Objective Capital's Precious Metals, Diamonds & Gemstones
Investment Summit 2011
Ironmongers' Hall, City of London
6 April 2011
Speaker: Tim Weir, Wessex Asset Management
7.pdf This presentation captures many uses and the significance of the number...
Investing in gold equities
1. PRECIOUS METALS,
DIAMONDS & GEMSTONES
INVESTMENT SUMMIT
Investing in gold equities
Tim Weir – Investment Director, Wessex Asset Management
IRONMONGERS’ HALL, CITY OF LONDON ● WEDNESDAY, 6 APR 2011
www.ObjectiveCapitalConferences.com
2.
3. WESSEX GOLD FUND
Who are we - Wessex Asset Management Pages 3-5
What are the characteristics of the gold market(s) Pages 6-11
and how can we make money for our investors?
Stock picking in gold equities Pages 12-14
Does it work?
Appendices and disclaimer Pages 15-24
March 11 2
4.
5. Wessex Asset Management
10+ year hedge fund track record co-managing the
Wessex Asia Pacific Fund (WAPF).
Tim Weir Wessex Natural Resources Fund manager since 2004
launch.
Chief Executive,
Investment Director Wessex Gold Fund manager since 2007 launch
Economist by training
Fund Manager:
MA Oxford PPE 1980
Wessex Gold Fund
Wessex Natural Resources Fund AIIMR since 1982
Set up Abbey Commodity and Energy Trust 1982
Head of equities, Swiss Bank Corporation
institutional funds London 1988-1993
Managed SBC’s GoldPortfolio, one of the world’s
biggest gold equity funds, which won the Bopp-Finanz
Swiss mutual fund prize 1990-93
Director of European equities at Nat West
Investment Management 1993-1996
March 11 4
6. Wessex Asset Management
10+ year Asian Hedge Fund track record co-
managing the Wessex Asia Pacific Fund (WAPF)
Peter Chesterfield Co-manager Wessex Natural Resource and Gold
Chairman, funds
Investment Director MSc (Honours) Mining Geology
Exploration Geologist, Project Geologist,
Investment Analyst in ANZ 1979-82
Mining analyst at Prudential in London 1982-84
Managed Abbey’s Commodity and Energy trust
(ACET) and resource portfolios (see appendices).
14 year Asian track record managing Abbey
Life’s Asian Pacific Trust (AAPT) 1985-99.
Responsibility for over $1 billion of assets at
Abbey Life
March 11 5
7. The Gold bull market in US dollars
The gold bull market is not driven just by US$ weakness…
USD
March 11 6
8. Gold Price in Major Currencies
… There is an ongoing gold bull market even in strong currencies
Source: Bloomberg
EURO
not driven just be US$ weakness
AUD
March 11 7
9. Gold is still in a bull market
Strong gold supply / demand fundamentals
1. Real interest rates are still very low or negative
2. Strong consumer demand, increasingly from newly affluent Asians
3. Asian central bank buying – Iran the latest to diversify reserves
4. Perceived as a safe haven in times of financial instability
5. Increased investment demand assisted by launch of ETFs
6. Falling gold mine production (notably South Africa)
Cross-currents
1. Gold normally benefits from US$ weakness and rate cuts
2. Gold as each-way bet on inflation and deflation risks
3. Can lose out tactically on FX moves and liquidity drying-up
4. End of QE, high interest rates and end of inflation fears would signal end of gold
bull market
Equities
1. Equities have ‘optionality’ and are currently cheap relative to bullion
March 11 8
10. Gold market s – the new geography
North America: Valuation premium Russia & FSU: Some opportunities but
justified by lower political risk. major expropriation risk.
Some production expansion from China: World’s biggest producer, but
reviving older mines. companies are fairly opaque.
South America: Some
interesting assets,
mostly owned by North
American majors.
South Africa: Increasing depth, power supply issues Australia: Most pure Oz gold
and falling grades make cost control very difficult. plays are small (except
Politics a worry. Newcrest). Oz-listed stocks
West Africa: The new frontier. Exciting growth eg producing from Asia, Africa.
Tasiast mega-mine. Politics has improved significantly.
March 11 9
11. Defining a profitable niche 1
Sustainable excess returns can be generated by a L/S gold equity
fund because of persistent characteristics in the gold market
Gold is in a long-term bull market, but one characterized by high
volatility and enormous stock divergence – how to profit from this?
