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THE IMPACT OF INNOVATION
!
!
!
PAUL PAPADIMITRIOU — STARTUP ADDVENTURE — KIEV, UKRAINE — DECEMBER 2013
INNOVATION

http://www.flickr.com/photos/sudhamshu/3202963823/sizes/l/
DISRUPTION

http://www.flickr.com/photos/sudhamshu/3202963823/sizes/l/
HOW
INNOVATION
IS BORN
http://www.flickr.com/photos/theqspeaks/6240575050/sizes/l/
HOW
DISRUPTION
HAPPENS
http://www.flickr.com/photos/theqspeaks/6240575050/sizes/l/
1994
WEB

http://www.flickr.com/photos/theqspeaks/6243039829/sizes/l/
1999
MOBILE

http://www.flickr.com/photos/theqspeaks/6243039829/sizes/l/
2008
SMARTPHONES

http://www.flickr.com/photos/theqspeaks/6243039829/sizes/l/
2013
THE TIPPING POINT

http://www.flickr.com/photos/theqspeaks/6243039829/sizes/l/
WHAT DRIVES
HUMANS?
HOPE & FEAR

http://www.flickr.com/photos/tamaar/419205093/sizes/l/
WHAT DRIVES
BUSINESSES?
HOPE & FEAR
(AT A SLOWER PACE)
http://www.flickr.com/photos/tamaar/419205093/sizes/l/
INNOVATION
IS CREATED BY
HOPE & FEAR

http://www.flickr.com/photos/tamaar/419205093/sizes/l/
HOPE & FEAR
AUGMENTED BY
MASS NETWORKS
http://www.flickr.com/photos/tamaar/419205093/sizes/l/
MASS NETWORKS
ALLOW FOR VELOCITY & REACH
OF HOPE & FEAR
http://www.flickr.com/photos/tamaar/419205093/sizes/l/
INNOVATION IS A
DISAPPEARANCE GAME

http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
INNOVATION
BECOMES OBSOLETE

http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
INNOVATION
DISAPPEARS IN THE
BACKGROUND
http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
DISRUPTION IS A
DELFATION GAME

http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
DISRUPTION THROUGH
FALLING PRICES
http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
INCUMBENTS ARE ADDICTED
TO LARGE MARGINS
http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
NEW ENTRANTS ARE
DRAMATICALLY LOWERING
PRICE
http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
THINK
YOUTUBE V. TELEVISION

http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
YOUTUBE PROVIDES
MASS SCALE
DRAMATICALLY LOWER PRICE
http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
TV
IS ADDICTED TO
LARGE MARGINS
http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
NEW ENTRANTS ARE
DRAMATICALLY LOWERING
PRICE
AT MASS SCALE

http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
TIPPING POINT DRIVER #1:
THE MASS SCALE OF SOCIAL
NETWORKS
http://www.flickr.com/photos/almostinfamous/5063718679/sizes/l/
PEOPLE ONLINE
5000000000

2029000000
4400000

1995
http://www.flickr.com/photos/gilest/78207447/sizes/l/
Source: World Bank

41100000

200

101900000 201900000

2005

2010

2012

2020
1/3
OF THE WORLD
http://www.flickr.com/photos/gilest/78207447/sizes/l/
FACEBOOK
>1,000,000,000
USERS
http://www.flickr.com/photos/gilest/78207447/sizes/l/
YOUTUBE
>1,000,000,000
UNIQUES/MONTH
http://www.flickr.com/photos/gilest/78207447/sizes/l/
GLOBALIZATION
US

World

Google
MS
FB
Yahoo
0
http://www.flickr.com/photos/gilest/78207447/sizes/l/
Source: Comscore Global 2013

350

700

1050

1400
TIPPING POINT DRIVER #2:
THE MASS GLOBALIZATION OF
SOCIAL NETWORKS
http://www.flickr.com/photos/almostinfamous/5063718679/sizes/l/
#REVOLUTIONS

http://www.flickr.com/photos/pedromourapinheiro/2559028008/sizes/l/
NETWORKS
ENABLE COMMUNITIES

http://www.flickr.com/photos/pedromourapinheiro/2559028008/sizes/l/
NETWORKS
ENABLE TRUST

http://www.flickr.com/photos/pedromourapinheiro/2559028008/sizes/l/
NETWORKS
ENABLE TRANSPARENCY

http://www.flickr.com/photos/pedromourapinheiro/2559028008/sizes/l/
NETWORKS
ARE UTILITIES

http://www.flickr.com/photos/pedromourapinheiro/2559028008/sizes/l/
TIPPING POINT DRIVER #3:
THE MATURITY OF TRUSTENABLING SOCIAL NETWORKS
http://www.flickr.com/photos/almostinfamous/5063718679/sizes/l/
MASS SCALE
PCs

