance conomy , wherea su le In tem ica arth sys nal polit the E ern tio intICAahas shownding ofinterest” d. • ar understan “polite require only. is line tanding or two years ahead. • Insurers ers just one look e ear und insuranc e lin • Link between climate change e basis of th weatherial risk and extreme nanc needs th rminescertainty”.spread fi n to be establishedde “full pool and change u withy to t Climate • The data. ishinsufficient at babipoint .for insurers to act on it. this lities e capaci m, i.e t ro syste insurer covers wn p change in sea level or other • No basis of kno gradual f the menon o onanticipated impacts of global warming. heno tp coheren y a globall s change i Climate gnitude. a dented me University unprece , Macquari elan Liam Ph News, “Climate change: a catalyst for extreme weather”, 15 April 2013 Insurance Liam Phelan, Macquarie University, “The relationship between anthropogenic climate change and the insurance system: Imperatives, options and reflections on theory”, 4 Aug 2010 (PhD Thesis) 167
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What are insurers and others saying? Paul Mahony 2013 rald rning He Insurance Council of Australia in e Sydney Mo Climate relation to versity. n in Th la Uni iam Phe Decade: Extreme wcastle Commission’sfrom L Criticaldies at Ne “The stu ments nmental rther com Reporto(Insurance News, 15 April, 2013) Fu Weather”r in envir ture ding while lec ks - inclu r ris r weathe nd fo uranceonly.ely affordable, a ins • ICA has shown n mean interest” to bar er ca“polite rdable ge for weath e an •. climate chlook ijustfroneaor two able . . .ahead. c ide to future Insurers - sh fts om ffo ur years insuran “. . u ns nts reliable gweather ineeds ome uni eme eve t bec re ex•r Link between climate change andaextreme including ts the risks gh past events a th ( ventually established with “full lcertainty”. Ear is familiar to s the ou e to be tes as th ng a ate pera true as o tate, one that ed ains sactclim it. risks o datahis insufficient atable s • The ce. T is rem rrently st this pointtory. insurers au veon for Human-c to n s u ati ly experie s in its c gradual uman hi in rhaps comparothers tay covers of h change, pesea level or rhap l No ) s c•imateinsurer h the course rth pe ate of warming.ative - and hroug impactshofsglobal Ea t anticipated shifting t e t ltern humans s into an a ean tate change m rom its familiar s y, f .” suddenl nt - state fere ically dif rad Insurance News, “Climate change: a catalyst for extreme weather”, 15 April 2013 Liam Phelan, “Cuts in emissions are at a premium”, The Age, 25 Jan 2011, http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/society-andculture/cuts-in-emissions-are-at-a-premium-20110124-1a2ul.html 170
Findings of Senate Enquiry “Recent trends in and preparedness for extreme weather events”, August 2013 Paul Mahony 2013 Extreme weather events are likely to increase in frequency and will potentially intensify in the future as a result of climate change. Hannam, P., “Extreme weather likely to increase and intensify, report finds”, The Sydney Morning Herald, 7 Aug 2013, 171 http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/extreme-weather-likely-to-increase-and-intensify-report-finds-20130807-2rggq.html
Standard Flood Definition - Australia “The covering of normally dry land by water that has escaped or been released from the normal confines of: any lake, or any river, creek or other natural watercourse, whether or not altered or modified; or any reservoir, canal, or dam.” Applies to: home building and home contents; small business; and strata title insurance contracts. Transition period of two years from 18th June, 2012. Paul Mahony 2013 If insurers provide flood coverage, they are required to use the new definition. Press Release No. 030 (undated) from Minister for Financial Services & Superannuation, http://ministers.treasury.gov.au/DisplayDocs.aspx?doc=pressreleases/2012/030.htm&pageID=&min=brs&Year=2012&DocType=0 and Insurance News “Flood definition becomes law”, 18th June, 2012, http://insurancenews.com.au/local/flood-definition-becomes-law 172
Most American insurers are unprepared
Paul Mahony 2013 Few American insurers ready for climate change 174
Few American insurers ready for climate change Paul Mahony 2013 Climate risk survey of 184 American insurance companies in the Property and Casualty; Life and Annuity; and Health sectors conducted by insurance regulators in California, New York and Washington, and reported by sustainability advocacy group Ceres. “Insurer Climate Risk Disclosure Survey 2012”, Ceres, March 2013, http://www.ceres.org/resources/reports/naic-report/view The Age, 8 March 2013, “Few insurers prepared for climate change: Ceres”, http://www.theage.com.au/business/carbon-economy/few-insurersprepared-for-climate-change-ceres-20130308-2fpbw.html (From Bloomberg) 175 Mark A. Hoffman, “Insurance industry has made 'uneven' response to climate risks: Ceres”, Business Insurance, 7 March 2013, http://www.businessinsurance.com/article/20130307/NEWS04/130309871#full_story
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Risk management-insurance-and-the-climate-crisis

  • 1. Risk Management, Insurance and the Climate Crisis Paul Mahony, 1 December 2013 Images: M. Todesco, Cryospheric Processes Laboratory, City College New York City, http://cryocity.org/ and Image: Jhanz (Dreamstime.com
  • 2. Introduction This is an extended version of a presentation I gave as guest speaker to a group of Monash University students in the subject “Principles of Risk Transfer BFF5031” (Dept of Banking and Finance) on 31st August 2013. I have previously commented on likelihood and consequences in relation to climate change in various articles and presentations. I have used many of the slides in this presentation elsewhere, and have included them again for completeness. The material will soon be used for a more extensive discussion paper. An edited version is used for presentations due to time constraints. Paul Mahony 2013 For more information, please see terrastendo.net. Version 2, 3rd December, 2013: Inclusion of banner on Greenland moulin slide (# 54) Version 3, 5th December, 2013: Inclusion of slide on valuing our natural capital (# 192) Version 4, 11th February, 2013: Additional slide on hail (#129)
  • 3. Paul Mahony 2013 Some thoughts on climate-related risk management
  • 4. Some thoughts on climate-related risk management Paul Mahony 2013 “Perhaps the greatest flaw in the climate debate has been our inability, or refusal, to address risk and uncertainty realistically.”
  • 5. Some thoughts on climate-related risk management “Perhaps the greatest flaw in the climate debate has been our inability, or refusal, to address risk and uncertainty realistically.” Paul Mahony 2013 “Scientists are giving increasingly urgent warnings on the mounting evidence of human-induced warming and the need for rapid carbon emission reductions.”
  • 6. Some thoughts on climate-related risk management “Perhaps the greatest flaw in the climate debate has been our inability, or refusal, to address risk and uncertainty realistically.” “Scientists are giving increasingly urgent warnings on the mounting evidence of human-induced warming and the need for rapid carbon emission reductions.” Paul Mahony 2013 “Officialdom chooses to ignore these warnings, preferring policy based on ‘political realism’, shorthand for hoping the problem will go away.”
  • 7. Some thoughts on climate-related risk management “Perhaps the greatest flaw in the climate debate has been our inability, or refusal, to address risk and uncertainty realistically.” “Scientists are giving increasingly urgent warnings on the mounting evidence of human-induced warming and the need for rapid carbon emission reductions.” “Officialdom chooses to ignore these warnings, preferring policy based on ‘political realism’, shorthand for hoping the problem will go away.” Paul Mahony 2013 “Business, supposedly the experts on risk management, should take leadership, but have abrogated any responsibility, given that realistic action will require a fundamental redesign of the economic system, undermining established vested interests.”
  • 8. Some thoughts on climate-related risk management “Perhaps the greatest flaw in the climate debate has been our inability, or refusal, to address risk and uncertainty realistically.” “Scientists are giving increasingly urgent warnings on the mounting evidence of human-induced warming and the need for rapid carbon emission reductions.” “Officialdom chooses to ignore these warnings, preferring policy based on ‘political realism’, shorthand for hoping the problem will go away.” Paul Mahony 2013 “Business, supposedly the experts on risk management, should take leadership, but have abrogated any responsibility, given that realistic action will require a fundamental redesign of the economic system, undermining established vested interests.” “The result is that nobody is seriously addressing the strategic risks to which we are exposed.”
  • 9. Some thoughts on climate-related risk management “Perhaps the greatest flaw in the climate debate has been our inability, or refusal, to address risk and uncertainty realistically.” try “Scientists are giving increasingly urgent warnings onal indus the mounting 012warming andas and co rapid carbon emission evidencen Dunlop, 2 a of human-inducedional oil, g the need for I at reductions.” r intern Forme e. xecutiv to ignore these warnings, preferring policy based on e “Officialdom chooses ‘political realism’, shorthand for hoping the problem will go away.” Paul Mahony 2013 “Business, supposedly the experts on risk management, should take leadership, but have abrogated any responsibility, given that realistic action will require a fundamental redesign of the economic system, undermining established vested interests.” “The result is that nobody is seriously addressing the strategic risks to which we are exposed.”
  • 10. Some thoughts on climate-related risk management “Perhaps the greatest flaw in the climate debate has been our inability, or refusal, to address risk and uncertainty realistically.” try “Scientists are giving increasingly urgent warnings onal indus the mounting 012warming andas and co rapid carbon emission evidencen Dunlop, 2 a of human-inducedional oil, g the need for I at reductions.” r intern Forme e. xecutiv to ignore these warnings, preferring policy based on e “Officialdom chooses ‘political realism’, shorthand for hoping the problem will go away.” Paul Mahony 2013 l lian Coa te of ra he Aust lianshouldtu sti take air of t “Business, supposedly the experts on risk management, In ra Ch cluded he Aust given that realistic action t leadership, but n abrogated any responsibility, Roles i have n and CEO of will require a ciatio fundamental redesign of the economic system, undermining . sso A established vested interests.” rs irecto D ompany C “The result is that nobody is seriously addressing the strategic risks to which we are exposed.”
  • 11. Paul Mahony 2013 Michael E. Porter and Forest L. Reinhardt, Harvard Business School, 2007 Michael E. Porter and Forest L. Reinhardt, “Grist: A strategic approach to climate”, Harvard Business Review, Oct 2007
  • 12. Michael E. Porter and Forest L. Reinhardt, Harvard Business School, 2007 Paul Mahony 2013 “Companies that persist in treating climate change solely as a corporate social responsibility issue, rather than a business problem, will risk the greatest consequences.” Michael E. Porter and Forest L. Reinhardt, “Grist: A strategic approach to climate”, Harvard Business Review, Oct 2007
  • 13. Michael E. Porter and Forest L. Reinhardt, Harvard Business School, 2007 “Companies that persist in treating climate change solely as a corporate social responsibility issue, rather than a business problem, will risk the greatest consequences.” Paul Mahony 2013 “. . . The effects of climate on companies’ operations are now so tangible and certain that the issue is best addressed with the tools of the strategist, not the philanthropist.” Michael E. Porter and Forest L. Reinhardt, “Grist: A strategic approach to climate”, Harvard Business Review, Oct 2007
  • 15. Some quotes Paul Mahony 2013 “This generation has altered the composition of the atmosphere on a global scale through a steady increase in carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels.”
  • 16. Some quotes “This generation has altered the composition of the atmosphere on a global scale through a steady increase in carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels.” Paul Mahony 2013 President Lyndon Johnson President Lyndon Johnson, 1965 message to Congress, cited in The Science Show, ABC Radio National, 8 January, 2011, “Naomi Oreskes – Merchants of Doubt”. Seal of the President of the United States © Americanspirit | Dreamstime.com
  • 17. Some quotes “This generation has altered the composition of the atmosphere on a global scale through a steady increase in carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels.” Paul Mahony 2013 President Lyndon Johnson 1965 President Lyndon Johnson, 1965 message to Congress, cited in The Science Show, ABC Radio National, 8 January, 2011, “Naomi Oreskes – Merchants of Doubt”. Seal of the President of the United States © Americanspirit | Dreamstime.com
  • 18. Paul Mahony 2013 Some more quotes
  • 19. Some more quotes Paul Mahony 2013 “Not only is it real, it's here, and its effects are giving rise to a frighteningly new global phenomenon: the manmade natural disaster.”
