For the most time of human history, life was local and linear. Local in the way that anything that happened was close by, a least within a walking distance. Linear in the way that your life was the same as your parents and your children. Nothing ever changed.
Just like the evolution of man, technology improvements follow an evolutionary progress. New ideas or products are to begin with immature and fragile with slow improvements. Then the progress accelerates until the products become mature and taken for granted. Then the cycle repeats and a new layer of technology is added to the previous. This process is exponential. One such observation of exponential is Moore’s Law.
We will explore what exponential means. We look at Moore´s law and The Law of the Accelerating returns.
25. Century of Science and Technology
Radio
Messages
Airplanes
Ice lolly
Ford
model T
Talking
pictures
Zipper
Stainless
steel
Tanks
Penicillin
FM Radio
Computers
Nuclear
fission
Ballistic
missile
Transistor
Atom
bomb
Solar
battery
PC
Integrated
circuit
Video
game
consoles
GUIs
TV
ARPANET
Laser
Altair
CD-ROM
Mosaic
DVD
WWW
Internet
VCR
Digital
cameras
Satellites
Mircochip
26. “He was the pre-eminent scientist
in a century dominated by science.
The touchstones of the era — the
Bomb, the Big Bang, quantum
physics and electronics — all bear
his imprint.”
27. special theory of relativity
model of the atom
discovery of the electron
theory of continental drift
nuclear chain reaction
discovery of the positron, neutron
big bang theory
quantum theory
uncertainty principle
35. Gordon Moore
published an article
in 1965 called
“Cramming More
Components onto
Integrated Circuits”
Cramming Components
36. Number of transistors on
an integrated circuit will double
in about 18-24 months
Moore’s Law
37. Number of transistors on
an integrated circuit will double
in about 18-24 months
Moore’s Law
38.
39. If product performance double every year:
Moore’s Law
In 10 years we have 1,000 fold increase in performance
In 30 years we have 1,000,000,000 fold increase in
performance
51. Slow growth in the beginning
than accelerates
Which means we overestimate short term
potential and underestimate long term
potential
Exponential Growth
71. Ray Kurzweil on how technology will
transform us (from TED.com)
72.
73. Plans usually assume linear growth
Design product with technology of the future in mind
Techology Predictions are usually right, just wrong in time
Most products fail becase all the enabling factors are
not in place when needed
74. The Law of Accelerating Returns
Evolution applies positive feedback in that the more
capable methods resulting from one stage of
evolutionary progress are used to create the next
stage.
As a result, the rate of progress of an evolutionary
process increases exponentially over time.
75. “An analysis of the history of technology
shows that technological change is
exponential, contrary to the common-sense
‘intuitive linear’ view. So we won't
experience 100 years of progress in the
21st century -- it will be more like 20,000
years of progress
(at today's rate).”
- Ray Kurzweil
76.
77.
78.
79.
80.
81. Disruption
Working in an exponential industry with a liner
view is deadly
People in many 20th century traditional
businesses got used to linear mindset and are
now being challenged by new entrants using
exponential digital technologies…