New Technology 2017 L04 Exponential World
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For the most time of human history, life was local and linear. Local in the way that anything that happened was close by, a least within a walking distance. Linear in the way that your life was the same as your parents and your children. Nothing changed. Just like the evolution of man, technology improvements follow an evolutionary progress. New ideas or products are to begin with immature and fragile with slow improvements. Then the progress accelerates until the products become mature and taken for granted. Then the cycle repeats and a new layer of technology is added to the previous. This process is exponential. One such observation of exponential is Moore’s Law. We will explore what exponential means. We look at Moore´s law and The Law of the Accelerating returns.
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New Technology 2017 L04 Exponential World
- 2. “Everything that can be invented has been invented” - Purportedly said by Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents, 1899
- 4. 1899
- 5. Alternating Current Power Plant at World's Fair, Chicago, 1893.
- 6. TECHNOLOGY AT THE DAWN OF THE 20TH CENTURY
- 7. Now explain to someone technology today
- 8. TECHNOLOGY AT THE DAWN OF THE 21ST CENTURY
- 9. OUR VIEW ON TECHNOLOGY IS VERY CONTEMPORARY
- 10. Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic - Arthur C. Clark’s 3rd Law
- 11. CENTURY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Radio Messages Airplanes Ice lolly Ford model T Talking pictures Zipper Stainless steel Tanks Penicillin FM Radio Computers Nuclear fission Ballistic missile Transistor Atom bomb Solar battery PC Integrated circuit Video game consoles GUIs TV ARPANET Laser Altair CD-ROM Mosaic DVD WWW Internet VCR Digital cameras Satellites Mircochip
- 12. “He was the pre-eminent scientist in a century dominated by science. The touchstones of the era — the Bomb, the Big Bang, quantum physics and electronics — all bear his imprint.”
- 13. special theory of relativity model of the atom discovery of the electron theory of continental drift nuclear chain reaction discovery of the positron, neutron big bang theory quantum theory uncertainty principle
- 17. Mainframe 1947 Minicomputer 1965 PC 1981 1995 Internet Smartphone 2007 Waves of technologies
- 18. Product Development Products that are built based on older technologies follow a specific path from initial idea to a mature stable product
- 19. The S-curve Based on the notion of the Technical Life Cycle Improvements in performance varies throughout the life of the technology
- 20. Improvements in performance varies throughout the life of the technology Problem is that people in the R&D phase may not be right in the growth phase The S-curve
- 21. Exponential trends can be composed of a sequence of S- curves where each curve is faster The S-curve
- 22. Exponential trends can be composed of a sequence of S- curves where each curve is faster The S-curve
- 23. Technology Life Cycle Describes the commercial gain of a product through the expense of research and development phase, and the financial return during its "vital life"
- 24. In the early days The innovators and technology enthusiasts drive the market They demand technology Small percentage of the market In the later days The pragmatists and conservatives dominate; they want solutions and convenience The big market Technology Life Cycle
- 26. IBM System/360 360/20 with 24K of memory Computers in 1964
- 27. Transistor, 1947 Vacuum tube, 1904 THE DIGITAL REVOLUTION
- 29. Transistor, 1947 Integrated circuit, 1959 Intel 4004, 1971 Vacuum tube, 1904 THE DIGITAL REVOLUTION
- 30. Gordon Moore published an article in 1965 called “Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits”
- 31. Number of transistors on an integrated circuit will double in about 18-24 months Moore’s Law
- 32. Number of transistors on an integrated circuit will double in about 18-24 months Moore’s Law
- 37. 1977 Apple II $1,298 4000 bytes memory Motorola 6502 1MHz 2007 iMac 17-inch $1,199 1GB memory Intel 2.0GHz 30 years of product improvements
- 38. iPad 2 as fast as Cray 2 supercomputer, fraction of the size Read more: http://www.electronista.com/articles/11/05/10/ipad.2.benches.as.fast.as.cray.2.from.1985/#ixzz1jdOS0Es4 Cray 2 1985 Apple iPad 2 2011 30 years of product improvements
- 39. Slow growth in the beginning than accelerates Exponential Growth
- 41. IF PRODUCT PERFORMANCE DOUBLES EVERY YEAR IN 10 YEARS WE HAVE 1,000 FOLD INCREASE IN PERFOMANCE IN 30 YEARS WE HAVE 1,000,000,000 FOLD INCREASE IN PERFOMANCE
- 42. Flickr picture by spwelton SECOND HALF OF THE CHESSBOARD
- 43. The Legend of the Ambalappuzha Paal Payasam
- 45. The total amount of rice required to fill a 64- squared chess board is (2^ (64) - 1), which is equal to 18446744073709551615 grains 460 billion tons
- 46. Number of transistors on an integrated circuit will double in about 18-24 months Moore’s Law
- 48. COMPUTERS WILL BE FASTER
- 49. COMPUTERS WILL BE SMALLER
- 50. COMPUTERS WILL BE CHEAPER
- 51. THINGS THAT ONCE WHERE IMPOSSIBLE BECOME POSSIBLE
- 54. From a 1946 Comic strip to CES 2009
- 56. And from 2009 to 2014
- 58. ANY NEW TECHNOLOGY THAT COMES TO THE MARKET IS LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST 10 YEARS OLD
- 59. Source: http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/jan2008/ id2008012_297369.htm Bill Buxton’s Long nose of Innovation The Long Nose of Innovation
- 60. Growth of Technology Evolutionary processes – both biology and technology, tend to a c c e l e r a t e
- 61. Ray Kurzweil on how technology will transform us (from TED.com)
- 63. PLANS USUALLY ASUME LINAR GROWTH
- 64. DESIGN PRODUCTS WITH TECHNOLOGY OF THE FUTURE IN MIND
- 65. TECHNOLOGICAL PREDICTIONS ARE USUALLY RIGHT, JUST WRONG IN TIME
- 66. MOST PRODUCTS FAIL BECAUSE ALL THE ENABLING FACTORS ARE IN PLACE WHEN NEEDED
- 67. The Law of Accelerating Returns Evolution applies positive feedback in that the more capable methods resulting from one stage of evolutionary progress are used to create the next stage. As a result, the rate of progress of an evolutionary process increases exponentially over time.
- 68. “An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common- sense ‘intuitive linear’ view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate).” - Ray Kurzweil
- 74. Working in an exponential industry with a liner view is deadly Disruption
- 75. Peter Diamandis, Zeitgeist 2012
- 77. Finance Healthcare Retail Transportation Education ? Any industry
- 78. Disruptive stress or opportunity Growth of technology Our view of the world
- 79. DISRUPTIVE STRESS TECHNOLOGY IS CAUSING PROBLEMS ESTABLISHED COMPANIES ARE THREATENED BUSINESS MODELS BECOME IRRELEVANT LAWS BECOME USELESS
- 80. DISRUPTIVE OPPURTINTY NEVER BEFORE IN HISTORY HAS SOME MUCH OPPORTUNITY BE AVAILABLE TO SO MANY PEOPLE
- 81. Is this evolution of technology good?
- 82. Technology is neither good nor bad; nor is it neutral Kranzberg’s 1. law of technology
- 83. Why did smartwatches appear in 2014 when the idea came in the 50s QUESTION