REAL TIME IS NOW
The 2008 and 2012 US Election cycles set the stage for a transformation in how citizens engage
and want to be engaged by their leaders. It also saw a diametrical shift in how the media and
citizens carry influence and sway in matters of national and global importance
Consider this your VIP primer on the changing state of Social Media affairs
On a Global Basis
Let’s go all the way back to the beginning of 2016 when
Donald Trump was still facing Ted Cruz in a US Presidential
Race that painted Hillary Clinton as the heir apparent.
The RNC nomination of Trump and the DNC selection of
Clinton set off a digital war unprecedented in scope and
expense in recent time.
Trump won with a core staff of 85 vs. Hillary’s 600+ and a
capital outlay of $1 Billion to Trump’s $500 Million.
Real Time Media played a role unprecedented in History.
SPENDTraditional Marketing Logic Dictates that Spend, whether programmatic, influencer,
social or mobile will drive more engagement and drive more yield. However
despite outspending Trump on PACs and even in odd corners of the internet like
“4chan trolling” spend – the brand message didn’t take. So what happened?
Social Media drove the conversation in the 2016 US election; has already impacted
the Italian Election (Renzi out) and will play a role in voter education, sentiment and
influence across the EU in 2017. FB SettopTV and VR will accelerate this through
Facebook / Twitter / Reddit
In the US, 50% of the Population earns $50,000 or less per annum. In the
Netherlands a family of four subsists on ~2500 Euro a month. In Austria about 1300
Euro. These market factors require political responses that both Nations and
Companies are unprepared for.
Shifting Economics Globally
Ethics concerns; a new Print then Retract strategy by Papers, “Fake News” and
Alternative fact arguments have undermined traditional journalism. Real Time is
making this more complicated with “first to” information having impacts on social
movements and corporate bottom lines (e.g. Uber:Lyft)
Journalism in the Crossfire
Journalists, Older Polling Models and Predictive Analytics fails like 538 giving
Trump a 3% chance of Winning are emblematic of the Data Silo issue in
Companies that cannot respond to rapid Populist movements. Movements that
might be more easily understood as a persistent transformation of Flashmobs –
now with messaging.
The Rise of Populist Movements and Data Silos
The Race heats up and Spend goes
While Trump drove facetime with Americans, Hillary’s
campaign focused on traditional engagement of known
democratic strong holds. Fundraising became key with
Hillary focusing on traditional donors and Trump and Bernie
moving to smaller donations and largescale social media
Key points: Social, Mobile and Fundraising spend.
Messaging and connection with existing audiences versus
new audiences (voters).
RNC and DNC Conventions
Trump and Hillary cinch the nominations for the RNC and
DNC, respectively. Trump continues to build a syndicated
network of support across Social Networks (Syndicated
nodes of Trump pages vs. Clusters of Pantsuit nation
Key Points: Messaging shifts and How Digital Tribes
(voters) were organized on either side. Organic vs.
TIMELINE OF EVENTS
While the historical impacts of the 16-way Republican race to the nomination and the Sanders/Clinton controversies are worth
discussion, the Big Data Elements came into play after the Nominations. What’s notable is the story of how politics, data and
marketing played out at scale across mutual allegations and scandal fit for a telenovela.
#Wienergate, Gold Star Family, Trump
Foreign Policy Trip
Anthony Wiener, former congressman and defamed
husband of Clinton right-hand Huma Abedin is caught in
another sexting scandal and inadvertently leaks semi-
classified data from his wife’s phone. Trump impresses on a
trip to meet Mexico’s Nieto, but causes Imbroglio with
Hilary’s Gold Star family
Key Points: Social Sentiment shifts and impact to external
polls while internal polls stayed constant.
A Basket of “Deplorables”, Pantsuit
Nation, Health Issues
Clinton’s categorization of all Trump supporters as
Deplorables catapults Trump to 7% leads in the polls while
Hillary’s Pantsuit Nation clusters on FB. Trump continues to
drive engagement and social support at rallies and Clinton
faces heath questions from collapsing at the 9/11 memorial.
#Pussygate and More leaked Emails
The last 6 weeks of the campaign cycle saw almost daily
swings in voter sentiment – Personal character issues
dominated Democratic arguments against Trump, while
TRUST, Policy, propriety and accountability became the
arguments against Clinton.