Smartphones & tablets

2004

2006

1500
1250
1000
750
500
250
0

2000

http://www.flickr.com/photos/anantns/7979597377/sizes/l/
Source: Benedict Evans, Mobile is Eating the World

2002

2008

2010

2012
2014 SCALE
2 BILLION SMARTPHONES

http://www.flickr.com/photos/anantns/7979597377/sizes/l/
2014 SCALE
2 BILLION SMARTPHONES
1 BILLION MOBILE ONLY
http://www.flickr.com/photos/anantns/7979597377/sizes/l/
MASS SCALE
2012
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0

http://www.flickr.com/photos/anantns/7979597377/sizes/l/
Source: Benedict Evans, Mobile is Eating the World

Population

Mobile

2017

Smartphone

PC

Tablets
MASS SCALE
GLOBAL REVENUE
1,250
1,000
750
500
250
0

http://www.flickr.com/photos/anantns/7979597377/sizes/l/
Source: Benedict Evans, Mobile is Eating the World

FB

E-ADS

APPLE

PCs

ADS

MOBILE N.
DISRUPTIVE SCALE
SMS 20BN/DAY
WHAT’S APP 14BN/DAY
http://www.flickr.com/photos/anantns/7979597377/sizes/l/
DISRUPTIVE SCALE
2013: 5TR MESSAGES
2014: 25TR MESSAGES
http://www.flickr.com/photos/anantns/7979597377/sizes/l/
DISRUPTIVE SCALE
MAU
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0

http://www.flickr.com/photos/anantns/7979597377/sizes/l/
Source: Benedict Evans, Mobile is Eating the World

INSTAGRAM

LINE

TWITTER

WECHAT

WHATSAPP

FB
DISRUPTIVE SCALE
FACEBOOK 350M PICS/DAY
WHAT’S APP 400M PICS/DAY
http://www.flickr.com/photos/anantns/7979597377/sizes/l/
DISRUPTIVE SCALE
WHAT’S APP IS 45 PEOPLE
http://www.flickr.com/photos/anantns/7979597377/sizes/l/
DISRUPTIVE SCALE
MOBILE FIRST PLAYERS
LINE, WHAT’S APP, WECHAT,
KAKAOTALK, …
http://www.flickr.com/photos/anantns/7979597377/sizes/l/
Devices/Users (MM, log scale)

1950

PLATFORM SHIFT
WEB

PC

1960

1970
MINICOMPUTER

MAINFRAME

Source: Kleiner, Perkins, Caufield and Buyers

1980

MOBILE

10B+

1B

100M

1990

10M

1M

BIGGEST EVER

2000

2010
71%
LITERATE PEOPLE WILL HAVE A
SMARTPHONE IN 2017

http://www.flickr.com/photos/anantns/7979597377/sizes/l/
Source: Benedict Evans, Mobile is Eating the World
TIPPING POINT DRIVER #4:
THE UNPRECEDENTED
EXPLOSION OF MOBILE
http://www.flickr.com/photos/almostinfamous/5063718679/sizes/l/
JOBS #FAIL
UNEMPLOYMENT
UNDER-EMPLOYMENT


http://www.flickr.com/photos/yo_tuco/3873775866/sizes/o/
JOBS #FAIL
POST-CRISIS GDP RECOVERY

NOT JOBS RECOVERY


http://www.flickr.com/photos/yo_tuco/3873775866/sizes/o/
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT
GREECE: 55% 

SPAIN: 53%

EU: 22.7%
UKRAINE: 18.6%

http://www.flickr.com/photos/yo_tuco/3873775866/sizes/o/
Source: OECD, ILO
WOMEN WORKFORCE
1,000,000,000
IN THE NEXT 10 YEARS
http://www.flickr.com/photos/yo_tuco/3873775866/sizes/o/
Source: OECD, ILO
TIPPING POINT DRIVER #5:
THE NEW RULES OF GLOBAL
WORKFORCE ECONOMICS
http://www.flickr.com/photos/almostinfamous/5063718679/sizes/l/
OLD GATE KEEPERS
GOVERNMENTS
UNIVERSITIES
LOBBIES, UNIONS
CORPORATIONS
FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
http://www.flickr.com/photos/somerandomdude/430135303/sizes/l/
UNSUSTAINABLE
PROTECTIONISM