  • 20. Some more quotes “Not only is it real, it's here, and its effects are giving rise to a frighteningly new global phenomenon: the manmade natural disaster.” Paul Mahony 2013 Barack Obama, 3 April 2006 Barack Obama, 3 April 2006, cited in Spratt, D, “Bridging the gap between science and politics”, Climate Action Summit, 9 April, 2011, http://www.climateactioncentre.org/sites/default/files/1104%20-recent-science.pdf Image: President Barack Obama © Kurniawan1972 | Dreamstime.com
  • 21. What are we doing to the planet?
  • 22. Paul Mahony 2013 Some developments in late 2011
  • 23. Some developments in late 2011 Paul Mahony 2013 Arctic sea ice Nov 2011: Summer sea ice second lowest on record. (2012 set a new low.)
  • 24. Some developments in late 2011 Arctic sea ice Paul Mahony 2013 Permafrost Nov 2011: Summer sea ice second lowest on record. (2012 set a new low.) Dec 2011: “Astonishing” and unprecedented releases of methane.
  • 25. Some developments in late 2011 Arctic sea ice Nov 2011: Summer sea ice second lowest on record. (2012 set a new low.) Dec 2011: “Astonishing” and unprecedented releases of methane. Global greenhouse gas emissions Paul Mahony 2013 Permafrost Nov 2011: 2010 highest percentage increase on record.
  • 26. Some developments in late 2011 Arctic sea ice Nov 2011: Summer sea ice second lowest on record. (2012 set a new low.) Permafrost Dec 2011: “Astonishing” and unprecedented releases of methane. Global greenhouse gas emissions Nov 2011: 2010 highest percentage increase on record. Paul Mahony 2013 International Energy Agency Nov 2011: The world is on the brink of irreversible climate change . . . in five years global warming will hit a point of no return after which it will be impossible to reverse the process.
  • 27. Paul Mahony 2013 Our warming planet 27
  • 28. Paul Mahony 2013 Our warming planet http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/videogallery/index.html?media_id=123437001 28
  • 29. Paul Mahony 2013 Our warming planet http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/videogallery/index.html?media_id=123437001 29
  • 30. Paul Mahony 2013 Our warming planet http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/videogallery/index.html?media_id=123437001 30
  • 31. Paul Mahony 2013 Our warming planet NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature Analysis, http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgibin/gistemp/do_nmap.py?year_last=2012&month_last=1&sat=4&sst=1&type=anoms&mean_gen=11&year1=2010&year2=2010&b ase1=1951&base2=1980&radius=1200&pol=reg 31
  • 32. Paul Mahony 2013 Our warming planet Skeptical Science http://skepticalscience.com/solar-activity-sunspots-global-warming.htm 32
  • 33. Our warming planet 300 1750 2,000 years Paul Mahony 2013 Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 Source: Adapted from Australian Academy of Science “The Science of Climate Change: 33 Questions and Answers”, Fig. 4.1, p. 10 0
  • 34. Our warming planet 391 ppm as at Sep 2012 2000 380 300 1750 2,000 years Paul Mahony 2013 Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 Source: Adapted from Australian Academy of Science “The Science of Climate Change: 34 Questions and Answers”, Fig. 4.1, p. 10 0
  • 35. The Arctic “Big Melt” Paul Mahony 2013 1984 NASA Earth Observatory, http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=79256&src=eorss-iotd 35
  • 36. The Arctic “Big Melt” Paul Mahony 2013 2012 NASA Earth Observatory, http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=79256&src=eorss-iotd 36
  • 37. Paul Mahony 2013 The Arctic “Big Melt” National Snow & Ice Data Center, A better year for the cryosphere, http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2013/10/a-better-year-for-the-cryosphere/
  • 38. Paul Mahony 2013 The Arctic “Big Melt” National Snow & Ice Data Center, A better year for the cryosphere, http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2013/10/a-better-year-for-the-cryosphere/
  • 39. Paul Mahony 2013 The Arctic “Big Melt” National Snow & Ice Data Center, A better year for the cryosphere, http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2013/10/a-better-year-for-the-cryosphere/
  • 40. Paul Mahony 2013 The Arctic “Big Melt” National Snow & Ice Data Center, A better year for the cryosphere, http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2013/10/a-better-year-for-the-cryosphere/
  • 41. Paul Mahony 2013 The Arctic “Big Melt” National Snow & Ice Data Center, A better year for the cryosphere, http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2013/10/a-better-year-for-the-cryosphere/
  • 42. The Arctic “Big Melt” Paul Mahony 2013 Even with the 2013 increase, the 1981 to 2010 average was 22% higher than this year’s extent. National Snow & Ice Data Center, A better year for the cryosphere, http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2013/10/a-better-year-for-the-cryosphere/
  • 43. Paul Mahony 2013 The Arctic “Big Melt” – Projected vs Actual Arctic Summer Sea Ice Cited in Romm, J. “An Illustrated Guide to the Science of Global Warming Impacts: How We Know Inaction Is the Gravest Threat Humanity Faces”, Climate Progress, 14 Oct, 2012 http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/10/14/1009121/science-of-global-warming-impacts-guide/. Originally from http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2012/09/models-are-improving-but-can-they-catch-up.html, adapted from http://climatecrocks.com/2011/09/09/graph-of-theday-arctic-ice-melt-how-much-faster-than-predicted/ which in turn based on Stroeve et al. http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2007GL029703.shtml 43
  • 44. The Arctic “Big Melt” 16.9 Volume (area and thickness) Paul Mahony 2013 3.6 Chart by L. Hamilton, based on Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) data from the Polar Science Center http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/, cited in Romm, J, “Experts Warn Of ‘Near Ice-Free Arctic In Summer’ In A Decade”, 6 September, 2012, The Energy Collective, http://theenergycollective.com/josephromm/110216/death-spiral-watch-experts-warn-near-ice-free-arctic-summer-decade-if-volumetrend 44
  • 45. Paul Mahony 2013 The Arctic “Big Melt” – Exponential Trending From Brook, B. “Depressing climate-related trends – but who gets it?”, 6 Nov 2011 http://bravenewclimate.com/2011/11/06/depressing-climate-trends/ based on Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS, Zhang and Rothrock, 2003) graphs from the Polar Science Center of the Applied Physics Laboratory at the University of 45 Washington, http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/, reported in http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2011/10/piomas-september-2011-volume-record-lower-still.html
  • 46. The Arctic “Big Melt” “The extra open water already created by the retreating ice allows bigger waves to be generated by storms, which are sweeping away the surviving ice. It is truly the case that it will be all gone by 2015. The consequences are enormous and represent a huge boost to global warming.” Paul Mahony 2013 Peter Wadhams, professor of ocean physics at Cambridge University David Spratt, “Big call: Cambridge prof. predicts Arctic summer sea ice ‘all gone by 2015’”, 30 Aug 2012, http://www.climatecodered.org/2012/08/big-call-cambridge-prof-predicts-arctic.html 46
  • 47. What are the implications for the Greenland ice sheet?
  • 48. The Arctic “Big Melt” Paul Mahony 2013 The danger is that an ice-free state in the Arctic summer will kick the climate system into run-on warming and create an aberrant new climate state many, many degrees hotter. 48
  • 49. The Arctic “Big Melt” The danger is that an ice-free state in the Arctic summer will kick the climate system into run-on warming and create an aberrant new climate state many, many degrees hotter. Paul Mahony 2013 The Arctic sea-ice is the first domino and it is falling fast. 49
  • 50. The Arctic “Big Melt” The danger is that an ice-free state in the Arctic summer will kick the climate system into run-on warming and create an aberrant new climate state many, many degrees hotter. The Arctic sea-ice is the first domino and it is falling fast. Those dominoes include the Greenland ice sheet. Paul Mahony 2013 Spratt, D and Lawson, D, “Bubbling our way to the Apocalypse”, Rolling Stone, November 2008, pp. 53-55 50
  • 51. The Arctic “Big Melt” The danger is that an ice-free state in the Arctic summer will kick the climate system into run-on warming and create an aberrant new climate state many, many degrees hotter. The Arctic sea-ice is the first domino and it is falling fast. Those dominoes include the Greenland ice sheet. Spratt, D and Lawson, D, “Bubbling our way to the Apocalypse”, Rolling Stone, November 2008, pp. 53-55 Paul Mahony 2013 “It is difficult to imagine how the Greenland ice sheet could survive if Arctic sea ice is lost entirely in the warm season.” Hansen, J., “Storms of my granchildren”, p. 164 51
  • 52. Paul Mahony 2013 Greenland Ice Sheet Scale comparison of Greenland (the largest island) and Australia (the smallest continent) by Joanna Serah, 26 Oct 2011, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Australia-Greenland_Overlay.png 52
  • 53. Paul Mahony 2013 Greenland Ice Sheet M. Todesco, Cryospheric Processes Laboratory, City College New York City, http://cryocity.org/ 53
  • 54. Greenland Ice Sheet Paul Mahony 2013 pear ch disap g , w hi t t wo re formin sa more tha c e of t, lake gh ice shee , a distan cascading throu tom land reen e bot ater On the G ns (craters) to th es. The w ase, as n mouli n many c d lubricates the b sibly )i do w an reds, pos .25 miles s (1 hund sheet kilometre s the ice are many warm There moulins melting. t he rther et. ting to fu ns on the ice she sea contribu ctions of f mouli s, o s pr oj e thousand he IPCC’ or i n t ounted f ot acc cess is n This pro . level rise M. Todesco, Cryospheric Processes Laboratory, City College New York City, http://cryocity.org/ 54
  • 55. Paul Mahony 2013 Greenland Ice Sheet NOAA Climate Services, http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/article/2011/greenland-ice-sheet-getting-darker-2 55
  • 56. Greenland Ice Sheet Paul Mahony 2013 the anges in e to ch eas is du as its ing ar nowpack non-melt the s in the rystals in rkening ice c Th e da ize of the ds shape an es. rature ris tempe NOAA Climate Services, http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/article/2011/greenland-ice-sheet-getting-darker-2 56
  • 57. Paul Mahony 2013 Greenland Ice Sheet NOAA Climate Services, http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/article/2011/greenland-ice-sheet-getting-darker-2
  • 59. Paul Mahony 2013 The Arctic “Big Melt” http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/greenland-melt.html "Greenland Melting Breaks Record Four Weeks Before Season's End", ScienceDaily, 15 August, 2012, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/08/120815121318.htm 59
  • 60. Paul Mahony 2013 The Arctic “Big Melt” http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/greenland-melt.html "Greenland Melting Breaks Record Four Weeks Before Season's End", ScienceDaily, 15 August, 2012, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/08/120815121318.htm 60
  • 61. The Arctic “Big Melt” Paul Mahony 2013 g at thawin one underg lly t had e shee ad dramatica ad the ic ce h ng h ent of perc e melti e sheet surfa ut 40 ys, th 12 abo just a few da ent of the ic 8, 20 . In perc n July O surface stimated 97 the or near ed and an e rat accele y July 12. b thawed http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/greenland-melt.html "Greenland Melting Breaks Record Four Weeks Before Season's End", ScienceDaily, 15 August, 2012, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/08/120815121318.htm 61
