1.
LECTURE L15
THE MOBILE REVOLUTION

2.
757M daily circulations of all newspapers
969M total TV subscribers
1.3B registered cars
1.1B of all types of computers (PC, netbooks...)
1.2B total landline phones
1.5B total TV sets
1.7B total unique holders of credit cards
2.1B total unique holders of bank accounts
3.9B total FM radios in use

3.
Mobile Phones
8,5billion connections
https://gsmaintelligence.com/

4.
5.0billion unique subscribers
https://gsmaintelligence.com/
Mobile Phones

5.
Basically everybody has a
mobile phone
Source and image: The Independent

6.
There are more mobile
phones in the world than
there are toothbrushes
Mobile Phones

7.
Will grow to 5.7
billion phones by
2020
Image: Nokia
Mobile Phones

8.
Survival

9.
In 2011, there were 48 million
people in the world who
have a mobile phone but do
not have electricity at home
Mobile Phones provide safety
Cisco, January 2011

10.
The History of Communication

11.
Communication
Wars have been won on intelligence and the speed of
communications
Militaries and business community on the forefront on the
development of rapid communication

12.
Communication
Early 19th century the horse dominated
Stage coaches and pony express
The railroads changed this
Then came electricity

13.
From 1820 to 1880 discoveries in radio and electromagnetism
Timeline

14.
An Industrial Revolution
The period 1870-1914
Innovations in the chemical, electric, petroleum and steel industries
Adjacent Possible
Growth period

15.
Electromagnetism and Radio
Foundation for electronic
communications
New markets for communication
Telegraph
Telephone
Wireless Telegraph
Communication

16.
From the Greek words
tele = far and
graphein = write
(símriti)
Later to be called the
“Victorian Internet”
The Telegraph

17.
The Telegraph
Simple device with battery and key for sending electric signals
At the other end was a similar device emitting sound or printing
the signal

18.
Samuel F. B. Morse invented the first practical
telegraph in 1837
Granted a patent 1838
Moore devised a telegraphic code consisting
of dots and dashes
Shorter and longer electric impulse send
down the wire - The Morse Code
Standardized messages
The Telegraph

19.
Invented in 1876
At the time, the telegraph was
dominant
Transferred sound waves with
electric current over wire
Alexander G. Bell
Created the first practical telephone
Based on experiments and
improvements in technology at the
time
The Telegraph

20.
At the dawn of the 20th century, two mediums for communication
were dominant
The telegraph: Became important in the American Civil War
(1861-65), dominated by Western Union
The telephone: Dominant technology with the growth of Bell
Both these technologies had one problem: they were wire-based
History

21.
Guglielmo Marconi saw an opportunity
in wireless communication
Studied physics at the University
of Bologna
Several experiments in 1894 in
Bologna, Italy
Marconi’s goal was to use his
knowledge developed in telephony
Wireless Telegraph

22.
Marconi was improving the telegraph
“Spark Transmitter” where signals could represent the Morse code
Potential market:
Maritime market – British Royal Navy
Transatlantic communication
Wireless Telegraph

23.
Many scientists were happy to point out flaws in Marconi’s
inventions
Doubts that wireless had any application
Limitations – radios worded on fixed frequency
Security – anyone could listen in
The telegraph was initially 20 times faster
Cable companies showed no interest in wireless
Skepticism and Competition

24.
Wireless Telegraph was popular in the press
Many companies competed for stock funding
Resulted in Stock inflations - “The Wireless Telegraph bubble”
Sceptic voices started to respond
Series of articles in Success Magazine,
“Fools and their money”
appeared 1907
The Wireless Telegraph Bubble

25.
No regulations controlled the airwaves
The sinking of RMS Titanic prompted governments to set
international standards of communication
The Marconi operator on the Titanic sent “C.Q.D”
C.Q. meant attention, D was for Distress
SOS is ... - - - ...
Government Regulation

26.
Around 1940 ideas for wireless communication were established
It was not until the development of microchips and technology for
building devices, that wireless communication became
practical for individuals
Rules and cautiousness were to delay the progress
Also investments in land based systems
Wireless Communication

27.
Wireless Communication
Wireless communication started early 20th century
Wireless radio was important in WWII
Many innovations such as spread spectrum and frequency hopping

28.
Hedwig Eva Maria Kiesler
1913-2000
"Films have a certain place in a
certain time period. Technology is
forever”
- Hedy Lamarr

29.
Wireless Communication
After the war, use of wireless was
restricted to certain profession (police,
military, taxis)
Not public solutions
The ideas for mobile radio networks
were developed in the 1940s
Area of radio cells – Cellular network

