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Decision Making Based on Machine Learning
at .
Jesper Richter-Reichhelm (@jrirei)
In the beginning there was void and every customer was
seeing the same version of the website.
But then came along a Product manager and spoke:
“What is this?
I need to be able to test variants of our products.
I will introduce something!”
And she took an off-the-shelf solution and now every
customer could see a different version of the website.
And after it was done she was happy and

life was good.
But then came along a Data Scientist and spoke:
“What is this?
I need to be able to add complex algorithms

to steer business processes.
I will take this and make it better!”
And he hacked together wrote a complex decision making
system that he would call Smart Gateway because it could
steer processes throughout all the company.
And after it was done both were happy and

life was good.
But then came along a Software Engineer and spoke:
“What is this?
If there would come just one strong wind,

everything would fall down and crash.
I will take this and make it better!”
And he would take the Smart Gateway and rewrite it from
scratch refactor it a bit to make it production ready.
And after it was done all three were happy and

life was good.
But then all three looked at the thing that they have
created together and spoke:
“What is this?
How did this become something so much more powerful

than what we set out to do in the first place?”
“Actually we have truly build a …”
Relevant fashion for men
Day 1
Day 1 Day 3
Day 1 Day 3 Day 4
Day 1 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5
Customer journey is quite “long”
Day 1 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 19
2-3 weeks to know what we’ve sold
Order economics demand complex tradeoffs
Cart Cost
Goods kept
Returned
Order economics demand complex tradeoffs
Cart Cost
operational profit
Goods kept
Buying
Logistics
Service
Other
Science

=

Data & Tech
Art

=

Stylist team
King

=

Customer
Science

=

Data & Tech
Art

=

Stylist team
Cart Cost
Data Driven Vision
AB Tests
Chapter 1 driven by Product
AB Tests with an external service
AB Tests with an external service
Canary testing with nginx
Canary testing with nginx
Problem: Parallel experiments with canary tests
A B
Problem: Parallel experiments with canary tests
AB BAAA BB
Problem: External tool can only track conversion
Problem: External tool can only track conversion
Day 1 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 19
2-3 weeks to know what we’ve sold
Problem: External tool does not support decision points
Cart Cost
operational profit
Goods kept
Buying
Logistics
Service
Other
Problem: External tool does not support decision points
Smart Gateway
Chapter 2 driven by Data Science
Goals
• Integration with IT platform
• Decision Points yield persistent results
• Complex decision making logic to allow process steering
• Configurable for flexibility
Smart Gateway is integrated in platform
Service
Service Smart Gateway
Service
REST
Black Box
Smart Gateways have persistence
Service
Service Smart Gateway
Service
Black Box
SQL
Smart Gateways are “smart”
• Data Scientists create an algorithm, called Decider
• Algorithm can have DWH access
• Algorithm is packed in a Docker container and listens to http calls
Smart Gateways are “smart”
Service
Service Smart Gateway
Service
Black Box
SQL
Smart Gateways are “smart”
Service
Service Smart Gateway
Service
Decider
Decider
Decider
DWH
http
SQL
Smart Gateways are configurable
• Sampling: routing of traffic to experiments
• Experiments can opt in independently
• Experiments define groups (random distribution)
• Groups map to a Decider
Smart Gateways are configurable
Decider
Decider
Decider
Decider
Decider
Decider
Sampling
Experiment
Experiment
25%
50% of “DE”
default
“A”
“B”
Age < 30 ? “A” : “B”
Age < 35 ? “A” : “B”
<something smart>
<some default>
50%
50%
50%
30%
20%
Problem: Data is not real time and can’t be consistent
Service
Service Smart Gateway
Service
Decider
Decider
Decider
DWH
data import
SQL
Problem: One single point of failure
Service
Service Smart Gateway
Service
Decider
Decider
Decider
DWH
SQL
all on one host
default