  • 62. Paul Mahony 2013 The Arctic “Big Melt” g at thawin one underg lly t had e shee ad dramatica ad the ic ce h ng h ent of perc e melti e sheet surfa ut 40 ys, th 12 abo just a few da ent of the ic 8, 20 . In perc n July O surface stimated 97 the or near ed and an e rat way accele y July 12. will fall atellite lting es awed b rall me th elt sinc 's ove year est m st, this e great ugu r - th ity me in A a goliath yea t to co atory, C bor at's e ye sses La ith mor d records. Th "W Proce the ol 79." pheric ryos in 19 above ocity C began ng Cry recordi co Tedesco, ar Prof. M ew York N College http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/greenland-melt.html "Greenland Melting Breaks Record Four Weeks Before Season's End", ScienceDaily, 15 August, 2012, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/08/120815121318.htm 62
  • 64. Paul Mahony 2013 Antarctic Warming NASA Earth Observatory, Antarctic Warming Trends, 23 Jan 2009, http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=36736 64
  • 65. Antarctic Warming Paul Mahony 2013 Between November 9–11, 2013, a large iceberg finally separated from the calving front of Antarctica’s Pine Island Glacier . . . Named B-31 by the U.S. National Ice Center, the new iceberg is estimated to be 35 kilometers by 20 kilometers (21 by 12 miles), roughly the size of Singapore. NASA Earth Observatory, Major Iceberg Cracks off Pine Island Glacier, http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=82392 65
  • 66. Paul Mahony 2013 All Ice Sheets and Glaciers NSIDC, “The Contribution of the Cryosphere to Changes in Sea Level”, http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/sotc/sea_level.html 66
  • 67. Paul Mahony 2013 All Ice Sheets and Glaciers NSIDC, “The Contribution of the Cryosphere to Changes in Sea Level”, http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/sotc/sea_level.html 67
  • 68. Global sea level rise Projections to 2100: IPCC: Up to 1 metre (but higher values cannot be excluded) Vermeer and Rahmstorf: nearly 2 metres Hansen: Likely several metres (see next slide) if we continue with “business as usual”, depending on impact of negative (diminishing) feedbacks. Impacts: Experienced through “high sea-level events” . Paul Mahony 2013 A combination of sea-level rise, high tide and storm surge. Increased likelihood with 0.5 of a metre: 100 to 1,000 fold increase Steffen, W, “The Critical Decade: Climate Science, risks and responses”, Climate Commission, Fig. 8, p. 12 http://climatecommission.gov.au/topics/the-critical-decade/ Spratt, D, “NASA climate chief demolishes denialist claims on sea levels”, 26 Oct 2012, http://www.climatecodered.org/2012/10/nasa-climatechief-demolishes-denialist.html and Hansen, J & Sato, M “Update of Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Loss: Exponential?”, 26 Dec 2012
  • 69. Global sea level rise What about IPCC’s projection of less than 1 metre? Only allows for certain short feedback mechanisms, e.g. changes in: • water vapour • clouds • sea ice Does not allow for slow feedbacks, e.g.: • ice sheet dynamics; • changes in vegetation cover; Paul Mahony 2013 • permafrost melting; and • carbon-cycle feedbacks. Spratt, D and Sutton, P, “Climate Code Red: The case for emergency action”, Scribe, 2008, p. 47
  • 70. Global sea level rise Tim Flannery, Australian Climate Change Commissioner and former Australian of the Year: IPCC is “painfully conservative” because it Paul Mahony 2013 “works by consensus and includes government representatives from the United States, China and Saudi Arabia, all of whom must assent to every word of every finding”. Spratt, D, “Global Warming – No more business as usual: This is an emergency!”, Environmental Activists’ Conference 2008: Climate Emergency – No More Business as Usual, 10 October, 2008, reproduced in Links International Journal of Socialist Renewal, http://links.org.au/node/683 (Accessed 4 February 2012) 70
  • 71. Paul Mahony 2013 Permafrost Connor, S, “Vast methane 'plumes' seen in Arctic ocean as sea ice retreats”, The Independent, 13 December, 2011, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/vast-methane-plumes-seen-in-arctic-ocean-as-sea-ice-retreats71 6276278.html (Accessed 4 February 2012)
  • 72. Permafrost • Dramatic and unprecedented plumes of methane . . . have been seen bubbling to the surface of the Arctic Ocean by scientists undertaking an extensive survey of the region. Paul Mahony 2013 • The scale and volume of the methane release has astonished the head of the Russian research team who has been surveying the seabed of the east Siberian Arctic Shelf off northern Russia for nearly 20 years. • Igor Semiletov of the International Arctic Research Centre at the University of Alaska Fairbanks . . . said that he has never before witnessed the scale and force has never before witnessed the scale and force of the methane being released from beneath the Arctic seabed. Connor, S, “Vast methane 'plumes' seen in Arctic ocean as sea ice retreats”, The Independent, 13 December, 2011, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/vast-methane-plumes-seen-in-arctic-ocean-as-sea-ice-retreats72 6276278.html (Accessed 4 February 2012)
  • 73. Permafrost Dramatic and unprecedented Paul Mahony 2013 astonished has never before witnessed the scale and force of the methane being released from beneath the Arctic seabed. Connor, S, “Vast methane 'plumes' seen in Arctic ocean as sea ice retreats”, The Independent, 13 December, 2011, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/vast-methane-plumes-seen-in-arctic-ocean-as-sea-ice-retreats73 6276278.html (Accessed 4 February 2012)
  • 74. Permafrost ionary at 115 st a t t abou ields of . ecks a hane f before ch t n ied ou vered met ot see re wide n rr scale e or mo We ca d disco " a an nk on kilometr i points le - I th were a e astonished ic sca nto th ndred t i s fantas the plume irectly as a hu of went d tion w Some emissions ra Alaska ncent o he sity of c ver and t e - the ormal," ch Centre at the Uni r osphe r than n Arctic Resear atm highoethe International timesemiletov f S Dramatic and unprecedented Paul Mahony 2013 r Dr Igo s nk Fairba has never before witnessed the scale and force of the methane being released from beneath the Arctic seabed. Reuters, “Arctic methane release could cost economy $60 trillion: Study”, 24 July, 2013 Connor, S, “Vast methane 'plumes' seen in Arctic ocean as sea ice retreats”, The Independent, 13 December, 2011, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/vast-methane-plumes-seen-in-arctic-ocean-as-sea-ice-retreats74 6276278.html (Accessed 4 February 2012)
  • 75. Permafrost s): erland Neth rsity ( iv e u s Un st Erasm der Ea un nd rsity a e from nive than of me idge U r se Camb e relea tonn 0 giga ecade of 5 nario a over a d Sce astonished n Se iberia S b” lio n e-bom 60 tril y$ tim acts b nomic co imp An “e hange te c lion l clima loba 70 tril is $ se g nomy Increa l eco globa of l value Annua Paul Mahony 2013 Dramatic and unprecedented has never before witnessed the scale and force of the methane being released from beneath the Arctic seabed. Reuters, “Arctic methane release could cost economy $60 trillion: Study”, 24 July, 2013 Connor, S, “Vast methane 'plumes' seen in Arctic ocean as sea ice retreats”, The Independent, 13 December, 2011, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/vast-methane-plumes-seen-in-arctic-ocean-as-sea-ice-retreats75 6276278.html (Accessed 4 February 2012)
  • 76. Some tangible results of changes in the Arctic, Antarctica and elsewhere in the form of extreme weather events
  • 77. Extreme Weather (Storms) “Further warming of the Greenland ice sheet and of the west and east Antarctic ice sheets may lead to pulses of ice-melt water which will cool adjacent ocean basins.” “The bulk of the continents continue to heat, due to a rise in greenhouse gases, feedbacks from fires, methane release from permafrost and reduction of CO2 intake by warming oceans.” “The resultant ocean-land temperature polarity generates storms, reflected in the title of James Hansen’s book, ‘Storms of my grandchildren’.” Paul Mahony 2013 “Similar conditions developed in November 2010 as north Siberia and Canada warmed to above 4° relative to C 1951-1980 while snow storms occurred in the North Atlantic.” Glikson, A., “As emissions rise, we may be heading for an ice-free planet”, The Conversation, 18 January, 2012, http://theconversation.edu.au/as-emissions-rise-we-may-be-heading-for-an-ice-free-planet-4893 (Accessed 4 February 2012). NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature Analysis, http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi77 bin/gistemp/do_nmap.py?year_last=2012&month_last=1&sat=4&sst=1&type=anoms&mean_gen=11&year1=2010&year2=2010&base 1=1951&base2=1980&radius=1200&pol=reg
  • 78. Extreme Weather (Storms) Also: Latent heat (more prevalent with more water vapour and provides more energy to fuel storms) Paul Mahony 2013 Warm land mass (and moisture in the atmosphere behind the warm front) and colder oceans elsewhere from melting ice (previous slide) Hansen, J., “Storms of my grandchildren”, Bloomsbury, 2009, pp. 253-257 and Image: Jhanz (Dreamstime.com) 78
  • 79. The link between extreme weather and global warming – Kevin Trenberth Paul Mahony 2013 I find it systematically tends to get underplayed . . . Because one of the opening statements . . . is “Well you can’t attribute a single event to climate change.” Dr. Kevin Trenberth, former head of the Climate Analysis Section of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, quoted in Romm, J. “Tornadoes, Extreme Weather And Climate Change, Revisited”, Climate Progress, 21 May, 2013 http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/05/21/2040221/tornadoes-extreme-weather-and-climate-change-revisited/ 79
  • 80. The link between extreme weather and global warming – Kevin Trenberth I find it systematically tends to get underplayed . . . Because one of the opening statements . . . is “Well you can’t attribute a single event to climate change.” Paul Mahony 2013 But there is a systematic influence on all of these weather events now-a-days because of the fact that there is [more] water vapor lurking around in the atmosphere than there used to be say 30 years ago. Dr. Kevin Trenberth, former head of the Climate Analysis Section of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, quoted in Romm, J. “Tornadoes, Extreme Weather And Climate Change, Revisited”, Climate Progress, 21 May, 2013 http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/05/21/2040221/tornadoes-extreme-weather-and-climate-change-revisited/ 80
  • 81. The link between extreme weather and global warming – Kevin Trenberth Paul Mahony 2013 It’s about a 4% extra amount, it invigorates the storms, it provides plenty of moisture for these storms and it’s unfortunate that the public is not associating these with the fact that this is one manifestation of climate change. Dr. Kevin Trenberth, former head of the Climate Analysis Section of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, quoted in Romm, J. “Tornadoes, Extreme Weather And Climate Change, Revisited”, Climate Progress, 21 May, 2013 http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/05/21/2040221/tornadoes-extreme-weather-and-climate-change-revisited/ 81
  • 82. The link between extreme weather and global warming – Kevin Trenberth It’s about a 4% extra amount, it invigorates the storms, it provides plenty of moisture for these storms and it’s unfortunate that the public is not associating these with the fact that this is one manifestation of climate change. Paul Mahony 2013 And the prospects are that these kinds of things will only get bigger and worse in the future. Dr. Kevin Trenberth, former head of the Climate Analysis Section of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, quoted in Romm, J. “Tornadoes, Extreme Weather And Climate Change, Revisited”, Climate Progress, 21 May, 2013 http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/05/21/2040221/tornadoes-extreme-weather-and-climate-change-revisited/ 82