Gold equities have leverage to bullion through operating gearing
and enhancing the value of reserves in the ground
Commodity equities have accessible stock alpha due to the generally
poor quality of research. Analysts tend to be relatively
inexperienced. Good stock pickers should be able to beat a gold
equity index or ETF.
Wessex principals have been meeting mine managers, going
underground and analyzing gold mines since early 1980s. No special
magic, just hard work and knowledge which cannot be replicated in
front of Bloomberg screens
March 11 10
12. Defining a profitable niche 2
A long/short gold equity fund offers differentiated value –
not replicated by CTAs, long-only funds or holding physical gold
A good stock picker can add more value in a long/short fund than
in a long-only vehicle – the gross can be higher, the net can be
higher or lower, shorts can be used for alpha or for protection
Gold shares should do better than bullion in a bull market
CTAs are better placed for protecting downside and making
money in bear markets, but will normally not give full exposure
in a bull market
Value can be added by timely exposure to silver, diamonds and
PGM equities
March 11 11
13. Investment Philosophy
Resource markets Ideas before numbers – correlations are unstable
(no mechanistic data mining )
Stereoscopic investment Dynamic equilibrium between bottom-up and top-
down
Diversification By strategy and theme, reduces risk and volatility.
More arbitrage when unclear on directional bets
Style chameleon Value, growth and momentum at appropriate times
Risk Take only the risk we want, understand and can
turn into value
Technical analysis/charts Used to assist in timing
March 11 12
14. WGF trade examples: AUSGOLD
A new gold province in Western Australia?
March 11 13
15. WGF trade examples: PETRA DIAMONDS
Ex-De Beers management cutting costs and innovating in diamonds in southern Africa
March 11 14
16. WNRF Trade examples 1:
3
Uncertainty over reserve replacement
and company cash balance
Short trade – Sons of Gwalia
2 5
.
(Gold, Australia):
2
Stock trading on a very
high valuation despite 0
09 0
/ 6 2
/ 0 0 4
our concerns that the
balance sheet remained 2
- 0
1 5
.
BUY
stretched.
4
-
-37
0
SELL
The hedge book was
1
Cumulative (1000's
progressively getting Shares) Delisted
further into the red, 6
- 0
while reserves were not -67
05
.
-65
being replaced. 8
- 0
-86
RESULT: company 1
- 0 0
0
announced profit- -100
Crossed with Morgan Stnley after delisting,
warning in July 2004 and short covered at 0.01
entered administration in
1
- 2 0
August.
March 11 Source: Bloomberg,WAM 15
17. Risk Parameters
250% 15%
WNRF Market Cap of Precious Exposures
WGFT Long / Short Exposure History Snapshot
200%
150%
100% 5%
50%
0%
Source, Definition : WAM 31st May 2006
-50% -5%
May-04 Nov-04 May-05 Nov-05 May-06 Nov-06 May-07 Large <5bn Mid<1bn Small<300 Commodity
WGFT = Wessex Gold Fund THEORETICAL = using actual precious metal sector weightings of the Wessex Natural Resource Fund (WNRF) May 2004 to July 2007 and
scaling the weightings up such that the average net position over the life of the WGFT would have been 100% net in these sectors. Average precious metal sector weight in
WNRF to date has been 23% and therefore the attribution has been scaled up by a constant factor of 1/23%.
Source:WAM
March 11 16
18. Summary
We can make very significant money in the continuing gold bull
market.
Good stock picking and market timing can turn this into a longer-term
profitable hedge fund opportunity
Wessex team has a strong fund track record and portfolio managers
who are very experienced in gold markets
A dedicated L/S gold fund, run more aggressively in terms of the net
and stock concentration can achieve very strong returns
March 11 17
19. WGF performance versus gold bullion and gold shares
WGF Outperformed Gold Shares Index by 12% in 2010
250
200
150
100
50
-
AMEX GOLD BUGS INDEX (^HUI) Wessex Gold Fund (WGF) Gold Bullion
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
WGF 3.7% -27.5% 35.5% 45.3% -6.8%
HUI 4.2% -26.1% 42.2% 33.4% -1.6%
March 11 18
20. WESSEX GOLD FUND
‘A’ J F M A M J J A S O N D YTD
2007 5.9% -4.8% 3.1% 3.7%
2008 5.2% 10.3% -9.6% -11.1% 9.6% 2.1% -8.5% -12.8% -5.8% -39.5% 27.2% 20.5% -27.5%
2009 -3.0% 0.3% 9.2% -3.1% 16.2% -8.7% 1.5% 1.5% 10.5% -5.2% 18.3% -2.9% 35.5%
2010 -7.5% 4.1% 0.9% 5.2% -2.5% 2.7% -1.8% 6.0% 13.0% 4.9% 1.2% 13.7% 45.3%
2011 -9.2% 2.6% -6.8%
Reported performance is net of fees. Performance numbers shown are records of past performance and as such do not guarantee or provide a guide to future performance.