http://www.flickr.com/photos/somerandomdude/430135303/sizes/l/
THE OLD GATEKEEPERS CAN’T
PROVIDE FOR THE PEOPLE
ANYMORE
http://www.flickr.com/photos/somerandomdude/430135303/sizes/l/
TOP DOWN ORGANIZATIONS
CAN’T KEEP UP

http://www.flickr.com/photos/somerandomdude/430135303/sizes/l/
THE PEOPLE SEE IT BLATANTLY
THROUGH NETWORKS

http://www.flickr.com/photos/somerandomdude/430135303/sizes/l/
TIPPING POINT DRIVER #6:
THE INADEQUACY OF TOPDOWN ORGANIZATIONS
http://www.flickr.com/photos/almostinfamous/5063718679/sizes/l/
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

http://www.flickr.com/photos/michmutters/8165243392/sizes/l/
#1 EMERGING IDENTITIES

http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabok/6029437743/sizes/l/
NEW SELF

http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabok/6029437743/sizes/l/
FROM TOP-DOWN
TO
P2P IDENTITIES
http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabok/6029437743/sizes/l/
TRIBALISM
DIFFERENTIATED LIVING

NEW GROUPS DETERMINATION

SHARED ACTUALIZATION

http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabok/6029437743/sizes/l/
NOMADISM
MOBILITY
AUGMENTED LIVING


http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabok/6029437743/sizes/l/
SINGULARISM
SELF-CONSTRUCT
NODAL LIVING


http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabok/6029437743/sizes/l/
NEW IDENTITIES

http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabok/6029437743/sizes/l/
NEW CONSUMERS

http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabok/6029437743/sizes/l/
EMPOWERED
AWARE

http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabok/6029437743/sizes/l/
LOOKING FOR

http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabok/6029437743/sizes/l/
MEANING
ENGAGEMENT
CONVENIENCE
PERSONALIZATION
http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabok/6029437743/sizes/l/
NOT DEFINED BY
THINGS
http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabok/6029437743/sizes/l/
NOT BUYING
THINGS
http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabok/6029437743/sizes/l/
DEFINED BY ACCESS TO
EXPERIENCES
http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabok/6029437743/sizes/l/
BUYING
EXPERIENCES
http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabok/6029437743/sizes/l/
SHARING
EXPERIENCES
http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabok/6029437743/sizes/l/
#2 EMERGING MODELS

http://www.flickr.com/photos/12184548@N02/1428798524/sizes/l/
GLOBAL COMMUNITIES
TWITTER
FACEBOOK
DEVIANTART

http://www.flickr.com/photos/12184548@N02/1428798524/sizes/l/
COMMUNITIES TAUGHT US
TRUST

http://www.flickr.com/photos/ishmaelo/38778306/sizes/l/
TRANSPARENCY
OPENNESS

http://www.flickr.com/photos/ishmaelo/38778306/sizes/l/
WE’RE NOW USING THIS TRUST
TO PROVIDE FOR OURSELVES

http://www.flickr.com/photos/ishmaelo/38778306/sizes/l/
GLOBAL HUMAN CAPITAL
ODESK
ELANCE

http://www.flickr.com/photos/12184548@N02/1428798524/sizes/l/
GLOBAL P2P MARKETPLACES
AIRBNB
RELAYRIDES
LENDINGCLUB
ANGELIST

UDEMY
COOKISTO
http://www.flickr.com/photos/12184548@N02/1428798524/sizes/l/
#3 EMERGING NODES

http://www.flickr.com/photos/pedromourapinheiro/2559028008/sizes/l/
CITIES ARE
AT THE CENTER OF
INNOVATION
http://www.flickr.com/photos/pedromourapinheiro/2559028008/sizes/l/
SUPER-LINEARITY

http://www.flickr.com/photos/pedromourapinheiro/2559028008/sizes/l/
Source: MIT
THE INTERNET
IS A CITY

http://www.flickr.com/photos/pedromourapinheiro/2559028008/sizes/l/
A GLOCAL
CITY
http://www.flickr.com/photos/pedromourapinheiro/2559028008/sizes/l/
THE INTERNET
AT THE CENTER OF
INNOVATION
http://www.flickr.com/photos/pedromourapinheiro/2559028008/sizes/l/
#4 EMERGING MARKETS

http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
INCUMBENTS
ARE ADDICTED TO
LARGE MARGINS
http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
THINK
EMERGING V. INDUSTRIALIZED