30.
Adjacent Possible
TECHNICAL
Big
Limited
Expensive
CULTURAL
Political
Commercial

31.
The Digital Revolution
The enabling technologies - adjacent possible

32.
The First Cell phone (1973)
Name: Motorola Dyna-Tac
Size: 9 x 5 x 1.75 inches
Weight: 2.5 pounds
Display: None
Number of Circuit Boards: 30
Talk time: 35 minutes
Recharge Time: 10 hours
Features: Talk, listen, dial
Early Systems

33.
Technical Improvements
Microchip
Digital Signal Processor
Mobile phones became practical in the 1980s

34.
Cellular Networks
Radio network made up of radio
cells
Tower and base
Mobile Telephone Switching Office
MTSO

35.
▪ Mobile phones provide safety
▪ The most common device of all
▪ Mobile phones are not practical until 1980s due to size of
technology – Adjacent Possible
▪ The invention of the microchip played crucial role in the
development of cell phones
Lessons Learned: Cellular Phones

36.
1G Analog

37.
1G Analog
1980s
Voice only
NMT, AMPS, FDMA

38.
1G Analog
Early systems were in Bahrain, US, Japan and in the Nordic countries
First international system
was NMT in the Nordic
Frequency Division
Multiple Access - FDMA

39.
1G Analog
NMT in Nordics
AMPS in the US
TACS in UK
C-Nets in West Germany
Radiocom 2000 in France
RTMI/RTMS in Italy

40.
Characteristics
Mobira Talkman
frá Nokia
Early users
1G Analog
Big
Expensive
Limited
Business users
Field users

41.
Multiple standards – roaming is a problem
In the US this is not a problem
1G Analog

42.
European countries decide to define
common standard – digital
Work on a Global System for Mobile
Communication (GSM) starts 1982
1G Analog

43.
2G Digital

44.
1990s
Voice and data
9.6 – 14.4 Kbps
GSM, TDMA
Downloading 3 min. MP3 song: 31-41 min.
2G Digital

45.
Digital mobile phones appear in early 90s
GMS takes off in 1991 –
unites Europe
Time Division Multiple
Access – TDMA
2G Digital

46.
2G Digital
US was slow in adopting 2G because roaming worked well
Digital did not add enough over analog
Texting and SIM cards was not known

47.
GMS

48.
GMS
Global System for Mobile Communication
Built on TDMA – Digital
Three times the capacity of analog, encryption, texting, SIM cards

49.
Texting
Short Message System allowed 160 letters
Became an accidental killer app –
messages, chat, ring tones
First message sent 03.12.1992:
“Merry Christmas”

50.
▪ Cars became the first platform for phones
▪ First phones are analog
▪ Multiple standard – each country invents its own
– Problem with standards (history repeats itself?)
▪ Roaming problems in Europe call for a standard
▪ Digital standard developed in Europe, G2
▪ US does not have roaming problems and gets stuck in G1
Lessons Learned: Cellular Phones

51.
3G Packet Switching

52.
Mobile networks and the Internet start to
converge
1G and 2G are circuit switched – fine for voice
The Internet is packet-switched
3G Packet Switching

53.
2000s
More data
128+ Kbps
GPSR, EDGE, UMTS, CDMA
Mobile networks and the Internet start to
converge
Downloading 3 min. MP3 song:
11 sec. – 1,5 min.
3G Packet Switching

54.
More bandwidth, more applications
Email, Images, music, movies, streaming
Based on Code Division
Multiple Access – CDMA
3G Packet Switching

55.
3G Solutions
Messages Browsing Apps (J2ME)

56.
Built with limitations
Screen size, bandwidth restrictions
Input limited – one-handed keyboard
Limited memory, battery life
Fragmentation nightmare
Mobile web was limited, bad version of the web
3G Solutions

57.
Then, in 2007, the world changed

58.
Copyright © 2011, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

59.
How does the
competition
respond?
The Arrogance of the Present

60.
Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO

61.
iPhone hit the market in June 2007

62.
Ok, let’s check the facts
five years later

63.
http://www.businessinsider.com/iphone-bigger-than-microsoft-2012-2

64.
iPhone

65.
Copyright © 2011, Ólafur
Andri Ragnarsson
The
iPhone
Effect

66.
Touch screen

67.
Industrial strength
desktop quality OS

68.
Software and User
interface

69.
Platform for Apps

70.
180 billion apps downloaded (2017)

71.
App market revenue $88 billion in 2016

72.
Smartphone Market

73.
Smartphone Market

74.
Source: Mary Meeker Slide Deck
Smartphone Market

75.
Mobile vs. Desktop
Source: Morgan Stanley

76.
Source: Morgan Stanley
Mobile vs. Desktop

77.
Key Trends
Mobile became important in
2010 and will be a revenue
opportunity going forward

78.
Source: Heavy Reading
Any consumer
business that ignores the smartphone, will likely
become irrelevant

79.
The end of the Unconnected
Source: http://ben-evans.com/

80.
Next
Internet of Things