21. Wessex Asset Management
Peter Chesterfield Chairman and Investment Director
Tim Weir CEO and Investment Director
Gabrielle Knights Fund Manager
Anna Donald Fund Manager
Brendan Long Consultant, hydrocarbons
Sarah Martin Associate Director, Operations
Nicola Dady Middle Office Executive
Douglas Sloane Marketing Director
George Vere-Laurie Consultant, risk and business development
Mishcon De Reya WAM Legal Counsel
Throgmorton WAM Accounting
IMS Consulting Compliance Consultants
Treken Technology Support
March 11 2020
22. Fund Service Providers
Investment Manager Wessex Asset Management Ltd.
8 Queen Street
London WIJ 5PD
Prime Broker / Custodian Morgan Stanley
25 Cabot Square, Canary Wharf
London E14 4QA
Auditor Ernst & Young
Harcourt Centre, Harcourt Street
Dublin 2, Ireland
Administrator BNY Mellon Alternative Investment Services
Unit D1, Balmoral Estate, Kells Road
Navan, Co. Meath, Ireland
Legal Counsel Mishcon De Reya
Summit House, 12 Red Lion Square
London, WC!R 4QD
Legal Counsel (offshore) Maples and Calder
PO Box 309, Georgetown
Cayman Islands
March 11 21
23. Fund Overview
Minimum Investment 500,000 USD
Subscriptions Monthly
Redemptions Monthly 30 calendar day notice
Management Fee 1.5% Share Class A, 1% Share Class B
Incentive Fee 20% Share Class A 15% Share Class B
Other Fees None
High Water Mark Yes
Lockup None Share Class A ,12 months Share Class B
Early Redemption Fee None
Benchmark HUI Gold Bugs Index, XAU Gold and Silver Index in US$
Volatility Benchmark HUI Gold Bugs Index
Strategy Long/Short Gold and Precious Metals Equities
Region Global
Domicile Cayman Islands
Listing Irish Stock Exchange
Target Return 25% compounded per annum
Target Volatility none
March 11 22
24. Abbey Commodity & Energy Trust Limited (ACET)
Offer to Offer Price Basis (Net Income Reinvested) Current Valueof £100 Invested over various periods to 1st October 1987
Fund 12 Months 36 Months 60 Months 84 Months 120 Months
FT GOLD MINES 142.0 80.7 127.5 89.7 310.1
FTA OILS 175.7 227.7 420.0 375.7 669.2
PLND SVNGS COMMY & ENERGY 184.6 178.9 267.7 205.6 495.2
ABBEY COMMODITY & ENERGY 233.7 1 272.0 2 409.7 1
ALLIED DUNBAR MET MIN COM 178.1 17 169.5 17 248.7 11 237.0 3 481.4 6
ACET in Planned BG ENERGY
COUNTY ENERGY
167.8
135.2
23
28
268.0
122.5
3
24 176.4 16
EFM RESOURCES 162.4 25 148.8 20
Savings Magazine F&C NATURAL RESOURCES
GARTMORE COMMODITY
195.8
177.5
10
18
179.4
183.2
13
12 305.6 4 232.6 4 616.7 3
GARTMORE GOLD SHARE 197.2 9 176.5 16
GARTMORE OIL & ENERGY 168.7 21 159.6 19 251.5 10
GOVERTT GOLD & MINERALS 227.3 2 206.8 6
Managed by Tim Weir and HENDERSON GLOBAL RESCRCS 201.7 7 193.0 8 275.3 8 242.4 2 676.6 1
HENDERSON GOLD 203.9 5
Peter Chesterfield HILL SAMUEL NATURL RESRCS 198.5 8 210.3 5 300.6 5
LEGAL & GENERAL NAT RESOR 201.9 6
Ranked 1st for 12mths LLOYDS BK ENERGY INTERNTL 141.9 27 143.6 22 213.2 15
Ranked 2nd for 36mths M&G COMMODITY & GENERAL 189.6 13 184.6 11 324.4 3 270.4 1 638.8 2
M&G GOLD & GENERAL 183.7 16 191.0 9
Ranked 1st for 60mths MIDLAND BK COMMODITY
MIM BRIT COMMODITY SHARE
171.4
167.8
20
22
177.3
178.7
15
14
262.9
247.9
9
12
188.9
160.7
7
9
468.5
401.1
7
8
MIM BRIT GOLD 186.0 15 239.6 4
WIM BRIT UNIVERSAL ENERGY 149.2 26 92.1 25 146.8 17 84.5 10 223.5 10
NM SCHRODER GOLD 204.3 4 197.0 7
S&P COMMODITY SHARE 186.2 14 190.5 10 277.8 6 220.8 6 528.4 4
S&P ENERGY INDUSTRIES 164.1 24 141.9 23 220.0 14 162.3 8 389.4 9
S&P EXPLORATION 217.5 3 293.1 1 400.0 2
TARGET COMMODITY 189.7 12 146.5 21 239.5 13 224.3 5 516.2 5
TARGET GOLD 174.7 19 165.7 18 275.6 7
TSB NATURAL RESOURCES 192.9 11
28 FUNDS 25 FUNDS 17 FUNDS 10 FUNDS 10 FUNDS