  • 83. Paul Mahony 2013 High Sea Surface Temperatures and Floods – Kevin Trenberth (SST = “sea surface temperature”) Dr. Kevin Trenberth, “Framing the way to relate climate extremes to climate change”, Climatic Change, November 2012, Volume 115, Issue 2, pp 283-290, http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-012-0441-5/fulltext.html and http://download.springer.com/static/pdf/618/art%253A10.1007%252Fs10584-012-04415.pdf?auth66=1385578067_f8586f44b3eb6d6600165a7d12d3a6ae&ext=.pdf, cited in Romm, J., “Must-Read Trenberth: How to Relate Climate Extremes to Climatic Change”, Climate Progress, 25 March, 2012, http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/03/25/451347/must-read-trenberth-how-to-relate-climate-extremes-to-climate-change/ 83
  • 84. Paul Mahony 2013 High Sea Surface Temperatures and Floods – Kevin Trenberth (SST = “sea surface temperature”) Dr. Kevin Trenberth, “Framing the way to relate climate extremes to climate change”, Climatic Change, November 2012, Volume 115, Issue 2, pp 283-290, http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-012-0441-5/fulltext.html and http://download.springer.com/static/pdf/618/art%253A10.1007%252Fs10584-012-04415.pdf?auth66=1385578067_f8586f44b3eb6d6600165a7d12d3a6ae&ext=.pdf, cited in Romm, J., “Must-Read Trenberth: How to Relate Climate Extremes to Climatic Change”, Climate Progress, 25 March, 2012, http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/03/25/451347/must-read-trenberth-how-to-relate-climate-extremes-to-climate-change/ 84
  • 85. Paul Mahony 2013 Ocean Warming NOAA, “Why did Earth’s surface temperature stop rising in the past decade?”, 8 Nov 2013, http://www.climate.gov/newsfeatures/climate-qa/why-did-earth%E2%80%99s-surface-temperature-stop-rising-past-decade Adapted from Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Kevin E. Trenberth, Erland Källé, “Distinctive climate signals in reanalysis of global ocean heat content”, Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 40, Issue 9, pages 1754–1759, 16 May 2013 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50382/abstract and http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/Trenberth/websitearchive/trenberth.papers-moved/Balmaseda_Trenberth_Kallen_grl_13.pdf 85
  • 86. Evidence from CSIRO and BOM Paul Mahony 2013 Record and above average rainfall 2 years to Mar ‘12 Source: Bureau of Meteorology 86
  • 87. Evidence from CSIRO and BOM Paul Mahony 2013 Record and above average rainfall 1 Jan ’97 – 31/12/11 Source: Bureau of Meteorology cited in Climate Commission “Critical Decade: Extreme Weather” 87
  • 88. Evidence from CSIRO and BOM Paul Mahony 2013 Record hot days Source: CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, cited in Australian Academy of Science, “The Science of Climate Change: Questions and 88 Answers”, Aug 2010, Fig 3.3 http://www.science.org.au/reports/climatechange2010.pdf
  • 89. Evidence from CSIRO and BOM Paul Mahony 2013 Record cold days Source: CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, cited in Australian Academy of Science, “The Science of Climate Change: Questions and 89 Answers”, Aug 2010, Fig 3.3 http://www.science.org.au/reports/climatechange2010.pdf
  • 90. Evidence from Climate Commission Paul Mahony 2013 Global average rainfall trends 1900 – 2010 Source: Donat, M.G., et al (2013a). Updated analyses of temperature and precipitation extreme indices since the beginning of the twentieth century: The HadEX2 dataset, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmosphere 118 doi:10.1002/jgrd.50150, cited in Climate 90 Commission" Critical Decade: Extreme Weather”, April 2013
  • 91. Paul Mahony 2013 Evidence from Climate Commission Source: Donat, M.G., et al (2013a). Updated analyses of temperature and precipitation extreme indices since the beginning of the twentieth century: The HadEX2 dataset, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmosphere 118 doi:10.1002/jgrd.50150, cited in Climate 91 Commission" Critical Decade: Extreme Weather”, April 2013
  • 92. Extreme Weather Paul Mahony 2013 The jet stream is becoming “wavier,” with steeper troughs and higher ridges. Weather systems are progressing more slowly, raising the chances for longduration extreme events Image: National Weather Service JetStream - Online School for Weather http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/global/jet.htm Jennifer A. Francis, Stephen J. Vavrus, “Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes”, Geophysical Research Letters Volume 39, Issue 6, March 2012, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL051000/abstract cited in Freedman, A., “Arctic Warming is Altering Weather Patterns, Study Shows”, 30 Sep, 2012, http://www.climatecentral.org/news/arctic-warming-is-altering-weather-patterns-studyshows/ 92
  • 93. Extreme Weather Paul Mahony 2013 ould 0 feet c 0,00 Bay, ing at 3 udson r f ly to H tline ve, a je straight north at wa xas xas] he e [Te from Te ng th ream int duri e jet st po n th At one a ride o hed ave hitc h . Canada Image: From Weatherunderground, cited in Freedman, A., “Arctic Warming is Altering Weather Patterns, Study Shows”, 30 Sep, 2012, http://www.climatecentral.org/news/arctic-warming-is-altering-weather-patterns-study-shows/ Jennifer A. Francis, Stephen J. Vavrus, “Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes”, Geophysical Research Letters Volume 39, Issue 6, March 2012, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL051000/abstract cited in Freedman, A., “Arctic Warming is Altering Weather Patterns, Study Shows”, 30 Sep, 2012, http://www.climatecentral.org/news/arctic-warming-is-altering-weather-patterns-studyshows/ 93
  • 94. Paul Mahony 2013 Superstorm Sandy October 2012 Greene, C.H., J.A. Francis, and B.C. Monger. 2013. “Superstorm Sandy: A series of unfortunate events?” Oceanography 26(1):8–9, http://dx.doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2013.11 and http://www.tos.org/oceanography/archive/26-1_greene.pdf , cited in “How Arctic Ice Loss Amplified Superstorm Sandy — Oceanography Journal”, Joe Romm, Climate Progress, 15 March, 2013 http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/03/15/1725461/how-arctic-ice-loss-amplified-superstorm-sandy-oceanography-journal/ 94
  • 95. Superstorm Sandy October 2012 Paul Mahony 2013 f issue o e rch the Ma rctic sea ic rt in eA rs repo mertim nce Northern ns arche sum rese ha sio loss of utgers rs to en air mass inva vere nd R se ea ll a “Corne raphy that the warming - app sify Arctic eric mosph o g e en at int Oceano to greenhous eandering, int frequency of y west m ed the and attribut t stream and increase cane S je urri isphere latitudes, ered H He m t ste iddle one tha City area” m he toward ts like t n York ing eve pulated New block po ensely the d Greene, C.H., J.A. Francis, and B.C. Monger. 2013. “Superstorm Sandy: A series of unfortunate events?” Oceanography 26(1):8–9, http://dx.doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2013.11 and http://www.tos.org/oceanography/archive/26-1_greene.pdf , cited in “How Arctic Ice Loss Amplified Superstorm Sandy — Oceanography Journal”, Joe Romm, Climate Progress, 15 March, 2013 http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/03/15/1725461/how-arctic-ice-loss-amplified-superstorm-sandy-oceanography-journal/ 95
  • 96. Paul Mahony 2013 Superstorm Sandy October 2012 Greene, C.H., J.A. Francis, and B.C. Monger. 2013. “Superstorm Sandy: A series of unfortunate events?” Oceanography 26(1):8–9, http://dx.doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2013.11 and http://www.tos.org/oceanography/archive/26-1_greene.pdf , cited in “How Arctic Ice Loss Amplified Superstorm Sandy — Oceanography Journal”, Joe Romm, Climate Progress, 15 March, 2013 http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/03/15/1725461/how-arctic-ice-loss-amplified-superstorm-sandy-oceanography-journal/ 96
  • 97. Paul Mahony 2013 Natural Catastrophes 1980 – 2012 (Munich Re) 97
  • 98. Paul Mahony 2013 Natural Catastrophes - Australia (2011 Dollars) Insurance Council of Australia, “Catastrophe Events and the Community”, http://www.insurancecouncil.com.au/issuesubmissions/issues/catastrophe-events 98
  • 99. Change in risk levels (likelihood and consequences)
  • 100. High and Extreme Risk - Maplecroft Paul Mahony 2013 Maplecroft is a US-based risk consulting firm providing a portfolio of risk analytics, country risk research, mapping and risk calculator technology to multinational corporations, financial institutions, governments and NGOs. Maplecroft: http://maplecroft.com/about/introducing-maplecroft/ 100
  • 101. High and Extreme Risk - Maplecroft 31% of global economic output will be based in countries facing ‘high’ or ‘extreme’ risks from the impacts of climate change by 2025. That’s a 50% increase on current levels and more than double since Maplecroft began researching the issue in 2008. Paul Mahony 2013 Includes 67 countries whose estimated combined output of $44 trillion will come under increasing threat from the physical impacts of more frequent and extreme climate-related events, such as severe storms, flooding or drought. Extreme risk cities: Dhaka, Bangladesh; Manila, Philippines; Bangkok, Thailand; Yangon, Myanmar; Jakarta, Indonesia; Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam; and Kolkata (Calcutta), India Maplecroft: http://maplecroft.com/about/news/ccvi_2013.html; http://maplecroft.com/portfolio/new-analysis/2013/10/30/31-global-economic-outputforecast-face-high-or-extreme-climate-change-risks-2025-maplecroft-risk-atlas/ Image: Monsoon flooding in Bangkok, October 2011 © Thor Jorgen Udvang | Dreamstime.com 101
  • 102. High and Extreme Risk - Maplecroft 31% of global economic output will be based in countries facing ‘high’ or ‘extreme’ risks from the impacts of climate change by 2025. le ulnerab levels v That’s a 50% increase on current eavily in since Maplecroft and g h vestinmore than double in began researching the issue in 2008. brands al ft. . . glob “. ts . . . “ nment at Maplecro markewhose estimated combined output of $44 trillion will thcountriesad of Enviro Includes 67 grow e H Paul Mahony 2013 come mes Aincreasing threat from the physical impacts of more frequent and under llan, Ja extreme climate-related events, such as severe storms, flooding or drought. Extreme risk cities: Dhaka, Bangladesh; Manila, Philippines; Bangkok, Thailand; Yangon, Myanmar; Jakarta, Indonesia; Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam; and Kolkata (Calcutta), India Maplecroft: http://maplecroft.com/about/news/ccvi_2013.html; http://maplecroft.com/portfolio/new-analysis/2013/10/30/31-global-economic-outputforecast-face-high-or-extreme-climate-change-risks-2025-maplecroft-risk-atlas/ Image: Monsoon flooding in Bangkok, October 2011 © Thor Jorgen Udvang | Dreamstime.com 102
  • 103. High and Extreme Risk - Maplecroft Extreme risk countries include: Nigeria, Cambodia, Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, China, India, Pakistan and Vietnam. Paul Mahony 2013 High risk countries include: Indonesia, Thailand, Kenya and China. Maplecroft: http://maplecroft.com/about/news/ccvi_2013.html; http://maplecroft.com/portfolio/new-analysis/2013/10/30/31-globaleconomic-output-forecast-face-high-or-extreme-climate-change-risks-2025-maplecroft-risk-atlas/ Image: Monsoon flooding in Bangkok, October 2011 © Thor Jorgen Udvang | Dreamstime.com 103
