Despite continued strength in ecommerce spending this year, the 2019 Holiday Season will be challenging. The combination of greater economic headwinds and a highly compressed holiday calendar will make strong growth harder to come by. In this Meet the Analyst webinar, eMarketer principal analyst Andrew Lipsman reveals our latest forecast numbers for total retail, ecommerce and mcommerce sales, and growth for the 2019 holiday season. Join this webinar to learn: A breakdown of eMarketer’s holiday shopping forecast Unique shopping-day dynamics for Black Friday and Cyber Monday, and which retailers are best positioned for success Seven key trends that will shape the 2019 holiday season Plus! Whelan Boyd, senior product manager at Optimizely, joins the conversation

2. US Holiday Shopping Forecast:
Seven Key Trends That Will
Shape the Season
Andrew Lipsman
October 2019
Principal Analyst
eMarketer’s Meet the Analyst Webinar

3. © 2019 eMarketer Inc.
eMarketer 2019 Holiday
Forecast

4. © 2019 eMarketer Inc.
We are forecasting the first ever $1 trillion holiday
shopping season
$862
$899
$948
$971
$1,008
$750
$800
$850
$900
$950
$1,000
$1,050
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Holiday Season Total US Retail Sales ($ Billions)

5. © 2019 eMarketer Inc.
eMarketer forecasts 2019 holiday season retail sales to
grow at a healthy—if unspectacular—rate
+3.8%
2019 holiday season*
total US retail sales growth
* November-December time period

6. © 2019 eMarketer Inc.
2019 growth rates mark an uptick from last year’s
surprising dip following two strong years
3.0%
4.2%
2.3%
4.3%
5.4%
2.4%
3.8%
12.3%
14.3% 13.8%
16.4% 16.3%
10.8%
13.2%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Y/Y US Holiday SeasonGrowth Rate by Channel
Total Retail Ecommerce

7. © 2019 eMarketer Inc.
eMarketer’s forecast puts us on the low end of the range
compared with other forecasts
• Deloitte and
AlixPartners
currently have the
most bullish holiday
retail forecasts.
• Deloitte is also on
the top end for
ecommerce growth.
Source Total Retail Ecommerce
NRF 3.8-4.2% 11-14%
Deloitte 4.5-5% 14-18%
Coresight
Research
4.0% n/a
AlixPartners 4.4-5.3% n/a
Forrester n/a 12.7%
Salesforce n/a 13.0%
Comparative Estimates
Holiday Retail and Ecommerce Forecasts

8. © 2019 eMarketer Inc.
Macroeconomic and seasonal factors affecting our 2019
holiday season forecast are a mixed bag
• Consumer spending trends
remain solid
• Unemployment at record lows
• Sentiment remains high
• Stock market near highs
• Gas prices kept in check
• Favorable comps vs. 2018
• Tariffs and trade wars
• Leading indicators on the
decline
• Sentiment and stock market are
more wobbly
• Short season between
Thanksgiving and Christmas
Positive Factors Negative Factors

9. © 2019 eMarketer Inc.
Are tariffs a big issue? A majority of consumers will be
keeping a close eye on prices
• 54% of US internet
users are concerned
about the impact of
tariffs–2x that of
those who aren’t
concerned

10. © 2019 eMarketer Inc.
Mobile is by far the fastest growing retail commerce
channel
2.5%
4.3%
25.1%
Brick-and-Mortar Desktop
Ecommerce
Mobile Commerce
Holiday Season 2019 US Sales Growth
by Channel
• Mcommerce is
expected to grow
about 6x that of
desktop ecommerce
and 10x that of
brick-and-mortar

11. © 2019 eMarketer Inc.
Mcommerce will approach half of all ecommerce dollars
this season
19.7% 23.0% 27.4% 32.9% 38.1% 43.0% 47.5%
80.3% 77.0% 72.6% 67.1% 61.9% 57.0% 52.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
US Holiday Ecommerce Share by Platform
Mobile Commerce Desktop Ecommerce

12. © 2019 eMarketer Inc.
Although a small slice of retail holidays sales, mobile
has a disproportionate impact on overall growth
86.6%
57.2%
7.1%
7.9%
6.4%
34.9%
% of Sales % Growth Contribution
US Holiday Season Sales by Channel
Mobile
Desktop
In-Store

13. © 2019 eMarketer Inc.
Thanksgiving, Black Friday
and Cyber Monday

14. © 2019 eMarketer Inc.
The holiday calendar goes from 32 days to 26 days
between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
22 23 24
25 26 27 28 29 30 1
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15
16 17 18 19 20 21 22
23 24 25
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
28 29 30
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8 9 10 11 12 13 14
15 16 17 18 19 20 21
22 23 24 25
2018 2019

15. © 2019 eMarketer Inc.
Shoppers say they’ll begin searching for deals earlier,
but that doesn’t always happen
• Shoppers say they will make
earlier holiday purchases.
• But only 1 in 3 consumers is
even aware of the short
calendar.