TRUST AVERAGE 184.6 185.2 269.2 202.4 494.1
Source: Planned Savings Magazine UK
March 11 23
25. DISCLAIMER
Important Notice:
The Wessex Gold Fund THEORETICAL (WGFT) should be viewed solely as a calculation of the precious metal sector performance of the
Wessex Natural Resource Fund (WNRF) whilst as a variable part of the WNRF portfolio. The actual performance of the proposed Wessex Gold
Fund could and probably will have different characteristics. These differences include but are not limited to regional, concentration, gross and
fund focus.
This document is intended solely for publication and distribution to the recipient and may not be passed on or disclosed to any other person.
This document is for information only and is not an offer to sell or an invitation to buy shares in the Wessex Gold Fund. In particular, it does
not constitute an offer or solicitation in any jurisdiction where it is unlawful or where the person making the offer or solicitation is not qualified
to do so or the recipient may not lawfully receive any such offer or solicitation. It is the responsibility of any person in possession of this
document to inform themselves of, and to observe, all applicable laws and regulations of relevant jurisdictions.The information and any
opinions contained herein have been obtained from or are based on sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy cannot be
guaranteed. No responsibility can be accepted for any consequential loss from this information. Prospective investors should review the
prospectus for the WGF before making an investment decision and should rely only on the information contained in the prospectus. Prospective
investors should also inform themselves, and should take appropriate advice, on the legal requirements and as to the possible tax
consequences, foreign exchange restrictions or exchange control requirements that they may encounter under the laws of the countries of their
citizenship, residence or domicile and that may be relevant to the subscription, purchase, holding, exchange, redemption or disposal of any
investments.
The value of investments and income derived therefrom can decrease as well as increase (this may be partly due to exchange rate fluctuations
in investments that have an exposure to currencies other than the base currency of the Fund). Performance numbers shown are records of past
performance and as such do not guarantee future performance. Regulated in the United Kingdom by FSA.
This document is issued by Wessex Asset Management Limited. The Wessex Gold Fund (the ‘fund’) is defined as an' Unregulated Collective
Investment Scheme’ (‘UCIS’) and the promotion of a UCIS either within the UK or from the UK is severely restricted by statute. Consequently,
this document is only made available to Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties as defined by the FSA and to persons falling within
the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Promotion of Collective Investment Schemes) (Exemptions) Order 2001. Shares in the fund
should only be purchased by persons with professional experience of participating in unregulated schemes and any other person who receives
this document should not rely upon it.
March 11 24
26. LONDON OFFICE BOURNEMOUTH OFFICE Douglas Sloane
Tel: 44 (0) 207 059 2895 Tel: 44 (0) 1 202 200 930 Director of Marketing
Fax: 44 (0) 207 059 2901 Fax: 44 (0) 1 202 200 931 douglassloane@wessexam.co.uk
8 Queen Street Lorne Park House, Lorne Park Road 44 (0) 207 659 2893
London WIJ 5PD Bournemouth BH1 1JJ www.wessexam.co.uk
Authorized and regulated by the FSA and registered with the SEC