  • 104. High and Extreme Risk - Maplecroft Extreme risk countries include: Nigeria, Cambodia, Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, China, India, Pakistan and ] Vietnam. cluding [in Paul Mahony 2013 a, ver Delt oshan . . . Ri e Pearl and F and th uancountries include: the g g en High u, Dong risk d, are amon Indonesia, Shenzh “ ho Thailand, Kenya and China. Guangz ring heartlan ities of u c anufact ft. hina’s m ed . . .” Maplecro C os ost exp m Maplecroft: http://maplecroft.com/about/news/ccvi_2013.html; http://maplecroft.com/portfolio/new-analysis/2013/10/30/31-globaleconomic-output-forecast-face-high-or-extreme-climate-change-risks-2025-maplecroft-risk-atlas/ Image: Monsoon flooding in Bangkok, October 2011 © Thor Jorgen Udvang | Dreamstime.com 104
  • 105. High and Extreme Risk - Maplecroft Extreme risk countries include: Nigeria, Cambodia, Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, China, India, Pakistan and Vietnam. Chinese k’ Paul Mahony 2013 ris g y ‘high ies usin man o an nce of s ncern to comp ra include: e appea ticular co High risk countriesWater Indonesia, “T h r g base. China. a n Thailand, s is of p a manufacturi Kenya and citie as country plecroft. t he Ma ss . . .” stre Maplecroft: http://maplecroft.com/about/news/ccvi_2013.html; http://maplecroft.com/portfolio/new-analysis/2013/10/30/31-globaleconomic-output-forecast-face-high-or-extreme-climate-change-risks-2025-maplecroft-risk-atlas/ Image: Monsoon flooding in Bangkok, October 2011 © Thor Jorgen Udvang | Dreamstime.com 105
  • 106. High and Extreme Risk Extreme risk countries include: Nigeria, ] 07 [IPCC Cambodia,ve 20 i Philippines, Indonesia, rvatChina, India, Pakistane Thailand, might b and conse iers n Vietnam.glac alaya E lly ientifica m sc . . . the “ H OF TH ELTING t the Hi ha XT ONE-SI rt said t repo N THE M KS tury. O en C RE risk countries include: Indonesia, y mid-c ATION HighLIES gone b NOW PA Red: L Thailand, L S o ’S POPU D SEASONAKenya andaChina.de lim te C EARTH ERS AN or “C CI , co-auth pratt OF GLA David S ATER.” ncy action” FOR W r emerge Paul Mahony 2013 the case fo Maplecroft: http://maplecroft.com/about/news/ccvi_2013.html; http://maplecroft.com/portfolio/new-analysis/2013/10/30/31-globaleconomic-output-forecast-face-high-or-extreme-climate-change-risks-2025-maplecroft-risk-atlas/ Image: Monsoon flooding in Bangkok, October 2011 © Thor Jorgen Udvang | Dreamstime.com “Global Warming – No more business as usual: This is an emergency!”, Environmental Activists’ Conference ’08: Climate Emergency – No More Business as Usual, 10 October, 2008, reproduced in Links International Journal of Socialist Renewal, http://links.org.au/node/683 Image: Earth and moon © Cornelius20 | Dreamstime.com 106
  • 107. High and Extreme Risk Extreme risk countries include: Nigeria, Cambodia, Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, China, India, Pakistan and n Vietnam. n lives i tio la he popu rovides ft tp to cial mel avid Spratt, per cen gla hina, 23 ions, where risk countries .” D High e “In C sou and include: Indonesia, reg erKenya rc rgency action” t rn Thailand, ason wa ase for eme China. e weste th se pal dry e Red: the c ci the prin C od Paul Mahony 2013 a te hor “Clim co-aut Maplecroft: http://maplecroft.com/about/news/ccvi_2013.html; http://maplecroft.com/portfolio/new-analysis/2013/10/30/31-globaleconomic-output-forecast-face-high-or-extreme-climate-change-risks-2025-maplecroft-risk-atlas/ Image: Monsoon flooding in Bangkok, October 2011 © Thor Jorgen Udvang | Dreamstime.com “Global Warming – No more business as usual: This is an emergency!”, Environmental Activists’ Conference ’08: Climate Emergency – No More Business as Usual, 10 October, 2008, reproduced in Links International Journal of Socialist Renewal, http://links.org.au/node/683 Image: Earth and moon © Cornelius20 | Dreamstime.com 107
  • 108. High and Extreme Risk Extreme risk countries include: Nigeria, Cambodia, Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, China, India, Pakistance and layan i Vietnam. the Hima f o ut the loss of BING, b s M lication AND MIND-NU p in “The im High a mcountries include: Indonesia, risk ention BAL O tes t are GL ee ely raThailand, Kenya and China. sh ar lamity r for ch a ca the case d: su Code Re ” a te ia. Austral , co-author “Clim Paul Mahony 2013 a tt avid Spr D tion” ency ac emerg Maplecroft: http://maplecroft.com/about/news/ccvi_2013.html; http://maplecroft.com/portfolio/new-analysis/2013/10/30/31-globaleconomic-output-forecast-face-high-or-extreme-climate-change-risks-2025-maplecroft-risk-atlas/ Image: Monsoon flooding in Bangkok, October 2011 © Thor Jorgen Udvang | Dreamstime.com “Global Warming – No more business as usual: This is an emergency!”, Environmental Activists’ Conference ’08: Climate Emergency – No More Business as Usual, 10 October, 2008, reproduced in Links International Journal of Socialist Renewal, http://links.org.au/node/683 Image: Earth and moon © Cornelius20 | Dreamstime.com 108
  • 109. Some changes in likelihood or consequences from climate change Description Impact European heatwaves 2003 (35,000+ deaths, losses of €13 billion)1 6 fold Australia’s record-breaking temperatures 5 fold of 2012/132 2 - 7 fold Increased building damage from 25% increase in wind speed (40-50k to 50-60k)4 Paul Mahony 2013 Increased frequency of Katrina-strength (or greater) hurricanes for every 1oC rise in temperature3 650% 50 cm rise in sea level = increase in Typically several frequency of extreme inundation events.5 hundred - 1,000 fold 109 Ref: 1. Dr Myles Allen, Oxford University; 2. Sophie Lewis & David Karoly, Melbourne University; 3. Aslak Grinsted et al, University of Copenhagen (in PNAS); 4. Insurance Australia Group from ANU/IGCC report; 5. Australian Climate Commission “The Critical Decade: Extreme Weather”
  • 110. Some changes in likelihood or consequences from climate change Description Impact European heatwaves 2003 (35,000+ deaths, losses of €13 billion): 6 fold.1 Australia’s record-breaking temperatures of 2012/13: 5 fold.2 Increased frequency of Katrina-strength (or greater) hurricanes for every 1oC rise in temperature: 2 - 7 fold.3 Paul Mahony 2013 Increased building damage from 25% increase in wind speed (40-50k to 50-60k)4 50 cm rise in sea level = increase in frequency of extreme inundation events.5 110 Ref: 1. Dr Myles Allen, Oxford University; 2. Sophie Lewis & David Karoly, Melbourne University; 3. Aslak Grinsted et al, University of Copenhagen (in PNAS); 4. Insurance Australia Group from ANU/IGCC report; 5. Australian Climate Commission “The Critical Decade: Extreme Weather”
  • 111. Some changes in likelihood or consequences from climate change Description Impact European heatwaves 2003 (35,000+ deaths, losses of €13 billion)1 Australia’s record-breaking temperatures of 2012/132 Increased frequency of Katrina-strength (or greater) hurricanes for every 1oC rise in temperature3 Paul Mahony 2013 Increased building damage from 25% increase in wind speed (40-50k to 50-60k)4 50 cm rise in sea level = increase in frequency of extreme inundation events.5 Ref: Australian Climate Commission “The Critical Decade: Extreme Weather”, p. 51 111
  • 112. Some changes in likelihood or consequences from climate change Description Impact European heatwaves 2003 (35,000+ deaths, losses of €13 billion)1 Australia’s record-breaking temperatures of 2012/132 Increased frequency of Katrina-strength (or greater) hurricanes for every 1oC rise in temperature3 Paul Mahony 2013 Increased building damage from 25% increase in wind speed (40-50k to 50-60k)4 50 cm rise in sea level = increase in frequency of extreme inundation events.5 Ref: Australian Climate Commission “The Critical Decade: Extreme Weather”, p. 51 112
  • 113. Some changes in likelihood or consequences from climate change Description Impact European heatwaves 2003 (35,000+ deaths, losses of €13 billion)1 Australia’s record-breaking temperatures of 2012/132 Increased frequency of Katrina-strength (or greater) hurricanes for every 1oC rise in temperature3 Paul Mahony 2013 Increased building damage from 25% increase in wind speed (40-50k to 50-60k)4 50 cm rise in sea level = increase in frequency of extreme inundation events.5 Ref: Australian Climate Commission “The Critical Decade: Extreme Weather”, p. 51 113
  • 114. Some changes in likelihood or consequences from climate change Description Impact Increase in frequency of extreme European heatwaves 2003 (35,000+ inundation event several hundred billion)1 deaths, losses of €13 to 1,000 times. Australia’s record-breaking temperatures of 2012/132 Increased frequency of Katrina-strength (or greater) hurricanes for every 1oC rise in temperature3 Paul Mahony 2013 Increased building damage from 25% increase in wind speed (40-50k to 50-60k)4 50 cm rise in sea level = increase in frequency of extreme inundation events.5 Ref: Australian Climate Commission “The Critical Decade: Extreme Weather”, p. 51 114
  • 115. Some changes in likelihood or consequences from climate change Description Impact Increase in frequency of extreme European heatwaves 2003 (35,000+ inundation event several hundred billion)1 deaths, losses of €13 to 1,000 times. Australia’s record-breaking temperatures Sydney2= 1,000 times. of 2012/13 Increased frequency of Katrina-strength (or greater) hurricanes for every 1oC rise in temperature3 Paul Mahony 2013 Increased building damage from 25% increase in wind speed (40-50k to 50-60k)4 50 cm rise in sea level = increase in frequency of extreme inundation events.5 Ref: Australian Climate Commission “The Critical Decade: Extreme Weather”, p. 51 115
  • 116. Some changes in likelihood or consequences from climate change Description Impact Increase in frequency of extreme European heatwaves 2003 (35,000+ inundation event several hundred billion)1 deaths, losses of €13 to 1,000 times. Australia’s record-breaking temperatures Sydney2= 1,000 times. of 2012/13 Increased100 year event will occur almost monthly. A 1 in frequency of Katrina-strength (or greater) hurricanes for every 1oC rise in temperature3 Paul Mahony 2013 Increased building damage from 25% increase in wind speed (40-50k to 50-60k)4 50 cm rise in sea level = increase in frequency of extreme inundation events.5 Ref: Australian Climate Commission “The Critical Decade: Extreme Weather”, p. 51 116
  • 117. Some changes in likelihood or consequences from climate change Description Impact European heatwaves 2003 (> 35,000 deaths, losses of €13 billion)1 6 fold Australia’s record-smashing “angry summer” of 2012/13 (123 records) 2 - 7 fold Increased building damage from 25% increase in wind speed (40-50k to 50-60k)4 Paul Mahony 2013 Increased frequency of Katrina-strength (or greater) hurricanes for every 1oC rise in temperature3 650% 50 cm rise in sea level = increase in Typically several frequency of extreme inundation events.5 hundred - 1,000 fold 117
  • 118. Some changes in likelihood or consequences from climate change Description Impact European heatwaves 2003 (> 35,000 deaths, losses of €13 billion)1 6 fold Australia’s record-smashing “angry summer” of 2012/13 (123 records) Increased frequency of Katrina-strength 2 - 7 fold “Statistically, (or greater) hurricanes for every 1oC rise there is a 1 in 500 chance that we are talking about in temperature3 natural variation causing all these Increased building damage from records.” 650% new 25% Australian Climate increase in wind speed (40-50k to 50-60k)4 Commissioner Prof Will Paul Mahony 2013 Steffen, The Age 4 Mar 2013, “Climate 50 cm rise in sea level = increase in key factor in extremeseveral Typically weather, change a frequency of extreme inundation events.5 hundred - 1,000 experts say” fold 118
  • 119. Paul Mahony 2013 The Angry Summer 119