decision
Smart Gateway v2
Chapter 3 driven by IT
Goals
• Separation of concerns
• Data access is real time
• Production ready setup
Created a new team to shift responsibilities
Stylist Support
Logistics Support
Web
Data / ML
BI
Created a new team to shift responsibilities
Stylist Support
Logistics Support
Web
Data Delivery Data / ML
BI
Created a new team to shift responsibilities
Service
Service Smart Gateway
Service
Decider
Decider
Decider
DWH
SQL
Configuration is now DB based
• It simply got too big
• Decision Point
• n Experiments per Decision Point
• n Deciders per Experiment
• REST API to change config on the fly
Smart Gateways do “data enrichment”
• Deciders become pure functions
• Before sampling of traffic, call is enriched with data
• Enrichment is configurable
• Enriched data can be used to decide if experiments “opt in”
Smart Gateways now do “data enrichment”
Enrichment Sampling Experiment
Decider
Decider
DeciderRetrieve data:
• REST call
• constant value
• LocalStore (K/V)
• JS Script
Smart Gateways become production ready
• Professional Docker setup
• Orchestrating Docker containers via Kubernetes
Decider
Decider
Decider
Smart Gateway
Smart Gateways become production ready
Service
Service Smart Gateway
Service
Decider
Decider
Decider
SQL
Service
Service
SQL Redis
Data Job
Example use cases
• AB testing
• Decision Points
• User discrimination to prepayment
• … and many more
• Also very nice: shadow mode
Smart Gateways
Service
Service Smart GatewaySmart Gateway
Service
DeciderDecider
DeciderDecider
DeciderDecider
Service
Service
RedisSQL
Data Job
Smart Gateways are a runtime environment for pure functions
Service
Service Smart GatewaySmart Gateway
Service
Decider𝛌
Decider𝛌
Decider𝛌
Service
Service
RedisSQL
Data Job
Delivery platform for pure functions
Chapter 4 driven by Product, Data Science, and IT
Our own delivery platform for algorithms
Example 1: Supporting our stylists in decision making
Filters…
Customer
Info
Order /
Basket
Available Stock
• For every order
• For every article in stock
• Calculate a score how likely
customer is to keep this article
• Score is used to encourage or
discourage stylist to pick an article
Example 2: Scanning return slips
• External partner would take too
long
• Implemented algorithm on our own
• Every scan is handled via Smart
Gateway
• Information on follow on orders
is now available
Filters…
Customer
Info
Order /
Basket
Available Stock
Smart Gateway
120 sec execution time3 MB data (input / output)
Smart Gateway became asynchronous (if necessary)
Service
Service Smart GatewaySmart Gateway
Service
Decider𝛌
Decider𝛌
Decider𝛌
Service
Service
RedisSQL
Data Job
AWESOME
Conclusion
By me
But then all three looked at the thing that they have
created together and spoke:
“What is this?
How did this become something so much more powerful

than what we set out to do in the first place?”
“Actually we have truly build a system that can run

just any pure function.
AB tests and process steering are just the beginning.
Maybe speech recognition is next. Or maybe…”
With that they started to brainstorm all the cool things
they could do in the future.
Time and the next Hackathon will tell

what they made out of it.
And maybe I can come back next year

to tell you all about it.
The End
Questions?
Jesper Richter-Reichhelm (@jrirei)

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Decision Making based on Machine Learning at Outfittery (W-JAX 2017)