http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
EMERGING MARKETS PROVIDE
MASS SCALE
DRAMATICALLY LOWER PRICE
http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
EMERGING MARKETS PROVIDE
MASS WORKFORCE
DRAMATICALLY LOWER PRICE
http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
THE “WEST”
IS ADDICTED TO
LARGE MARGINS
http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
WE HAD IT
TOO GOOD

http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
BUILT ON
ABUNDANCE OF RESOURCES

http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
ABUNDANCE OF
JOBS
MONEY, RAW MATERIALS,…
http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
THIS IS GONE

http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
WE ARE BEING DISRUPTED

http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
WE ARE BEING DISRUPTED
BY EMERGING MARKETS
http://www.flickr.com/photos/annamagal/4697076085/sizes/l/
EMERGING MARKETS
ALWAYS DEALT
WITH LIMITED RESOURCES
http://www.flickr.com/photos/michmutters/8165243392/sizes/l/
JOBS WERE HARDER TO GET
AND PEOPLE DEALT
WITH LIMITED RESOURCES
http://www.flickr.com/photos/michmutters/8165243392/sizes/l/
WITH LIMITED RESOURCES
COMES NO CHOICE
BUT TO ACCELERATE
http://www.flickr.com/photos/michmutters/8165243392/sizes/l/
ACCELERATE
BREAKING CONVENTIONS

http://www.flickr.com/photos/michmutters/8165243392/sizes/l/
ACCELERATE
IDEAS

http://www.flickr.com/photos/michmutters/8165243392/sizes/l/
IDEAS
REPLICATION
http://www.flickr.com/photos/michmutters/8165243392/sizes/l/
ORIGINAL?

http://www.flickr.com/photos/michmutters/8165243392/sizes/l/ and http://www.flickr.com/photos/koreanet/8559421022/sizes/l
HATING COPY
IS INSANITY
http://www.flickr.com/photos/michmutters/8165243392/sizes/l/
IDEAS
V. EXECUTION
http://www.flickr.com/photos/michmutters/8165243392/sizes/l/
ADAPT
TO LIMITED RESOURCES
http://www.flickr.com/photos/michmutters/8165243392/sizes/l/
EMERGING CHARACTERISTICS
Attributes

Performance

Characteristics

Low-low-end

Low-end

Mid-end

High-end

Simplicity

Simple

Complex

Robustness

Robust/maintenance-friendly

Fragile/laborious to maintain

Economies of scale

High volume

Pricing

Low price

http://www.flickr.com/photos/michmutters/8165243392/sizes/l/
Source: Roland Berger

High to medium volume Medium to low volume

Medium price

High price

Low volume

Premium price
NOT RICH?
NOT ALWAYS ON?
NOT TECH SAVVY?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/michmutters/8165243392/sizes/l/
DIFFERENT MODEL

http://www.flickr.com/photos/michmutters/8165243392/sizes/l/
CONSTRAINED MODEL

http://www.flickr.com/photos/michmutters/8165243392/sizes/l/
EFFICIENT MODEL

http://www.flickr.com/photos/michmutters/8165243392/sizes/l/
INNOVATION OUTPUT
INDUS

EMERGING

80
75

69

60
40
25

20
0

http://www.flickr.com/photos/michmutters/8165243392/sizes/l/

31

2008

2012
REPLICABLE MODEL
ACROSS CULTURES
http://www.flickr.com/photos/michmutters/8165243392/sizes/l/
RADICAL MODEL

http://www.flickr.com/photos/michmutters/8165243392/sizes/l/
THE INTERNET IS A GLOBAL
AND FREE AGORA

http://www.flickr.com/photos/mlee/965844752/sizes/o/
IT LIBERATES A NEW SUPPLY OF
IDEAS, PEOPLE, GOODS &
SERVICES
http://www.flickr.com/photos/mlee/965844752/sizes/o/
A GLOBAL, NODAL, FREE &
DEMOCRATIC AGORA

http://www.flickr.com/photos/mlee/965844752/sizes/o/
CONSTANTLY MAINTAINING
DEFLATION & SCALE

http://www.flickr.com/photos/mlee/965844752/sizes/o/
A DISRUPTIVE AGORA

http://www.flickr.com/photos/mlee/965844752/sizes/o/
IT’S UP TO YOU TO LIBERATE AND
DISRUPT YOURSELVES

http://www.flickr.com/photos/mlee/965844752/sizes/o/
THANK YOU
@PAPADIMITRIOU
PAPADIMITRIOU.CO
http://www.flickr.com/photos/casawood/2337512390/sizes/l/

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