  • 120. Some changes in likelihood or consequences from climate change Impact Increased frequency of Category 4 and 5 Atlantic hurricanes by 21001 Double Increased frequency of extreme weather events2 10 fold Probability that 2010 Moscow heat wave (11,000 deaths) caused by climate change3 80% Increased frequency of abnormally wet or dry summer weather in southeastern USA4 Paul Mahony 2013 Description Double Ref: 1. Climate change, MSNBC, “Study: stronger hurricanes loom. Fewer expected but bigger storms to bring more damage”, commenting on Knutson et al (2010), 21 February 2010: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35506750/ns/us_news-environment/ and Knutuson, et al “Tropical cyclones and climate change”, Nature Geosciences, 3, 157 - 163 (2010): http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v3/n3/abs/ngeo779.html; 2. Tullus, Paul, “Global Warming: An exclusive look at James Hansen’s Scary New Math”, Time Science & Space, 10 May 2012 http://science.time.com/2012/05/10/global-warming-an-exclusive-look-at-james-hansens-scary-new-math/; 3. Tullus, Paul, ibid.; 4. Romm, J., Climate Progress, 28 Oct 2010, http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2010/10/28/206947/global-warming-extreme-wet-dry-summer-weather-in- 120 southeast-droughts-and-deluges/
  • 121. Some changes in likelihood or consequences from climate change Description Impact Increased frequency of Category 4 and 5 Atlantic hurricanes by 2100: Double.1 Increased frequency of extreme weather events: 10 fold.2 Probability that 2010 Moscow heat wave (11,000 deaths) caused by climate change: 80%.3 Paul Mahony 2013 Increased frequency of abnormally wet or dry summer weather in SE USA4 Ref: 1. Climate change, MSNBC, “Study: stronger hurricanes loom. Fewer expected but bigger storms to bring more damage”, commenting on Knutson et al (2010), 21 February 2010: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35506750/ns/us_news-environment/ and Knutuson, et al “Tropical cyclones and climate change”, Nature Geosciences, 3, 157 - 163 (2010): http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v3/n3/abs/ngeo779.html; 2. Tullus, Paul, “Global Warming: An exclusive look at James Hansen’s Scary New Math”, Time Science & Space, 10 May 2012 http://science.time.com/2012/05/10/global-warming-an-exclusive-look-at-james-hansens-scary-new-math/; 3. Tullus, Paul, ibid.; 4. Romm, J., Climate Progress, 28 Oct 2010, http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2010/10/28/206947/global-warming-extreme-wet-dry-summer-weather-in- 121 southeast-droughts-and-deluges/
  • 122. Some changes in likelihood or consequences from climate change Paul Mahony 2013 Melbourne, Australia, 26 Jan – 1 Feb 2009. 3 consecutive days above 43oC. 980 deaths = 62% above average for that period. Victorian Government Department of Human Service, 2009, “January 2009 Heatwave in Victoria: an Assessment of Health Impacts”, http://docs.health.vic.gov.au/docs/doc/F7EEA4050981101ACA257AD80074AE8B/%24FILE/heat_health_impact_rpt_Vic2009.pdf 122
  • 123. Some changes in likelihood or consequences from climate change Melbourne, Australia, 26 Jan – 1 Feb 2009. 3 consecutive days above 43oC. 980 deaths = 62% above average for that period. Deaths in Melbourne 26 Jan - 1 Feb 2009 1200 1000 800 980 600 400 606 200 Paul Mahony 2013 0 Standard Climate change impact Victorian Government Department of Human Service, 2009, “January 2009 Heatwave in Victoria: an Assessment of Health Impacts”, http://docs.health.vic.gov.au/docs/doc/F7EEA4050981101ACA257AD80074AE8B/%24FILE/heat_health_impact_rpt_Vic2009.pdf 123
  • 124. Some changes in likelihood or consequences from climate change Paul Mahony 2013 650% increase in building damage from 25% increase in peak gust speed from 40 - 50 to 50 - 60 knots. Ref: Insurance Australia Group, cited in Smith, M.H., “Assessing Climate Change Risk and Opportunities for Investors: Property and Construction Sector”, p.7 124
  • 125. Some changes in likelihood or consequences from climate change 650% increase in building damage from 25% increase in peak gust speed from 40 - 50 to 50 - 60 knots. % Increase in building damage versus peak gust speed Paul Mahony 2013 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 650 100 40 - 50 knots 50 - 60 knots Ref: Insurance Australia Group, cited in Smith, M.H., “Assessing Climate Change Risk and Opportunities for Investors: Property and Construction Sector”, p.7 125
  • 126. Some changes in likelihood or consequences from climate change Another example: “Yarra bursts banks as floods hit Melbourne”, The Age, 14 Jan 2011 The total precipitable water in the atmosphere in Melbourne on 13 Jan was 65.0 mm, 20% above the previous record of 54.5 mm Paul Mahony 2013 Karoly, Prof. David, School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, “The recent extreme weather in eastern Australia: A sign of climate change or the response to La Niña?”, 23rd April, 2011 at Firbank Grammar, Brighton 126
  • 127. Paul Mahony 2013 Some changes in likelihood or consequences from climate change Ref: ANU/IGCC, “Assessing Climate Change Risks and Opportunities for Investors: Property and Construction” Australian Climate Commission, Apr 2013, “The Critical Decade: Extreme Weather”, p. 56 127
  • 128. More comments on likelihood or consequences from climate change Paul Mahony 2013 Modelling estimates 20% increase in hail storm frequency by 2050 for Sydney region. Australia’s costliest storm: Hail damage, Sydney, 14 April, 1999. In one hour, damage of $4.3 billion (2011 dollars). ANU/IGCC, “Assessing Climate Change Risks and Opportunities for Investors: Property and Construction” Australian Climate Commission, Apr 2013, “The Critical Decade: Extreme Weather”, p. 56; Image: Car hit by Hail © Robert Ruggiero | Dreamstime.com 128
  • 129. More comments on likelihood or consequences from climate change IAG Insurance Australia: We could see a doubling of Paul Mahony 2013 hailstorms with hailstones greater than 10 centimetres in diameter in the greater Sydney region over the next 50 years. Submission to 2013 Senate inquiry into preparedness for extreme weather events Hannam, P. “Costs soar for reinsurers”, Sydney Morning Herald, 18 Feb, 2013, http://www.smh.com.au/business/costs-soar-for-reinsurers20130217-2el7q.html 129
  • 130. More comments on likelihood or consequences from climate change “The climate dice are now loaded to a degree that the perceptive person (old enough to remember the climate of 1951-1980) should be able to recognize the existence of climate change.” Paul Mahony 2013 Dr James Hansen, cited in Freedman, A. “NASA scientist Hansen warns “climate dice” already loaded for more extreme weather”, Washington Post, 17 Nov 2011 130
  • 131. Some benefits of meaningful action
  • 132. The benefits of meaningful action Paul Mahony 2013 Mean benefit to cost ratio of proactive climate change adaptation measures estimated at 60:1 for Construction and Property sector. Parry, M. et al “Assessing the costs of adaptation to climate change: A review of UNFCCC and other recent estimates”, Imperial College, Grantham Institute for Climate Change, UK, cited in ANU/IGCC “Assessing Climate Change Risks and Opportunities for Investors: Property and Construction Sector”, p. 10 132
  • 133. The benefits of meaningful action Paul Mahony 2013 “When it comes to climate change we have the option to choose our desired combination of mitigation, adaptation, and suffering . . . climate change consequences from carbon emissions are already costing our society hundreds of billions of dollars every year. Research by the German Institute for Economic Research and Watkiss et al. 2005 have concluded that choosing mitigation above adaption would save us tens of trillions of dollars.” Skeptical Science, “Exxon-Mobil CEO Downplays the Global Warming Threat“, 13th July, 2012, http://www.skepticalscience.com/exxonmobi-ceo-denies-climate-threat.html citing German Institute for Economic Research and Watkiss et al. 2005 133
  • 135. Some Impacts by Industry – Property & Construction $159 billion worth of Australian buildings vulnerable to sea level rise, incl. 8,000 commercial, 6,000 industrial and 274,000 residential. Modelling indicates Category 5 cyclone striking Cairns = $8 billion in property damage and business interruption. Paul Mahony 2013 Australian Industry Group-Housing Industry Association’s Performance of Construction index at 35.6 in Mar 2012 due to rain delays from spring 2010 to 2012, adding to construction costs. (A figure below 50 = contraction.) Jan 2007 bushfires reduced Victoria’s power supply by one-third, cutting electricity to 200,000 homes and commercial properties. ANU/IGCC, “Assessing Climate Change Risks and Opportunities for Investors: Property and Construction” 135
  • 136. Some Impacts by Industry – Mining Cyclone Yasi and flood in 2011 shut down 85% of Qld coal mines, costing $2.5 billion. Open coal mine fire at Hazelwood power station in Victoria from bushfire in 2006. 2 km long and weeks to control. Paul Mahony 2013 Heat stress long recognised as an issues for the mining industry. No. 1 weather-related cause of death in the US and responsible for more than 35,000 deaths in Europe in heatwave of 2003. Extreme rain and flooding can cause tailing dams to fail, with resultant legal liabilities. ANU/IGCC, “Assessing Climate Change Risks and Opportunities for Investors: Mining and Minerals Processing”; Image: mining helmet with lamp vector illustration © Miguel angel Salinas salinas | Dreamstime.com 136
  • 137. Some Impacts by Industry – Oil & Gas Storm surge from Hurricane Katrina closed oil production in Gulf of Mexico for six months, cutting annual US oil production by 20%. Up to 50% of Australia’s refineries are on the coast not far above sea level. Gorgon LNG project off WA severely impacted by cyclones and other weather events, contributing to construction cost blow-outs of US$15 billion. Paul Mahony 2013 Coal seam gas industry will require 7,600 gigalitres of groundwater over next two decades = one-third of annual flow from Murray-Darling river system. ANU/IGCC, “Assessing Climate Change Risks and Opportunities for Investors: Oil and Gas”; Image: Oil and gas industry - refinery at 137 twilight - factory – petroche © Tomas1111 | Dreamstime.com
  • 138. Some Impacts by Industry – Oil & Gas Storm surge from Hurricane Katrina closed oil production in Gulf of Mexico for six months, cutting annual US oil production by 20%. Up to 50% of Australia’s refineries are on the coast not far above sea level. Gorgon LNG project off WA severely impacted by cyclones and other weather events, contributing to construction cost blow-outs of US$15 billion. Paul Mahony 2013 Coal seam gas industry will require 7,600 gigalitres of groundwater over next two decades = one-third of annual flow from Murray-Darling river system. There’s more than a little irony in all this. ANU/IGCC, “Assessing Climate Change Risks and Opportunities for Investors: Oil and Gas”; Image: Oil and gas industry - refinery at 138 twilight - factory – petroche © Tomas1111 | Dreamstime.com
  • 139. Some Impacts by Industry – Utilities Increased risk of shutdowns at coal, natural gas and nuclear power plants due to decreased water availability affecting cooling at thermoelectric power plants. Paul Mahony 2013 Higher risks to energy infrastructure along coasts due to sea level rise, increasing intensity of storms, higher storm surge and flooding. Power lines, transformers and electricity distribution systems face increasing risks of damage from hurricanes, storms and wildfires that are growing more frequent and intense. April Saylor, US Dept of Energy, “Climate Change: Effects on Our Energy”, 11 July 2013, http://energy.gov/articles/climate-change-effectsour-energy#all 139 Note: Some map locations are approximate.
  • 140. Can we rely on planning regulators?