  • 1. Decision Making Based on Machine Learning at . Jesper Richter-Reichhelm (@jrirei)
  • 2. In the beginning there was void and every customer was seeing the same version of the website.
  • 3. But then came along a Product manager and spoke:
  • 4. “What is this? I need to be able to test variants of our products. I will introduce something!”
  • 5. And she took an off-the-shelf solution and now every customer could see a different version of the website. And after it was done she was happy and
 life was good.
  • 6. But then came along a Data Scientist and spoke:
  • 7. “What is this? I need to be able to add complex algorithms
 to steer business processes. I will take this and make it better!”
  • 8. And he hacked together wrote a complex decision making system that he would call Smart Gateway because it could steer processes throughout all the company. And after it was done both were happy and
 life was good.
  • 9. But then came along a Software Engineer and spoke:
  • 10. “What is this? If there would come just one strong wind,
 everything would fall down and crash. I will take this and make it better!”
  • 11. And he would take the Smart Gateway and rewrite it from scratch refactor it a bit to make it production ready. And after it was done all three were happy and
 life was good.
  • 12. But then all three looked at the thing that they have created together and spoke:
  • 13. “What is this? How did this become something so much more powerful
 than what we set out to do in the first place?”
  • 14. “Actually we have truly build a …”
  • 16.
  • 17. Day 1
  • 19. Day 1 Day 3 Day 4
  • 20. Day 1 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5
  • 21. Customer journey is quite “long” Day 1 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 19 2-3 weeks to know what we’ve sold
  • 22. Order economics demand complex tradeoffs Cart Cost Goods kept Returned
  • 23. Order economics demand complex tradeoffs Cart Cost operational profit Goods kept Buying Logistics Service Other
  • 24. Science = Data & Tech Art = Stylist team King = Customer
  • 25. Science = Data & Tech Art = Stylist team Cart Cost Data Driven Vision
  • 26. AB Tests Chapter 1 driven by Product
  • 27. AB Tests with an external service
  • 28. AB Tests with an external service
  • 31.
  • 32. Problem: Parallel experiments with canary tests A B
  • 33. Problem: Parallel experiments with canary tests AB BAAA BB
  • 34. Problem: External tool can only track conversion
  • 35. Problem: External tool can only track conversion Day 1 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 19 2-3 weeks to know what we’ve sold
  • 36. Problem: External tool does not support decision points Cart Cost operational profit Goods kept Buying Logistics Service Other
  • 37. Problem: External tool does not support decision points
  • 38. Smart Gateway Chapter 2 driven by Data Science
  • 39. Goals • Integration with IT platform • Decision Points yield persistent results • Complex decision making logic to allow process steering • Configurable for flexibility
  • 40. Smart Gateway is integrated in platform Service Service Smart Gateway Service REST Black Box
  • 41. Smart Gateways have persistence Service Service Smart Gateway Service Black Box SQL
  • 42. Smart Gateways are “smart” • Data Scientists create an algorithm, called Decider • Algorithm can have DWH access • Algorithm is packed in a Docker container and listens to http calls
  • 43. Smart Gateways are “smart” Service Service Smart Gateway Service Black Box SQL
  • 44. Smart Gateways are “smart” Service Service Smart Gateway Service Decider Decider Decider DWH http SQL
  • 45. Smart Gateways are configurable • Sampling: routing of traffic to experiments • Experiments can opt in independently • Experiments define groups (random distribution) • Groups map to a Decider
  • 46. Smart Gateways are configurable Decider Decider Decider Decider Decider Decider Sampling Experiment Experiment 25% 50% of “DE” default “A” “B” Age < 30 ? “A” : “B” Age < 35 ? “A” : “B” <something smart> <some default> 50% 50% 50% 30% 20%
  • 47.
  • 48. Problem: Data is not real time and can’t be consistent Service Service Smart Gateway Service Decider Decider Decider DWH data import SQL
  • 49. Problem: One single point of failure Service Service Smart Gateway Service Decider Decider Decider DWH SQL all on one host default
 decision
  • 50. Smart Gateway v2 Chapter 3 driven by IT
  • 51. Goals • Separation of concerns • Data access is real time • Production ready setup
  • 52. Created a new team to shift responsibilities Stylist Support Logistics Support Web Data / ML BI
  • 53. Created a new team to shift responsibilities Stylist Support Logistics Support Web Data Delivery Data / ML BI
  • 54. Created a new team to shift responsibilities Service Service Smart Gateway Service Decider Decider Decider DWH SQL
  • 55. Configuration is now DB based • It simply got too big • Decision Point • n Experiments per Decision Point • n Deciders per Experiment • REST API to change config on the fly
  • 56. Smart Gateways do “data enrichment” • Deciders become pure functions • Before sampling of traffic, call is enriched with data • Enrichment is configurable • Enriched data can be used to decide if experiments “opt in”
  • 57. Smart Gateways now do “data enrichment” Enrichment Sampling Experiment Decider Decider DeciderRetrieve data: • REST call • constant value • LocalStore (K/V) • JS Script
  • 58. Smart Gateways become production ready • Professional Docker setup • Orchestrating Docker containers via Kubernetes
  • 59. Decider Decider Decider Smart Gateway Smart Gateways become production ready Service Service Smart Gateway Service Decider Decider Decider SQL Service Service SQL Redis Data Job
  • 60. Example use cases • AB testing • Decision Points • User discrimination to prepayment • … and many more • Also very nice: shadow mode
  • 61.
  • 62. Smart Gateways Service Service Smart GatewaySmart Gateway Service DeciderDecider DeciderDecider DeciderDecider Service Service RedisSQL Data Job
  • 63. Smart Gateways are a runtime environment for pure functions Service Service Smart GatewaySmart Gateway Service Decider𝛌 Decider𝛌 Decider𝛌 Service Service RedisSQL Data Job
  • 64. Delivery platform for pure functions Chapter 4 driven by Product, Data Science, and IT
  • 65. Our own delivery platform for algorithms
  • 66. Example 1: Supporting our stylists in decision making Filters… Customer Info Order / Basket Available Stock • For every order • For every article in stock • Calculate a score how likely customer is to keep this article • Score is used to encourage or discourage stylist to pick an article
  • 67. Example 2: Scanning return slips • External partner would take too long • Implemented algorithm on our own • Every scan is handled via Smart Gateway • Information on follow on orders is now available
  • 68. Filters… Customer Info Order / Basket Available Stock Smart Gateway 120 sec execution time3 MB data (input / output)
  • 69. Smart Gateway became asynchronous (if necessary) Service Service Smart GatewaySmart Gateway Service Decider𝛌 Decider𝛌 Decider𝛌 Service Service RedisSQL Data Job
  • 72. But then all three looked at the thing that they have created together and spoke:
  • 73. “What is this? How did this become something so much more powerful
 than what we set out to do in the first place?”
  • 74. “Actually we have truly build a system that can run
 just any pure function. AB tests and process steering are just the beginning. Maybe speech recognition is next. Or maybe…”
  • 75. With that they started to brainstorm all the cool things they could do in the future.
  • 76. Time and the next Hackathon will tell
 what they made out of it. And maybe I can come back next year
 to tell you all about it.