US County and Electoral Win
Many went to bed early on November 8th missing the 3:00
AM EST call of Pennsylvania, giving Trump the win. Many
postmortems have been done to date – but let’s take a look
at how the data got us here.
Trust is the “social bedrock” that sets the stage for
engagement and proliferation. MAGA vs. I’m with Her played
a special vector dynamic in the election transcended
traditional brand dynamics.
Social Messaging and Trust
Big Data is becoming more commonplace day by day – it’s
the way companies, organizations and countries can analyze
use, popularity and engagement to see what, works, what
doesn’t and make better Executive decisions.
Traditional modeling has given way to 3D plotting and
graphical mapping of relationships across large groups – this
gives us the ability to map patterns and insights we would
Rallies and Events provide the perfect cross-social platform
for on the fence voter engagement (Sort Democrats /
Independents) who allowed for WOM influencing to drive
engagement shifts and ultimately influence voters or
Engagement, Facetime and Social Pressure
Social Intelligence and Engagement have become bigger predictors of outcomes as Social Media
has become part of our daily lives. Social Physics is the Big Data harnessing of that information to
help understand decision making and future outcomes
A Post-Mortem campaign analysis conducted by SI with Data Vendors, Ad and Mobile
Platforms and Programmatic Spend demonstrated the value of Big Data and Social Physics
impacts within the overall campaign process that led to a win.
But what drove this?
Meet Project Alamo – Alamo was potentially the first distributed system to model sentiment
within a modern election process. By taking known voter data and combining it with models
that were executed by a number of internal teams and vendors – the campaign was able to
identify cases where it was 62% likely that a voter would lean Trump – by focusing social
physics nudges through influencers, events and time-identified targeting and engagement – a
win was achieved.
Beyond Alamo and the election, we are living events and consuming content in
real-time at the speed of life. What we used to have days to process is now
reacted to in hours and minutes. Part of this is the logical outcome of Societal
Parity with Moore’s Law (Culture now moves at computing speeds) – the rest is the
global Culture Shift that the election provided
Real Time Events have Real Time Impacts and Results
The development of massive social audiences by both the Trump and Clinton camps has led to a
current state where the masses are driving the conversation response.
Following President Trump’s issuance of an Executive Order limiting immigration and access to the
US from emigres and visa holders from 7 countries with active terror issues, war or unstable
documentation processes – the response from the Social Left was swift. When companies stepped
into the fray – something unprecedented happens. We get the first “Social Collapse Event”
With Uber, their CEO’s political aligning with the new administration plus a single tweet presented
catastrophic challenges when a local cultural idiom (here: don’t mess with NYC Cabbies stands on
Human Rights) is violated.Source: Twitter, The Guardian
Social Sharing and the Social Physics of how
consumers engage has led to Economy shifting
events that can and will change how you, your
business, your country and your social groups
deal with change.
The Real Time Presidency will be felt in the Brexit, upcoming EU elections and Brands the world over, as Real Time catches up
across the globe, Nations and Brands will be forced to face similar issues on an international, national, state or local level.
REAL TIME OUTCOMES
Crowdsourced Activism Event Activism
Source: Twitter, Facebook
Lyft Jumped into the discussion announcing a
donation of $1 Million to the ACLU and garnering
a massive switch and rose to #4 in the Apple App
Uber countered with a $3 Million commitment –
which went largely ignored due to the impact of
backlash – subsequently losing 200k+
Finally, keep in mind that real-time Likes and
dislikes are proving to have more value in
understanding audiences and sentiment when
evaluated with complimentary data.
As Marketers and Executives – we need to keep in mind that the impacts to
Europe are about to come. Populists and Progressives will continue to clash with
the impacts moving to real time – creating real time impacts and opportunities to
Brands, Ideas and Movements that get caught in the fray.
We are officially in a Real Time Marketing Economy.
Source: Twitter, The Guardian
Social has fully matured with Video and VR the next big
frontiers for engagement. As Brands, Companies, Political
Parties and States get drawn in, Big Data and Social
Physics can set the path to success in difficult times.
Plan for uncertainty;
prepare for eventuality
and make Data your
toolkit for Social and
PR in the Future.”
— Oz Sultan