Salem and the Willamette Valley more broadly is booming. However the region is also experiencing growing pains. In particular housing affordability is worse today than a decade ago. The biggest challenge, both locally and nationally, is the lack of supply. These slides are a combination of two different Salem presentations the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis has given in recent months.

1. Salem Economic and
Housing Outlook
Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Josh Lehner
Disclaimer: The views expressed here are
solely those of the presenter, they do not
necessarily represent official State of
Oregon policies or positions.

2. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
2
The Valley is Booming

3. Oregon Office of
Economic Analysis
3
Labor Market is Tight

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Economic Analysis
4
Everybody has a Job Finally

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Economic Analysis
5
Full Employment Impact

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Economic Analysis
6

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Economic Analysis
7
Poverty Rates Falling

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Economic Analysis
8
Issue: Job Polarization

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Economic Analysis
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Polarization “Adjustment”

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Economic Analysis
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Outlook: Slower Growth

11. Housing

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Economic Analysis
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Statewide Challenge

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Economic Analysis
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Affordability
Quality
of Life
Economic
Strength
Policy
The Housing Trilemma
Cities face tradeoffs in terms of
housing affordability, job availability
and quality of life. Comparing the
100 largest MSAs in the country.
Source: David Albouy, BEA, BLS, Census,
IHS Global Insight, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
• Youngstown, OH
Detroit, MI •
Cincinnati, OH •
• Omaha, NE
Oklahoma City, OK •
Des Moines, IA•
Houston, TX •
• Atlanta, GA
• Phoenix, AZ
• Seattle, WA
Portland, OR •
San Francisco, CA •
Boise, ID •
• Austin, TXProvidence, RI •
Sacramento, CA •
Salem, OR •

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Economic Analysis
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Demand is Back

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Economic Analysis
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Aside: Salem’s Bright Future

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Economic Analysis
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Boomers Aging
In Place
Local Kids Aging
Into Adulthood
Mostly Migrants

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Economic Analysis
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There is No Supply

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Economic Analysis
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Prices and Econ 101

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Economic Analysis
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•Confidence
•Labor
•Lots
•Land Use
•Financing
Supply Constraints

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Economic Analysis
20
Labor Costs are High but
Not Showing Up in Wages

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Economic Analysis
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•Builder Confidence
•Labor Costs
•Finding Enough Workers
•Lot Supply
•Credit Availability
Lot Supply Constraints

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Economic Analysis
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Blame Idaho’s Land Use?

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Economic Analysis
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Finances Slowly Getting
A Little Better

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Economic Analysis
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Shift in Demand

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Economic Analysis
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Economic Analysis
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Peak Renter in Theory
Age 37
50% Owner
50% Renter

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Economic Analysis
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•Moar broader focus on region

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Economic Analysis
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Outlook: Better Balance

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Economic Analysis
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It’s 5 O’clock Somewhere

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Economic Analysis
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joshua.lehner@oregon.gov
(503) 378-4052
www.OregonEconomicAnalysis.com
@OR_EconAnalysis
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