16. © 2019 eMarketer Inc.
The suggestion that ‘promotional creep’ is making
shopping holidays less important is not true
• The key holiday shopping
days keep getting more
important.
• Comscore data shows that the
Cyber Six period
(Thanksgiving through Cyber
Tuesday) keeps gaining share
of ecommerce holiday sales.

17. © 2019 eMarketer Inc.
Cyber Five have been seeing well above average growth
rates
• According to Adobe,
Thanksgiving (+28.0%)
outperformed season
benchmark (+16.5%) by the
most.
• All other days during Cyber
Five were at least a few points
ahead of pace.

18. © 2019 eMarketer Inc.
Cyber Monday will be the biggest online shopping day in
history—but exactly how big can it get this year?
$10B?

19. © 2019 eMarketer Inc.
Seven Key Trends for the 2019
Holiday Shopping Season

20. © 2019 eMarketer Inc.
No. 1: The shortened calendar will create a shipping
crunch for delivery providers
• Delivery companies
had exceptional on-
time deliveries in
2018–but need to be
careful this year as
the Thanksgiving to
Christmas shopping
period shrinks from
32 to 26 days.

21. © 2019 eMarketer Inc.
No. 2: Fast-and-free shipping benefits consumers and
unlocks ecommerce growth
• Holiday shopping
continues to trend
toward ubiquity of free
shipping.
• The new battleground
will be speed, with
emergence of next-day
and same-day shipping
at Amazon and others.

22. © 2019 eMarketer Inc.
No. 3: The biggest days, and retailers, will get even
bigger
• This season favors scale.
Amazon’s December
dominance should exceed
past years.
• Cyber Monday will explode,
but so too will Black Friday
and Super Saturday, with
the stakes raised for each
individual shopping day.

23. © 2019 eMarketer Inc.
No. 4: Click-and-collect surge will drive late season
gains
• With free shipping
almost universal,
timeliness and package
security become the
most important drivers
for click-and-collect.

24. © 2019 eMarketer Inc.
No. 4 (cont.): Click-and-collect surge will drive late
season gains
• Leading big box retailers
see ecommerce share
gains in the days before
Christmas and should
get an added boost this
year.

25. © 2019 eMarketer Inc.
No. 5: Electronics and apparel will lead holiday
shopping—but new stars will shine
74%
66%
64%
63%
59%
51%
49%
49%
45%
44%
Clothing & Apparel
Toys & Video Games
Food & Liquor
Gift cards/certificates
Shoes & Accessories
Health & Beauty
Electronics
Books
Jewelry
Entertainment
$184
$141
$147
$180
$122
$84
$276
$64
$258
$107
Buyer Penetration Spending per Buyer
Planned Holiday Spending by Category
Source: MiQ

26. © 2019 eMarketer Inc.
No. 6: D2C brands will take a bite out of holiday
stalwarts

27. © 2019 eMarketer Inc.
No. 7: Digital ads move up—earlier in the season and
higher in the funnel

28. © 2019 eMarketer Inc.
Key Takeaways

29. © 2019 eMarketer Inc.
Key Takeaways
• Holiday spending growth will be solid, but unspectacular.
eMarketer’s forecast is on the low-end of the range.
• Mobile will drive almost half of ecommerce and fuel the
continued double-digit growth in online sales.
• The shorter calendar looms over everything and the
fundamentals favor the biggest retailers.
• Marketers will need to be more strategic to stand out amid
the competition this season—but there are opportunities!

30. 1
3 Tips to Capture More Holiday
Demand in 2019
Whelan Boyd Sr. Product Manager,Optimizely

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“We use experimentation and
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Today’s DigitalLeaders Win By
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Search
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Algorithmic
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Logic & Data
The anatomy of an experience
Frontend UI
Copy
Images &
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location & visual treatment
Segment-based offers
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Personalized
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Deals, catalog,
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35. 6
Three ways experimentation + personalizationcan capture demand
Convert more visitors
Run experiments on the checkout page
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Use personalization + recommendations to increase basket size
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36. 7
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