  • 141. Can we rely on planning regulators? “There is a growing recognition of how inadequate current regulatory frameworks are to protect company assets and operations from more intense extreme weather events” “State governments and local councils . . . Differ considerably in their approach to climate change risk for new and existing construction and property projects.” “Even after the Black Saturday bushfires, there is no consistent approach to bushfire risk reduction in building codes across Australia.” Paul Mahony 2013 “Australia lacks a cohesive national coastal planning framework.” ANU/Investor Group on Climate Change, “Assessing Climate Change Risks and Opportunities for Investors: Property and Construction” Australian Climate Commission, Apr 2013, “The Critical Decade: Extreme Weather”, p. 10 Also http://www.igcc.org.au/about Image: Dog Rescue © 1000words | Dreamstime.com 141
  • 142. Can we rely on planning regulators? “There is a growing recognition of how inadequate current regulatory frameworks are to protect company assets and operations from more intense extreme weather events” e, a hang e imate C on C l ing on th e p uss “State stor Grou local councils . . . Differ e governments andestors foc stments. Th y Inv and inv nv e ission b considerablyealtheir approach tof climate change risk New Z in ncial value o i er comm ort and rom rep stralianfor new and e fina construction und propertyent F u h existing tal funds and has on t tion of A to a estm e collabor t climate changprojects.” stors, with thers in the inv e s. ional inv rillion, and o t tha estment stitut impac on inv $1 t sents in ximately after the Blackte changebushfires, there is no pre group re nt of appro “Even pact of clima Saturday me the im ted in consistent approach to bushfire risk reduction in manage eres building codes across Australia.” unity int comm Paul Mahony 2013 “Australia lacks a cohesive national coastal planning framework.” ANU/Investor Group on Climate Change, “Assessing Climate Change Risks and Opportunities for Investors: Property and Construction” Australian Climate Commission, Apr 2013, “The Critical Decade: Extreme Weather”, p. 10 Also http://www.igcc.org.au/about; Image: Dog Rescue © 1000words | Dreamstime.com 142
  • 143. Can we rely on planning regulators? “We shouldn't regard this [Brisbane January 2011 flood] as freakish,” said Professor Ed Blakely, who ran the recovery of New Orleans after hurricane Katrina and was involved in New York's after 9/11. “We should assume they are going to occur because of climate change. They are becoming increasingly frequent and far more devastating.” Paul Mahony 2013 He warned it was also time to examine the need for Queenslanders to ''retreat from the coast'' to escape rising sea levels. ''I warned people in Brisbane before hurricane Katrina that this could happen. I had all the CSIRO data that showed a flood that looked very much like the flood that happened. They scoffed.'' Karen Kissane, “Disaster expert urges a retreat from the coast”, The Age, 15 January 2011: http://www.theage.com.au/national/disasterexpert-urges-a-retreat-from-the-coast-20110114-19rcg.html; Image: Dog Rescue © 1000words | Dreamstime.com 143
  • 144. Can we rely on planning regulators? Paul Mahony 2013 “Waterfront communities from Southbank to the Mornington Peninsula face a damage bill of more than $1 billion from severe storms and rising sea levels over the next 90 years, according to a confidential climate change report.” Cameron Houston, “Climate Change Bill of $1b for suburbs”, The Age, 21 Oct 2012 http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/climate-change-bill-of-1bfor-suburbs-20121020-27yli.html; Image: Dog Rescue © 1000words | Dreamstime.com 144
  • 145. Can we rely on planning regulators? “Waterfront communities from Southbank to the Mornington Peninsula face a damage bill of more than $1 billion from severe storms and rising sea levels over the next 90 years, according to a confidential climate change report.” Paul Mahony 2013 90 years or sooner? Remember actual Arctic sea ice loss vs projected, and the impact on Greenland. 145 Cameron Houston, “Climate Change Bill of $1b for suburbs”, The Age, 21 Oct 2012 http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/climate-change-bill-of-1bfor-suburbs-20121020-27yli.html; Image: Dog Rescue © 1000words | Dreamstime.com
  • 146. Can we rely on planning regulators? The Age newspaper reported that the Victorian state government would “wind back rules making new property developments in seaside towns plan for sea-level rises caused by climate change, arguing they have hampered rural growth.” “The changes [would] require 20 centimetres of sea-level rise by 2040 to be considered in new urban development in coastal towns such as Lakes Entrance, Port Lonsdale and Port Fairy.” Paul Mahony 2013 Regulators and their insurers need to consider the legal liability risk. Tom Arup, “State eases sea level regulations”, The Age, 6 June 2012, http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/state-eases-sea-level-regulations20120605-1zu9i.html; Image: Dog Rescue © 1000words | Dreamstime.com 146
  • 147. Some insurance industry participants are unconvinced of increased likelihood and frequency of extreme events, but members of the former Australian Climate Commission and others have a different view.
  • 148. What are insurers saying? QBE Chair, Belinda Hutchinson, 19 April, 2011 Paul Mahony 2013 Climate change has nothing to do with the recent string of natural disasters that have cost insurance companies more than $3.6 billion. “QBE blames La Nina for disasters”, Gareth Hutchens, Sydney Morning Herald, 20/04/11, http://www.smh.com.au/business/qbe-blames148 la-nina-for-disasters-20110419-1dng1.html
  • 149. What are insurers saying? QBE Chair, Belinda Hutchinson, 19 April, 2011 Climate change has nothing to do with the recent string of natural disasters that have cost insurance companies more than $3.6 billion. Paul Mahony 2013 "The catastrophe events that have taken place this year, the floods in Queensland, the fires, have nothing to do with climate change. They are part of Australia's really long history of floods, fires, droughts.” “QBE blames La Nina for disasters”, Gareth Hutchens, Sydney Morning Herald, 20/04/11, http://www.smh.com.au/business/qbe-blames149 la-nina-for-disasters-20110419-1dng1.html
  • 150. What are insurers saying? Insurance Council of Australia, January 2013 “. . . the scale and extent of extreme weather events in Australia . . . are not increasing and are not unprecedented.” Paul Mahony 2013 “Australia has a long record of fire, floods, storms and cyclones.” Argues that we should focus on exposure and vulnerability, rather than hazard (frequency and intensity) Insurance Council of Australia, Submission to Senate Standing Committee on Environment and Communications: Recent trends in and preparedness for extreme weather events, dated 14 Jan 2012 but seems to be 14 Jan 2013 150
  • 151. What are insurers saying? Insurance Council of Australia, January 2013 Paul Mahony 2013 s ought in : “. . . the scale and extent sion of extreme weather dr events is e te of lim omm careanotinue in th Australia . . . are C increasing and ate not riable to cont im va an Cl unprecedented.” a highly is likely li ustra A f g had s pattern erity o as lon nd thi v h a tralia rains, a long record of fire, floods,the se and e us A“Australia has vy creas storms a in nd he ely to a k cyclones.” e is li . 2013 hang April uture f c r” s. imate ther event : Extreme Weathe r, cl vethat wewea eca on Argues eme shouldrifocusde exposure and Howe xtr tical D he C e ion “T vulnerability,ommiss these limate C rather than hazard (frequency and ian C intensity) ustral A Insurance Council of Australia, Submission to Senate Standing Committee on Environment and Communications: Recent trends in and preparedness for extreme weather events, dated 14 Jan 2012 but seems to be 14 Jan 2013 151
  • 152. What are insurers saying? Insurance Council of Australia, January 2013 have “. . . the scale and extent ofon: extreme weatherralia events in ust issi A o increasing waveare not ve have Australia . . . are notmm and s in C a imate Cl f heat g a heatw o n unprecedented.” tralia uency ys durin Aus d freq est da n 2013 tion a he hott ra April u r” e W floods, storms and The d ed, and t a long record ofxtfire, eathe “Australia has rem as tter. itical Decade: E incre cyclones.” en ho “The Cr me ev ommission beco eC Paul Mahony 2013 limat ian C al Austr Argues that we should focus on exposure and vulnerability, rather than hazard (frequency and intensity) Insurance Council of Australia, Submission to Senate Standing Committee on Environment and Communications: Recent trends in and preparedness for extreme weather events, dated 14 Jan 2012 but seems to be 14 Jan 2013 152
  • 153. What are insurers saying? Paul Mahony 2013 Insurance Council of Australia, January 2013 “. . . the scale and extent sioextreme weathereevents in of n: s the c mi s ady fa nditions. om Australia . . . are not increasingnd alrare not o and e ate C c f fire a ire danger n Clim a unprecedented.” istory o in strali h u ease me f A cr a long and extre ant in as ic alia h f serious signif lia. a Austr risk o “Australia has a long recordate fire,Austra storms and dic of st floods, 13 ture in uthea gular il 20 e rcyclones.” s for fu r” Apr o the tion r for s de: Extreme Wea projec ire weathe tical Deca The i f he Cr erous weisshould focus on exposure and ion “T Argues thatComm s dang limate ian C vulnerability, rather than hazard (frequency and ustral A intensity) Insurance Council of Australia, Submission to Senate Standing Committee on Environment and Communications: Recent trends in and preparedness for extreme weather events, dated 14 Jan 2012 but seems to be 14 Jan 2013 153
  • 154. Paul Mahony 2013 What are insurers saying? Insurance Council of Australia, January 2013 : ange h y ate C ns wh i im “. . . the scale and extentlof extreme weather events in nderp nd on C u up Nina Gronot increasing and are ghts a a Australiast. . are e . or and L “of drou not v o U / In unprecedented.” El Nin e land AN n etwee s been th ly this tion b lway e a hly lik more Oscill a has a ig ali “Australia has a long record of sts it floods, storms and fire, is h come . Austr rains” sugge od will be g n ce cyclones.” nities floodi scien ht and flo e pportu at nd O isks a t clim en droug R s ange e late betwe te Ch Th Clima Argues tthat we should focus, “on sexposure and . on e sing e i s scilla and intens al University r, A.s7” o p vulnerability, ratheratthannhazard (frequency and ion Secto me nN la extre Smith, Austraaind Constructio intensity) roperty l ichae Dr M stors – P e for Inv Insurance Council of Australia, Submission to Senate Standing Committee on Environment and Communications: Recent trends in and preparedness for extreme weather events, dated 14 Jan 2012 but seems to be 14 Jan 2013 154
  • 155. Paul Mahony 2013 What are insurers saying? Insurance Council of Australia, Jan 2013 nd : of extreme weather events in MA a “. . . the scale and extent p U, NR orical Grou G th and at not AustraliaAustareia increasing e C are “hist . . . ral not nder e de for h u t c ui unprecedented.” urance its website sed as a g suran In s u ells in ates on ot be e past. ch s i G, wh nds . . . st ta” could n s in th IA n g at “Australia has ther da record bly fire, floods, rstormsaand a long of a V bra n ia RAC wea ccu ri rate at as rel o nd cyclones.” future risk e vents ims a d cla s in e ncern is th e n xtrem ular co rent a , cur new e partic ys. ngshould focus on exposure and rald, 20/l04/11 e Argues rthat ei e se we g rate. Of ” the site sa ey Morning Hdng1.htm a -1 “ We , S dn vulnerability,sratherhanging eth Hutc(frequency1and rea in e c than hazard hensisasyters-201104 9 c ver in ings ar r-d Gar e ters”, s-la-nina-fo s intensity)h rd a ich t es La Nina foessisqbe-blame / wh blam busin m.au/ “QBE From ww.smh.co w http:// Insurance Council of Australia, Submission to Senate Standing Committee on Environment and Communications: Recent trends in and preparedness for extreme weather events, dated 14 Jan 2012 but seems to be 14 Jan 2013 155
  • 156. What are insurers saying? Insurance Council of Australia, Jan 2013 Paul Mahony 2013 Insurance losses due to extreme weather events over last 40yrs (Source: Risk Frontiers Analysis of ICA Data) Insurance Council of Australia, Submission to Senate Standing Committee on Environment and Communications: Recent trends in and preparedness for extreme weather events, dated 14 Jan 2012 but seems to be 14 Jan 2013 156
  • 157. What are insurers saying? Insurance Council of Australia, Jan 2013 Paul Mahony 2013 Insurance losses due to extreme weather events over last 40yrs Nomalised (Source: Risk Frontiers Analysis of ICA Data) Normalised for changes: in the number of dwellings in a location; the average size and value of dwellings; building age; and Building Code improvements. Insurance Council of Australia, Submission to Senate Standing Committee on Environment and Communications: Recent trends in and 157 preparedness for extreme weather events
  • 158. What are insurers saying? Insurance Council of Australia, Jan 2013 Insurance losses due to extreme weather events over last 40yrs Nomalised (Source: Risk Frontiers Analysis of ICA Data) nce Paul Mahony 2013 e t experi s , can pa ck lid on is va ate feedba ati ) ormalis (a) clim ending; and (b his n t view of: Even if l tr upon in ading to onentia d le p be relie sing ex entially au ot nisms c pping points p mecha i hange t c s? climate change p rupt ste ab Normalised for changes: in the number of dwellings in a location; the average size and value of dwellings; building age; and Building Code improvements. Insurance Council of Australia, Submission to Senate Standing Committee on Environment and Communications: Recent trends in and 158 preparedness for extreme weather events
  • 159. What are insurers saying? Insurance Council of Australia, Jan 2013 The increasing cost of insured losses over time is explained predominantly by growth in the number of insured buildings exposed and the nature of those buildings, rather than increased frequency or intensity of extreme events. [Munich Re has a different view in relation to storm events. See subsequent slides.] Paul Mahony 2013 Argues that the insurance mechanism must be maintained as a price signal to encourage adaptive behaviour. [Compare with Munich Re.] Insurance Council of Australia, Submission to Senate Standing Committee on Environment and Communications: Recent trends in and 159 preparedness for extreme weather events
  • 160. What are insurers saying? Insurance Council of Australia in relation to Climate Commission’s “The Critical Decade: Extreme Weather” Report (Insurance News, 15 April, 2013) Paul Mahony 2013 • ICA has shown “polite interest” only. • Insurers look just one or two years ahead. • Link between climate change and extreme weather needs to be established with “full certainty”. • The data is insufficient at this point for insurers to act on it. • No insurer covers gradual change in sea level or other anticipated impacts of global warming. Insurance News, “Climate change: a catalyst for extreme weather”, 15 April 2013 160
  • 161. What are insurers saying? Insurance Council of Australia in relation to Climate Commission’s “The Critical Decade: Extreme Weather” Report (Insurance News, 15 April, 2013) ahead? • ICA has shown “polite interest” ears or two y only. e • Insurers k just on or two years ahead. look just one oo Why lbetween climate change and extreme weather needs • Link Paul Mahony 2013 to be established with “full certainty”. • The data is insufficient at this point for insurers to act on it. • No insurer covers gradual change in sea level or other anticipated impacts of global warming. Insurance News, “Climate change: a catalyst for extreme weather”, 15 April 2013 161
  • 162. What are insurers saying? Insurance Council of Australia in relation to Climate Commission’s “The Critical Decade: Extreme Weather” Report (Insurance News, 15 April, 2013) ahead? • ICA has shown “polite interest” ears or two y only. e • Insurers k just on or two years ahead. look just one oo Why lbetween climate change and extreme weather needs • Link to be established with “full certainty”. • The data is insufficient at this point for insurers !to act on it. now ning level or other • No insurer covers gradual changee sea e happ in r anticipated impacts ts global warming. venof a the e Paul Mahony 2013 sides, Be Insurance News, “Climate change: a catalyst for extreme weather”, 15 April 2013 162
  • 163. What are insurers saying? Paul Mahony 2013 Insurance Council of Australia in relation to Climate Commission’s “The Critical Decade: Extreme on s based Weather” Report (Insurance News, 15usines 2013) April, ab n tainty” i r r “full ce fo e n shown “polite interest” only. hhaseed • ICA Wh y t s? •probabilitilook just one or two years ahead. Insurers e • Link between climate change and extreme weather needs to be established with “full certainty”. • The data is insufficient at this point for insurers to act on it. • No insurer covers gradual change in sea level or other anticipated impacts of global warming. Insurance News, “Climate change: a catalyst for extreme weather”, 15 April 2013 163
  • 164. What are insurers saying? Paul Mahony 2013 Insurance Council of Australia in relation to Climate Commission’s “The Critical Decade: Extreme or other Weather” Report (Insurance News, 15 April,level sea 2013) in change al . s gradu er r cov“polite interest”arming w only. re •oICA ihas shown s of global no nsu t S d impac one or two years ahead. te • Insurers look just anticipa e, • Link between climate change and extremetorm damag weather needs s , flood, to be established withe, bucertainty”. er”! “full shfire g orm sur at Angry Summ s • The datat is tinsufficiente “ this point for insurers to act on it. t abou r th Wha insurer membegradual change in sea level or other • Noetc? Re covers hail, anticipated impacts of global warming. Insurance News, “Climate change: a catalyst for extreme weather”, 15 April 2013 164
  • 165. What are insurers and others saying? Paul Mahony 2013 Insurance Council of Australia in relation to Climateier with earl t onsisten Commission’s “The Critical Decade: Extremeat reflects a ec onses ar rspective th Weather” system resp Report (Insurance News, 15 April, 2013) a nonpe s rance conomy , wherea su le In tem ica arth sys nal polit the E ern tio intICAahas shownding ofinterest” d. • ar understan “polite require only. is line tanding or two years ahead. • Insurers ers just one look ear und lin • Link between climate change and extreme weather needs to be established with “full certainty”. • The data is insufficient at this point for insurers to act on it. • No insurer covers gradual change in sea level or other anticipated impacts of global warming. Insurance News, “Climate change: a catalyst for extreme weather”, 15 April 2013 Liam Phelan, Macquarie University, “The relationship between anthropogenic climate change and the insurance system: Imperatives, options and reflections on theory”, 4 Aug 2010 (PhD Thesis) 165
  • 166. What are insurers and others saying? Paul Mahony 2013 Insurance Council of Australia in relation to Climateier with earl t onsisten Commission’s “The Critical Decade: Extremeat reflects a ec onses ar rspective th Weather” system resp Report (Insurance News, 15 April, 2013) a nonpe s rance conomy , wherea su le In tem ica arth sys nal polit the E ern tio intICAahas shownding ofinterest” d. • ar understan “polite require only. is line tanding or two years ahead. • Insurers ers just one look e ear und insuranc e lin • Link between climate change e basis of th weatherial risk and extreme nanc needs th rminescertainty”.spread fi n to be establishedde “full pool and change u withy to t Climate • The data. ishinsufficient at babipoint .for insurers to act on it. this lities e capaci m, i.e t ro syste insurer covers wn p change in sea level or other • No basis of kno gradual the onanticipated impacts of global warming. Insurance News, “Climate change: a catalyst for extreme weather”, 15 April 2013 Liam Phelan, Macquarie University, “The relationship between anthropogenic climate change and the insurance system: Imperatives, options and reflections on theory”, 4 Aug 2010 (PhD Thesis) 166
  • 167. Paul Mahony 2013 What are insurers and others saying? Insurance Council of Australia in relation to Climateier with earl t onsisten Commission’s “The Critical Decade: Extremeat reflects a ec onses ar rspective th Weather” system resp Report (Insurance News, 15 April, 2013) a nonpe s rance conomy , wherea su le In tem ica arth sys nal polit the E ern tio intICAahas shownding ofinterest” d. • ar understan “polite require only. is line tanding or two years ahead. • Insurers ers just one look e ear und insuranc e lin • Link between climate change e basis of th weatherial risk and extreme nanc needs th rminescertainty”.spread fi n to be establishedde “full pool and change u withy to t Climate • The data. ishinsufficient at babipoint .for insurers to act on it. this lities e capaci m, i.e t ro syste insurer covers wn p change in sea level or other • No basis of kno gradual f the menon o onanticipated impacts of global warming. heno tp coheren y a globall s change i Climate gnitude. a dented me University unprece , Macquari elan Liam Ph News, “Climate change: a catalyst for extreme weather”, 15 April 2013 Insurance Liam Phelan, Macquarie University, “The relationship between anthropogenic climate change and the insurance system: Imperatives, options and reflections on theory”, 4 Aug 2010 (PhD Thesis) 167
  • 168. Paul Mahony 2013 What are insurers and others saying? ly s the on i itigation Climate Insurance Council of Australia e m in relation toage its effectiv n ogic lly m o ma l“TheaCritical Decade: tExtreme o te Commission’s g and ec e insurance sys “Stron Weather” s for th (Insurance e risk.”15 April, 2013) basi Report term climat News, viable nd longa medium • ICA has shown “polite interest” only. • Insurers look just one or two years ahead. • Link between climate change and extreme weather needs to be established with “full certainty”. • The data is insufficient at this point for insurers to act on it. • No insurer covers gradual change in sea level or other anticipated impacts of global warming. Insurance News, “Climate change: a catalyst for extreme weather”, 15 April 2013 Liam Phelan, Macquarie University, “The relationship between anthropogenic climate change and the insurance system: Imperatives, options and reflections on theory”, 4 Aug 2010 (PhD Thesis) 168
  • 169. Paul Mahony 2013 What are insurers and others saying? ly s the on i itigation Climate Insurance Council of Australia e m in relation toage its effectiv n ogic lly m o ma l“TheaCritical Decade: tExtreme o te Commission’s g and ec e insurance sys “Stron Weather” s for th (Insurance e risk.”15 April, 2013) basi Report term climat News, viable nd longa ur medium ition of o • ICA has shown “polite interest” only. defin e is by angyears ahead. he that will h • Insurers look just one or two climate c ating catastrop pogenic robetween climate celer and extremeies. c change • Link et weather needs “Anth s and an a our soci and aking, ns certainty”. hange promise to be with “full own m established huma impact c point c y, if uneven on to is insufficient enithislimatefor insurers to actly, it. The data anthropog at c c•ontinue , hensivel d re mi igate • nNo tinsurer covers gradualmp sea level or s felt co change inthat provide other U will be s hat impacts of. global ystem The s warming.an activities, i acts t p imanticipated pulations um all po rest of h e across g with th on rance, al insu .” sity lnerable e Univer vu uari n, Macq Phela“Climate change: a catalyst for extreme weather”, 15 April 2013 Insurance Liam News, Liam Phelan, Macquarie University, “The relationship between anthropogenic climate change and the insurance system: Imperatives, options and reflections on theory”, 4 Aug 2010 (PhD Thesis) 169
  • 170. What are insurers and others saying? Paul Mahony 2013 rald rning He Insurance Council of Australia in e Sydney Mo Climate relation to versity. n in Th la Uni iam Phe Decade: Extreme wcastle Commission’sfrom L Criticaldies at Ne “The stu ments nmental rther com Reporto(Insurance News, 15 April, 2013) Fu Weather”r in envir ture ding while lec ks - inclu r ris r weathe nd fo uranceonly.ely affordable, a ins • ICA has shown n mean interest” to bar er ca“polite rdable ge for weath e an •. climate chlook ijustfroneaor two able . . .ahead. c ide to future Insurers - sh fts om ffo ur years insuran “. . u ns nts reliable gweather ineeds ome uni eme eve t bec re ex•r Link between climate change andaextreme including ts the risks gh past events a th ( ventually established with “full lcertainty”. Ear is familiar to s the ou e to be tes as th ng a ate pera true as o tate, one that ed ains sactclim it. risks o datahis insufficient atable s • The ce. T is rem rrently st this pointtory. insurers au veon for Human-c to n s u ati ly experie s in its c gradual uman hi in rhaps comparothers tay covers of h change, pesea level or rhap l No ) s c•imateinsurer h the course rth pe ate of warming.ative - and hroug impactshofsglobal Ea t anticipated shifting t e t ltern humans s into an a ean tate change m rom its familiar s y, f .” suddenl nt - state fere ically dif rad Insurance News, “Climate change: a catalyst for extreme weather”, 15 April 2013 Liam Phelan, “Cuts in emissions are at a premium”, The Age, 25 Jan 2011, http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/society-andculture/cuts-in-emissions-are-at-a-premium-20110124-1a2ul.html 170
  • 171. Findings of Senate Enquiry “Recent trends in and preparedness for extreme weather events”, August 2013 Paul Mahony 2013 Extreme weather events are likely to increase in frequency and will potentially intensify in the future as a result of climate change. Hannam, P., “Extreme weather likely to increase and intensify, report finds”, The Sydney Morning Herald, 7 Aug 2013, 171 http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/extreme-weather-likely-to-increase-and-intensify-report-finds-20130807-2rggq.html
  • 172. Standard Flood Definition - Australia “The covering of normally dry land by water that has escaped or been released from the normal confines of: any lake, or any river, creek or other natural watercourse, whether or not altered or modified; or any reservoir, canal, or dam.” Applies to: home building and home contents; small business; and strata title insurance contracts. Transition period of two years from 18th June, 2012. Paul Mahony 2013 If insurers provide flood coverage, they are required to use the new definition. Press Release No. 030 (undated) from Minister for Financial Services & Superannuation, http://ministers.treasury.gov.au/DisplayDocs.aspx?doc=pressreleases/2012/030.htm&pageID=&min=brs&Year=2012&DocType=0 and Insurance News “Flood definition becomes law”, 18th June, 2012, http://insurancenews.com.au/local/flood-definition-becomes-law 172
  • 173. Most American insurers are unprepared
  • 174. Paul Mahony 2013 Few American insurers ready for climate change 174
  • 175. Few American insurers ready for climate change Paul Mahony 2013 Climate risk survey of 184 American insurance companies in the Property and Casualty; Life and Annuity; and Health sectors conducted by insurance regulators in California, New York and Washington, and reported by sustainability advocacy group Ceres. “Insurer Climate Risk Disclosure Survey 2012”, Ceres, March 2013, http://www.ceres.org/resources/reports/naic-report/view The Age, 8 March 2013, “Few insurers prepared for climate change: Ceres”, http://www.theage.com.au/business/carbon-economy/few-insurersprepared-for-climate-change-ceres-20130308-2fpbw.html (From Bloomberg) 175 Mark A. Hoffman, “Insurance industry has made 'uneven' response to climate risks: Ceres”, Business Insurance, 7 March 2013, http://www.businessinsurance.com/article/20130307/NEWS04/130309871#full_story